Singletary—inarguably above average statistically: discuss

[hondo in seattle]

I'd be willing to sign Motor to a minimal deal as a hedge against not finding a better back.  He's got some moderate skills and he's a great teammate.  And, at the moment, he's best RB we have.

 

Ideally, though, I'd love to have more speed in the RB position.  Then again, a power back would be a great compliment to Josh.  It's hard to shut down a power back and a strong armed QB both at the same time.  

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

47 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/running-back/all/

 

RB market is bottoming out. Top of the FA market is $6.25M AAV (not including Saquon Barkley’s FT). Third highest AAV is $4M. Many RBs making big money are being shopped or cut. It’s already a buyer’s market so players like Singletary will be signing cheaply or not at all. 

Love it go get Harris on the cheap and see if you can get one healthy season out of him.  He can do it all when healthy 

[BarleyNY]

57 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Even if Singletary wants to come back on the minimum deal, his skill set is not what we need.  
 

Power. Back.  
 

Someone to take short yardage from Josh Allen. 
 

That’s not Singletary. 

I agree that we could use a back with some power, but that back also needs to fit with our scheme. We don’t have bullies on the OL to run power football. We need runners who can hit the holes wherever they open up. 

[Nephilim17]

Why is the OP using 2019 stats as a point of comparison to an aged Frank Gore with a different team, different, O-line, and different Josh Allen?

If you want a more accurate apples-to-apples comp, use 2022 and Cooks stats vs. Singletary's as a point of comparison and to have "inarguable" statistical comparisons.

[mabden]

15 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

This isn’t an argument. Elaborate, please.

 

Cook's fumble on his very first carry as a Bill, didn't help.

[poblano]

7 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Why is the OP using 2019 stats as a point of comparison to an aged Frank Gore with a different team, different, O-line, and different Josh Allen?

If you want a more accurate apples-to-apples comp, use 2022 and Cooks stats vs. Singletary's as a point of comparison and to have "inarguable" statistical comparisons.

Also you must watch games or at least try to remember the situations in wich both run the ball, Cook never get a short down try, and after Moss trade that was a Singletary role and  why his average per carry is lower than Cook's 

 

 

 

[msw2112]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Even if Singletary wants to come back on the minimum deal, his skill set is not what we need.  
 

Power. Back.  
 

Someone to take short yardage from Josh Allen. 
 

That’s not Singletary. 

 

I'm certainly not going to say that Singletary is a power back.  He's a smaller guy and definitely not a classic power back.  The Bills have been terrible on 3rd and 4th and less than 2 in recent years.  I would lose my lunch if I had to watch Moss slam into the line for no gain again.  That said, and I'm not quoting statistics here, but for those of you who watched every snap of every game like I did last season, did you not notice that Singletary was highly successful on 3rd and 4th and short last year?  He converted a ton of them.  I can't recall whether this occurred more after Moss was traded, but the results were a significant improvement over what we've seen the last couple of seasons.  I have not seen it noted here on this board (which actually surprises me), but I also have not read this entire thread.  Am I the only one to notice this?

 

On a related note, if the Bills can re-sign Singletary on a cheap deal, and focus on improving the line, I can live with that.  If the Robinson kid from Texas falls in the draft, and you can get a really talented back on a rookie contract, I could live with that too, but I don't foresee him falling to the Bills.  I could also live with a mid-round or late-round RB pick.  The issue, to me, is the line, and not the RBs.

[mabden]

Two, IFs.  If Singletary is willing to sign for a cap friendly deal, and IF he is willing and able to play Special Teams, he can take Taiwan Jones roster spot (whom the Bills have not resigned yet.)  Then Beane can draft a bruiser in the later rounds.

 

All good comments and valid points on resigning, not resigning Singletary.  Personally, I like him and think he is a very capable back.  Runs hard, good hands, blocks well, doesn't fumble much (13, lost 5, out of 817 touches) and a smart player.  He has been a great team player.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

16 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

 

That is certainly one, single stat to focus on.

 

Comparing him to a worn down Zeke Elliot...

 

Zeke: 6' 225lbs, Singletary 5'7" 205lbs, and the difference in strength shows at the goal line.

Zeke in 2022: 12 TDs, Singletary 5 TDs

Zeke in 2022: 0 Fumbles and 0 Lost, Singletary: 3 Fumbles, 3 Lost

Zeke: 52 First Downs, Singletary: 42 First Downs

 

I think one of these guys is the better compliment to Cook.

 

And this isnt trying to knock, or disparage Singletary. We could definitely do worse than bringing him back this year, and I'd welcome it. Just saying...

