MVP; Hurts / Allen / Mahomes by the numbers...

[LABILLBACKER]

43 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

This is true and it’s stupid haha if josh had mahomes’ offensive line he’d win mvp easily.  It’s honestly pretty crazy he has been 95% as effective as mahomes with an exponentially worse offensive line. 

You give Josh the Philly or KC OL, he'd be way ahead of Hurts or Patty on those numbers. Aside from Dawkins, Morse & maybe Bates, our OL (including depth) is awful. And it has been since 2019.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

20 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

If I were given a vote to cast, it would go to Hurts.  Aside from his outstanding play, a large part of the reason the Eagles only have 1 loss is because he takes care of the football.  

Not sure this holds a ton of water for me. His passing attack seems to be much more QB friendly with a strong running game, great Oline and schemed receivers running open. Whereas Allen has none of that. He does only have 5 INT to Mahomes and Allen with 11, but his schedule played isn't made up of great defenses faced. He's not even that much ahead of Allen in fumbles 9 to 11, and behind Mahomes who has 5! I think the team friendly context accounts for his numbers ALOT! JMHO

Edited December 21, 2022 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Scott7975]

I was told great qbs don’t throw double digit ints. Guess Mahomes sucks too then. 

[Billsfan1972]

59 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I think that is only the case if the Bills don't secure the #1 seed. Which seems likely since it will be tough beating the Bengals on the road and the Chiefs probably don't have another loss on the schedule.

 

But...Why should Mahomes win it if the Chiefs don't secure the #1 seed due to his failures against the Bills and Bengals?

Because those would have been considered "team" losses, vs. 3 very bad mistakes that will be pinned on Allen. 

 

Plus the narrative that he has done it with a new receiving core and loss of Hill.

 

Not saying it is right, but the National Media doesn't like to throw Mahomes under the bus.  

[3rdnlng]

5 hours ago, Utah John said:

You could make a good argument the MVP is Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill.  Both of them would make a huge difference for any team they played for.

I pick Mahomes, due to the gopher holes.  I'd hate to see Allen injured.

Your bear traps weren't enough?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

20 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Because those would have been considered "team" losses, vs. 3 very bad mistakes that will be pinned on Allen. 

 

Plus the narrative that he has done it with a new receiving core and loss of Hill.

 

Not saying it is right, but the National Media doesn't like to throw Mahomes under the bus.  

I don’t think the mvp voters get too into individual game performances like that but if they did josh did blow that Vikings second half sure,  but he also pulled off quite a few impressive comebacks against good teams where he put the team on his back.  KC has kind of been bumbling along just edging out bad teams

 

If buffalo and kc both win out, I’d expect mvp to go to josh assuming he plays well.  He will have a win over just about every team in the afc playoff picture and he will be likely leading his team in rushing. Not sure how much this effects things but hurts might miss a couple games down the stretch here; I’d expect him to sit week 18 with the 1 seed locked up and he could miss the Dallas game due to injury 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[BearNorth]

I just took a look, and not only does Mahomes play behind a better O-Line, [Dawkins is the only player on our O-Line better than any of their 5], but because of the injury bug, we haven't been very consistent with our O-line.  The Chiefs starters as a unit have played 94% of their snaps.  The Bills starters as a unit have played 84% of the snaps.  KC has only one reserve [Allegretti] with any significant number of snaps, we have three, Quessenberry, VanRoten, and [shudder] Hart.

[HappyDays]

42 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

If I were given a vote to cast, it would go to Hurts.  Aside from his outstanding play, a large part of the reason the Eagles only have 1 loss is because he takes care of the football.  

 

He has the luxury of taking care of the ball because he doesn't have to be the team's entire offense. Allen and Mahomes don't have the luxury of the best run offense in football, the best OL in football, and two #1 WRs. If they don't put it all on the line every week their teams will lose most games, and yes that leads to turnovers but it also leads to unbelievable plays that are necessary to win the game. Case in point the Texans and Dolphins arguably outplayed the Chiefs and Bills in their respective matches last weekend, the only reason their teams won is because of the QB play. I'll be surprised if the Eagles offense drops off that far with Gardner Minshew but we'll see.

