MVP; Hurts / Allen / Mahomes by the numbers...

[Inigo Montoya]

Record

Hurts;         13-1

Allen;          11-3

Mahomes;  11-3

 

 

Passing

Hurts;          3,472 yds   22 TDs    5 INTs    67.3 Comp %

Allen;           3,875 yds   30 TDs   11 INTs    63.7 Comp %

Mahomes;   4,496 yds  35 TDs   11 INTs    67.4 Comp %

 

Rushing

Hurts;          747 yds     13 TDs    0 Fum Lost

Allen;           705 yds      6 TDs    2 Fum Lost

Mahomes;   313 yds      3 TDs    0 Fum Lost

 

Total Yards & TDs

Hurts;         4,219 yds    35 TDs

Allen;          4,580 yds   36 TDs

Mahomes   4,809 yds   38 TDs

 

QBR

Hurts;           68.7

Allen;            71.7

Mahomes;   79.8

 

Passer Rating

Hurts;          104.6

Allen;             97.3

Mahomes;   105.0

 

Those are the pertinent stats through Week 15.  Hurts is injured and may miss this week's big game vs Dallas.  The injury might affect his play for a couple weeks (like Allen with his elbow) which could impact his standing.  Josh has a marquee MNF matchup against Burrow in Week 17 that could help or hurt him.  Mahomes doesn't have a big game left in the regular season.

 

The Associated Press determines who wins the NFL MVP.  The AP selection group is comprised of 50 sports writers and broadcasters.  The AP is changing the system for selecting the MVP this year to a ranked voting system;  

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/voting-format-for-nfl-mvp-award-undergoing-major-change-starting-with-2022-season/#:~:text=Stats-,Voting format for NFL MVP award,change%2C starting with 2022 season&text=The NFL's MVP award isn,starting with the 2022 season.

 

Strength of schedule, overall team record, individual stats, quality wins, supporting cast, the QB's personal narrative, and some behind the scene politics from NFL marketing always comes into play with the selections.

 

Watching the national sports media, there seems to be a big push by many for Hurts to win MVP.  There are a lot of media types who think Mahomes is still the best QB in football, and as the MVP has really become a de facto Top QB award, that should help him.   Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be much of a constituency in the national media for our guy.  Barring Allen setting things on fire for the rest of the season (and another bad weather game in Chicago doesn't help) Josh is likely coming in 3rd this year.

 

When it's all said and done, I suspect Josh would rather win one Lombardi than ten MVPs.  

 

 

[NewEra]

As of now, I’d give it to Hurts due to his low turnovers- but I think Josh can steal it with an epic showing vs the bengals on MNF and if we win out

[QCity]

 

 

Why start another thread?

Edited December 21, 2022 by QCity

[Wizard]

Let's get the Trophy!

 

Mahomes gets league MVP.

 

Hurts has had a great season worthy of MVP consideration. 

 

Allen is the most important player on his team. 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Its Mahomes award to lose at this point. Best numbers and tied for number 1 seed. Plus Hurts has played an easy schedule on a superior team. Mahomes easy at this point. I'd love to see Josh turn it around in last 3 weeks.

[boyst]

Can the stats for Peterman be entered?  I'd like a real world comparison if any of us ever suited up what our potential against those 3 would be. ... 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Its Mahomes award to lose at this point. Best numbers and tied for number 1 seed. Plus Hurts has played an easy schedule on a superior team. Mahomes easy at this point. I'd love to see Josh turn it around in last 3 weeks.

 

My gripe with Mahomes should they not actually finish with the #1 seed is that he did not play his best games against the best competition (Bills/Allen and Bengals/Burrow) and as a result the Chiefs and Mahomes failed to secure the #1 seed. Even if the Bills and Chiefs end up tied record wise at the end of the season there is no way Mahomes should be awarded an MVP for coming up short in the two biggest games of his regular season, ultimately costing his team. The upcoming Bengals game means everything in the MVP, IMO.

 

Currently Mahomes leads by some 240 total yards and 2 total TD's and few turnovers over Allen. That is simply not a huge disparity. 

 

Now, Hurts playing in another conference and having such few losses and turnovers compared to Allen and Mahomes that is an entirely separate debate. But there is no question the Eagles are a stacked team that has had a soft schedule. 

