Prime Time Josh vs Sunday 1pm Sugar Rush Josh

[freddyjj]

Albeit this year's Bills broadcast Schedule has been bizarre given the amount of Prime Time slots (Rams, Titans, Lions, NE, MIA, (KC) Late SUN CBS Nat'l feed) and then our usual SUN 1pm kickoffs.  I had a feeling there was a discrepancy between Josh on National TV vs the SUN 1pm kickoffs, and boy, it seems there is.  

 

Primetime Josh in 7 National games has an average Rating of 106,  has thrown 20 TDs and 5 INTs.  Bills are 7-0!

Sunday 1pm Sugar Rush Josh in 8 regional games average Rating of 85, has thrown 12 Tds and 8 INTs. Bills are 5-3.

 

Admittedly a small sample size, many prime time games were early in year before elbow injury and weather was an issue in 3-4 early time slot games.  I have seen many posters here surmise Josh gets really focused for the bright lights.   Food for thought here.

 

edited with Bold for emphasis and to show records in said games.  Also edited to reflect GB as prime time game, Thx @BigDingus

Edited December 28, 2022 by freddyjj

[Saint Doug]

Josh always does much better in Prime Time games. Like clockwork. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Albeit this year's Bills broadcast Schedule has been bizarre given the amount of Prime Time slots (Rams, Titans, Lions, NE, MIA, (KC) Late SUN CBS Nat'l feed) and then our usual SUN 1pm kickoffs.  I had a feeling there was a discrepancy between Josh on National TV vs the SUN 1pm kickoffs, and boy, it seems there is.  

 

Primetime Josh in 6 National games has an average Rating of 103, has thrown 18 TDs and 3 INTs.

Sunday 1pm Sugar Rush Josh in 9 regional games average rating of 84, has thrown 14 Tds and 10 INTs. 

 

Admittedly a small sample size, many prime time games were early in year before elbow injury and weather was an issue in 3-4 early time slot games.  I have seen many posters here surmise Josh gets really focused for the bright lights.   Food for thought here.

It doesn’t make sense that it’s a ‘sugar rush’ for 1pm games that doesn’t occur in prime time games with everyone watching lol I think it’s a lot more to do with the other two things you mentioned. 

[Charles Romes]

He’s also the all time number one NFL playoff passing leader, further testament to the fact he gets even better when the stakes are higher. 

 

 

Leaders

  

RankPlayerRateYearsTm

1Josh Allen106.62018-2022buf

2Patrick Mahomes105.72017-2022kan

3Bart Starr+104.81956-1971gnb

4Kurt Warner+102.81998-20092TM

5Matt Ryan100.82008-2022atl

6Aaron Rodgers100.12005-2022gnb

7Matthew Stafford99.02009-20222TM

8Nick Foles 98.82012-2022phi

9Alex Smith97.42005-20202TM

10Drew Brees97.12001-20202TM

11Joe Montana+95.61979-19942TM

12Russell Wilson95.32012-2022sea

13Mark Sanchez94.32009-2018nyj

14Ken Anderson93.51971-1986cin

15Tony Romo93.02004-2016dal

16Joe Theismann91.41974-1985was

17Tom Brady90.42000-20222TM

18Joe Flacco88.62008-2022rav

19Troy Aikman+88.31989-2000dal

20Cam Newton87.72011-2021car

[RiotAct]

makes sense; most of the candy stores are still open on Sunday mornings!

[RobbRiddick]

He's like me with sex, he can only do it to the best of his abilities when there's lots of people watching

[Logic]

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

[RobbRiddick]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

I think there might be some truth to this.

 

The better players in any sport take it up a level when it matters most. 

[Big Turk]

30 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Albeit this year's Bills broadcast Schedule has been bizarre given the amount of Prime Time slots (Rams, Titans, Lions, NE, MIA, (KC) Late SUN CBS Nat'l feed) and then our usual SUN 1pm kickoffs.  I had a feeling there was a discrepancy between Josh on National TV vs the SUN 1pm kickoffs, and boy, it seems there is.  

 

Primetime Josh in 6 National games has an average Rating of 103, has thrown 18 TDs and 3 INTs.  Bills are 6-0!

Sunday 1pm Sugar Rush Josh in 9 regional games average Rating of 84, has thrown 14 Tds and 10 INTs. Bills are 6-3.

 

Admittedly a small sample size, many prime time games were early in year before elbow injury and weather was an issue in 3-4 early time slot games.  I have seen many posters here surmise Josh gets really focused for the bright lights.   Food for thought here.

