Week 15: Dolphins at Bills on Saturday Night Football

[finn]

10 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Snow on its own has a negative impact on the offense but probably not as much as people think.  It’s really the wind/visibility that’s the killer and this storm doesn’t sound like it’s going to be awful in either of those departments 

The wind and visibility will help the Dolphins, who otherwise couldn't keep up with the Bills on either side of the ball. Just like the wind game against the Pats and the heat game in Miami. Frustrating. This game will come down to who turns the ball over where how often. If the Bills throw deep, throw anywhere to McKenzie, or return punts in these conditions, they deserve to lose. But I expect them to win simply because they're better.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The o/u for the Miami game was 54.5

The o/u for this game is 44.5

 

I’d be shocked if the weather didn’t have a negative effect on the total score.  Vegas agrees.  

 

It’s hard to say how much though…our defense is healthier than the last meeting and both offenses look considerably worse 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

48 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The Chargers have more dynamic weapons than the Bills. Eckler, Allen, and Williams to name a few. Basically, the Bills have Diggs and who knows who from game to game. Add in the Bills Oline in not good either.

 

Agree that Josh is special. However, he's dialed it back for many games now. We haven't seen a Bills offense that's explosive and dangerous in many many games. In fact, it's pretty much the opposite. The offense has failed to close out games and teams repeatedly in recent games. I no longer see this offense as scary or dangerous. The Oline has trouble protecting Josh, the Bills run game is sporadic, the pass catchers are inconsistent with the exception of Diggs, and Dorsey is learning on the job.

 

I like the moves of getting Brown and Beasley because you have nothing to lose. However, these moves aren't a glaring endorsement of a well functioning offensive juggernaut.

 

I suspect from here on out the Bills will be in many close games. No more boat racing teams. Great thing is they are battle tested and able to win tight close games. 

The Chargers have been without Keenan Allen for 7.5 games, Mike Williams for 4 games and . 

 

You do see a lot of check downs in their games, they lean on Ekeler a lot to run after catch. 

 

But Palmer and Carter have stepped up at times. 

 

Their bar is right around 23 points a game, regardless if Herbert goes above 300-yards. 

 

I will be watching to see if they can crank it up to 30 these last four games. 

 

 

I agree with a lot of things in this post regarding the Bills offense. 

 

1. The RT is bad. And because he gets beat almost immediately every other play, Josh is on the move constantly. 

 

2. The sporadic run game. Agree, and we don't have an OC who sticks with it in any manner for 4-quarters. Dorsey abandons the run. Cook's carries/touches go up and down every game. You'll have a 16-yard Singletary run, and then he'll get the ball 4 times the rest of the game as well. He's passing when he should be draining the clock. His answers about balance make no sense. Of course when he is talking about balance, it's not 50/50. But there is no commitment to run the ball. He, at least, recognizes the value of Josh Allen designed runs, and has not take them out of the offense. 

 

3. In terms of the pass catchers:  

Gabe Davis - It looks like he runs two routes - the go, and the deep comeback along the sideline. Before Patrick Peterson said anything, that's what I was noticing as well. That said, I thought he was going to translate this year. Unless we're always going to get Playoff Gabe when it counts, you're getting 3 catches for 35 yards otherwise. 

 

Dawson Knox - I wonder if he should be the 2nd option in the pass offense. How long can you wait for Gabe? Despite the screen shots showing him open, he doesn't get the ball.

 

Isaiah McKenzie - I was wrong on him. Thought he could bring more speed to the offense. He's shown that he is a role player. There are games where he shines, Detroit, for one. But he's the opposite of a consistent player. 

 

4. I listen to Dorsey and I'm not sure if any consistency will be developed. There are 4-games left. So establishing new rhythms and norms now? I don't see it. 

a. I don't think Gabe is suddenly going to run new patterns. 

b. I don't expect any Hines package at this point. He's a punt/kick returner and that's it now. 

c. The ship has sailed on Shakir this season. 

d. Cook is going to have 14 carries one game, 2 the next game, regardless of production. 

e. The expectation is that Beasley slides back in and starts touching the ball. I think he'll play, I just don't expect Dorsey to consistently feature him. 

 

F. And finally, another poster said it best. The Bills are in the conversation with the best AFC offenses because of Allen's greatness. It's the only trait of the Bills that matches Patrick Mahomes talent and Andy Reid's play design, or the weapons around Joe Burrow. We don't get that level outside of Allen and Diggs. 

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

5 minutes ago, wolfpack78 said:

When do practice squad elevations for a Saturday night game need to be announced by?  I seem to recall for the Thursday Pats game they had until 4 PM of game day.  Is that the same for tomorrow?

