AFC Standings, schedules, & Rooting Interests FINAL 1/7/24 BILLS 2 Seed!

[Richard Noggin]

Really gotta start with the division. Bills are a game-and-a-half back, but I think the Dolphins lose twice before our week 18 showdown (and the Bills lose maybe once). That means the final game decides the AFCE. I don't know what tiebreakers will do to the loser of that game. So the focus is on winning out (or losing only once more, more likely...just not to the Dolphins) and being a top-4 AFC division winner. 

 

Winning out obviously puts the Bills in great position to enter the postseason tournament as a top-3 or 4 seed. Losing only one (this week being that one loss) still trends towards a playoff berth. Losing twice probably shuts that door completely. 

[Richard Noggin]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

A loss to only the Cowboys and they likely win the division with the Dolphins having to play the Cowboys and Ravens still and that would also mean a loss to us...Dolphins have faded hard in December every year, and have gotten smashed every time they played a good team this year, so to me it's almost a foregone conclusion they are losing both those games. If they are playing the Bills for the division in Week 18, who in their right mind would take Mami in that game based on their track record over, oh, say the last 2 decades.

 

I think this is where our best opportunity lies...Dolphins are likely to lose 1 or 2 of their next 3. If the Bills can win the week 18 matchup, and lose at most one fewer game over the next 3 (meaning 0 or 1 loss, most likely), then they win the division. That means hosting a Wild Card round game against the Dolphins again, probably (or the Browns, Bengals, or Colts). 

 

All comes down to the division, IF they take care of late-season business. Best case scenario.

[strive_for_five_guy]

13 hours ago, Success said:

 

If we run the table, we're in.  I think even 10-7 is 50/50.

 

People are overestimating the teams ahead of us & tied w/ us.  

Just about.  There’s still a very unlikely

scenario we win out, and don’t get in.  Although if Browns lose today, winning out would get us in.

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

and there are equally as many scenarios that we don't.  Those aren't good odds.  When you have to rely on say specific 4 games going exactly your way in any given scenario... that's not good odds.  I'm not talking division winning.  I actually think we win the division but trying to get in as a WC this year is about the same thing as hoping Dalton hits that miracle TD.

It's better than that.  For instance, lets say we lose to the Cowboys and win our final three to finish 10-7.  Even if Miami wins the division by winning two of their next three before losing to us we'd still have a 77% chance of making the playoffs as a WC team according to that NYT simulator.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It's better than that.  For instance, lets say we lose to the Cowboys and win our final three to finish 10-7.  Even if Miami wins the division by winning two of their next three before losing to us we'd still have a 77% chance of making the playoffs as a WC team according to that NYT simulator.

 

I don't put any stock in those type of odds.  Especially when I can use the machine and check for myself.

 

One thing I will say is that if I had to pick one AFC team to lose this week outside of Miami, the Bronco's or Bengals would have been a toss up.  At least one of them lost. We got that going for us at least.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Scott7975

[Drew21PA]

I’m more serious and real excited if we beat the cowboys tonight 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

Right now: 51%

Win today: 71%

Lose today: 33%

Lose today but then win last three: 85%

Win next three but lose in Miami: 66%

Win out: 100% and 85% chance division winner, possibly #2 or #3 seed

[zow2]

Basically if the Bills finish the season 4-0 in.

If they go 3-1 i think they will sneak in somehow.

If they go 2-2 or worse they don’t deserve a playoff berth so don’t sweat it.

[strive_for_five_guy]

41 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

I’m more serious and real excited if we beat the cowboys tonight 

We beat the Cowboys, everyone is on notice that we’re a contender.  Our boys better be ready to step up tonight.

[Donuts and Doritos]

Bills to the 9 seed.

 

Bills win & Houston loss will move Bills to the 8 seed.

 

Miami loss will put the Bills 1 game back in the East.

[BuffaloBillyG]

As it sits today before the Sunday games are played my feeling is the clearest path is through the division. Win out and I think it's ours. Even a loss today and I think we win it. I just don't see Miami beating Dallas and Baltimore, and they may have problems winning today against the Jets. As much as I dislike Tyreek Hill, him being gimpy really increased our odds. On the surface, it seems the annual late season Miami Meltdown is in full swing.