 

Also, to Allen's benefit the Bills have faced a much more difficult schedule than both the Chiefs and Bengals. The only team that has had an easier SOS than the Chiefs in the conference is the Raiders.

[Big Turk]

14 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Record

Hurts;         13-1

Allen;          11-3

Mahomes;  11-3

 

 

Passing

Hurts;          3,472 yds   22 TDs    5 INTs    67.3 Comp %

Allen;           3,875 yds   30 TDs   11 INTs    63.7 Comp %

Mahomes;   4,496 yds  35 TDs   11 INTs    67.4 Comp %

 

Rushing

Hurts;          747 yds     13 TDs    0 Fum Lost

Allen;           705 yds      6 TDs    2 Fum Lost

Mahomes;   313 yds      3 TDs    0 Fum Lost

 

Total Yards & TDs

Hurts;         4,219 yds    35 TDs

Allen;          4,580 yds   36 TDs

Mahomes   4,809 yds   38 TDs

 

QBR

Hurts;           68.7

Allen;            71.7

Mahomes;   79.8

 

Passer Rating

Hurts;          104.6

Allen;             97.3

Mahomes;   105.0

 

Those are the pertinent stats through Week 15.  Hurts is injured and may miss this week's big game vs Dallas.  The injury might affect his play for a couple weeks (like Allen with his elbow) which could impact his standing.  Josh has a marquee MNF matchup against Burrow in Week 17 that could help or hurt him.  Mahomes doesn't have a big game left in the regular season.

 

The Associated Press determines who wins the NFL MVP.  The AP selection group is comprised of 50 sports writers and broadcasters.  The AP is changing the system for selecting the MVP this year to a ranked voting system;  

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/voting-format-for-nfl-mvp-award-undergoing-major-change-starting-with-2022-season/#:~:text=Stats-,Voting format for NFL MVP award,change%2C starting with 2022 season&text=The NFL's MVP award isn,starting with the 2022 season.

 

Strength of schedule, overall team record, individual stats, quality wins, supporting cast, the QB's personal narrative, and some behind the scene politics from NFL marketing always comes into play with the selections.

 

Watching the national sports media, there seems to be a big push by many for Hurts to win MVP.  There are a lot of media types who think Mahomes is still the best QB in football, and as the MVP has really become a de facto Top QB award, that should help him.   Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be much of a constituency in the national media for our guy.  Barring Allen setting things on fire for the rest of the season (and another bad weather game in Chicago doesn't help) Josh is likely coming in 3rd this year.

 

When it's all said and done, I suspect Josh would rather win one Lombardi than ten MVPs.  

 

 

 

Hurts played a schedule where literally any QB in the top 25 of the NFL could look like an MVP candidate. Easiest schedule in the NFL. 32nd out of 32. He doesn't have the ability to carry the team like Mahomes or Allen does 

[Ya Digg?]

Let’s be honest this award has become a who puts up the best stats as a QB award, it’s no longer MVP. To think that it’s not is naive. When you look at the stats Mahomes has a sizable advantage over the other 2, it’s his award to lose and I’m not sure there’s enough time for either guy to catch him

[LEBills]

An MVP hasn’t won a Super Bowl since Kurt Warner in 1999….give Mahomes the award

[TFBillsfan]

If the season ended now it’s Mahomes. Lots of football left to be played though. Josh will be in contention if he plays well these next three games and the Bills win out. The bigger prize is the Lombardi trophy which I’m 100% sure is what Josh is aiming for.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Let’s be honest this award has become a who puts up the best stats as a QB award, it’s no longer MVP. To think that it’s not is naive. When you look at the stats Mahomes has a sizable advantage over the other 2, it’s his award to lose and I’m not sure there’s enough time for either guy to catch him

 

It's been a QB award for a long time. But it is antiquated to not include rushing production in the discussion of "best QB stats" in today's NFL. Mahomes has around a 6 TD and 650 yard lead on Allen if we only consider passing stats. But that lead shrinks significantly when we add in the production with their legs. 240 yards and 2 TD's can simply be the difference of one QB playing in one extra blizzard condition game than the other. Or having played three games against top 5 defenses vs just 2 games for the other QB. 

