Week 15: Dolphins at Bills on Saturday Night Football

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Zero change huh.   I disagree.

 

You realize Cinci is on a 5 game winning streak right now, one of the hottest teams in the NFL and home team usually gets implied 3 pts.  We shall see what happens between now and then.

I don’t believe that to be the case anymore. I had a talk with one of my buddies who is bets sports for a living.  He thinks that 3-3.5 has changed in the last couple years and it’s more like 1-1.5 in most cases now. 

[julian]

11 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

The Bengals are really good as well. They are home. Burrow with all of those weapons will be a challenge. It wouldn't surprise me if the Bills are a slight underdog for this one.

Of course all those things are true, I would be surprised if the Bills were underdogs at 12-3 on a 6 game win streak… but I did say virtually for a reason, it’s possible Bengals could be a 1.5 point favourites, but the poster I was responding to said 4.5 point underdogs… that’s not happening in the scenario I laid out.

[Beck Water]

28 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

I mean you think they use the same play calls for a game that was used the previous game when their opponents study the film of previous games and hear the play calls for that game?

 

That would make the job of opponents defenses much, much easier.....

 

Well, bear in mind that if the team huddles, the other team really shouldn't be hearing the play call - so what would the point be to change it?

 

It only becomes an issue if there's an audible at the line of scrimmage, or if the team is running no-huddle.  And in ordinary years where there is plenty of crowd noise, even the audible is not necessarily clear on film.  Then there's the point that the same or very similar verbiage may encode different options, depending upon the rest of the call.  As an added wrinkle, a team may call several audibles including a code word (that does change weekly) to indicate which is the actual audible vs. the dummy call

 

So it's not necessarily so straightforward to decode, but yes, for a team that is resolute and thorough in its prep, it can provide an advantage and this was especially an issue in 2020 with minimal crowd noise and clearer audibles on film.  For that reason, teams seeking the maximum competitive advantage should change up their audibles weekly, but I don't believe they all do.

 

That's why a guy who knows the system and can help decode what info is available, can be an advantage to an opponent.

 

Of course, I could be mistaken on any point and I welcome correction.

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, julian said:

Of course all those things are true, I would be surprised if the Bills were underdogs at 12-3 on a 6 game win streak… but I did say virtually for a reason, it’s possible Bengals could be a 1.5 point favourites, but the poster I was responding to said 4.5 point underdogs… that’s not happening in the scenario I laid out.

4.5 point is probably a little too high. I would guess around 1.5 - 2.5. Somewhere in that range.

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I don’t believe that to be the case anymore. I had a talk with one of my buddies who is bets sports for a living.  He thinks that 3-3.5 has changed in the last couple years and it’s more like 1-1.5 in most cases now. 

you're right. its no longer 3. thats changed over the recent years.

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

I feel like that guy should be wearing white gloves while touching that - like the Stanley Cup caretaker dude

[Fleezoid]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

 

Haha, what a dumb approach. I hope that is true!

 

McDaniel on Saturday...."It's really cold here! And where the heck did all this dang snow come from?"

[jletha]

23 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Zero change huh.   I disagree.

 

You realize Cinci is on a 5 game winning streak right now, one of the hottest teams in the NFL and home team usually gets implied 3 pts.  We shall see what happens between now and then.

according to betting markets, we are ~3 points better than the Bengals. Obvi things will change between now and our game but if the game were this weekend it would be a pickem basically.

Edited December 14, 2022 by jletha

[RoyBatty is alive]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I don’t believe that to be the case anymore. I had a talk with one of my buddies who is bets sports for a living.  He thinks that 3-3.5 has changed in the last couple years and it’s more like 1-1.5 in most cases now. 

I dont know your buddy but that is possible, you have a few teams esp with franchises moving and easier access to tickets where there is next to now home field advantage  now like the Charger games or Miami in years when they are bad.   But home field definitely gets you an advantage, especially in Buffalo.

[NewEra]

Just now, RoyBatty is alive said:

I dont know your buddy but that is possible, you have a few teams esp with franchises moving and easier access to tickets where there is next to now home field advantage  now like the Charger games or Miami in years when they are bad.   But home field definitely gets you an advantage, especially in Buffalo.