 

edited with Bold for emphasis and to show records in said games.

 

Pretty much the same as ever...PrimeTime rating in his career is 107.9 and has the highest postseason rating for a QB in NFL History.  Basically when the stage is the biggest and the lights are the brightest and the games are the most important, Allen delivers like no other.  Such a great ability to have and why I think he will win at least one SB for us...it's hard to find players like that, so many QB's shrink from the moment like Kyler Murray.

[Nephilim17]

17 minutes ago, Logic said:

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

As a version of your theory, perhaps Josh forces throws against lower-ranked competition thinking — wrongly, a lot — that they're not good enough to defend those passes.

Perhaps he makes smarter decisions against elite competition. Rather than simply making better throws. But that requires a ton of work to determine and I'm not the man for the job.

[WhoTom]

21 minutes ago, Logic said:

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

 

Nothing to roast here. I've often thought that they (not just Josh, but the entire team) play to the level of their opponent, which is why they lose some games that they should win. The cat may think it can kill the mouse at any time, but sometimes the mouse gets away.

 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by WhoTom

[strive_for_five_guy]

It is the darkest nights that produce the brightest stars.

[AuntieEm]

41 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

It doesn’t make sense that it’s a ‘sugar rush’ for 1pm games that doesn’t occur in prime time games with everyone watching lol I think it’s a lot more to do with the other two things you mentioned. 

 

  Yea I'd think it would likely be many of the 1pm games were home games and Josh tries too do more in front of the home crowd.  I'd isolate home 1pm games see how he does there vs other 1pm games.  Would possibly lend weight to above hypothesis.

Edited December 27, 2022 by AuntieEm

[Big Turk]

Allen on Monday Nights in his career: 6 games, 18 TDs, 2 INTs, 113.9 QB Rating.

31 minutes ago, Logic said:

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

 

I don't think it's dumb at all...it's almost like you are out playing with your little brother and you try some things that you wouldn't do normally against better people because you don't think it will matter ultimately and you just assume you can beat him when you need to.  Sometimes it is hard to get out of that mindset while the game is going on. Usually you see this happen after the Bills have a lead and he gets a little sloppy.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Big Turk

[AuntieEm]

24 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

I think there might be some truth to this.

 

The better players in any sport take it up a level when it matters most. 

  

  It is also human nature you work hardest on what's most important to you.   And when things are too easy is most often the time more wtf mistakes occur.  And often those simple stupid plays are hardest to shake off as a good play you just give the other player props for good play then proceed to outdo his big play with a bigger one.

 

 

[benderbender]

47 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

He's like me with sex, he can only do it to the best of his abilities when there's lots of people watching

[78thealltimegreat]

In year 5 if you haven’t figured out Josh Allen by now you never will. When he activates choose violence mode like before the Pats playoff game you can’t really stop him. 
Its usually his defense that lets him down in these kinda games. 
If the D contains Burrow enough to allow Josh a chance to win this game… he will. 
 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

That trend is FINE WITH MEEEEEEEEEE 🤩

[NickelCity]

52 minutes ago, Logic said:

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

 

It's not dumb or outlandish to point out that he plays up/down to the competition. 

[WotAGuy]

It’s such a blessing that he rises to the occasion when the lights are brightest. 

[thewookie1]

I actually don’t feel he plays down to lesser competition but rather plays too hard to the point of recklessness because he wants to bury a team in the 1st quarter. He sees the Bears as a team he can experiment on and help pad his teammates’ stats and thus looks for deeper routes while ignoring layups. 
 

His one primary exception is New England because of their “infamous” defensive prowess. He seems to almost feel even better just picking them apart like Brady used to do to the Bills. Effectively, he wants the Pats to do everything but still fail while he just finds their holes and exploits them mercilessly. Other lesser teams he seems more interested in just blowing them up versus giving cruel and unusual punishment.

[ChasBB]

Josh is 3-3 all-time on MNF ...
2020: 2-1
2021: 0-2
2022: 1-0

 

Here's his stats on MNF ...
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/josh-allen-monday-night-football

Edited December 27, 2022 by ChasBB
Make correction

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

 

 

What else did you think is insinuated when his primetime numbers are brought up?

 

It's hard to draw a different conclusion than he is clearly more focused in those higher profile matchups.

 

He needs to be like Brady and many other great QB's of the past and try to generate intensity/disdain for each opponent.