[BullBuchanan]

Allen isn't in the race. It's Hurts and Mahomes unless they both get hurt and Allen goes off the remaining games. Even then I'm not sure. Allen;s shot to win was last year.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

27 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Because those would have been considered "team" losses, vs. 3 very bad mistakes that will be pinned on Allen. 

 

Plus the narrative that he has done it with a new receiving core and loss of Hill.

 

Not saying it is right, but the National Media doesn't like to throw Mahomes under the bus.  

 

Mahomes literally threw a game ending INT against the Bills when they had plenty of time to drive for the win. He had two turnovers for the game. Allen only had one fumble that shouldn't even count against him since it was McKenzie's mistake.

[Billsfan1972]

9 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Allen isn't in the race. It's Hurts and Mahomes unless they both get hurt and Allen goes off the remaining games. Even then I'm not sure. Allen;s shot to win was last year.

And all things, especially health considered, the next 5-7 years too.  

 

Look voters won't consider the weather, the OL, Drops (lack of bigtime catches) or the things us fans see every week from Allen.

 

They will see the lull in weeks 8-10, two spotty performances vs. NYJ and the Viking second half/OT.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

20 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Not sure how much this effects things but hurts might miss a couple games down the stretch here; I’d expect him to sit week 18 with the 1 seed locked up and he could miss the Dallas game due to injury 

 

He might sit out the next two games and come back for the week 18 game so he has some playing time before the Divisional game two weeks later. That is how I would handle the Hurts injury. 

 

Best case for Hurts is that Minshew looks terrible this week in a Cowboys blow out. Looks meh the following week. And Hurts has a big week 18 game.

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Mahomes literally threw a game ending INT against the Bills when they had plenty of time to drive for the win. He had two turnovers for the game. Allen only had one fumble that shouldn't even count against him since it was McKenzie's mistake.

Yes but compared to the Viking second half/ot, doesn't compare.  The Int at the end of the KC game was a great defensive play and pressure. Josh's ints vs. Minny were just outright bad (and then there was the fumble). 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And all things, especially health considered, the next 5-7 years too.  

 

Look voters won't consider the weather, the OL, Drops (lack of bigtime catches) or the things us fans see every week from Allen.

 

They will see the lull in weeks 8-10, two spotty performances vs. NYJ and the Viking second half/OT.  

 

I'm not sure that is entirely the case. It's only 50 voters. Guys like Peter King. If it were open to 200 media guys I could see that being the case. I'd like to think guys like King actually dig much deeper than just the raw stats. It will be interesting how changing it to a rank system changes the voting process.

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yes but compared to the Viking second half/ot, doesn't compare.  The Int at the end of the KC game was a great defensive play and pressure. Josh's ints vs. Minny were just outright bad (and then there was the fumble). 

 

Minny game won't matter come end of season if the Bills win out and get the #1 seed. Meanwhile Mahomes failures will have cost his team the #1 seed. 

 

I keep repeating it but the Bengals game is huge. That's two top dogs both at the QB position and team level going at it. Whoever wins that game moves up a lot in the MVP rankings.

[947]

Nobody ever considers weather conditions when judging the MVP race, just raw stats. Allen has already had multiple bad weather games, and has at least 1 more on tap. Mahomes almost never has to deal with rain, snow, or ridiculous winds. He has that advantage every year.

 

It's gonna be hard for Josh to ever win an MVP because of his home city weather, but nobody can argue that he's not the player most important to his team in the entire league. We'd be in the running for a top-5 pick without him.

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I'm not sure that is entirely the case. It's only 50 voters. Guys like Peter King. If it were open to 200 media guys I could see that being the case. I'd like to think guys like King actually dig much deeper than just the raw stats. It will be interesting how changing it to a rank system changes the voting process.

 

Minny game won't matter come end of season if the Bills win out and get the #1 seed. Meanwhile Mahomes failures will have cost his team the #1 seed. 

