Allen’s QBR last night was 83.6

[Dr. K]

55 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Going back to last year he’s had some bad games at home against lesser opponents.  Falcons last year 3 picks, took him out of the MVP race and even the pro bowl.  Good news he usually plays better when it matters the most. 1000 yards 10-0 TD ratio, 125+ rating last 3 games at KC.  He’s the anti-Kirk cousins. 

I remember that Falcons game, and yes, he looked really bad, inexplicably, in that game. Especially since it came late in the season right after they had beaten the Pats in New England and he was playing his best ball.  

 

I think even a freak like Allen will have those bad stretches. I expect he will get it out of his system against the Jets. 

[UKBillFan]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I don't know why it is being spoken about so much at all. It is not as if they happened with the game on the line, or at some critical point in the game, or if it was some kind of pattern with Allen. They literally happened with the team up by 17 points and on the opponent's side of the field. They didn't lead to scores by GB or a loss.

 

He is having an MVP year. In the midst of all the MVP caliber plays he has displayed this year are probably 10-15 bad plays. It happens. You can find the same with Mahomes. Do you think Allen isn't aware of those bad plays?

 

Why are you not talking about the beautifully thrown passes, escape from would be sacks, and great plays with his legs that led to a 27 -10 lead midway through the 3rd quarter that made those 3-4 bad plays in the 4th inconsquential?

 

But that's what I'm trying to explain. I think it's the immediacy which is why it's being focused on. Switch the first and fourth quarters and I don't think people would be talking about it (I'm not the only one), or just saying in passing "He had a shaky start but..."

4 minutes ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

People shouldn't defend 13/25 with 2 TD/2 INT as a good game. He had a very good first half, an iffy 3rd quarter and a bad 4th quarter. 

 

If his stat line ended up at 15/25 with 2 TD and 1 INT, it probably would qualify as a good game. But the overthrows in Q4 plus the 2 INTs say: stinker. So he needs to learn from it and move forward. As long as he is not injured, we'll do fine. 

 

As I recall Aaron Rogers had a horrific game in Buffalo a few years back. Since then he won the MVP twice. It can happen to anyone. Sometimes Brady threw multiple picks too. It's why they play. Let's hope he gets it out of his system.

 

I wouldn't say he had an iffy third quarter; thought he was decent. Maybe a slight downstep from the first half but I wouldn't say he was iffy.

[RunTheBall]

Holy crap nothing like TBD to over dissect a 10 point win to death.

 

The expectations being placed on Josh are unrealistic. No QB plays perfect every down of every game. Some of you need to be on anti-anxiety meds. Yeah he didn’t have a good second half. So what. It happens to every single QB. Stop blowing it out of proportion and making it something its not.

 

I don’t care about the stats, I don’t care about the MVP talk, I care about W’s. We won. Every game isn’t going to be a 40 point beat down.

 

You can’t extrapolate what happened in this game to what might happen against any other team. We weren’t playing the Chiefs. We weren’t playing the Eagles. We were playing a clearly inferior opponent and the game was never in doubt after the 2 score lead. What if’s don’t matter.

 

Enjoy the W. We are on to Cincinnati (Jets)

[BRH]

All I know is this just means a whole lot of bad news for the Jets next week.

[hemma]

Based off some of prior performances/scores, I think he had a different person grading him last night.

[Scott7975]

[billsfan1959]

9 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

But that's what I'm trying to explain. I think it's the immediacy which is why it's being focused on. Switch the first and fourth quarters and I don't think people would be talking about it (I'm not the only one), or just saying in passing "He had a shaky start but..."

 

I understand the bad throws happened in the 4th quarter; however, they literally did nothing other than preventing the team from winning by 20 points instead of 10 points. They had much less of an impact on the outcome of the game than all the good plays he had last night.

 

But, if that is what some people want to focus on, then so be it.

[Punching Bag]

49 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

I never have an off day, ever. No matter what my wife or boss says (can't believe a word they say). My QBR is always 100. 

 

Equal to your IQ?  QBR of 100 is maybe a B-?