 

I think we saw Allen do that when the Bills played Denver in 2020 and he was determined to show John Elway(who had put in a good deal of time evaluating Allen as a prospect) how dumb he was for picking Bradley Chubb instead of him.

 

For all the talk about how amazing Allen's transformation to a great QB was.........the reality is that he went 7th overall in the draft.........it's not like every team passed on him multiple times in the draft like GOAT and former GOAT Tom Brady and Joe Montana.   

 

 

[3rdnlng]

The Bills have been considered a contender now for about 3 years. If they play in primetime it is most likely against a decent team. In the playoffs they're also playing against a good team with the exception of the team located near Rhode Island in which the locals speak a language that has no "R's". The book in the past has been that in order to control the Bill's offense the deep passing game needs to be shut down. The Bill's game plan expects their opponent to take that approach and he's coached to take what is given him. Even though that is against his nature he kills the other team with a thousand cuts until they loosen up on the deep throws and try to prevent the short stuff. All things considered, Josh seems to be more disciplined in the big games and doesn't stray from that if or until he's got a pretty big lead.

 

On a side note the Bills have lost some games in previous years when Josh was injured but still played. If they were primetime games that may have skewed his record.

[Shemp]

One thing I see that Josh needs to do...get rid of the "Choose Love" on the back of his helmet. It's a fatal flaw that makes him soft, makes him have mercy. He needs to be a hardass to win it all like Brady, who'd run up the score against the Bills once to 58 I remember. .

[3rdnlng]

20 minutes ago, Blah Blah said:

One thing I see that Josh needs to do...get rid of the "Choose Love" on the back of his helmet. It's a fatal flaw that makes him soft, makes him have mercy. He needs to be a hardass to win it all like Brady, who'd run up the score against the Bills once to 58 I remember. .

I'm thinking "Jail More Uyghurs" would send the right message.

[Golden]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

Yes,

He at times seems to take more risks against opponents who may not present what appears to be the same challenge as other opponents in game. 
It seems against stronger opponents, risk time comes when we have to have it.  

 

[mikemac2001]

Maybe he is bored like he knows it’s all about showtime and the playoffs 

 

not a great thing but he isn’t afraid of the spotlight so I’ll take that 

[Malazan]

I'm looking forward to seeing playoff Josh again

[ArtVandalay]

Bills are having a hard time being the hunted IMO, every opponent is amped up to play them and take a shot at the king. This team gets too high and low despite McDermott's PR to not do so. 

 

I have no doubt they will show up in Cinci. It's just a question of if they do their homework to the same level..  we'll see.

Edited December 28, 2022 by ArtVandalay

[teef]

12 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

Bills are having a hard time being the hunted IMO, every opponent is amped up to play them and take a shot at the king. This team gets too high and low despite McDermott's PR to not do so. 

 

I have no doubt they will show up in Cinci. It's just a question of if they do their homework to the same level..  we'll see.

Homework?

[ArtVandalay]

1 minute ago, teef said:

Homework?

Game planning and studying.

[teef]

Just now, ArtVandalay said:

Game planning and studying.

Did you ever start a thread discussing something like this?  I can’t seem to remember if that was you. If it was, can you link it?  You may be on to something…

[UKBillFan]

4 hours ago, AuntieEm said:

 

  Yea I'd think it would likely be many of the 1pm games were home games and Josh tries too do more in front of the home crowd.  I'd isolate home 1pm games see how he does there vs other 1pm games.  Would possibly lend weight to above hypothesis.

I really should be asleep, so this season only…

(Passer rating - passing TD - INT - rushing TD)

1pm home

Steelers: 134.1 - 4 - 1 - 0

Vikings: 78.6 - 1 - 2 -0

Jets: 86.5 - 1 - 0 - 1

Dolphins: 119.2 - 4 - 0 - 0

 

We played the Browns at 1pm Sunday but in Detroit (100.4 - 1 - 0 - 0)

 

1pm away

Dolphins: 94.7 - 2 - 0 - 0

Ravens: 68.4 - 1 - 1 - 1

Jets: 46.8 - 0 - 2 - 2

The Bills faced the Bears on a Saturday at 1pm, Josh’s record being 71.3 - 2 - 2 - 1.

 

In a pretty obvious imbalance, we’ve only had two non-Sunday 1pm games at home this year - the Titans in week two (128.9 - 4 - 0 - 0) and the Packers in week 5 (75.1 - 2 - 2 - 0).

