"Running QBs Don't Last" - The Historical Record, and Why Everyone Wants Josh to Change His Game

[buffaloboyinATL]

QB’s didn’t get better after 40 either, until Brady came along. Times… they are a changing.  

[The Frankish Reich]

4 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

QB’s didn’t get better after 40 either, until Brady came along. Times… they are a changing.  

Russell Wilson concerns me. He can still throw. But his mobility has declined greatly, and it's made him a below-average starting QB by the age of 33. Yes, there's a lot of hits behind the line of scrimmage thanks to bad O lines and his propensity to hold onto the ball too long. But there was also a ton of wear and tear in getting to 500, 600, 800+ yards running downfield in his 20s.

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

Steve Young is the most relevant comp. 

Steve Young was also a guy with unusually low mileage on him for his age. There was the USFL spell (not sure how much damage he sustained there against lesser players), and then he sat behind Montana for 4 full seasons.

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Would he? I mean, I think so. But take away the run threat and would he be anywhere near the same guy? 

A large of what makes Allen unique is his ability to run. It’s a large part of his game. Take that away and he won’t be nearly as potent imo. 

[Mr. WEO]

55 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I’m saying we don’t know. RG3, Culpepper, Vick - all could still throw, but after the run was no longer a real threat they were backup quality at best. Randall Cunningham made the transition and was great in that one fluke season, but again … we just don’t know. 

He recovered and could still throw, but without the huge run threat he just wasn’t very good anymore. 

 

 

Culpepper's best year by far was 2004 when he rushed for his fewest yards as a full season starter (just over 400).

 

If a Qb is only a "huge running threat", he stinks.  This is what we saw in RG3.  Once healed, it wasn't lingering injury that slowed him down.  Defenses wouldn't let him run.  Once the league saw his game isn his rookie season, they easily defended him vs the run.  Disrespecting him as a passer, they shut down his run game.

[Billl]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

No the point was to say that running led to injuries and prematurely ended their careers.  Both had career altering injuries while passing the ball.

 

Say what now?

3 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

All Josh's injuries have come in the pocket.

 

 

 

 

http://www.thepostgame.com/josh-allen-wyoming-collarbone-injury-nfl-draft

 

 

Except for when he got concussed on a run…and when he broke his collar bone on a run.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Billl

[HerdMentality]

Don’t ever change Josh. What you do is what makes you a game changer.

[Chicken Boo]

4 hours ago, Doc said:

RG3's major injury happened without any contact.

 

It was a collision with Ngata that caused the initial acl tear for Bobby Griffin.  

[LeGOATski]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Other than Young, while these guys could run, they weren’t heavily run dependent like Allen. 

Maybe don't just look at total yards. Look at run/scramble percentages. 

 

Or just watch old games they played in to compare.

 

That might help you out.

[Billl]

2 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I don't know if that's a fair term.

Relative to those guys, I'd say he's in a lot more situations where he has to bail before he even hits his drop because he's about to get buried.

Roethlisberger, Favre, and Elway are the 2nd, 4th, and 5th most sacked QBs of all time.  Brady is the most sacked QB of all time.  Funny how their careers didn’t get cut super short like…literally every running QB other than Young.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Billl

[Big Blitz]

20 years ago you were a “running QB” because you were 1. Great at it and 2. Probably not as good a passer.  
 

Its 2023.  You can be both.  

 

It’s a different game.  The QB is protected.  And these guys came up doing both in systems that allowed them to.  Unlike 20 or 30 or almost 40 years ago when some of those guys were in high school still running the Wing T.  

 

 

 

 

[Doc Brown]

They're playing with fire as those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.  If you want to preserve Allen, prioritize the o-line more than you have, get WR's who can separate, and cut the designed QB runs to an absolute minimum.  That's what you saw in 2020.  It was the best o-line/wr supporting cast he had and it was the year he had his least amount of rushing attempts and sacks per game.

[Orlando Tim]

6 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

So we've all heard it. Josh Allen needs to change his game, become more of a pocket passer, less inclined to take off running. His longevity depends on it. Does it?

The sample is small, and many of the leaders on the yards per game board are still young and active.

 

But it's not promising.

 

Bottom line: since 2000, no true "running QB" has ever lasted as an effective starter past Age 33. [Exception: weird, inexplicable Randall Cunningham comeback at 35, but that happened in 1998.] Historically, you'd probably expect most QBs to run out of gas in their mid-30s. But we're now in the age of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning(s) playing into their late 30s or 40s, and yet no actual running (not "mobile" or "scrambling" - we're talking about the guys who pull it down and take off downfield) QB has made it past 33. Many were done in their 20s. 

