Worst Year Ever in the NFL for Overall Quality of Play?

[Doc Brown]

Scoring is down.  My guess is defenses are starting to catch up to the innovative college spread offense concepts brought to the NFL.  Also, offensive coaches are more sought after during the off-season so there's more transition on that side of the ball.  There's pry plenty of more reasons (more cover 2 shell looks, increase in WR turnover across the league, less preseason reps for the o-line, etc.).  Offenses will eventually counter and the quality of play will get better.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think teams are undervaluing OL in the draft. I think what's happening is there is less quality OL talent entering the draft than ever before, while on the other side of the ball there are more freakishly talented DL than ever before.

 

Yep I think as I said to @Gugny the other day there are 3 main factors

 

1. Increase in spread offenses in college meaning lots of OLineman coming out who have never been in a 3 point stance. 

 

2. OL I would say most impacted by reduced practice time per recent CBA adjustments.

 

3. The freakish athletic big guys are disproportionately choosing to play DL and that comes down to money in the long run I think. 

 

EDITED: repeat post. 

Edited October 26, 2022 by GunnerBill

[mannc]

9 hours ago, jethro_tull said:

Not sure why but it seem as if there is an overall lack of quality play and quality teams this season, probably the worst I can remember.  Watching other teams last Sunday was dreadful. 

Basically the only really good teams are the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles.  The Eagles have the benefit of playing a .500 schedule so they are likely a distant third best. 

There are some rising teams but they have flaws and are winning because everyone else is so bad. 

No hard evidence of course just my impressions.   

I think what you really mean is “bad QB play”, which means “bad football”.  And yes, I agree.

[JoPoy88]

9 hours ago, jethro_tull said:

Not sure why but it seem as if there is an overall lack of quality play and quality teams this season, probably the worst I can remember.  Watching other teams last Sunday was dreadful. 

Basically the only really good teams are the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles.  The Eagles have the benefit of playing a .500 schedule so they are likely a distant third best. 

There are some rising teams but they have flaws and are winning because everyone else is so bad. 

No hard evidence of course just my impressions.   

good QBs aging out, not enough good young QBs to replace them. Simple as.

[GunnerBill]

As for overall has the quality been down... some weeks, sure. Week 5 was an utter disaster other than the Bills - Chiefs game. But most other weeks I have seen two or three good games. And personally I was never a huge fan of the 54-51 type Rams - Chiefs games from a few years ago. I think the best football games are where there is jeopardy, where defenses can get stops. That famous game I referenced above might have had quality offensive football but some of the defense was utterly horrendous. A 27-24 or a 31-28 type game is often where the overall best quality is on display. 

 

Overall there have probably been more clunkers so far this year, and the primetime slate hasn't been great. But I don't think it has been as bad as some are making out. 

[Sierra Foothills]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Scoring is down.  My guess is defenses are starting to catch up to the innovative college spread offense concepts brought to the NFL.  Also, offensive coaches are more sought after during the off-season so there's more transition on that side of the ball.  There's pry plenty of more reasons (more cover 2 shell looks, increase in WR turnover across the league, less preseason reps for the o-line, etc.).  Offenses will eventually counter and the quality of play will get better.

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep I think as I said to @Gugny the other day there are 3 main factors

 

1. Increase in spread offenses in college meaning lots of OLineman coming out who have never been in a 3 point stance. 

 

2. OL I would say most impacted by reduced practice time per recent CBA adjustments.

 

3. The freakish athletic big guys are disproportionately choosing to play DL and that comes down to money in the long run I think. 

 

EDITED: repeat post. 

 

1 hour ago, mannc said:

I think what you really mean is “bad QB play”, which means “bad football”.  And yes, I agree.

 

1 hour ago, JoPoy88 said:

good QBs aging out, not enough good young QBs to replace them. Simple as.

 

I believe it's a bit of all of these factors... not just one.

 

Another factor I think is a shortage of coaching talent at this level. You see so many college coaches fail in the NFL and each offseason 6-8 teams are changing coaching staffs. Blowing up and replacing an entire coaching staff is generally counter to success. The best teams in the league are generally the most stable with just a few exceptions.

 

[Dopey]

11 hours ago, jethro_tull said:

Not sure why but it seem as if there is an overall lack of quality play and quality teams this season, probably the worst I can remember.  Watching other teams last Sunday was dreadful. 

Basically the only really good teams are the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles.  The Eagles have the benefit of playing a .500 schedule so they are likely a distant third best. 

There are some rising teams but they have flaws and are winning because everyone else is so bad. 

No hard evidence of course just my impressions.   

Look at us getting all New Englandie. Or is it New Englandy?

Edited October 26, 2022 by Dopey

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

10 hours ago, freddyjj said:

So the merged team’s new name was the Main Line Pennsyltuckians?

Steagles

 

[nucci]

really poor coaching...all these owners wanted a McVay coach and we're seeing bad ones. Cards, Browns, Broncos, Raiders, Panthers.... and others

[Brueggs]

12 hours ago, StHustle said:

While this is definitely a factor and a great point, their’s also been worse than usual overall play. Points scored is way down and a pair of legends have been playing backup QB quality ball. Hopefully the law of averages takes hold soon and this changes. I would love a super bowl regardless but would rather not have it come in a record worse year for overall competition. 