 

Away, we’ve had five games taking place away from Sunday 1pm, the Bears noted above. Otherwise:

 

Rams: 112.0 - 3 - 2 - 1

Chiefs: 117.6 - 3 - 0 - 0

Lions: 80.8 - 2 - 1 - 1

Patriots: 106.0 - 2 - 0 - 0

 

In general, Josh has been far better in primetime (Rams, Titans, Chiefs, Packers, Patriots) then when not. The Packers is a slight anomaly where perhaps complacency set it after a dominant first half. 

 

[AlfaBill]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

I would add that he has a bit of a chip on his shoulder from not being recruited to a college and the pundits generally saying he would bust. So in the bigger game, bigger audience there’s a part of him that says ‘put this in your pipe and smoke it!’

[AuntieEm]

52 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

I really should be asleep, so this season only…

(Passer rating - passing TD - INT - rushing TD)

1pm home

Steelers: 134.1 - 4 - 1 - 0

Vikings: 78.6 - 1 - 2 -0

Jets: 86.5 - 1 - 0 - 1

Dolphins: 119.2 - 4 - 0 - 0

 

We played the Browns at 1pm Sunday but in Detroit (100.4 - 1 - 0 - 0)

 

1pm away

Dolphins: 94.7 - 2 - 0 - 0

Ravens: 68.4 - 1 - 1 - 1

Jets: 46.8 - 0 - 2 - 2

The Bills faced the Bears on a Saturday at 1pm, Josh’s record being 71.3 - 2 - 2 - 1.

 

In a pretty obvious imbalance, we’ve only had two non-Sunday 1pm games at home this year - the Titans in week two (128.9 - 4 - 0 - 0) and the Packers in week 5 (75.1 - 2 - 2 - 0).

 

Away, we’ve had five games taking place away from Sunday 1pm, the Bears noted above. Otherwise:

 

Rams: 112.0 - 3 - 2 - 1

Chiefs: 117.6 - 3 - 0 - 0

Lions: 80.8 - 2 - 1 - 1

Patriots: 106.0 - 2 - 0 - 0

 

In general, Josh has been far better in primetime (Rams, Titans, Chiefs, Packers, Patriots) then when not. The Packers is a slight anomaly where perhaps complacency set it after a dominant first half. 

 

 

  Thank you for taking time to check.  I guess basically comes down to general luck as with everybody.  Some days everything is good next day nothing goes right.  Can't always control how things unfold.

[BigDingus]

9 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Albeit this year's Bills broadcast Schedule has been bizarre given the amount of Prime Time slots (Rams, Titans, Lions, NE, MIA, (KC) Late SUN CBS Nat'l feed) and then our usual SUN 1pm kickoffs.  I had a feeling there was a discrepancy between Josh on National TV vs the SUN 1pm kickoffs, and boy, it seems there is.  

 

Primetime Josh in 6 National games has an average Rating of 103, has thrown 18 TDs and 3 INTs.  Bills are 6-0!

Sunday 1pm Sugar Rush Josh in 9 regional games average Rating of 84, has thrown 14 Tds and 10 INTs. Bills are 6-3.

 

Admittedly a small sample size, many prime time games were early in year before elbow injury and weather was an issue in 3-4 early time slot games.  I have seen many posters here surmise Josh gets really focused for the bright lights.   Food for thought here.

 

edited with Bold for emphasis and to show records in said games.

 

Are those numbers a bit off? I can remember 2 INT's against the Rams & 2 INT's vs the Packers.

[Boatdrinks]

9 hours ago, ChasBB said:

Josh is 3-3 all-time on MNF ...
2020: 2-1
2021: 0-2
2022: 1-0

 

Here's his stats on MNF ...
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/josh-allen-monday-night-football

2021 kind of weird year: “ wind game” at home vs NE.. @TEN slip on QB sneak or it’s a likely win. Prime time Josh will show up for this one. 

[freddyjj]

2 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Are those numbers a bit off? I can remember 2 INT's against the Rams & 2 INT's vs the Packers.

My bad, thanks for catching as I did not have Packers as a prime time game when it was, in fact, a SNF game.  Will edit accordingly. 

Edited December 28, 2022 by freddyjj

[Dan Darragh]

10 hours ago, ChasBB said:

Josh is 3-3 all-time on MNF ...
2020: 2-1
2021: 0-2
2022: 1-0

 

Here's his stats on MNF ...
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/josh-allen-monday-night-football

Wow, that's a great website.  I wasn't familiar with it.

 

Now there goes the rest of my day...