 

These are the post-2000 QBs who either averaged 30 yards per game running over at least a couple seasons of starts, or who had at least one 500+ yard rushing season or multiple 400+ yard rushing seasons in their careers. (No, Rodgers and Mahomes have never had even a single 400 yard rushing season)

 

1. Lamar Jackson. 63.4 rushing yards per game. 26 years old. Still active. Poor injury history.

2. Justin Fields. 57.9 yards per game. 24 years old. Too soon to tell.

3. Mike Vick. 42.7 yards per game. Basically done as a starter by Age 33 season (even with missing 2 years due to suspension)

4. Jalen Hurts. 42.2 yards per game. 24. Too soon to tell.

5. Josh Allen. 40.1 yards per game. 27. Too soon to tell.

6. Kyler Murray. 38.7 yards per game. 25. Too soon to tell

7. Cam Newton. 38.0 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 30 season.

8. Colin Kaepernick. 33.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 28. [**Big Asterisk]

9. Robert Griffin III. 32.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 24. Devastating knee injury.

10. Daniel Jones. 31.6 yards per game. 26. Too soon to tell.

11. Deshaun Watson. 30.9 yards per game. 27 Too soon to tell (but not looking promising) [*Little Asterisk]

12. Randall Cunningham. 30.6 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter at 31. But then with a weird, non-running QB career year at 35. Then done again at 36.

13. Russell Wilson. 28.7 yards per game, but  four 500 yard-plus rushing seasons by age 29, including one 800 yard season. Effectively done at 33 (unless there's a surprise return to form under Sean Payton?)

14. Kordell Stewart. 23 yards per game [value decreased by early "slash" years], with four 400+, one 500+ rushing seson by age 29. Done as a starter by Age 30.

15. Tyrod Taylor. 25.6 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 500+ yard rushing season with the Bills. Constant injuries since.  Done as a starter by Age 28.

13. Donovan McNabb. 20.7 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 26. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

14. Steve McNair. 22.3 yards per game, but five 400+ yard, one 500+ yard, and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 29. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

15. Daunte Culpepper. 25.3 yards per game, but five 400+ seasons, one 600+ rushing season by age 27. Done as a starter by age 28.

16. Vince Young. 24.3 yards per game, but rookie season 500+ yards rushing. Done completely by age 28. [*I feel like he should get the world's tiniest asterisk, but I'm not sure why]

 

THE GREAT EXCEPTION

17. Steve Young (included here even though he'd retired after 1999, and was before everyone else's time). 25.1 yards per game, but four 400+yard, one 500+ yard rushing seasons by age 32. Made it all the way to Age 37 as a top-flight starter, even rushing for 454 yards that year. Like I said: The Great Exception.

The biggest issue for Josh, I think, is who is hitting him. If DL is creaming him then 33 is gonna be a bad year. If he can ensure mainly DBs are hitting him 40 is reasonable. He is not a RB but can definitely survive a ton of hits from dudes smaller than him. 

[gobills1212]

This was pretty much answered by post 2 and then smartly echoed throughout.  What I dont understand is why Billl went through and disagreed or thumbsdown all of these posts.. weird flex? Tyrod Superfan?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

So the Bills and Allen are also damn fools for paying attention to such things. Or “this is why you are not in NFL management.”

Other than Young, while these guys could run, they weren’t heavily run dependent like Allen. 

 

That's because they were not super athletes like Allen. Allen can throw on the same level of Big Ben, Favre and Elway. The difference is he is on another level than those guys when it comes to running. I get the injury risk. But the dude can play with his arm just like those three forementioned QB's. All three were still really good late in their careers when they were much less mobile because of their arm talent. It could certainly be the same way for Allen. 

 

I get the worry, but if you look at the list, just think, who is most likely out of all the young QB's, to be more like Steve Young? Do you think it is Daniel Jones or Josh Allen?

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

good info 👍

 

for the love of god take the QB power read tag out of the RPO Dorsey plz

They will.  They're not going to neuter Josh from running altogether but I think both Josh and McB are in agreement to scale back the running (hits). It's just not sustainable. He will definitely start refining his pocket game.  Not to say he won't take off when flushed but they'll be more infrequent. It's basically the only way we get another 10 years of QB1.