[pennstate10]

Am I crazy for saying that the media seems to like Allen, and rather than give it to Mahomes a second time, a tie goes to Allen or Hurts?

And if Hurts is hurt, then maybe Josh is favorite, so long as he wins out and plays well the rest of the way.

 

I think Allen is clearly "more valuable" than Hurts.  Hurts has a stronger supporting cast (OL, RB, WR).  Look at it this way.  If Allen was on Eagles, whats their record?  14-0 maybe?  If Hurts is on Bills, whats Bills reccord?  8-6/9-5?  Who led more comebacks?

 

Mahomes is a different story.  He's every bit as valuable as Allen, maybe more so.  But Allen is a likable guy, so it wouldnt surprise me if Meida decided to give him a win in a close race.

Edited December 21, 2022 by pennstate10
mor info

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, pennstate10 said:

Am I crazy for saying that the media seems to like Allen, and rather than give it to Mahomes a second time, a tie goes to Allen or Hurts?

And if Hurts is hurt, then maybe Josh is favorite, so long as he wins out and plays well the rest of the way.

 

I'm not sure who the 50 voters are outside of Peter King. It's basically a select few voters. There was that one Chicago guy that came out as very anti Rodgers last year. 

 

Even if they really like Allen, I don't think there are a lot of media guys that dislike Mahomes either.  

[Charles Romes]

Josh takes it with a road sweep of the top three opponents in the conference and the one seed. 

[3rdnlng]

In  a pickup game in your back yard you have a choice of Mahomes or Allen as your QB. Which one do you choose?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Hurts is going to win it. Even if Allen tops him in total TDs. I just have that feeling. It’s going to be another year where Allen has MVP worthy numbers, but ultimately comes up short for some dumb reason. FYI did not know that Mahomes also has 11 picks this year. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Its Mahomes award to lose at this point. Best numbers and tied for number 1 seed. Plus Hurts has played an easy schedule on a superior team. Mahomes easy at this point. I'd love to see Josh turn it around in last 3 weeks.

This thing is not over yet. Get a couple tds against the Bears and have a huge game in Cincy and all of a sudden the mvp is a dead heat. I think Hurts is missing at least 2 games.

[Hsker4life]

Philly has had a very weak schedule, whereas Buffalo has played one of the hardest.

[Utah John]

You could make a good argument the MVP is Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill.  Both of them would make a huge difference for any team they played for.

5 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

In  a pickup game in your back yard you have a choice of Mahomes or Allen as your QB. Which one do you choose?

I pick Mahomes, due to the gopher holes.  I'd hate to see Allen injured.

[Utah John]

6 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Am I crazy for saying that the media seems to like Allen, and rather than give it to Mahomes a second time, a tie goes to Allen or Hurts?

And if Hurts is hurt, then maybe Josh is favorite, so long as he wins out and plays well the rest of the way.

 

I think Allen is clearly "more valuable" than Hurts.  Hurts has a stronger supporting cast (OL, RB, WR).  Look at it this way.  If Allen was on Eagles, whats their record?  14-0 maybe?  If Hurts is on Bills, whats Bills reccord?  8-6/9-5?  Who led more comebacks?

 

Mahomes is a different story.  He's every bit as valuable as Allen, maybe more so.  But Allen is a likable guy, so it wouldnt surprise me if Meida decided to give him a win in a close race.

The thing is, after Allen was injured (maybe because of the injury, maybe not) he had a string of non-MVP-type games.  Defenses figured out route trees the Bills' WRs were running, and Allen tried to play hero ball too much.  The fumble at the end of the Vikings game, which denied the Bills a stone-cold win, was a bad look too.  I just don't think he wins it this year.  And besides the only MVP award I really care about is Super Bowl MVP.

[Mr. WEO]

Hurts is a bum

[Billsfan1972]

The Vikings game will cost Allen the MVP.  Three big errors that are hard to forget (Int in the endzone, fumble at goal line and the game ending int, that I still have no idea what he was thinking). 

 

Add to that not a dominating performance since the Steelers game(?).

 

Yes victories over Balt & KC (1-1 vs. Mia & NYJ), but funny looking at their opponents records everyone seems to be around .500 except the Rams(!).   