I agree it gives “an advantage”.  It’s just not seen as 3 points by the sports books anymore 

[Warcodered]

 

[LeGOATski]

3 hours ago, Toledo Bill said:

All the more reason we need Milano to play.

He has one of the worst tackling percentages on the team, if I'm not mistaken. He's usually at the right spot to make the play, though.

[Boatdrinks]

37 minutes ago, Greg S said:

4.5 point is probably a little too high. I would guess around 1.5 - 2.5. Somewhere in that range.

If both teams win their next 2 games - and the Bills offense looks good in doing so then yes I agree. That spread would seem about right. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

33 minutes ago, jletha said:

according to betting markets, we are ~3 points better than the Bengals. Obvi things will change between now and our game but if the game were this weekend it would be a pickem basically.

 

 

Look, I am not saying they are great and I don't think they are winning or even going to the Super Bowl, but holy mackerel with this league, its fans and betting in general do the Minnesota Vikings really deserve to have to walk around wearing the "We are the Vikings, go ahead and take a big old s*** right in the middle of our chests" t-shirts that everyone has been making them wear lately?!

 

Boy.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Look, I am not saying they are great and I don't think they are winning or even going to the Super Bowl, but holy mackerel with this league, its fans and betting in general do the Minnesota Vikings really deserve to have to walk around wearing the "We are the Vikings, go ahead and take a big old s*** right in the middle of our chests" t-shirts that they have been wearing lately?!

 

Boy.

 

 

 

 

 

Their ranking for GB doesn't make sense either.

[Patrick Duffy]

35 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, bear in mind that if the team huddles, the other team really shouldn't be hearing the play call - so what would the point be to change it?

 

It only becomes an issue if there's an audible at the line of scrimmage, or if the team is running no-huddle.  And in ordinary years where there is plenty of crowd noise, even the audible is not necessarily clear on film.  Then there's the point that the same or very similar verbiage may encode different options, depending upon the rest of the call.  As an added wrinkle, a team may call several audibles including a code word (that does change weekly) to indicate which is the actual audible vs. the dummy call

 

So it's not necessarily so straightforward to decode, but yes, for a team that is resolute and thorough in its prep, it can provide an advantage and this was especially an issue in 2020 with minimal crowd noise and clearer audibles on film.  For that reason, teams seeking the maximum competitive advantage should change up their audibles weekly, but I don't believe they all do.

 

That's why a guy who knows the system and can help decode what info is available, can be an advantage to an opponent.

 

Of course, I could be mistaken on any point and I welcome correction.

Well I'm mainly referring to the calls that are yelled out that are heard, (ex. QB calls at LOS etc). In any event, just about everything is a little different from one game to the next in some way, shape or form. 

 

There may be a couple here and there they won't change, but a team is not going to give an opponent the same looks, calls etc as they did the very previous game before. Good way to be out of a job quick I'd say

[YoloinOhio]

 

[KHAN]

2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills don’t need optimal. They’re fighting for home to field to set them up for their first Super Bowl championship. Josh can be the difference in that battle. Often the team winning it all has overcome many less than optimal situations along the way. It’s what makes the sport so compelling. 

Nobody reads anymore.

 

The quote you responded to was me telling the previous guy that the answer he responded "So What" to was actually there earlier in my post. Cherry picked out of context.

 

Now you take me out of context again where I already said that this year you have to do what ever it takes to win. But you only quote the part about giving Josh help next year.

 

We can do better than this folks. Let's at least try to comprehend what people are saying before responding.

[Special K]

4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

If Milano isn’t listed as “limited” for tomorrow’s practice, he may not play.🤮

[Philo]

40 minutes ago, Special K said:

If Milano isn’t listed as “limited” for tomorrow’s practice, he may not play.🤮

 

Too lazy to look it up, but I believe he was DNP/DNP/Limited last week and looked great on Sunday. I'm guessing it's just load management or a veiled vet rest day for him at this point.