 

I keep repeating it but the Bengals game is huge. That's two top dogs both at the QB position and team level going at it. Whoever wins that game moves up a lot in the MVP rankings.

Cincy game if he lights them up for 375 and a mistake free 38-35 victory may do it.

 

And Peter King too seems to miss a lot of the little things Allen does from his most recent article.  

 

I'm not at all worried about the MVP, just responding here to some points.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

I don't believe mvp is anything allen is thinking or worrying about receiving that honor. he cares about nothing more than hoisting a lombardi trophy.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

35 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yes but compared to the Viking second half/ot, doesn't compare.  The Int at the end of the KC game was a great defensive play and pressure. Josh's ints vs. Minny were just outright bad (and then there was the fumble). 

I don’t think the mahomes game ending int against buffalo was any better...honestly I think it was worse.    Davis was open on a post on that ot pick vs Minnesota and Allen just missed the throw badly.  It really wasn’t a bad read he just threw the ball like sh*t and it was way behind Davis.  I’m sure it was at least partly due to his banged up elbow.  An overwhelming majority of the time that’s an incompletion or a td. 
 

mahomes’ pick he held the ball way too long to make that throw…it wasn’t a good decision and if you’re gonna double clutch a throw like that there’s a good chance the defense is gonna jump the route.  Once he pumped you’ve gotta eat that sack or try to throw it away.  

Edited December 21, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[frostbitmic]

I'd vote for Josh but I'm biased.

 

Mahomes has the best stats and most TDs, but Allen is close AND Allen beat Mahomes and the Chiefs.

 

Hurts is having a great season BUT he isn't on Allen or Mahomes level.

[BearNorth]

Josh is focused on the prolate spheroid on a pyramid called the Lombardi Trophy.  All this other stuff is noise.

Edited December 21, 2022 by BearNorth

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I don’t think the mahomes game ending int against buffalo was any better...honestly I think it was worse.    Davis was open on a post on that ot pick vs Minnesota and Allen just missed the throw badly.  It really wasn’t a bad read he just threw the ball like sh*t and it was way behind Davis.  I’m sure it was at least partly due to his banged up elbow.  An overwhelming majority of the time that’s an incompletion or a td. 
 

mahomes’ pick he held the ball way too long to make that throw…it wasn’t a good decision and if you’re gonna double clutch a throw like that there’s a good chance the defense is gonna jump the route.  Once he pumped you’ve gotta eat that sack or try to throw it away.  

Say what you will, but when Allen released the ball vs. Minny I thought TD as there was no need to throw in the endzone as still lot's of room to work with and options (was second down).  Then to see it no where close to a receiver and a simple int I was flabbergasted.    

 

We all are Allen fans, but that second half and the mistakes were just terrible.  

 

Of course would have been moot if either he doesn't fumble at the goal line or (and yes I'm throwing Diggs under the bus, because of the play and a drop) Allen's perfect pass to him on third & 15 with 3:40 left was caught (would have pretty much ended the game). 

 

Give the Bills defense credit on the Mahomes int, good pressure, great int.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Say what you will, but when Allen released the ball vs. Minny I thought TD as there was no need to throw in the endzone as still lot's of room to work with and options (was second down).  Then to see it no where close to a receiver and a simple int I was flabbergasted.    

 

We all are Allen fans, but that second half and the mistakes were just terrible.  

 

Of course would have been moot if either he doesn't fumble at the goal line or (and yes I'm throwing Diggs under the bus, because of the play and a drop) Allen's perfect pass to him on third & 15 with 3:40 left was caught (would have pretty much ended the game). 

 

Give the Bills defense credit on the Mahomes int, good pressure, great int.  