Easy to get against poor competition and no silly chances.

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

It was more than one bad drive…. Either way I’m not worried one iota about Josh…. It was just one bad half of football. 

 

So you are saying Josh had a good game since you are usually worried entire game.

[UKBillFan]

6 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I understand the bad throws happened in the 4th quarter; however, they literally did nothing other than preventing the team from winning by 20 points instead of 10 points. They had much less of an impact on the outcome of the game than all the good plays he had last night.

 

But, if that is what some people want to focus on, then so be it.

 

Yes, though if Crosby had converted the late FG attempt and they had then won the subsequent onside kick, or if we hadn't tipped Rodgers' pass straight after the first interception, then suddenly the gap closes or we may lose. Looking back, the bad plays didn't really matter. At the time they could have done, we could be sitting here discussing a narrow loss because of the turnovers. If he then makes those passes aagainst a team with a competent offense we could be in trouble too.

 

Ifs, buts and maybes, I appreciate that and none of it came to pass. I think that's why it's being focused on though. I doubt we're hardly the fanbase to debate this though; can imagine how the Chiefs fans reacted after their loss to us and the Colts, where Mahomes didn't have the best of games.

[Punching Bag]

20 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

 

I don’t care about the stats, I don’t care about the MVP talk, I care about W’s. We won. Every game isn’t going to be a 40 point beat down.

 

 

Points DO matter is ties but I expect Bills will not be in that scenario this season.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Charles Romes said:

Going back to last year he’s had some bad games at home against lesser opponents.  Falcons last year 3 picks, took him out of the MVP race and even the pro bowl.  Good news he usually plays better when it matters the most. 1000 yards 10-0 TD ratio, 125+ rating last 3 games at KC.  He’s the anti-Kirk cousins. 

 

I mean... Mac Jones was in the pro bowl so... 

[Gunsgoodtime]

Just cut him already, time to move on. 

[Rich Stadium Original]

I though I saw a stat at the end of the game last night, but haven't seen since that said Allen faced pressures on 43%(?) of dropbacks for this game..the highest of the seaon. My recollection is Allen was rarely throwing from a clean pocket in the 2nd half.

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Which Is actually higher then it was against Miami, Baltimore, and KC. 
 

So even when he’s “off” he’s still an amazing QB. 
 

Id just like the missed throw away in the dirt that got picked by Alexander back last night that even got on himself about. 
 

Onto the Jets 

It was essentially mostly 2 bad series (really only a bad pass at the end of 1 of them) in the 2nd half along with a miss in the last series.

[Fan in Chicago]

I wonder if he was just bored after the first half and made careless mistakes. Of course it's not an excuse but he looked visibly sharper in the first half. 🙃

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

Good 1st half, terrible 2nd half. We won't win if he has a full game like that 2nd half. Luckily we were already up big at that point. Josh is the entire offense. If he has a bad game then we won't win, simple as that. He had a bad 2nd half and we only had 3 points as a team as a result 

It's hilarious that people are giving you a hard time about this, because everything you said is objectively true

[KDIGGZ]

2 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

It's hilarious that people are giving you a hard time about this, because everything you said is objectively true

You can't criticize their lord and savior Josh Allen. He's of course infallible. He walks on water and his tears cure diseases. I often find myself taking the unpopular position but someone has to bring some common sense and balance to this forum 🫡

[FilthyBeast]

One bad half out of the bye week against a desperate team isn't time to raise the alarm  bells yet.

 

Now if Allen comes out next week and plays like complete trash against a decent Jets defense (and this team loses) then we have a real problem.

[nedboy7]

There are some deeply negative fans on here.  Completely attached to misery and insulting the team to no end. 

 

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

I said it earlier in the year too, Allen and the offense start playing too loose at times once they realize they are much better than their opponent. The dirt pass that turned into a pick I'll chalk up to a weird fluke, but the one he threw back across his body was just unnecessary at that moment in the game. Allen is the man and he know he's the man but he has to pick his spots. He knows better than that.