[buffaloboyinATL]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Russell Wilson concerns me. He can still throw. But his mobility has declined greatly, and it's made him a below-average starting QB by the age of 33. Yes, there's a lot of hits behind the line of scrimmage thanks to bad O lines and his propensity to hold onto the ball too long. But there was also a ton of wear and tear in getting to 500, 600, 800+ yards running downfield in his 20s.

 

I always saw Wilson’s success as a game of inches.  I always thought, “just a split second later, and that play would be a disaster.”

 

Maybe he finally slowed down that split second…

[PrimeTime101]

7 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Sure, that's true of some, or even a lot.

But it's not true at all of others. McNair had a huge arm and was a very accurate passer in his day. Culpepper too. And Russell Wilson. 

I see the point in that a lot of these guys were runners because they were totally unsuited to the classic pocket passing game, and that (we hope) Josh actually is. That's why they want him to change before its too late.

Ok.. Some had a variable of one or many things going on.

 

1. Watch how Josh Allen falls. He a "Oak Tree"

2. Just bad passers.

3. They never new when was enough

4. Good Throwers but Run first type of qb. 

5. Size. 

 

Or

 

6. A mix of everything... Now.. Now and then JA goes all superman on us but for most plays? JA knows when its enough... He even started sliding more.

 

I think this year Josh Allen gets flushed out of the pocket? he will run, but I think most running plays are going to the Running BACKS this year. 

 

Josh Allen is an anomaly. There will not be another Josh Allen for a long time. Comparing him to possible future injuries and health concerns to THOSE qb's? 

 

no thanks  

[Dr.Sack]

Are you saying Mahomes 3 broken tackles and 147 yards after contact total for his career, make him less likely to be injured than Allen’s 28 broken tackles and 1,119 yards after contact?

 

[GunnerBill]

I don't think of Josh as a running Quarterback. 

[eball]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think of Josh as a running Quarterback. 

 

Thank you.  The major flaw in this analysis is calling Josh a “true running QB.”  Just because he can run and does it effectively doesn’t make him a running QB, and he is probably 10x the passer of anyone on that list save Steve Young.

 

[Chaos]

9 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Russell Wilson concerns me. He can still throw. But his mobility has declined greatly, and it's made him a below-average starting QB by the age of 33. Yes, there's a lot of hits behind the line of scrimmage thanks to bad O lines and his propensity to hold onto the ball too long. But there was also a ton of wear and tear in getting to 500, 600, 800+ yards running downfield in his 20s.

Steve Young was also a guy with unusually low mileage on him for his age. There was the USFL spell (not sure how much damage he sustained there against lesser players), and then he sat behind Montana for 4 full seasons.

Allen is bigger, stronger, a better runner and a better passer than Young. Allen is a unique player. There really are not any true comps.  Young just happens to be the closest of the people on the list. 

[Freddie's Dead]

11 hours ago, julian said:

Bingo… Allen will go down as the greatest duel threat QB of all time once his career ends.

 

Bigger than Hamilton-Burr?  No way.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

14 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Culpepper was a good passer

RG3 and Cam were more than capable

Wilson was a great passer

McNair was underrated thrower of the football imo

 

i think the point that taking a lot of damage running the ball tends to shorten QB careers is totally valid

 

Culpepper the majority of his career was a bad passer.

[julian]

1 hour ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

Bigger than Hamilton-Burr?  No way.

 

Grade 10 Ricky !!!!

[The Frankish Reich]

23 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Culpepper the majority of his career was a bad passer.

I disagree. Objectively, he is probably the closest comp to Josh. Tremendous size, great athlete, came into the NFL pretty raw but put together this season at age 27:

 

Historic season

Culpepper enjoyed his best statistical season as a professional in 2004 and, though they were only 8–8, the Vikings reached the playoffs for the second time under Culpepper. Passing for a league-leading 4,717 yards, a Viking-record 39 touchdowns, and only 11 interceptions, Culpepper was named to his third career Pro Bowl. Culpepper also broke Dan Marino's NFL record for combined passing and rushing yards, amassing 5,123 total yards. His 2,323 rushing yards from 2000–2004 also made him only the fourth quarterback in NFL history to run for more than 2,300 yards in a five-season period. (Michael Vick had 3,570 from 2002–2006; Randall Cunningham had 3,232 from 1986–1990; and Steve McNair had 2,387 from 1997–2001). Culpepper’s career rushing average of 26.1 yards per game is fourth-best among quarterbacks in NFL history. Only Vick (47.3 yds/g), Cunningham (30.6 yds/g), and Bobby Douglass (29.8 yds/g) have averaged more rushing yards per game during their QB careers. After the 2004 season, Culpepper said the game had “slowed down” for him, saying

I feel like a Jedi Knight.[11][12][13]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daunte_Culpepper

 

69.2 completion percentage that year too. He was tremendous, and he was just entering his prime years. Or so we thought ...

