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Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

Chaos

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Simon Hall of Famer

Simon

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9 hours ago, Mynamemike said:

I’m getting the same feeling about this game as I did the first time we faced Lamar and the Ravens when he first came on the scene.  We ended up shutting him down and set the blueprint for how to beat him.  I expect them to get yards but not let them get touchdowns.  We need to limit the touchdowns and we need to be effective in the red zone on offense,  it’s gonna be a fun game to watch p.

 

I agree with this but don't love the Lamar comparison.

Tua could take 12 concussions this weekend and still have 10x the processing power of Jackson.

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The 9 Isles
The 9 Isles

!@#$ Miami

BuffaloBillyG
BuffaloBillyG

So, we're scoring 73!   In all seriousness, after what Miami just did Im betting a ton of money comes in on them. I'll bet the line is close to even by kickoff.

CountDorkula
CountDorkula

No, don’t ignore it at all. Miami has proven that they are probably the most explosive offenses in the entire league. I don’t care who you’re playing you put up 70.   Miami is a legit threat an

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DaBillsFanSince1973 All Pro

DaBillsFanSince1973

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Posted (edited)

NFL Week 4 picks: Dolphins, Bills meet in huge AFC East clash

nfl-picks week-4

But the game of the weekend has to be the clash of the undefeated and scalding Miami Dolphins against the AFC East rival Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park, New York, a rematch of last season's wild-card showdown – one that Fins QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) missed. Hot as Miami (3-0) is, fresh off a 70-point outburst, the Bills (2-1) are surging, too, winning their past two games by a combined score of 75-13.

 

f73843f9ec13618b641a535d7f57efc0

 

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Franco_92 Veteran

Franco_92

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Posted
1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Interesting analogy.  One factor in the 2019 loss to the Ravens (and our 2022 loss to the Dolphins) was that our defense did a good job containing their offense *most* of the day, but that we couldn't muster enough offense ourselves to counter.  So, mistakes played an outsized role.  The Ravens scored a TD after a strip sack of Josh Allen on 3rd and 8 gave them the ball at our 24 yd line.  Scored 5 plays later. 

 

So avoiding turnovers by our offense (and maybe generating 1-2 on defense) is going to be key.

 

I'll just add that it hasn't been uncommon for our D in past years to take a game to decode an offense.   However, I'm not sure how different the Dolphins offense really is from last year.  They had Morris, Waddle and Hill last season when we played them.

 

 

I thought when a team played at home, being favored by 2.5-3 points was a "Pick'em".

For years now they have been giving home teams ~1.5 points instead of 3

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sven233 Veteran

sven233

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

Anyone else super nervous for tomorrow? Dolphins have looked incredible, but they really haven't faced anyone notable this season.

 

Tomorrow is a little weird for me.  I'm not really super nervous or excited.  Of course I want to win the game.  I want to win every game.  But I can't help but feel that no matter what happens tomorrow, this won't be the most important game we have to play against this team this season.  Win by 20 or lose by 20, I just think in the grand scheme of things, we're going to see a more meaningful game against them down the road.  That said, I hope we stomp them.

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Pokebball Veteran

Pokebball

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Just now, sven233 said:

 

Tomorrow is a little weird for me.  I'm not really super nervous or excited.  Of course I want to win the game.  I want to win every game.  But I can't help but feel that no matter what happens tomorrow, this won't be the most important game we have to play against this team this season.  Win by 20 or lose by 20, I just think in the grand scheme of things, we're going to see a more meaningful game against them down the road.  That said, I hope we stomp them.

Quote

While we certainly can go into Miami and beat them, I don't want to have to do that to avoid a sweep. Let's win this one at home and avoid that.

 

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DaBillsFanSince1973 All Pro

DaBillsFanSince1973

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3 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

cool as a cucumber here.

 

not worried about facing the 2x september champs

 

some will find it wrong or overly confident but I have felt real good about the bills chances in this game and looking forward to shutting up all the naysayers.

 

BUF 37

 

MIA  24

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QCity Veteran

QCity

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4 hours ago, SCBills said:


Lines don’t change because a Safety isnt playing.   Just like the line doesn’t change because a Dolphins pass rusher isn’t playing.  
 

These seem like big things, and they can be, but unless you’re dealing with a wave of injuries depleting a position group as a whole, fans usually overestimate the non-QB effect on a game’s line of a missing player or two.  
 

