"Running QBs Don't Last" - The Historical Record, and Why Everyone Wants Josh to Change His Game

[The Frankish Reich]

So we've all heard it. Josh Allen needs to change his game, become more of a pocket passer, less inclined to take off running. His longevity depends on it. Does it?

The sample is small, and many of the leaders on the yards per game board are still young and active.

 

But it's not promising.

 

Bottom line: since 2000, no true "running QB" has ever lasted as an effective starter past Age 33. [Exception: weird, inexplicable Randall Cunningham comeback at 35, but that happened in 1998.] Historically, you'd probably expect most QBs to run out of gas in their mid-30s. But we're now in the age of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning(s) playing into their late 30s or 40s, and yet no actual running (not "mobile" or "scrambling" - we're talking about the guys who pull it down and take off downfield) QB has made it past 33. Many were done in their 20s. 

 

These are the post-2000 QBs who either averaged 30 yards per game running over at least a couple seasons of starts, or who had at least one 500+ yard rushing season or multiple 400+ yard rushing seasons in their careers. (No, Rodgers and Mahomes have never had even a single 400 yard rushing season)

 

1. Lamar Jackson. 63.4 rushing yards per game. 26 years old. Still active. Poor injury history.

2. Justin Fields. 57.9 yards per game. 24 years old. Too soon to tell.

3. Mike Vick. 42.7 yards per game. Basically done as a starter by Age 33 season (even with missing 2 years due to suspension)

4. Jalen Hurts. 42.2 yards per game. 24. Too soon to tell.

5. Josh Allen. 40.1 yards per game. 27. Too soon to tell.

6. Kyler Murray. 38.7 yards per game. 25. Too soon to tell

7. Cam Newton. 38.0 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 30 season.

8. Colin Kaepernick. 33.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 28. [**Big Asterisk]

9. Robert Griffin III. 32.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 24. Devastating knee injury.

10. Daniel Jones. 31.6 yards per game. 26. Too soon to tell.

11. Deshaun Watson. 30.9 yards per game. 27 Too soon to tell (but not looking promising) [*Little Asterisk]

12. Randall Cunningham. 30.6 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter at 31. But then with a weird, non-running QB career year at 35. Then done again at 36.

13. Russell Wilson. 28.7 yards per game, but  four 500 yard-plus rushing seasons by age 29, including one 800 yard season. Effectively done at 33 (unless there's a surprise return to form under Sean Payton?)

14. Kordell Stewart. 23 yards per game [value decreased by early "slash" years], with four 400+, one 500+ rushing seson by age 29. Done as a starter by Age 30.

15. Tyrod Taylor. 25.6 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 500+ yard rushing season with the Bills. Constant injuries since.  Done as a starter by Age 28.

13. Donovan McNabb. 20.7 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 26. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

14. Steve McNair. 22.3 yards per game, but five 400+ yard, one 500+ yard, and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 29. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

15. Daunte Culpepper. 25.3 yards per game, but five 400+ seasons, one 600+ rushing season by age 27. Done as a starter by age 28.

16. Vince Young. 24.3 yards per game, but rookie season 500+ yards rushing. Done completely by age 28. [*I feel like he should get the world's tiniest asterisk, but I'm not sure why]

 

THE GREAT EXCEPTION

17. Steve Young (included here even though he'd retired after 1999, and was before everyone else's time). 25.1 yards per game, but four 400+yard, one 500+ yard rushing seasons by age 32. Made it all the way to Age 37 as a top-flight starter, even rushing for 454 yards that year. Like I said: The Great Exception.

Edited July 26, 2023 by The Frankish Reich

[Ethan in Cleveland]

The vast majority of these guys weren't good QBs regardless of age or running frequency. Young is a HOF and the most obvious exception as you pointed out. Wilson may still rebound and I doubt his decline has anything to do with running. He was sacked relentlessly behind a bad Seahawks oline the last two years he was there. And I dont think he cares about football anymore. 

Excluding Rodgers and Roethlisberger skews the data set. Both were mobile guys that moved around a lot in the early part of their careers. 