[Jay_Fixit]

He’s a nice 2nd RB on almost every team in the NFL. Including the Bills.

[FireChans]

16 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

Well I’m convinced. Devin Singletary is better than Frank Gore.

[Success]

I love his effort - but the big problem is that we have 3 of the same kind of back.

 

We do need a "big" back, someone for short yardage & the goal-line.  Cook & Hines are great for the rest.  Singletary is just the odd man out at this point.

 

They could bring him back and hope that bolstering the line will elevate all 3. But I'd rather have someone who can take the short yardage stuff that JA does for the most part.

 

[BillMafia716ix]

Im a Devin Singletary fan. He was underutilized his entire time here and I’m not even 100% sure James Cook is a better player. Nothing James Cook did last season  make me believe that he will be. Sure he may be a lil faster than Motor but he doesn’t break many tackles and Singletary was much better in pass protection. I didn’t like how we basically fizzled Singletary out of the offense as the season went on despite him still being productive with the limited attempts he was getting. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by BillMafia716ix

[schoolhouserock]

10 pages on something the OP claims is “inarguable”.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

That is certainly one, single stat to focus on.

 

Comparing him to a worn down Zeke Elliot...

 

Zeke: 6' 225lbs, Singletary 5'7" 205lbs, and the difference in strength shows at the goal line.

Zeke in 2022: 12 TDs, Singletary 5 TDs

Zeke in 2022: 0 Fumbles and 0 Lost, Singletary: 3 Fumbles, 3 Lost

Zeke: 52 First Downs, Singletary: 42 First Downs

 

I think one of these guys is the better compliment to Cook.

 

And this isnt trying to knock, or disparage Singletary. We could definitely do worse than bringing him back this year, and I'd welcome it. Just saying...

I think zeke will be far too expensive and I want the money spent on o-line and receivers. But point taken. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I think zeke will be far too expensive and I want the money spent on o-line and receivers. But point taken. 

 

Yeah, I hear that. I'm half hoping Zeke knows he pulled a huge fast one on the NFL getting that last $70M (good for him) and is ok making only another $10M more over the next couple of years. Hey, a guy can dream.

[OldTimer1960]

6 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

We're done on this topic,  you seem to think Singletary is a great back ti have and I don't agree if we make to improve on bringing him back.  No need to insult each other, it's ok not to agree with rock throwing.

Dude, I specifically said in the post that you are quoting: “ I (and I venture to say other “Singletary supporters”) have never said that he is a star.  He is a solid starting RB that a team can win with.”  And yet you say that I think he is great.

 

BTW, it was you who started with the condescending tone suggesting that anyone who doesn’t think Singletary sucks “doesn’t understand burst to the line”.

 

I’m happy to be done with this back and forth.

[Einstein's Dog]

19 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

True the grass isn't always greener but it doesn't mean the FO shouldn't try.  And it seems to me part of the FO plan was to not extend RBs.  Use the rookie salary up and discard.  Was a great strategy before, but now with the veteran RB glut it may not be necessary to have to go with another rookie.

 

Also I think the FO wants a larger, good short yardage, and good pass protecting RB.  This would be a great complement to Cook/Hines.  That is not what Singletary provides.  Someone like that R Johnson could be drafted around the 4th to go with a cheap vet for a year.

 

And there lingers the D Henry possibility.  This is where the FO needs to be flexible and re-route their plans if need be.  D Henry is the exception to the rule.  Henry is a physical beast that belongs in the elite talent category of player.  And don't give me ypc, Singletary is not in the same league as Henry

[Buffalo Super Fan]

I don’t believe in paying running backs, wide receivers, punters, backup quarterback’s a lot of money in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo 

[TheBrownBear]

It will be funny when our two big free agent signings turn out to be Poyer and Singletary.

[34-78-83]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Oh, and Allen is running so much and taking so many hits for several reasons, one of which is that a QB run gives you a one-man advantage, which an RB run does not. It's easier. That's surely a great deal of the reason they call lots of QB runs despite having RBs who are often successful when they run.

 

Not to mention that many of his runs come from scrambles that turn into runs.

 

And Singletary does indeed rely on quickness and making guys miss. That's why he is consistently in the top four in the NFL of forcing missed tackles.