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CulpDa00.htm

 

He ripped up his knee downfield when a tackler hit him low. He was never the same (although off the field behavior also helped to derail his career).

 

Yes, he had Randy Moss, but Moss only caught 49 balls. He also took a ton of sacks and had the likes of Onterrio Smith as his lead RB. We forget how good he was for a brief shining moment.

[Real McClappy]

Surprised Mahomes didn't make the cut. 

 

 

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

26 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I disagree. Objectively, he is probably the closest comp to Josh. Tremendous size, great athlete, came into the NFL pretty raw but put together this season at age 27:

 

Historic season

Culpepper enjoyed his best statistical season as a professional in 2004 and, though they were only 8–8, the Vikings reached the playoffs for the second time under Culpepper. Passing for a league-leading 4,717 yards, a Viking-record 39 touchdowns, and only 11 interceptions, Culpepper was named to his third career Pro Bowl. Culpepper also broke Dan Marino's NFL record for combined passing and rushing yards, amassing 5,123 total yards. His 2,323 rushing yards from 2000–2004 also made him only the fourth quarterback in NFL history to run for more than 2,300 yards in a five-season period. (Michael Vick had 3,570 from 2002–2006; Randall Cunningham had 3,232 from 1986–1990; and Steve McNair had 2,387 from 1997–2001). Culpepper’s career rushing average of 26.1 yards per game is fourth-best among quarterbacks in NFL history. Only Vick (47.3 yds/g), Cunningham (30.6 yds/g), and Bobby Douglass (29.8 yds/g) have averaged more rushing yards per game during their QB careers. After the 2004 season, Culpepper said the game had “slowed down” for him, saying

I feel like a Jedi Knight.[11][12][13]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daunte_Culpepper

 

69.2 completion percentage that year too. He was tremendous, and he was just entering his prime years. Or so we thought ...

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CulpDa00.htm

 

He ripped up his knee downfield when a tackler hit him low. He was never the same (although off the field behavior also helped to derail his career).

 

Yes, he had Randy Moss, but Moss only caught 49 balls. He also took a ton of sacks and had the likes of Onterrio Smith as his lead RB. We forget how good he was for a brief shining moment.

 

I will acknowledge he had two great years, one decent but the rest was terrible.  

 

[The Frankish Reich]

26 minutes ago, Real McNasty said:

Surprised Mahomes didn't make the cut. 

 

 

 

 

I left off Mahomes because he didn't meet my "averaged 30 yards per game rushing OR had a 400 yard rushing season." You could argue that he belongs. I do think there is a significant difference between how he plays the game vs. Allen, Hurts, and the other "running QBs" with respect to designed runs, pulling the ball down and taking off downfield when plays break down, etc. He strikes me as more of a pure situational buy time/scrambling QB who will run in important game situations when the opportunity is there. And that's reflected in the lower rushing yard totals.

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I will acknowledge he had two great years, one decent but the rest was terrible.  

 

Terrible after the injury. 

That great 2004 season when they still only went 8-8? 26th ranked defense. Give him the Bills defense of 2021 and it would've been a different story.

[Royale with Cheese]

15 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I left off Mahomes because he didn't meet my "averaged 30 yards per game rushing OR had a 400 yard rushing season." You could argue that he belongs. I do think there is a significant difference between how he plays the game vs. Allen, Hurts, and the other "running QBs" with respect to designed runs, pulling the ball down and taking off downfield when plays break down, etc. He strikes me as more of a pure situational buy time/scrambling QB who will run in important game situations when the opportunity is there. And that's reflected in the lower rushing yard totals.

Terrible after the injury. 

That great 2004 season when they still only went 8-8? 26th ranked defense. Give him the Bills defense of 2021 and it would've been a different story.

 

The 3 years before his great 2004 season, his TD/INT was 57 TD/47 INT's.  That's pretty poor, the prime of his career and pre-injury.  