Oh yea they were both bad mistakes…but I’d take a bad throw over a big time mental error personally though.  Davis had a step and Harrison smith got pulled by the inside route so there was a ton of room to get the ball for a td or at the very worst an incompletion. it really wasn’t a bad read by any means.   Also Allen hit knox on a perfect pass the previous play that he certainly could’ve made a play on.  I think josh gets SOME goodwill back for the fg drive to tie it up late too (despite gabe getting away with that drop)

 

idk I’m not that high on that mahomes play.  He sees the route isn’t there and double pumps the ball and the pressure is coming so he’s like ehhh let’s just throw it anyway.  It wasn’t like taron jumped the route out of nowhere, mahomes completely telegraphed it.  If pressure is an excuse for bad qb play then josh gets way more points added than mahomes because our offensive line is poop 😂

 

certainly not trying to minimize Josh’s mistakes…he made too many in that second half.  But mahomes blew that bills game every bit as much as Allen blew the Vikings game imo 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Billsfan1972]

19 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Oh yea they were both bad mistakes…but I’d take a bad throw over a big time mental error personally though.  Davis had a step and Harrison smith got pulled by the inside route so there was a ton of room to get the ball for a td or at the very worst an incompletion. it really wasn’t a bad read by any means.   Also Allen hit knox on a perfect pass the previous play that he certainly could’ve made a play on.  I think josh gets SOME goodwill back for the fg drive to tie it up late too (despite gabe getting away with that drop)

 

idk I’m not that high on that mahomes play.  He sees the route isn’t there and double pumps the ball and the pressure is coming so he’s like ehhh let’s just throw it anyway.  It wasn’t like taron jumped the route out of nowhere, mahomes completely telegraphed it.  If pressure is an excuse for bad qb play then josh gets way more points added than mahomes because our offensive line is poop 😂

 

certainly not trying to minimize Josh’s mistakes…he made too many in that second half.  But mahomes blew that bills game every bit as much as Allen blew the Vikings game imo 

You mean another pass that just once you want to see a Bill make a play on.  Wasn't an easy catch, but certainly catchable. 

 

Again you're right about the Allen int, but those were passes he didn't miss until the second half this year.

 

I like Mahomes and yes some blame belongs to him, but still was a great int.  These were the plays the Bills made early in season. 

[Jerome007]

Hurts has THIRTEEN rush TDs and more running yards than Josh? I didn't know that

[Chicken Boo]

5 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Not sure this holds a ton of water for me. His passing attack seems to be much more QB friendly with a strong running game, great Oline and schemed receivers running open. Whereas Allen has none of that. He does only have 5 INT to Mahomes and Allen with 11, but his schedule played isn't made up of great defenses faced. He's not even that much ahead of Allen in fumbles 9 to 11, and behind Mahomes who has 5! I think the team friendly context accounts for his numbers ALOT! JMHO

 

There are no great defenses outside of maybe San Francisco.  Today's rules have made it near impossible.

 

Fact remains, Hurts has 8 less turnovers than Allen.  That's a lot, especially considering the red zone turnovers by Josh.

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

He has the luxury of taking care of the ball because he doesn't have to be the team's entire offense. Allen and Mahomes don't have the luxury of the best run offense in football, the best OL in football, and two #1 WRs. If they don't put it all on the line every week their teams will lose most games, and yes that leads to turnovers but it also leads to unbelievable plays that are necessary to win the game. Case in point the Texans and Dolphins arguably outplayed the Chiefs and Bills in their respective matches last weekend, the only reason their teams won is because of the QB play. I'll be surprised if the Eagles offense drops off that far with Gardner Minshew but we'll see.

 

Then I suggest KC and Buffalo do a better job of team building.  

 

Allen and Mahomes are fully capable of taking what the defense gives them, but they believe in their talent a little too much at times and it costs them.  

 

Thems the breaks.

[CoffeeDrip]

I’ve been in the Hurts camp since Allen’s slump, but it might just be because of his impact on my fantasy team this season…

[Big Blitz]

Allen 

Mahomes

Burrow

Jefferson

Hurts

 

In that order if the season ended today.  
 

The worst thing that can happen to Hurts chances is if Minshew beats Dallas this week and I think they will.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

The MVP is a media talking point as they endlessly rank Top 10 lists.

 

As the fans have answered here, nobody cares about it.

 

Nobody walks around with a 2019 Lamar Jackson MVP shirt.