 

 

2021 7th at missed tackles per attempt %age

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-most-elusive-running-backs-2021-season

 

 

2022 5th at missed tackles per attempt %age

https://www.rotoballer.com/fantasy-football-running-back-sleepers-missed-tackles-2022/995606#Missed_Tackles_Forced_Data    (see graph)

 

 

2019 2nd at missed tackles per attempt %age

"[Singletary] forced 0.25 missed tackles per attempt, second-best in the league. "

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-backfield-rankings-all-32-running-back-units-entering-the-2020-nfl-season

 

 

2022 6th at broken+missed tackles forced %age

https://www.fantasypros.com/2022/07/rb-broken-plus-missed-tackles-forced-percentage-analysis-2022-fantasy-football-javonte-williams-elijah-mitchell-ezekiel-elliott/

 

 

Your idea that he can't force missed tackles, that, "that is not going to happen against most NFL defensive players" is just plain wrong.

 

enough of your facts. You and the OP are doing a very good job of this all while maintaining composure.

 

What I find the most funny here is the assumption that most responders seem to be making - that you think DS should start over James Cook (I presume that not to be the case bc why would he right??) You are merely saying that DS is a solid back that is quite good at making people miss. A good fit for RB2 if the right price is reached.

 

But but but 4th and 1! Yeah QB's do those now, people.

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

True the grass isn't always greener but it doesn't mean the FO shouldn't try.  And it seems to me part of the FO plan was to not extend RBs.  Use the rookie salary up and discard.  Was a great strategy before, but now with the veteran RB glut it may not be necessary to have to go with another rookie.

 

Also I think the FO wants a larger, good short yardage, and good pass protecting RB.  This would be a great complement to Cook/Hines.  That is not what Singletary provides.  Someone like that R Johnson could be drafted around the 4th to go with a cheap vet for a year.

 

And there lingers the D Henry possibility.  This is where the FO needs to be flexible and re-route their plans if need be.  D Henry is the exception to the rule.  Henry is a physical beast that belongs in the elite talent category of player.  And don't give me ypc, Singletary is not in the same league as Henry

Singletary is actually very good in pass pro. It improves his ypc stats because defenses don’t know what’s up when he’s on the field — which is a good thing. 

[deanjf]

23 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Cook sucked at blocking last season (turnstile), although he may get better. 

Not only that but I've never seen him break a tackle.

[Einstein's Dog]

18 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary is actually very good in pass pro. It improves his ypc stats because defenses don’t know what’s up when he’s on the field — which is a good thing. 

Singletary is not an upgrade at the position.  He would be rolling back the same at a higher price -he won't be coming back on the rookie deal.

 

I think the plan has been to increase Cooks time.  And the overall RB room would improve if could get another who would excel at what Cook/Hines don't do well.  A large back that can get the short yardage and is good in pass pro.  The R Johnson type in the 4th kind of thing.  That accompanied with a short term bargain vet like Fournette or Zeke and the plan stays on point.

 

But the glut of FA RBs and the dropping of the price may be giving the FO thoughts of revising this plan.  A veteran stud may now be more reasonable - D Henry or D Cook.  And this would give the FO at least one notable improvement for year over year.

[papazoid]

time to move on....we need better

 

4.66 speed is crazy slow

[PauleeeWalnuts]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I think zeke will be far too expensive and I want the money spent on o-line and receivers. But point taken. 

I don’t know how much credence to  lend to betting odds and Matt Lombardo, but he’s reporting the Bills are the “unanimous” choice for Elliott. I don’t see how they afford him 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/.amp/news/buffalo-bills-ezekiel-elliott-dallas-cowboys-sign-rumors-contract-free-agency-josh-allen

Edited March 18, 2023 by PauleeeWalnuts

[Rico]

On 3/16/2023 at 10:16 PM, dave mcbride said:

The numbers are the numbers. Just sayin.’

And the eye test is the eye test. And I’ve seen enough. He’s OK, no doubt he’s had some good games, I’m just ready for a change there.

[John from Riverside]

18 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

Im a Devin Singletary fan. He was underutilized his entire time here and I’m not even 100% sure James Cook is a better player. Nothing James Cook did last season  make me believe that he will be. Sure he may be a lil faster than Motor but he doesn’t break many tackles and Singletary was much better in pass protection. I didn’t like how we basically fizzled Singletary out of the offense as the season went on despite him still being productive with the limited attempts he was getting. 

The pass protections concern is a legitimate argument. That is some thing that cook is definitely going to have to improve.
 

Cooki is the better receiver and it’s not close

 

I think it comes down to two things we’ve only got so much money to spend, and the potential upside of the player

 

I am going to say this I thought the cook was much better between the tackles than I was expecting last year. He’s not a grinder by any means, but he wasn’t a liability either.