There are other factors too, like the quality of defensive play.  The NFL has a knack for changing rules to get the scoring up, and then the defenses adjust.  

I will take a Super bowl win however it come LOL.

9 hours ago, AlfaBill said:

No. It’s definitely worse. There are no good teams only a few great teams some mediocre ones and a bunch of crap. 

Maybe.  Check back in at the end of the season.  

[Greg S]

Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles are elite. The rest are good, average or below average. 

[Not at the table Karlos]

The Bills, Eagles and chefs are the only good teams. The rest are terrible. 

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

The Bills, Eagles and chefs are the only good teams. The rest are terrible. 

 

Bengals and Ravens could crash the expected Bills vs Chiefs AFCCG party. But in the end, I think it will be KC at BUF to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

[Not at the table Karlos]

Just now, Greg S said:

 

Bengals and Ravens could crash the expected Bills vs Chiefs AFCCG party. But in the end, I think it will be KC at BUF to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Yeah Bengals seem to have figured out hot to play football again. Idk how to feel about the ravens yet. They seem to score 20 points and call it a day. 

[mannc]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep I think as I said to @Gugny the other day there are 3 main factors

 

1. Increase in spread offenses in college meaning lots of OLineman coming out who have never been in a 3 point stance. 

 

2. OL I would say most impacted by reduced practice time per recent CBA adjustments.

 

3. The freakish athletic big guys are disproportionately choosing to play DL and that comes down to money in the long run I think. 

 

EDITED: repeat post. 

No mention of bad QB play?

[mannc]

3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

 

 

I believe it's a bit of all of these factors... not just one.

 

Another factor I think is a shortage of coaching talent at this level. You see so many college coaches fail in the NFL and each offseason 6-8 teams are changing coaching staffs. Blowing up and replacing an entire coaching staff is generally counter to success. The best teams in the league are generally the most stable with just a few exceptions.

 

This is anecdotal, and just based on a gut feeling, but it also seems like there have been more injuries to key players this year…

[DasNootz]

The game itself is in transition and it will take a while for players, coach and officiating to master the new style(s).

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, mannc said:

No mention of bad QB play?

 

I was talking directly to @HappyDays post about OL. The three main reasons for poor OL are not, as he rightly stated, teams ignoring them in the draft. It is the factors I listed. I wasn't talking in that post about the macro issue of perceived declining play league wide. 

[Greg S]

1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Yeah Bengals seem to have figured out hot to play football again. Idk how to feel about the ravens yet. They seem to score 20 points and call it a day. 

 

They had both the Dolphins and Bills on the ropes and let those games slip away. I do think it will be KC at BUF in the AFCCG. 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Greg S

[Billsatlastin2018]

On WHR this morning, the following levels were described:

 

Level 1: Bills, Eagles, Chiefs

Level 2: Everyone else but

Level 3: Lions & Texans

 

THIS is unusual.
Having a small number of teams at the top isn’t.

Having a huuuge number of mediocre teams where on any given Sunday, the sizeable underdog can not only upset, but lay a beating on (see Packers &Bucs)? 
 

I’ve never seen that since I started watching the NFL in the mid 60s!
Strike years don’t count.

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

This is anecdotal, and just based on a gut feeling, but it also seems like there have been more injuries to key players this year…

 

I agree that it seems that injury lists are longer this year than normal.

 

I wonder if (counter-intuitively) the reduction in team drills has had an unintended effect on the occurrence of injuries.

 

[RocCityRoller]

16 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I believe bad o-line play is the root cause of many bad performances.  Teams like to overdraft those flashy skill position guys and give little thought to keeping their QB's upright.

I agree OL play is really poor. College seems to be creating more top quality DL and Edge players than OL too.

 

The imbalance in rules to help scoring is ironically not helping the OL either. Most OL would rather run block and impose their will on the defense. Rules changes favor passing but this puts OL back on their heels.

 

IMO. We are also seeing some limitations in analytics which is costing some good teams games.

[SirAndrew]

5 hours ago, nucci said:

really poor coaching...all these owners wanted a McVay coach and we're seeing bad ones. Cards, Browns, Broncos, Raiders, Panthers.... and others

Agree, the value of experience went out the window when teams saw McVay. The league went on a hiring spree of millennial coaches who looked similar to McVay. I’m all about giving the next generation of coaches a fair shot, I’d hope I’m afforded those type of opportunities, but these guys had more style than substance. 

[Bill from NYC]

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Has nothing to do with drafting.    If it did then there would still be have's and have not's with regard to OL play..........and there aren't any have's.   It's a practice and continuity issue.   

Would you mind explaining this just a bit? It's probably me, but I see much ambiguity in that post.

 

It almost reads as if all blockers are virtually the same.

17 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Agreed. I actually get bored by shootouts. Especially if it's more because of bad defense on both sides. That isn't fun, it's just a coin flip.