 

I also feel like there are some games where you can tell the coaching staff has told him no more running. Did he run the ball once after halftime yesterday? When Allen is neutered like that the offense looks worse. I think if we had been playing the Chiefs he would have just run on that 3rd down where he threw his first interception. They should let him play his game.

 

Completely agree with the first part of your analysis. That is a good observation.  However, I was quite pleased he did not run the ball in the second half.  I did not think the game was in danger at any point.  That is maturation in my mind. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by nedboy7

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

However, I was quite pleased he did not run the ball in the second half.  I did not think the game was in danger at any point.  That is maturation in my mind. 

 

I'm fine with him running as much as he wants to. Now obviously in games like yesterday's I want him to slide and not fight for extra yards. But him running is not inherently dangerous.

 

On the pick I think he genuinely just missed Rasul Douglas sitting in that area. It was a really good and athletic play by him.

[78thealltimegreat]

56 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

You can't criticize their lord and savior Josh Allen. He's of course infallible. He walks on water and his tears cure diseases. I often find myself taking the unpopular position but someone has to bring some common sense and balance to this forum 🫡

You wanted Josh Rosen 

[KDIGGZ]

2 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

You wanted Josh Rosen 

Josh Allen's chances were 1 in a million. I'm not mad that he is an anomaly but let's not act like he is infallible 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, RunTheBall said:

Holy crap nothing like TBD to over dissect a 10 point win to death.

 

The expectations being placed on Josh are unrealistic. No QB plays perfect every down of every game. Some of you need to be on anti-anxiety meds. Yeah he didn’t have a good second half. So what. It happens to every single QB. Stop blowing it out of proportion and making it something its not.

 

I don’t care about the stats, I don’t care about the MVP talk, I care about W’s. We won. Every game isn’t going to be a 40 point beat down.

 

You can’t extrapolate what happened in this game to what might happen against any other team. We weren’t playing the Chiefs. We weren’t playing the Eagles. We were playing a clearly inferior opponent and the game was never in doubt after the 2 score lead. What if’s don’t matter.

 

Enjoy the W. We are on to Cincinnati (Jets)

When I critique a Bills victory, I feel like I’ve morphed into a jaded Pats fan.   But it’s impossible for me not to notice the difference between the first half and second yesterday.

 

I have to remind myself we won by double digits!

 

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by hondo in seattle

[Donuts and Doritos]

2 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Equal to your IQ?  QBR of 100 is maybe a B-?

Easy to get against poor competition and no silly chances.

 

I'm flattered. No one has ever accused me of having an IQ higher than D-

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

40 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Josh Allen's chances were 1 in a million. I'm not mad that he is an anomaly but let's not act like he is infallible 

 

Based on what exactly?  Please tell me how you draft someone with the #7 overall pick who has a 1:1 mil success probability.  

[Ralonzo]

3 hours ago, henry jones said:

The one to Kumerow stands out (even though it wouldn't have counted anyway) 

 

I disagree. Because it was a crap throw and incomplete, the penalty was declined and the down counted. Otherwise they have to take the penalty and the Offense gets another crack at it. It's not like it didn't matter.

[TheBrownBear]

The picks were head scratchers for sure, but we know he was trying to throw that one away and the other he got greedy trying to make a play.  The more concerning moments were the overthrows to Diggs and Kumerow.  Those were 2018 oof-worthy throws.

[KDIGGZ]

15 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Based on what exactly?  Please tell me how you draft someone with the #7 overall pick who has a 1:1 mil success probability.  

Every single analytic in the history of football. It's never happened before:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

[LabattBlue]

As long as the Bills win, most fans won’t care, and Josh’s play has been great this season, but put up a stinker like the 2nd half in a game they lose, and the attitude of the fans will be different. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by LabattBlue

[billsfan1959]

24 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Every single analytic in the history of football. It's never happened before:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

Those statistics are meaningless in predicting whether or not any individual becomes a successful NFL QB.