 

The Wild Card, while possible is a pure crap shoot at this point both the amount we lost to AFC teams and the fact that Cincinnati and Denver are still in it and hold those head to head tie breakers.

[DCofNC]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

As it sits today before the Sunday games are played my feeling is the clearest path is through the division. Win out and I think it's ours. Even a loss today and I think we win it. I just don't see Miami beating Dallas and Baltimore, and they may have problems winning today against the Jets. As much as I dislike Tyreek Hill, him being gimpy really increased our odds. On the surface, it seems the annual late season Miami Meltdown is in full swing.

 

The Wild Card, while possible is a pure crap shoot at this point both the amount we lost to AFC teams and the fact that Cincinnati and Denver are still in it and hold those head to head tie breakers.

I believe Cincy will fall off, WRs bailed them out on 2 should be picks today, that won’t keep happening.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, DCofNC said:

I believe Cincy will fall off, WRs bailed them out on 2 should be picks today, that won’t keep happening.

They have the Steelers, Chiefs and Browns left.  I can't see them losing to Pittsburgh. I can't see them beating Kansas City. And Cleveland I think could go either way. 

 

Of course the wacky way this season has gone they could go 0-3 or 3-0 these last 3 weeks. 1-2 over the last 3 seems most plausible to me.

[strive_for_five_guy]

6 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I believe Cincy will fall off, WRs bailed them out on 2 should be picks today, that won’t keep happening.

They should at least lose to KC.  It’d be nice if Pit could knock them off next week too, although that team is looking like a dumpster fire right now.  Maybe they’ll get Pickett back and he’ll make a difference.

[Playoffs?]

I’m thinking we have to win out. 
The wildcard seems like a long shot based on tiebreakers against us. 
And although unpopular opinion, something tells me the dolphins will beat the jets, and one of the cowboys/ravens games. 

[BearNorth]

I think the key is Miami faltering between injuries and their past history in December.

 

Their injury list as of this morning is formidable to say the least.

 

Fish OL is as banged up as any in the league, which could limit the quick passing game.

 

They have a difficult schedule, always have trouble with the Jets, Play two heavyweights in Dallas and at Baltimore, then our Bills in Week 18.

 

Winning out would be helpful for our guys.

 

 

[Stads]

I just went to the New York Times' playoff simulator. Even if we lose to Dallas, we have an 85% chance to make the playoffs with winning the last 3. Today is obviously important for the division but not necessarily the playoffs 

[LABILLBACKER]

36 minutes ago, Stads said:

I just went to the New York Times' playoff simulator. Even if we lose to Dallas, we have an 85% chance to make the playoffs with winning the last 3. Today is obviously important for the division but not necessarily the playoffs 

Yeah I agree. These other clown teams with their backup qbs will start losing. I think the Texans fall today. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

I think the key is Miami faltering between injuries and their past history in December.

 

Their injury list as of this morning is formidable to say the least.

 

Fish OL is as banged up as any in the league, which could limit the quick passing game.

 

They have a difficult schedule, always have trouble with the Jets, Play two heavyweights in Dallas and at Baltimore, then our Bills in Week 18.

 

Winning out would be helpful for our guys.

 

 

Couldn't happen to a nicer group of guys!

[Jrb1979]

57 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yeah I agree. These other clown teams with their backup qbs will start losing. I think the Texans fall today. 

I see Denver and Cleveland both finishing 10-7 due to their schedules left. 1 spot for Bills, Texans and Indy. 

[DCofNC]

10 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

They have the Steelers, Chiefs and Browns left.  I can't see them losing to Pittsburgh. I can't see them beating Kansas City. And Cleveland I think could go either way. 

 

Of course the wacky way this season has gone they could go 0-3 or 3-0 these last 3 weeks. 1-2 over the last 3 seems most plausible to me.

TJ Watt may end the fun of Browning, who knows.

[Donuts and Doritos]

Moved up to 9th. 

 

Need to keep winning & get some help next week.

[Aussie Joe]

Am I right in saying that if Chiefs beat bengals in Week 17, then the Bills win all three games they are in ?

 

Colts and Texans still play each other 

[gonzo1105]

If the Jags lose tonight, they are now in real danger of falling out as well. They have to be careful as both Houston and Indy are right there with them.