Yes, Bills have until 4 PM tomorrow to elevate

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, finn said:

The wind and visibility will help the Dolphins, who otherwise couldn't keep up with the Bills on either side of the ball. Just like the wind game against the Pats and the heat game in Miami. Frustrating. This game will come down to who turns the ball over where how often. If the Bills throw deep, throw anywhere to McKenzie, or return punts in these conditions, they deserve to lose. But I expect them to win simply because they're better.

The dolphins have major issues when their offensive timing gets disrupted so I think they’re gonna struggle a lot more than us with a snowy field.  Snow should ‘help’ the receivers run routes because they know where they’re going and will slip less than the dbs but the timing of their breaks will be completely different with lower traction. I think it’s gonna come down to which qb is better at improvising and these two guys are polar opposites in that regard 
 

tua is a robot that makes pretty much one read and throws the ball to a spot on the field where he would’ve expected a receiver to be if the play was run perfectly. I don’t think he ever really learned to play qb since his college offense was just so much more physically talented than their opponents every week so they built a system around him getting the ball out quick on predetermined reads to physical freaks at wr.
 

kind of reminds me of Goff the year the rams got spanked by the pats in the Super Bowl.  A good defense will give the dolphins absolute fits but they will blow out bad teams 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[WotAGuy]

Curious if this will change the Bills CB play against Hill and Waddle. I’m thinking they won’t want to use as much press coverage because if the CB slips, it’s a TD. Maybe they will play more zone and keep everything in front of them. 

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

It’s hard to say how much though…our defense is healthier than the last meeting and both offenses look considerably worse 

You’re right, it’s hard to say how much.  
 

I’m right in that the weather 💯 caused the o/u to drop some.  
 

edit:  I chimed in on the conversation quoting someone that said “snow favors the offense”.  If that were the case- the o/u would be higher than 44.5-  Vegas is smart

Edited December 16, 2022 by NewEra

[Greg S]

18 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

Talk about being a sissy

 

That dude is an example of what is wrong with today's generation

 

If things are tough...or if it hurts your feelings...the solution is to cancel it altogether. 

 

The Dan LeTard show is exactly where I would expect to find such trash takes

 

I live in NJ and while we don't get as much snow as WNY we do get our share of storms. Over the years recently they have closed schools when there was a threat of snow. A THREAT OF SNOW. When I was a kid, you needed at least 6 inches on the ground before they would even think about closing schools. 

[jletha]

48 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Then why does Vegas lower the o/u for every game that is expecting lots of snow?

So youre right. But I want to amend my statement. Snow favors offense in the matchup of skill positions vs defenders. So if you can get the skill position players the ball offense will win. The snow really impacts the lines and QB play though, so I think overall scoring drops. So on a wholistic level, yes snow favors defense. But what I was replying to was, I believe, a statement about the snow neutralizing Hills speed which is what I was focusing on in my mind. It just didnt come out of my fingers tips clearly.

[Kenosha2Buffalo]

Diggs didn't practice all week?

[Goin Breakdown]

2 minutes ago, Kenosha2Buffalo said:

Diggs didn't practice all week?

He'll play. The guy could lose an arm and he'd be out there. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

 

If they to postpone this game like Sal M. and others are suggesting I'm going to fight somebody.

 

I've been dreaming about this game being on Saturday all year.  

 

We Western New Yorkers are battle hardened folk.  The fear would be if it is dangerously cold, and it doesn't appear that is going to be the case. Maybe under freezing in the high 20s, but that is out in the elements, not when stranded.  Additionally, I would imagine there will be special attention paid before, after and during around the stadium and road ways with highway and maintenance crews.

 

Doesn't change my feelings for prayers for everyone going to this game.  It is going to memorable.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[Logic]

10 minutes ago, Kenosha2Buffalo said:

Diggs didn't practice all week?

I think you read the injury report wrong.

He practiced in full on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a Vet Rest Day on Thursday. He's good to go.

[Warcodered]

10 minutes ago, Kenosha2Buffalo said:

Diggs didn't practice all week?

He had a vet rest day on Thursday that's it as far as I can see.

[dollars 2 donuts]

15 minutes ago, Kenosha2Buffalo said:

Diggs didn't practice all week?

 

 

Jeepers-Creepers! What the hell are you trying to do to me?!!!!!!!

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

 

[ColoradoBills]

22 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

I broke up with a girl because I didn't like her cat. 

 

Well yeah.  If you don't like the pussycat you got to move on.

[WotAGuy]

I love how they say that bad weather favors the offense because “the receivers know where they’re going”.  

Do they only know this in bad weather?  

 

On a sunny day, do they not know where they are going?

[QLBillsFan]

59 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

Talk about being a sissy

 

That dude is an example of what is wrong with today's generation

 

If things are tough...or if it hurts your feelings...the solution is to cancel it altogether. 