I do believe Von was a line-affecting loss last year, just like Chris Jones impact on the Chiefs defense is probably worth something in Vegas.   But those non-QB players who can move the line a point or two are probably under 15-20 across the entire league … Poyer and Phillips aren’t any of them. 

 

Absolutely.

 

And if you are one of those people on the first few pages of this thread that thought the line was going to move from -3 to Even without a major injury -- just delete your sportsbook apps from your phone right now. Trust me.

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GoBills808 Hall of Famer

GoBills808

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12 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

Absolutely.

 

And if you are one of those people on the first few pages of this thread that thought the line was going to move from -3 to Even without a major injury -- just delete your sportsbook apps from your phone right now. Trust me.

Says the guy on Saturday lol

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Beck Water All Pro

Beck Water

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2 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I agree with this but don't love the Lamar comparison.

Tua could take 12 concussions this weekend and still have 10x the processing power of Jackson.

 

It's not the processing power that's the analogy IMHO.  In 2019, when the Ravens were rolling teams right and left, scoring 57, 37, 49, 41, 45, 42 points, Lamar wasn't asked to have that much processing power.  Roman's offense used a lot of eye candy to distract and confuse defensive coverage, and then put defenders in conflict  Keep, Run, throw to the TE over the middle.  Once the defender hesitated in conflict, make them miss with blazing speed.

 

Now keep-and-run isn't one of Tua's best threats, and he's running a more complex passing game, but it seems to me there are similar elements otherwise - the eye candy distraction pre and post snap, the scheme to put defenders in conflict "who do I take?" and to get the defenders to interfere with each other.  And of course, the "miss me, it's Shoesoles and #######s for you!" blazing speed.

 

I was looking for some of the quotes I read somewhere from Milano and Bernard etc. and can't find it, but it was all about how Miami schemes try to get defenders to interfere with each other "they want to bunch you up and get you to run into each other" kind of stuff.  Baltimore did similar things I believe.

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Generic_Bills_Fan Veteran

Generic_Bills_Fan

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2 hours ago, Gman10 said:

Anyone else super nervous for tomorrow? Dolphins have looked incredible, but they really haven't faced anyone notable this season.

No jaelan phillips, better OL for us over years past, no problem.  Dolphins have a real coverage LB problem and not much depth at those positions.

 

Miami is sure to rack up a ton of yards but it will all come down to red zone offense where their offensive gimmick is a bit less effective 

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Since1981 Veteran

Since1981

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Miami is sure to rack up a ton of yards but it will all come down to red zone offense where their offensive gimmick is a bit less effective 

Yes. Bills D “allows” them slowly go down the field, force outside, 9 play series, clog middle, and then finally Red Zone compression leans to BUF D. It’s like a mini prevent defense. Slow them down and hold at 0 or 3 at Red zone. 

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NewEra Hall of Famer

NewEra

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4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Seriously?  Oh well I thought several of our knowledgeable folks confirmed 3.  🤷‍♂️

I also think it’s closer to 1.5-2 nowadays 

18 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I'm kind of annoyed they're just reporting this because Poyer is out, maybe there is a good chance he's active but Rapp is getting the start he's more likely in a backup role.

And ST

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newcam2012 Veteran

newcam2012

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1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

It's not the processing power that's the analogy IMHO.  In 2019, when the Ravens were rolling teams right and left, scoring 57, 37, 49, 41, 45, 42 points, Lamar wasn't asked to have that much processing power.  Roman's offense used a lot of eye candy to distract and confuse defensive coverage, and then put defenders in conflict  Keep, Run, throw to the TE over the middle.  Once the defender hesitated in conflict, make them miss with blazing speed.

 

Now keep-and-run isn't one of Tua's best threats, and he's running a more complex passing game, but it seems to me there are similar elements otherwise - the eye candy distraction pre and post snap, the scheme to put defenders in conflict "who do I take?" and to get the defenders to interfere with each other.  And of course, the "miss me, it's Shoesoles and #######s for you!" blazing speed.

 

I was looking for some of the quotes I read somewhere from Milano and Bernard etc. and can't find it, but it was all about how Miami schemes try to get defenders to interfere with each other "they want to bunch you up and get you to run into each other" kind of stuff.  Baltimore did similar things I believe.

Baltimore never had quality WRs. Hill and Waddle are one of the best 1-2 WR combos in the league. Mosert and Achane have elite speed. 

 

Baltimore only had Lamar and Andrews. Big difference. 