Edited March 18, 2023 by John from Riverside

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

The pass protections concern is a legitimate argument. That is some thing that cook is definitely going to have to improve.
 

Cooki is the better receiver and it’s not close

 

I think it comes down to two things we’ve only got so much money to spend, and the potential upside of the player

 

I am going to say this I thought the cook was much better between the tackles than I was expecting last year. He’s not a grinder by any means, but he wasn’t a liability either.

My lone recollection of Cook’s rookie year was his early propensity to put the ball on the ground. I know he got better as the season went on but I just couldn’t shake it. I held my breath each time he touched it. (Let’s pray that’s behind him.) So I’ll stand by my earlier post that I believe the Bills plan on simply swapping the roles of Cook and Singletary with Cook getting the starter level reps.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Singletary is worth more to the Bills signing somewhere else so we get the Edmunds comp pick than he is bringing back. 

He is nothing special but he is not bad either. Doesn't have that many carries. He and Cook would be fine for another year but so would just about any other RB to pair with Cook. 

I'd rather see Fournette on a 2 yr deal. He is a big back and excellent in pass blocking. He was released do doesn't count against you in the comp pick formula.  Would be a nice compliment and veteran presence for Cook/Hines. At the right price.

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Singletary is worth more to the Bills signing somewhere else so we get the Edmunds comp pick than he is bringing back. 

He is nothing special but he is not bad either. Doesn't have that many carries. He and Cook would be fine for another year but so would just about any other RB to pair with Cook. 

I'd rather see Fournette on a 2 yr deal. He is a big back and excellent in pass blocking. He was released do doesn't count against you in the comp pick formula.  Would be a nice compliment and veteran presence for Cook/Hines. At the right price.

I don't like continuity for continuitys sake.  And I am not a big Singletary fan. And they points you make about the comp pick seem valid.  Hoever,  I felt like going into the 2022 season if you polled Bills fans on what team had the best team chemistry in the NFL, the Bills would have been a runaway number 1 pick.    That seems like it is changed now.  I don't think the Bills have any intention of resigning Singletary, but I wonder if replacing him with a similar JAG does more or less for team chemistry (as unmeasurable as that is). 

[T master]

On 3/16/2023 at 9:10 PM, BillsFanForever19 said:

I'd be shocked at this point if Singletary doesn't come back on a team friendly deal. RB's aren't banking their estimated values to begin with and he's running out of options with the amount of them that have been signed already.

 

Whether simply running back what we had last season is the right move or not is debatable. But I think the writing is on the wall that that's what we're going to do.

 

I agree & i love me some motor in Buffalo but with that if you can get a guy like Robison for around $3+ mill for 4 to 5 yrs that is as the so called experts say  a generational talent which Henry was or is too wouldn't that be much better & more cap friendly ?

 

Not to mention he has a lot less wear & tear on him & although injury is always a possibility for any player that could be less of a concern with a younger player too .

 

There is a lot to take in but i have faith in the Beanster !!!

 

 

[Punching Bag]

On 3/16/2023 at 10:10 PM, BillsFanForever19 said:

I'd be shocked at this point if Singletary doesn't come back on a team friendly deal. RB's aren't banking their estimated values to begin with and he's running out of options with the amount of them that have been signed already.

 

Whether simply running back what we had last season is the right move or not is debatable. But I think the writing is on the wall that that's what we're going to do.

 

Clearly this is a good idea for @Airseven  hates it.

Whatever team Singletary has played best at he is probably a fan of.

 

 

On 3/16/2023 at 10:16 PM, Lost said:

Singletary is incredibly consistent and healthy.   Not bad qualities to have.

 

Availability is most  important attribute.

[balln]

Ppl need to wake up DS isn’t being coveted by anyone. 
 

and for the bills it’s time to evolve. We can’t rely on keeping flawed rb / te players bc they can block . We have / had those and this bills team couldn’t get it done. Allen and the O need to evolve and get better at slip screen, delayed screen , delayed rb out the backfield , dump offs and MUCH MUCH better at timing and underneath passing game. 

[ganesh]

12 hours ago, balln said:

Ppl need to wake up DS isn’t being coveted by anyone. 
 

and for the bills it’s time to evolve. We can’t rely on keeping flawed rb / te players bc they can block . We have / had those and this bills team couldn’t get it done. Allen and the O need to evolve and get better at slip screen, delayed screen , delayed rb out the backfield , dump offs and MUCH MUCH better at timing and underneath passing game. 

I would love to see the Bills get Damien Harris.