 

The Dan LeTard show is exactly where I would expect to find such trash takes

Hmm what did this D Hat think about the 🥵 extreme heat and opponents bench position? Seems it provides the Phins a huge competitive advantage. But he doesn’t have the grit to attempt to compete in the winter elements! Soft as a pillow! One of the classics of all time was the ICE 🧊 bowl!!!

[Nineforty]

3 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

I love how they say that bad weather favors the offense because “the receivers know where they’re going”.  

Do they only know this in bad weather?  

 

On a sunny day, do they not know where they are going?

And if you take it a step further (pun unintended), someone (my brain initially) will say, "yeah but once the receiver sticks his foot in ground to cut, the defender will have to react and because of the snow, his reaction and time it takes to cut/accelerate will be slower than usual."

 

To which I reply, wouldn't the receivers' cut be slower than usual as well (and what if the receiver slips due to surface? Advantage defense.)

 

 

Is this just something everyone has said for so long? Or is there a valid counterpoint?

[Steptide]

37 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

If they to postpone this game like Sal M. and others are suggesting I'm going to fight somebody.

 

I've been dreaming about this game being on Saturday all year.  

 

We Western New Yorkers are battle hardened folk.  The fear would be if it is dangerously cold, and it doesn't appear that is going to be the case. Maybe under freezing in the high 20s, but that is out in the elements, not when stranded.  Additionally, I would imagine there will be special attention paid before, after and during around the stadium and road ways with highway and maintenance crews.

 

Doesn't change my feelings for prayers for everyone going to this game.  It is going to memorable.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

While I would understand the disappointment, they have to take fan safety into account also. I can't even imagine trying to leave the stadium Saturday night if it's as bas as they're saying. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Steptide

[Warcodered]

25 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I just wish our O-line would stop helping him work on these stats.

[Greg S]

Just now, Steptide said:

While I would understand the dissapontment, they have to take fan safety into account also. I can't even imagine trying to leave the stadium Saturday night if it's as bas as they're saying. 

 

Fans will still tailgate. Drinking and driving is bad but drinking and driving in a bad snowstorm. What could possibly go wrong.

[nucci]

1 minute ago, Steptide said:

While I would understand the disappointment, they have to take fan safety into account also. I can't even imagine trying to leave the stadium Saturday night if it's as bas as they're saying. 

agree, especially at night

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

I just wish our O-line would stop helping him work on these stats.

 

I wish Beane would help our OL (draft) so they could help Josh working on those stats.

[Blank Stare]

If the game conditions are anything like the Colts snow game from a few years ago, then this game will suck from a pure football standpoint. At some point it simply devolves into survival. I was happy we won, but I remember really hating that game because it wasn’t good football. 

[RiotAct]

45 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

If they to postpone this game like Sal M. and others are suggesting I'm going to fight somebody.

 

I've been dreaming about this game being on Saturday all year.  

 

We Western New Yorkers are battle hardened folk.  The fear would be if it is dangerously cold, and it doesn't appear that is going to be the case. Maybe under freezing in the high 20s, but that is out in the elements, not when stranded.  Additionally, I would imagine there will be special attention paid before, after and during around the stadium and road ways with highway and maintenance crews.

 

Doesn't change my feelings for prayers for everyone going to this game.  It is going to memorable.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

there’s no way it’s getting postponed.  None.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

19 hours ago, mannc said:

There's still 48 hours until game time...unfortunately, the precedent for moving the games due to snow has been set, so it's always a possibility.  But I hope you're right.   

The precedent is set for moving the game when 7 feet of snow falls on Orchard Park. This won't even get to 2 feet. 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Roundybout said:

 

An interesting comparison of Allen’s stats over the last few seasons. He’s better than last year in a few things. 

 

Steven Ruiz's opinion on anything related to Josh Allen is useless.

 

 

[No_Matter_What]

40 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Well that's great now I see what Beane had in mind when constructing this OL

[eball]

19 hours ago, mannc said:

You can bet the Dolphins are on the horn to the league, trying to get the game moved to Detroit (Lions are on the road this w/e).  I wonder if moving the game to Sunday is in play, or if that would even help...

 

19 hours ago, mannc said:

There's still 48 hours until game time...unfortunately, the precedent for moving the games due to snow has been set, so it's always a possibility.  But I hope you're right.   

 

These are two pretty ridiculous posts.  This is "normal" Buffalo weather, not "thunder snow" with accumulations of 6+ feet.  There is no "precedent" set.

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, eball said:

 

 

These are two pretty ridiculous posts.  This is "normal" Buffalo weather, not "thunder snow" with accumulations of 6+ feet.  There is no "precedent" set.

A precedent was certainly set…the question is whether it will apply only when there is six feet of snow, or whether it might be applied in lesser cases, as well.  

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, eball said:

 

 

These are two pretty ridiculous posts.  This is "normal" Buffalo weather, not "thunder snow" with accumulations of 6+ feet.  There is no "precedent" set.