The defense gave up 24 points a game.  The offense scored 25 points a game.  

Edited July 27, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[Fleezoid]

Aside from maybe Russel Wilson and Mahomes, every Super Bowl winning QB has been that quintessential pocket QB. I've always thought/said, to win a championship you need that big 6' 3"+ pocket passer. I still think that. With that said, Allen is a big pocket QB that can run. He doesn't fit the mold of most of those running QBs.

[Matt_In_NH]

When Cunningham played at 35 he did not run much......that is the key, Josh has be long term be able to dominate more as a pocket guy.  I think it will be fine, he knows it.  He can already be successful as passer.  

[The Frankish Reich]

12 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

When Cunningham played at 35 he did not run much......that is the key, Josh has be long term be able to dominate more as a pocket guy.  I think it will be fine, he knows it.  He can already be successful as passer.  

True. That was a very different Randall Cunningham. And the best Randall Cunningham ever was, even at 35, and even as his age meant his legs were no longer a big weapon. Too bad it only lasted one season.

20 minutes ago, Fleezoid said:

Aside from maybe Russel Wilson and Mahomes, every Super Bowl winning QB has been that quintessential pocket QB. I've always thought/said, to win a championship you need that big 6' 3"+ pocket passer. I still think that. With that said, Allen is a big pocket QB that can run. He doesn't fit the mold of most of those running QBs.

Kaepernick came really, really close ...

[Malazan]

Ohh, ohh, now do "non-running" QBs

[Just in Atlanta]

A few notes:

Cam Newton scared me every time he ran. He had zero intuition about how to take a hit and looked awkward when he did - like a giraffe galloping in the savannah. It's like you expected him to break his leg and end up under a herd of lions. A truly awkward presence on and off the field. 

I second the comment about Elway. 

Mike Vick was a bad passer with bad form. 

Tyrod was "done as a starter" at 28 because he is of backup QB quality. He also had a freak injury caused by a DOCTOR. 

I know Roethlisberger wasn't a "running QB" per se but he held onto the ball forever and took massive hits before getting a new OC mid-late-career, who instructed him to lose weight and get rid of the ball quickly. I'd say his career went pretty long. Of all of these QBs, I'd say Allen most closely resembles him, although JA's talent is across the board better. 

[BillsShredder83]

The bulk of Josh's run yards come on scrambling. The defense is spread out by that point, he has good vision of where defenders are at, he can escape to a sideline or slide.

I realize he doesn't always do the best job at it, but generally these plays seem safe, and he's in control of what contact he takes. I love the scrambling, he has green light from me to take off when it makes sense. Do a better job getting down.

 

Now the designed runs are opposite of all this. They should never happen unless in redzone and dire, and occasionally on a critical 4th down. Outside of RZ and critical 4ths, this needs to leave playbook fully

[Nextmanup]

Josh's elite running ability won't last past 33 no matter what!

 

People get old.

 

Josh's running is an important part of his game; keep running Josh! 

 

And message to McClappy:  win the F-ing SB while you have a QB capable of full service.

 

Josh's running window is a hell of a lot smaller than his throwing window, regardless of injury.

 

 

 

[90sBills]

6 hours ago, Real McNasty said:

Surprised Mahomes didn't make the cut. 

 

 

 

 

He averages less than 4 rushing attempts per game with hardly any designed qb runs. People mistakenly think of him as a running guy because of his scrambling ability to buy time. He beats teams with his arm. If Allen can escalate his game to Mahomes’ level…watch out. 

[Doc]

16 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

It was a collision with Ngata that caused the initial acl tear for Bobby Griffin.  

 

All I saw after doing a search yesterday was a "mild knee sprain" after that hit.

[Chaos]

On 7/26/2023 at 5:34 PM, The Frankish Reich said:

yet no actual running (not "mobile" or "scrambling" - we're talking about the guys who pull it down and take off downfield) QB has made it past 33

How long to most non-running QBs make it in the NFL? 

[The Frankish Reich]

43 minutes ago, Chaos said:

How long to most non-running QBs make it in the NFL? 

Good question.

I thought about that. The quick answer is: that's why I limited the list to QBs who racked up a lot of rushing yards over at least two full seasons. In other words, starting QBs who had some record of success. There are a lot of non-running QBs who would meet a similar threshold for passes thrown/passing yards per game, etc., who washed out equally young. Think EJ Manuel. I'm not sure there's a good way to control for this.