[Doc]

That's because they weren't good passers and when their running abilities diminished, their success went.  Except for the outliers who happened to be good passers.

Edited July 26, 2023 by Doc

[GoBills808]

good info 👍

 

for the love of god take the QB power read tag out of the RPO Dorsey plz

[The Frankish Reich]

8 minutes ago, Doc said:

That's because they weren't good passers and when their running abilities diminished, their success went.  Except for the outliers who were also happened to be good passers.

Sure, that's true of some, or even a lot.

But it's not true at all of others. McNair had a huge arm and was a very accurate passer in his day. Culpepper too. And Russell Wilson. 

I see the point in that a lot of these guys were runners because they were totally unsuited to the classic pocket passing game, and that (we hope) Josh actually is. That's why they want him to change before its too late.

[Simon Says]

This premise ignores the fact that many of these guys were not good PASSERS and exploited their athletic ability to gain some yards.

Some have,or will become effective passers. Josh has certainly improved that part of his game,but many don't. 

[The Frankish Reich]

15 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Excluding Rodgers and Roethlisberger skews the data set

I don't think so. I think the criteria I set were objective, and also fit reality. Roethlisberger wasn't a guy with designed run plays or who was eager to tuck the ball away and take off. His style was more to move around and use his massive size to shed would-be QB sacks. Rodgers is a special kind of QB, more like a right handed Steve Young in some ways, but again - all those years and never a 400 yard rushing season tells us something.

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, Doc said:

That's because they weren't good passers and when their running abilities diminished, their success went.  Except for the outliers who happened to be good passers.

Culpepper was a good passer

RG3 and Cam were more than capable

Wilson was a great passer

McNair was underrated thrower of the football imo

 

i think the point that taking a lot of damage running the ball tends to shorten QB careers is totally valid

[Doc]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Sure, that's true of some, or even a lot.

But it's not true at all of others. McNair had a huge arm and was a very accurate passer in his day. Culpepper too. And Russell Wilson. 

I see the point in that a lot of these guys were runners because they were totally unsuited to the classic pocket passing game, and that (we hope) Josh actually is. That's why they want him to change before its too late.

 

Culpepper's success was mostly due to playing with 2 HOF WRs.  And McNair was about a 200 yard/game passer.  And Wilson is a small guy compared to guy laying the wood to him. 

 

That being said, I'd like for Josh to run less or, when he does run, look to avoid contact/slide.

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, Doc said:

That being said, I'd like for Josh to run less or, when he does run, look to avoid contact/slide.

Exactly. I'm not saying Josh is doomed to an early retirement if he doesn't stop running with the ball. Every guy is different, and the NFL of the 2020s is different too. But it is playing with fire to keep running and taking hits.

I expect to see more of a situational approach. He'll run when it really counts, like in the playoffs or when a key game for playoff seeding hangs in the balance. The rest of the time? Slide, run out of bounds behind the line, or throw the ball away. That only makes sense.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Culpepper was a good passer

RG3 and Cam were more than capable

Wilson was a great passer

McNair was underrated thrower of the football imo

 

i think the point that taking a lot of damage running the ball tends to shorten QB careers is totally valid

 

RG3's career was derailed by injury and playing him too soon early on.  As for Cam, he was a career sub-60% passer and then messed-up his shoulder.

[GoBills808]

Just now, Doc said:

 

RG3's career was derailed by injury and playing him too soon early on.  As for Cam, he was a career sub-60% passer and then messed-up his shoulder.

imo if we are going to say Culpepper wasn't necessarily a good passer because he had Moss and Carter we have to acknowledge that Cam never had any wideouts to speak of

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

RG3's career was derailed by injury and playing him too soon early on.  As for Cam, he was a career sub-60% passer and then messed-up his shoulder.

Well, those things aren't exactly independent from running the ball a lot and taking hits ...

[Beast]

There are so many in that list you made whose issues were far away from them being a running QB.

[Doc]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

imo if we are going to say Culpepper wasn't necessarily a good passer because he had Moss and Carter we have to acknowledge that Cam never had any wideouts to speak of

 

He had Steve Smith.