 

Agree...2-3' is very manageable by WNY standards even tho across most of the country they would be stunned to see this. It's not falling all at once, it is expected over 48-72 hours.  We will be fine. Likely moving slower than normal, but fine.

[Kenosha2Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I think you read the injury report wrong.

He practiced in full on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a Vet Rest Day on Thursday. He's good to go.

 

I definitely did, my mistake 

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

A precedent was certainly set…the question is whether it will apply only when there is six feet of snow, or whether it might be applied in lesser cases, as well.  

 

Yes...it was set.  When there is 6+ feet of snow, games need to be moved.

[RoyBatty is alive]

9 minutes ago, mannc said:

A precedent was certainly set…the question is whether it will apply only when there is six feet of snow, or whether it might be applied in lesser cases, as well.  

Asinine.

 

That is like saying some times move a game due an upcoming hurricane so ever times it rains the precedent was set, move that game/

[eball]

12 minutes ago, mannc said:

A precedent was certainly set…the question is whether it will apply only when there is six feet of snow, or whether it might be applied in lesser cases, as well.  

 

Either you're bored with nothing else to do, or you're an idiot.

 

No NFL football game has ever been moved from Buffalo because of a forecast of a foot of snow.

 

Case in point:  the infamous snow game vs. the Colts came years after the Bills/Jets game was moved due to the 7-foot snow event.

 

 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The Chargers have been without Keenan Allen for 7.5 games, Mike Williams for 4 games and . 

 

You do see a lot of check downs in their games, they lean on Ekeler a lot to run after catch. 

 

But Palmer and Carter have stepped up at times. 

 

Their bar is right around 23 points a game, regardless if Herbert goes above 300-yards. 

 

I will be watching to see if they can crank it up to 30 these last four games. 

 

 

I agree with a lot of things in this post regarding the Bills offense. 

 

1. The RT is bad. And because he gets beat almost immediately every other play, Josh is on the move constantly. 

 

2. The sporadic run game. Agree, and we don't have an OC who sticks with it in any manner for 4-quarters. Dorsey abandons the run. Cook's carries/touches go up and down every game. You'll have a 16-yard Singletary run, and then he'll get the ball 4 times the rest of the game as well. He's passing when he should be draining the clock. His answers about balance make no sense. Of course when he is talking about balance, it's not 50/50. But there is no commitment to run the ball. He, at least, recognizes the value of Josh Allen designed runs, and has not take them out of the offense. 

 

3. In terms of the pass catchers:  

Gabe Davis - It looks like he runs two routes - the go, and the deep comeback along the sideline. Before Patrick Peterson said anything, that's what I was noticing as well. That said, I thought he was going to translate this year. Unless we're always going to get Playoff Gabe when it counts, you're getting 3 catches for 35 yards otherwise. 

 

Dawson Knox - I wonder if he should be the 2nd option in the pass offense. How long can you wait for Gabe? Despite the screen shots showing him open, he doesn't get the ball.

 

Isaiah McKenzie - I was wrong on him. Thought he could bring more speed to the offense. He's shown that he is a role player. There are games where he shines, Detroit, for one. But he's the opposite of a consistent player. 

 

4. I listen to Dorsey and I'm not sure if any consistency will be developed. There are 4-games left. So establishing new rhythms and norms now? I don't see it. 

a. I don't think Gabe is suddenly going to run new patterns. 

b. I don't expect any Hines package at this point. He's a punt/kick returner and that's it now. 

c. The ship has sailed on Shakir this season. 

d. Cook is going to have 14 carries one game, 2 the next game, regardless of production. 

e. The expectation is that Beasley slides back in and starts touching the ball. I think he'll play, I just don't expect Dorsey to consistently feature him. 

 

F. And finally, another poster said it best. The Bills are in the conversation with the best AFC offenses because of Allen's greatness. It's the only trait of the Bills that matches Patrick Mahomes talent and Andy Reid's play design, or the weapons around Joe Burrow. We don't get that level outside of Allen and Diggs. 

 

 

Wow. What a fantastic breakdown and analysis. Really appreciated the in depth details to support your valid points. Well done!

[Steptide]

7 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Either you're bored with nothing else to do, or you're an idiot.

 

No NFL football game has ever been moved from Buffalo because of a forecast of a foot of snow.

 

Case in point:  the infamous snow game vs. the Colts came years after the Bills/Jets game was moved due to the 7-foot snow event.

 

 

I'm in Rochester, so I'm only seeing what's online, but arnt they saying 24 inches? If it's only a foot, I'd agree they won't change it 

[Big Turk]

I'm not sure where I have gone wrong as a father...my 11 year old daughter just told me that her biggest Christmas wish is that the Bills lose to the Patriots Week 17 and they miss the playoffs.  Do I have the right to disown her?? 😂

Edited December 16, 2022 by Big Turk