[HomeTeam]

Some Bills fans are enamored with Josh winning the MVP. All that matters is that we win the Superbowl.

 

Besides, Josh will eventually win the award either this year or sometime in the near future. 

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:

 

They don't though.  It's strictly a "Who has the biggest stats" award.

 

For me, Allen and Mahomes are such a large portion of why the Bills and Chiefs are so successful, they are really the only candidates for me.  If anything, Allen should be the front runner based on what he means to the offense.  Out of the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles.....Bills suffer extraordinarily if Allen is out.  Which is case enough for me for Allen to win MVP.  But I don't vote so, moot point. 

 

 

how many games the Chiefs win without mahomes?

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

how many games the Chiefs win without mahomes?

 

Exactly.  No 2 players in the league do more for their teams then Allen and Mahomes - their stats say so and their teams records say so.  
 

Burrow is close but the talent he has and the crap schedule he (and Hurts) have played lead me to vote for someone else.  
 

 

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

how many games the Chiefs win without mahomes?

5

[Chicharito]

Justin Jefferson is and should be the MVP. He has  a B list QB  and this dude makes him look elite. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I think Josh has an outside shot looking in. The Monday night Bengals game, on the road, vs. the reigning AFC Champions who are playing very good football and in the 1 seed conversation, will loom large.

 

If he goes out and lights in up and the biggest stage football has to offer, in a meaningful game, vs a quality opponent, I think he’s right in the conversation

[TBBills]

Josh Allen- real MVP

Hurts- popular highlight MVP

Mahomes- Not MVP, I would like to see him without Kelcey

[BananaB]

Hurts getting MVP with a pro bowl WR, RB and 3 olineman is just comical to me. 

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Hurts getting MVP with a pro bowl WR, RB and 3 olineman is just comical to me. 

I think you are being tough on Hurts, but when I see highlights (vs. every game Allen plays), what I see are receivers running wide open, runs often where it is like the sea parting (last weeks TD run vs. Chicago was a 25 yard walk into the end zone) and the one thing we never see with Allen is receivers winning battles and making that difficult catch.

 

Allen, outside Diggs, I can think of 3-4 great catches this year.

[PatsFanNH]

On 12/20/2022 at 9:53 PM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It's been a QB award for a long time. But it is antiquated to not include rushing production in the discussion of "best QB stats" in today's NFL. Mahomes has around a 6 TD and 650 yard lead on Allen if we only consider passing stats. But that lead shrinks significantly when we add in the production with their legs. 240 yards and 2 TD's can simply be the difference of one QB playing in one extra blizzard condition game than the other. Or having played three games against top 5 defenses vs just 2 games for the other QB. 

If that’s the case then Hurts is beating out both of them. The fact is Hurts is the front runner and has been for awhile. He is the media darling right now and they decide the winner so unless something odd happens he is winning the  MVP.

 

Also to the person called the Dallas game a BIG game. It really isn’t the Eagles have the East all wrapped up. The only chance Dallas has is if they win out and the Eagles lose out.. heck if the eagles win 2 of the last 3 they have a first round by.. Guaranteed.. (and assuming everyone else wins out is the only way they lose the 1 seed going 1 and 2 )

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

What no Jalen Hurts? must be nice to have the receivers he has!

[JESSEFEFFER]

20 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

If that’s the case then Hurts is beating out both of them. The fact is Hurts is the front runner and has been for awhile. He is the media darling right now and they decide the winner so unless something odd happens he is winning the  MVP.

 

Also to the person called the Dallas game a BIG game. It really isn’t the Eagles have the East all wrapped up. The only chance Dallas has is if they win out and the Eagles lose out.. heck if the eagles win 2 of the last 3 they have a first round by.. Guaranteed.. (and assuming everyone else wins out is the only way they lose the 1 seed going 1 and 2 )

I took "big" in the sense of MVP narrative.  If Minshew plays an effective game and the Eagles win comfortably over one of the toughest opponents on their schedule, one might assume that it might diminish the Hurts' MVP scenario.  I am not sure I buy that reasoning but I could see some thinking that way.