 

Still the favorites for sure but they have Baltimore tonight, @ TB who is playing for their division, Carolina(easy W) and @ Tennessee at the end of the season. You would think 3-1 there but I could easily see 2-2 

2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Am I right in saying that if Chiefs beat bengals in Week 17, then the Bills win all three games they are in ?

 

Colts and Texans still play each other 

 

If the Bills win out they wont need any help, they will be in for sure whether as a divisional winner or a WC. If they lose 1 to go 10-7 lets say to Miami, then we need a bunch of different scenarios to play out.

[Punch]

According to the NY Times NFL Playoff simulator, the probability our Bills make the playoffs is at 60%. A Ravens win over Jacksonville increases those odds slightly.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-dal-15=win

 

[Process]

Bengals Texans and Browns all were down multiple scores. All won. Absolute insane levels of bad luck. 

 

Just keep winning. 

[peterpan]

Browns bungles and Texans all with late, improbably comebacks this week.  F me!!! We are finally hitting our stride and can’t catch a break 

[Aussie Joe]

7 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

 

If the Bills win out they wont need any help, they will be in for sure whether as a divisional winner or a WC. If they lose 1 to go 10-7 lets say to Miami, then we need a bunch of different scenarios to play out.

Ok… so from a WC scenario ( let’s assume Miami win the next two and win division) and the Colts, Bengals win out and the Browns win 2 of 3… there will be 4 teams at 11-6 for three wildcards if the Bills win out … 

[pigpen65]

Its outrageous that this team may miss the playoffs this year because of waiting too long to fire Ken Dorsey......he shouldn't have even made it into this season

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Ok… so from a WC scenario ( let’s assume Miami win the next two and win division) and the Colts, Bengals win out and the Browns win 2 of 3… there will be 4 teams at 11-6 for three wildcards if the Bills win out … 

 

I mean in that scenario I suppose its possible the Bills are left out but I'm not sure how the 4 way tiebreakers would work and the likelihood of that all happening is basically slim to none. Cincinnati would have to go into Arrowhead with a backup QB and win. Cincinnati would have to beat Cleveland and have that be Cleveland's only loss. Its just as likely that Cleveland losses their last 3 as anyone. Their @ Houston next week and Cj Stroud will be back, then they play the Jets who most people are chalking up as a win but what if Rodgers gets cleared and actually plays in that game, then they have to play @ Cincinnati to end the season. 

[Charles Romes]

11 hours ago, DCofNC said:

I believe Cincy will fall off, WRs bailed them out on 2 should be picks today, that won’t keep happening.

 
 Hopefully the party will be over soon for Browning.  Seems he’s on the verge of a dobbsian fall. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

We need the chiefs so badly, just in case Miami doesn’t lose until we play them.

 

we need them against the Bengals.

 

the colts could run the table, and the Bengals could, too, if they upend a chiefs’ team they are pretty good at upending.

 

crazy…I don’t want it to be the case, but for the first time I am considering that 11-6 may not get us in.

[Aussie Joe]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

I mean in that scenario I suppose its possible the Bills are left out but I'm not sure how the 4 way tiebreakers would work and the likelihood of that all happening is basically slim to none. Cincinnati would have to go into Arrowhead with a backup QB and win. Cincinnati would have to beat Cleveland and have that be Cleveland's only loss. Its just as likely that Cleveland losses their last 3 as anyone. Their @ Houston next week and Cj Stroud will be back, then they play the Jets who most people are chalking up as a win but what if Rodgers gets cleared and actually plays in that game, then they have to play @ Cincinnati to end the season. 

Ok,,, fair enough … the 4 way tie break would be interesting…

 

I agree it’s unlikely … but still possible … was all I was trying to say,.,hence why I want the Chiefs to beat the Bengals in Week 17 so it won’t matter …. Although admittedly the Dolphins winning the next two probably won’t happen either 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Aussie Joe

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

33 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Am I right in saying that if Chiefs beat bengals in Week 17, then the Bills win all three games they are in ?

 

Colts and Texans still play each other 

 

We will win the division if we win out. No way Miami wins both against Dallas and Baltimore. 

 

The way I look at this game, is that it was huge in the sense that it basically guarantees that the week 18 game is for the division as long as we handle our business against the Chagers and Patriots. Without today's win we would have needed the Dolphins to lose both their upcoming games. Still likely but not near the guarantee of splitting. 