 

Just now, The Frankish Reich said:

Well, those things aren't exactly independent from running the ball a lot and taking hits ...

 

RG3's major injury happened without any contact.

[Dopey]

I’m just happy to hear Josh acknowledge this. Looking forward to an awesome season by a more mature Josh. 

[Warcodered]

22 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I don't think so. I think the criteria I set were objective, and also fit reality. Roethlisberger wasn't a guy with designed run plays or who was eager to tuck the ball away and take off. His style was more to move around and use his massive size to shed would-be QB sacks. Rodgers is a special kind of QB, more like a right handed Steve Young in some ways, but again - all those years and never a 400 yard rushing season tells us something.

A lot of these guys ran in different ways but you still included them?

[GoBills808]

19 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

He had Steve Smith.

For what like 2 years

[Charles Romes]

Um. Elway?

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

For what like 2 years

 

True.  But he had some good weapons in Olsen, McCaffrey and DJ Moore.  And he messed up his shoulder trying to tackle a defender after an INT and that's what did him in ultimately.

[Chaos]

Steve Young is the most relevant comp. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Don't get me wrong. I would like to see Allen rush the ball less and dump the ball off to his running backs and wide receivers for them to take the hits.

But you included quarterbacks from eras where they could murder the quarterback in the pocket. It's completely different now. multiple protections for the quarterback in the pocket and outside of the pocket. Allen can last quite a long time still doing what hes doing today.

[Mr. WEO]

Too many bums on that list.  Allen has a few more years before he's "done at 33".

 

Let the guy play his game.  

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

RG3's career was derailed by injury and playing him too soon early on.  As for Cam, he was a career sub-60% passer and then messed-up his shoulder.

Yeah.  They literally both ended their careers early due to injuries.  That’s the entire point of the thread.

[BuffaloBillyG]

45 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Um. Elway?

This has always been my closest comparison for Allen. And just like Elway, if you take away the running game Allen can kill you from the pocket. Many of the guys on that list were more running QBs that were average throwers. 

 

And I believe just like Elway, the older Allen gets the more he learns and by the time he can't run for 700 yards a season he will be craftier and smarter in the pocket.

[Charles Romes]

Tarkenton retired at 38 as the all time passing leader in an era when qbs were not protected and no one knew anything about nutrition or physical therapy.  Maybe it was his great scrambling that helped him avoid taking huge hits standing in the pocket. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by Charles Romes

[Doc]

19 minutes ago, Billl said:

Yeah.  They literally both ended their careers early due to injuries.  That’s the entire point of the thread.

 

No the point was to say that running led to injuries and prematurely ended their careers.  Both had career altering injuries while passing the ball.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Doc

[Freddie's Dead]

All Josh's injuries have come in the pocket.

 

[Success]

It's been said already - but if Allen never ran another yard, he'd still be a top 5 QB in the league.

 

That's a real differentiator w/ the historical stats.  

[julian]

20 minutes ago, Success said:

It's been said already - but if Allen never ran another yard, he'd still be a top 5 QB in the league.

 

That's a real differentiator w/ the historical stats.  

Bingo… Allen will go down as the greatest duel threat QB of all time once his career ends.

[Mr. WEO]

55 minutes ago, Billl said:

Yeah.  They literally both ended their careers early due to injuries.  That’s the entire point of the thread.

RG recovered from his injury.  Turns out he was a flash in the pan.  

[Simon Says]

Too many flaws and inconsistencies to justify the time spent reading it.

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

A lot of these guys ran in different ways but you still included them?

I tried to use an objective standard.
- an average of 30 yards rushing per game (roughly 500 yards per season) over a sustained period of 2+ years of starts. QBs who are mobile and more like old fashioned “scramblers” pretty much never hit that level. So it weeds them out and leaves us with the clear running QBs 

OR

- QBs who had at least one season (usually multiple seasons) of 400+ yards rushing. Again, this weeds out the scramblers and guys like Mahomes and Rodgers who don’t often run by design.

So … not perfect, but it avoids cherry picking to prove the hypothesis. 