[Buffalo716]

29 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Every single analytic in the history of football. It's never happened before:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

Analytics Can never replace the eye test

 

Most scouts really liked Josh Allen hence he was at the top of Boards

 

It was the armchair GM’s an analytic people who didn’t… Old school football scouts loved Josh Allen 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Yes the expectation has become that Allen will play perfect every week and that's not a sustainable model for success.

 

4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Good 1st half, terrible 2nd half. We won't win if he has a full game like that 2nd half. Luckily we were already up big at that point. Josh is the entire offense. If he has a bad game then we won't win, simple as that. He had a bad 2nd half and we only had 3 points as a team as a result 

 

Which is exactly why I want to see Dorsey expand the offense.  Yesterday was going perfectly to balance more running and he had

success, but then went away from it.  I'm hoping McDermott mentions this and we see some changes in the Jets game.

[KDIGGZ]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Those statistics are meaningless in predicting whether or not any individual becomes a successful NFL QB.

You think math is meaningless? Teams have entire analytics depts that they pay millions for so you would probably be the only person that shares that opinion 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Every single analytic in the history of football. It's never happened before:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

In other words, you can't explain your 1:1 mil probability.   By your hypothesis, he shouldn't have even been drafted - I mean the odds!

[billsfan1959]

14 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

You think math is meaningless? Teams have entire analytics depts that they pay millions for so you would probably be the only person that shares that opinion 

 

I do not believe math is meaningless, nor do I believe group statistics are meaningless. I didn't say either of those things.

 

I said that group statistics are meaningless in the manner you are trying to use them. In other words, group statistics have no predictive ability at an individual level. I can assure you that anyone who engages in statistical analyses for a living understands that.

 

 

[Buffalo716]

21 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

You think math is meaningless? Teams have entire analytics depts that they pay millions for so you would probably be the only person that shares that opinion 

The analytic departments decide if it’s a good idea to go for it on fourth and one at the 35

 

The analytics department has nothing to do with drafting… And again real scouts loved Josh Allen

 

There were question marks , But the pure talent was undeniable and had him at the top of boards 

[BigAl2526]

The Green Bay CBs are very good.  It was a battle between Buffalo's receivers and Green Bay's secondary.  Sometimes Green Bay won and sometimes Buffalo did. They also sold out to stop the pass, which led to a lot of success running the ball.  I am spoiled like most Bills fans.  I want to see them dominate, and I think they can do some things to counter a defensive effort like that in the future, but the other team does have an effect on what the Bills are able to do sometimes.

[LABILLBACKER]

11 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

The picks were head scratchers for sure, but we know he was trying to throw that one away and the other he got greedy trying to make a play.  The more concerning moments were the overthrows to Diggs and Kumerow.  Those were 2018 oof-worthy throws.

What I don't understand is how can your qbr be 83 with a 75 rating. Mathematically it makes no sense.  He had no rushing tds and his completion % was bad??  Which stat is more viable for mvp voting?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

What I don't understand is how can your qbr be 83 with a 75 rating. Mathematically it makes no sense.  He had no rushing tds and his completion % was bad??  Which stat is more viable for mvp voting?

 

We don't know the specifics of QBR. But we know that it factors in things like score and down and distance when passes or plays by the QB are made. Throwing 2 ints when you are up big in a three score game in the second half are not weighted the same as if those two INTs came in the first half with the game tied. Logically that makes some sense. Allen threw two inconsequential INT's. The grey area is how much less do you actually weigh them as compared to throwing picks in a one score game.

 

Early in the first half on the Bills first scoring drive i believe, Allen had two plays that most QB's wouldn't/couldn't make. The long run on 3rd down to set up the TD and the actual TD pass to Knox. Both those plays were likely graded very high. 

 

Just my two cents. 

 

I do agree the 83 QBR doesn't really pass the eye test. It's like when Allen gets a 56 QBR in game where he has 3 TD's and 0 INTs and a passer rating over 105. 

 

But the bottom line is both QBR and passer rating by themselves can often be misleading. But still I tend to find QBR more times than not matches what my eyes see vs. the standard passer rating metric.