[VW82]

I think Bungles will drop out and Indy and Houston still have to play each other, so that should leave us 7th. But it's so crazy we could go 11-6 and miss. 

[Punch]

If the Bills, Colts and Bengals all win out and the Browns go 2-1 (with the loss coming to Cincy) then the Bills are in.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#lar-wsh-15=win&ari-sf-15=loss&buf-dal-15=win&jax-bal-15=loss&sea-phi-15=loss&lar-no-16=win&pit-cin-16=loss&lac-buf-16=loss&atl-ind-16=loss&ten-sea-16=loss&min-det-16=loss&nyj-wsh-16=loss&car-gb-16=loss&hou-cle-16=loss&tb-jax-16=win&chi-ari-16=win&mia-dal-16=win&den-ne-16=win&kc-lv-16=win&phi-nyg-16=win&sf-bal-16=loss&cle-nyj-17=win&dal-det-17=win&buf-ne-17=win&chi-atl-17=win&ind-lv-17=win&nyg-lar-17=loss&phi-ari-17=win&tb-no-17=win&wsh-sf-17=loss&jax-car-17=win&bal-mia-17=loss&hou-ten-17=win&sea-pit-17=win&den-lac-17=win&kc-cin-17=loss&min-gb-17=loss&cin-cle-18=win&det-min-18=win&gb-chi-18=win&ten-jax-18=loss&ind-hou-18=win&lv-den-18=loss&mia-buf-18=loss&ne-nyj-18=win&no-atl-18=win&nyg-phi-18=loss&ari-sea-18=loss&lac-kc-18=loss&sf-lar-18=win&wsh-dal-18=loss&car-tb-18=loss&bal-pit-18=win

[VaMilBill]

35 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

If the Jags lose tonight, they are now in real danger of falling out as well. They have to be careful as both Houston and Indy are right there with them.

 

Still the favorites for sure but they have Baltimore tonight, @ TB who is playing for their division, Carolina(easy W) and @ Tennessee at the end of the season. You would think 3-1 there but I could easily see 2-2 

 

If the Bills win out they wont need any help, they will be in for sure whether as a divisional winner or a WC. If they lose 1 to go 10-7 lets say to Miami, then we need a bunch of different scenarios to play out.

Are you sure. I thought talking heads are saying we need help to get in

[DrBob806]

12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Ok,,, fair enough … the 4 way tie break would be interesting…

 

I agree it’s unlikely … but still possible … was all I was trying to say,.,hence why I want the Chiefs to beat the Bengals in Week 17 so it won’t matter …. Although admittedly the Dolphins winning the next two probably won’t happen either 

 

 

I suppose there's a slim chance that Miami could lose out & miss the playoffs entirely. Not likely, but possible with their schedule.

[Aussie Joe]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

We will win the division if we win out. No way Miami wins both against Dallas and Baltimore. 

 

The way I look at this game, is that it was huge in the sense that it basically guarantees that the week 18 game is for the division as long as we handle our business against the Chagers and Patriots. Without today's win we would have needed the Dolphins to lose both their upcoming games. Still likely but not near the guarantee of splitting. 

Unlikly Miami wins both …. But it certainly is possible…. Dallas can’t beat good teams away and the Ravens aren’t exactly some type of juggernaut…

 

And yes,, this game and last week were huge for the Bills and it’s pretty likely they will make it if they win out 

2 minutes ago, DrBob806 said:

I suppose there's a slim chance that Miami could lose out & miss the playoffs entirely. Not likely, but possible with their schedule.

Yeah… it’s unlikely … agree with that 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Aussie Joe

[Mikie2times]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

Unlike Miami wins both …. But it certainly is possible…. Dallas can’t beat good teams away and the Ravens aren’t exactly some type of juggernaut…

 

And yes,, this game and last week were huge for the Bills and it’s pretty likely they will make it if they win out 

Yeah… it’s unlikely … agree with that 

The one thing I do like is that Miami / Baltimore game is shaping up for homefield. So Baltimore should be pretty motivated.  Another note, they played one of the better regular season games of 2022 last year. Miami won 42-38 after outscoring Baltimore 28-3 in the 4th quarter.