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newcam2012 Veteran

newcam2012

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Posted
1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

It's not the processing power that's the analogy IMHO.  In 2019, when the Ravens were rolling teams right and left, scoring 57, 37, 49, 41, 45, 42 points, Lamar wasn't asked to have that much processing power.  Roman's offense used a lot of eye candy to distract and confuse defensive coverage, and then put defenders in conflict  Keep, Run, throw to the TE over the middle.  Once the defender hesitated in conflict, make them miss with blazing speed.

 

Now keep-and-run isn't one of Tua's best threats, and he's running a more complex passing game, but it seems to me there are similar elements otherwise - the eye candy distraction pre and post snap, the scheme to put defenders in conflict "who do I take?" and to get the defenders to interfere with each other.  And of course, the "miss me, it's Shoesoles and #######s for you!" blazing speed.

 

I was looking for some of the quotes I read somewhere from Milano and Bernard etc. and can't find it, but it was all about how Miami schemes try to get defenders to interfere with each other "they want to bunch you up and get you to run into each other" kind of stuff.  Baltimore did similar things I believe.

That's just one aspect of the Miami's offense. Miami uses motion to get their offensive players a head start. It's very hard to combat their speed especially when the defensive players are basically standing still. 

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ColoradoBills Hall of Famer

ColoradoBills

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20 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

What do you think about the Miami D that warrants this? I tend to agree with your overall sentiment that we are waiting to see the next level, but I don’t specifically see any reason MIA would be that game to unlock it. 
 

 

It's a big important division game.  Biggest in the first 8 games of the season.  It's time to unveil some of the stuff they want to do and then

reset some for the next big game against the Bengals in week #9.  IMO.

 

The results of Sunday's game are, the Bills are in 1st place in the AFCE or 2 1/2 games behind.  I think that is a pretty good reason.

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EmotionallyUnstable All Pro

EmotionallyUnstable

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16 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

It's a big important division game.  Biggest in the first 8 games of the season.  It's time to unveil some of the stuff they want to do and then

reset some for the next big game against the Bengals in week #9.  IMO.

 

The results of Sunday's game are, the Bills are in 1st place in the AFCE or 2 1/2 games behind.  I think that is a pretty good reason.

 

Makes sense with current narrative. One could also argue this made sense week 1. In just not sure that have that next gear, but if they do, agree that it’s be nice to see it when it matters most in the current match up 

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JerseyBills All Pro

JerseyBills

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Front 4 should dominate. Think if we limit big runs we can dominate. With no Phillips this is by far the worse DL we've played and possibly worse D overall. 

 

Also having a healthy Tre and Hyde against them will be interesting, our two best in secondary. Won't be surprised if we win big 38 24 

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JerseyBills All Pro

JerseyBills

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It’s not Taylor Swift though.

 

 

It's so odd ticket prices went way up cause Swift will be at Metlife. What do ppl think they'll meet her? So strange. 

 

I'll actually be there cause my buddy has his bosses season tix for free so why not 

 

Hope I'm celebrating a Bills w at the tailgate 

Edited by JerseyBills
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Aimee75 RFA

Aimee75

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Posted
19 hours ago, Blank Stare said:

Not saying it didn’t happen, but I didn’t see that. Interesting. He seemed genuine about the city on GR this week. Talked about how he was bringing his girlfriend up with him because he’s talked the city up so much she wanted to come. 🤷‍♂️

 

To each their own I guess. I flew in to Buffalo tonight for the weekend. Hitting the game on Sunday. I always love coming here. One of my favorite places to visit. 

He posted a unflattering pic of some of the more beat up buildings downtown. Pretty much to set Buffalo up for some snide comments. Pretty sure it was around the time of our playoff game.

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stevewin All Pro

stevewin

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

This has to be one of the most cogent, well thought out and well written posts I have seen in a while. And I think your analysis is spot on. Good job! 👍 

Let me try:

 

Rabble rabble Josh too many commercials rabble distraction rabble film watch rabble Hollywood rabble.

 

Rabble rabble Edmunds still sucks rabble 13 seconds rabble McDermott clap clap clappy rabble stupid glasses rabble.

 

Rabble Dorsey rabble Dorsey rabble Dorsey rabble daboll hot seat.

 

Rabble rabble Beane stupid rabble undersized LB rabble 

 

Rabble white-on-white rabble white-on-blue rabble blue-on-white rabble blue-on-blue rabble Rabble... blue helmet!

Edited by stevewin
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