1 hour ago, Success said:

It's been said already - but if Allen never ran another yard, he'd still be a top 5 QB in the league.

Would he? I mean, I think so. But take away the run threat and would he be anywhere near the same guy? 

[LeGOATski]

Josh isn't a "running QB".... he's a QB that can run. If you're looking for exceptions, look no further. Josh is a Young, Favre, Roethlisberger, Elway, etc.

[The Frankish Reich]

9 minutes ago, Herb Nightly said:

Too many flaws and inconsistencies to justify the time spent reading it.

So the Bills and Allen are also damn fools for paying attention to such things. Or “this is why you are not in NFL management.”

Just now, LeGOATski said:

Josh isn't a "running QB".... he's a QB that can run. If you're looking for exceptions, look no further. Josh is a Young, Favre, Roethlisberger, Elway, etc.

Other than Young, while these guys could run, they weren’t heavily run dependent like Allen. 

[Simon]

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

 

Other than Young, while these guys could run, they weren’t heavily run dependent like Allen. 

 

I don't know if that's a fair term.

Relative to those guys, I'd say he's in a lot more situations where he has to bail before he even hits his drop because he's about to get buried.

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I tried to use an objective standard.
- an average of 30 yards rushing per game (roughly 500 yards per season) over a sustained period of 2+ years of starts. QBs who are mobile and more like old fashioned “scramblers” pretty much never hit that level. So it weeds them out and leaves us with the clear running QBs 

OR

- QBs who had at least one season (usually multiple seasons) of 400+ yards rushing. Again, this weeds out the scramblers and guys like Mahomes and Rodgers who don’t often run by design.

So … not perfect, but it avoids cherry picking to prove the hypothesis. 

Would he? I mean, I think so. But take away the run threat and would he be anywhere near the same guy? 

name 5 better

[The Frankish Reich]

18 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

name 5 better

I’m saying we don’t know. RG3, Culpepper, Vick - all could still throw, but after the run was no longer a real threat they were backup quality at best. Randall Cunningham made the transition and was great in that one fluke season, but again … we just don’t know. 

57 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

RG recovered from his injury.  Turns out he was a flash in the pan.  

He recovered and could still throw, but without the huge run threat he just wasn’t very good anymore. 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

This has always been my closest comparison for Allen. And just like Elway, if you take away the running game Allen can kill you from the pocket. Many of the guys on that list were more running QBs that were average throwers. 

 

And I believe just like Elway, the older Allen gets the more he learns and by the time he can't run for 700 yards a season he will be craftier and smarter in the pocket.

Elway ran for 3400 yards over 16 seasons. Allen has already run for 3100 over 6. I hope you’re right about Allen’s future tracking Elway’s, but right now they’re not comparable with respect to how much their success depends on running. 

3 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Well, those things aren't exactly independent from running the ball a lot and taking hits ...

I forgot that Cam ascribed his shoulder problem to trying to make a tackle on an interception. So yes, you can carve out a “freak injury” exception for him. But to me he showed an overall decline in ability that went beyond that. 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, Charles Romes said:

Tarkenton retired at 38 as the all time passing leader in an era when qbs were not protected and no one knew anything about nutrition or physical therapy.  Maybe it was his great scrambling that helped him avoid taking huge hits standing in the pocket. 

Agreed. Which is why I tried to separate scramblers from runners. I see where you could move a Rodgers into the “runner” category (he did have some 300+ Yard rushing seasons) and make him another Steve Young exception. But what 70s QBs like Tarkenton and Staubach did seems very different to the way Allen, Lamar, Hurts, Fields play the game today. 

36 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

I don't know if that's a fair term.

Relative to those guys, I'd say he's in a lot more situations where he has to bail before he even hits his drop because he's about to get buried.

Well, yes. There's a difference between Lamar's Ravens offense and Allen's Bills offense (not to mention Fields and the Bears so-called offense, which involves Fields running for his life on every play). I think Hurts/Eagles is closest. It's not designed-run dependent, but the designed and undesigned runs are very important parts of their respective offenses.