Edited December 21, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

Mahomes can get MVP every year for the rest of his career for all I care.  I just want one Lombardi. That's it.  IMO, I really don't think Allen, Mahomes or Hurts care about MVP.  They probably don't even think about it. 

[Iverwig]

If Minshew starts against Dallas that can help or hurt the case for Hurts as MVP. If Minshew happens to have a good-great game and Josh balls out the rest of the season especially in the Cincinnati game, then that will take votes away from Hurts and give more votes to Josh. As of now Mahomes is the front runner. While we would all love Josh to win the regular season MVP I think we would rather him win the Super Bowl MVP. 

[BananaB]

I get why Hurts is in the running but he should not be at the top with what he has surrounding him. Cupcake schedule too, so you can’t just say he has the best record. If the league wants a true MVP voters gotta take that ***** in to account when  making their decision. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by BananaB

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

5 minutes ago, BananaB said:

I get why Hurts is in the running but he should not be at the top with what he has surrounding him. Cupcake schedule too, so you can’t just say he has the best record. If the league wants a true MVP voters gotta take that ***** in to account when  making their decision. 

 

They don't though.  It's strictly a "Who has the biggest stats" award.

 

For me, Allen and Mahomes are such a large portion of why the Bills and Chiefs are so successful, they are really the only candidates for me.  If anything, Allen should be the front runner based on what he means to the offense.  Out of the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles.....Bills suffer extraordinarily if Allen is out.  Which is case enough for me for Allen to win MVP.  But I don't vote so, moot point. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

11 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

Let’s be honest this award has become a who puts up the best stats as a QB award, it’s no longer MVP. To think that it’s not is naive. When you look at the stats Mahomes has a sizable advantage over the other 2, it’s his award to lose and I’m not sure there’s enough time for either guy to catch him

This is true and it’s stupid haha if josh had mahomes’ offensive line he’d win mvp easily.  It’s honestly pretty crazy he has been 95% as effective as mahomes with an exponentially worse offensive line. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

59 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

The Vikings game will cost Allen the MVP.  Three big errors that are hard to forget (Int in the endzone, fumble at goal line and the game ending int, that I still have no idea what he was thinking). 

 

I think that is only the case if the Bills don't secure the #1 seed. Which seems likely since it will be tough beating the Bengals on the road and the Chiefs probably don't have another loss on the schedule.

 

But...Why should Mahomes win it if the Chiefs don't secure the #1 seed due to his failures against the Bills and Bengals?

[thenorthremembers]

Its Mahomes' to lose.  He is the best QB in football right now.   

[Mango]

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

As of now, I’d give it to Hurts due to his low turnovers- but I think Josh can steal it with an epic showing vs the bengals on MNF and if we win out

 

I think Josh will need a few epic showings to end the year to win it. Something like the Dolphins game but with a much higher completion percentage every week for the next 3 in a row. That includes a frigid and windy Chicago game.

I think Josh is certainly worth more wins for the Bills than Hurts is worth for the Eagles and is a toss up for KC. I won't argue Mahomes one way or the other. The Eagles 13-1 and low turn overs along with Mahomes passing numbers will be difficult to overcome. 

 

I am not saying what "should happen", just what I think it would take for the AP to vote JA17 for MVP with 3 weeks to go. 

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Am I crazy for saying that the media seems to like Allen, and rather than give it to Mahomes a second time, a tie goes to Allen or Hurts?

And if Hurts is hurt, then maybe Josh is favorite, so long as he wins out and plays well the rest of the way.

 

I think Allen is clearly "more valuable" than Hurts.  Hurts has a stronger supporting cast (OL, RB, WR).  Look at it this way.  If Allen was on Eagles, whats their record?  14-0 maybe?  If Hurts is on Bills, whats Bills reccord?  8-6/9-5?  Who led more comebacks?

 

Mahomes is a different story.  He's every bit as valuable as Allen, maybe more so.  But Allen is a likable guy, so it wouldnt surprise me if Meida decided to give him a win in a close race.

 

Depends. Has he played an absolute stinker like he did at the Meadlowlands? I don't say that as a knock, these guys are all humans, they are allowed a stinker now and again.  But when people start doing the "what is X's record on Y team?" they do so presuming that you never get a stinker. The way Allen played at the Jets he would have been capable of going 10-7 or something even on a weaker schedule with the Eagles. If you get the Allen from this past Saturday evening however? Well I think that guy is probably capable of getting the freaking Texans to the playoffs.

 

You see my point? Allen might well be 14-0 on the Eagles. He might have been 14-0 on the Bills, he arguably should have been at worst 12-2 right now. But then at the same token he has been the main reason we have won more than the main reason we lost. Just think it is a bit of a pointless comparison. 

 

Josh is right now the outside of the 3, but if he goes off against the Bengals on national tv, seals the #1 seed, as the Bills win out and Hurts misses multiple games or struggles then he can still steal it. 

[Mango]

39 minutes ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:

 

They don't though.  It's strictly a "Who has the biggest stats" award.

 

For me, Allen and Mahomes are such a large portion of why the Bills and Chiefs are so successful, they are really the only candidates for me.  If anything, Allen should be the front runner based on what he means to the offense.  Out of the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles.....Bills suffer extraordinarily if Allen is out.  Which is case enough for me for Allen to win MVP.  But I don't vote so, moot point. 

 

I legitimately thought that Manning should have won it in 2011 when he missed the season with his neck injury. I still do. I will die on that hill. They went from 13-3 to 2-14 and a total punchline across the NFL. 

[H2o]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

 

I legitimately thought that Manning should have won it in 2011 when he missed the season with his neck injury. I still do. I will die on that hill. They went from 13-3 to 2-14 and a total punchline across the NFL. 

Yeah, but that was also known as the "Suck for Luck" campaign. 

[jethro_tull]

But who means more to their team?  

Hurts has the most balanced roster IMHO of the three. 

It comes down to Mahomes and Allen.    I pick Josh because of the head to head victory.  

[Mango]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Depends. Has he played an absolute stinker like he did at the Meadlowlands? I don't say that as a knock, these guys are all humans, they are allowed a stinker now and again.  But when people start doing the "what is X's record on Y team?" they do so presuming that you never get a stinker. The way Allen played at the Jets he would have been capable of going 10-7 or something even on a weaker schedule with the Eagles. If you get the Allen from this past Saturday evening however? Well I think that guy is probably capable of getting the freaking Texans to the playoffs.

 

You see my point? Allen might well be 14-0 on the Eagles. He might have been 14-0 on the Bills, he arguably should have been at worst 12-2 right now. But then at the same token he has been the main reason we have won more than the main reason we lost. Just think it is a bit of a pointless comparison. 

 

Josh is right now the outside of the 3, but if he goes off against the Bengals on national tv, seals the #1 seed, as the Bills win out and Hurts misses multiple games or struggles then he can still steal it. 

 

And this will be our frustration for the eternity of the JA17 era. I certainly wouldn't trade it. But that is the Josh Allen rollercoaster we ride on. Luckily for @SDS it will keep the board pretty healthy.

 

The peak and valley is likely what is keeping Josh from being at the top of MVP odds. 

1 minute ago, H2o said:

Yeah, but that was also known as the "Suck for Luck" campaign. 

 

They legitimately sucked though.

[Chicken Boo]

If I were given a vote to cast, it would go to Hurts.  Aside from his outstanding play, a large part of the reason the Eagles only have 1 loss is because he takes care of the football.  

Edited December 21, 2022 by Chicken Boo

[jackspike]

Offensive line rankings per PFF after 14 weeks of the season:

Eagles 1

Chiefs 3

Bills 26

 

Strength of schedule Per Power Ranking Guru for games played so far:

Bills 3

Chiefs 22

Eagles 29

 

Bills lead league in dropped passes

 

Bills beat Chiefs ar Arrowhead

 

If Bills hold onto number 1 seed, id vote for Allen

[Heavy Kevi]

Josh won't win MVP. I just don't see a course for it this late in the season.

 

But I'm sure he'd prefer Super Bowl MVP anyway, and that's still very much on the table.

[TheBrownBear]

If Josh has three more games like last weekend and we finish 14-3, there's a really good chance he wins it.  Gotta think the voters will take our SOV and SOS into account and then look at the fact that he beat Mahomes, Lamar, Burrow, Tua, etc head to head.