 

The one problem the NFL has right now, and this is going to sound weird, is Allen and Mahomes. Let me explain. Those two are both playing at a historically great level. I'm not sure fans have fully come to terms with that yet. Even great QBs like Manning and Brady, if you called the exact right defensive play and had enough defensive talent you could beat them on a play to play basis. There are plays like that against Allen and Mahomes where they still beat you anyways. You do everything exactly right and they turn it into a 1st down or TD. And in between these ridiculous impossible plays they're also very consistent at the boring nitpicky things that made Manning and Brady great, as opposed to someone like Lamar Jackson who does the impossible crazy plays but isn't consistent enough with the fundamentals.

 

So defenses are overtaking offenses this year, but you have these two freaks of nature doing things the league has never seen before. I think their historically great play is making the rest of the NFL look boring by comparison. It's not that offenses have gotten worse, it's that defenses have gotten better but Allen and Mahomes are fooling everybody into thinking offenses should still have the upper hand. I don't know if that makes sense to anyone that reads this but that's how I see it.

Interesting post.

[BADOLBILZ]

On 10/26/2022 at 4:22 PM, Bill from NYC said:

Would you mind explaining this just a bit? It's probably me, but I see much ambiguity in that post.

 

It almost reads as if all blockers are virtually the same.

Interesting post.

 

 

What I mean is that drafting blockers earlier would only address the problem for those specific teams that do it........not the league as a whole.    And it hasn't really proven to be a winning strategy........ask the Colts and the Cowboys about how far first round interior OL......and getting good play from them......... took them in the SB hunt.     I don't see where using early picks on OL will make more of them appear.   It's not like they don't get paid well in UFA.   They do.  There is just likely to be the same amount of OL talent entering the league either way.    It's not like the QB or WR positions......or a lot of the defensive positions........where those guys might be making a business decision between playing different positions in football or different sports altogether like baseball or basketball.    Money has drawn those type of athletes to the big $ positions in football.   OL don't have those options.  It's like RB.......there aren't a lot of other sporting opportunities in the US for 5'7" 210# dudes who run a 4.6 40.   

[zow2]

All i know is the league is very average to poor and the Bills have an amazing opportunity to win the Super Bowl.  It’s maybe the best year to be *this* good. Because no one around them is all that good. Except KC is dangerous. Obviously that’s who they likely need to get past in order to accomplish the goal. 

[Mr. WEO]

come on....one of the worst divisions (NFCE) is now the only one with 2 6 game winners among it's 3 with at least 5.

 

anyway, it beats the watching the World Series

[Warcodered]

 

[Buffalo Junction]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

What I mean is that drafting blockers earlier would only address the problem for those specific teams that do it........not the league as a whole.    And it hasn't really proven to be a winning strategy........ask the Colts and the Cowboys about how far first round interior OL......and getting good play from them......... took them in the SB hunt.     I don't see where using early picks on OL will make more of them appear.   It's not like they don't get paid well in UFA.   They do.  There is just likely to be the same amount of OL talent entering the league either way.    It's not like the QB or WR positions......or a lot of the defensive positions........where those guys might be making a business decision between playing different positions in football or different sports altogether like baseball or basketball.    Money has drawn those type of athletes to the big $ positions in football.   OL don't have those options.  It's like RB.......there aren't a lot of other sporting opportunities in the US for 5'7" 210# dudes who run a 4.6 40.   

I agree with this.
 

I think an important aspect we’re neglecting though is that high school and middle school football has also moved to spread offenses. That shift started to happen around ten years ago. As such we’re now seeing a majority of QBs and Olinemen  coming into the NFL having never (respectively) played under center or in a three point stance. Those early repetitions can be critical for technique, especially for linemen who are learning to manipulate leverage against different body types. Basically, these guys aren’t getting their 10,000 repetitions until their rookie contract is expiring. 
 

The flipside of linemen and QBs delayed development in traditional offenses is defensive exposure to the spread. All of these defensive players have now been seeing variations of these plays since 8th grade. Not only are they are coming into the league with all of the reps and experience to defend against spread offenses, but those who excelled defending it have risen to the top. What’s interesting to me is that many of the defensive fundamentals haven’t changed while Oline techniques have. Front 7 players have just learned how to track motion from running options instead of keying off of fullbacks. 
 

Personnel wise I think Belichick kind of had the right idea with going back to a 2 TE run based offense. Unfortunately for him finding the players to execute that offense isn’t easy with todays players. The Packers pulled this off for the past few years, but haven’t been able to retain interior linemen and have now lost the receiving talent to force light boxes. 49ers are probably the best case of this working. It seems that the only way to make that team building concept work long term is to have an above average QB on a reasonable contract so you can afford better linemen. As a result offenses probably won’t change unless QB pay is limited to a lower percentage of the cap.

[Buffalo ill]

With today's "fantasy football and madden are all that matter" generation of fans, good defense = bad football in their minds.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

What I mean is that drafting blockers earlier would only address the problem for those specific teams that do it........not the league as a whole.    And it hasn't really proven to be a winning strategy........ask the Colts and the Cowboys about how far first round interior OL......and getting good play from them......... took them in the SB hunt.     I don't see where using early picks on OL will make more of them appear.   It's not like they don't get paid well in UFA.   They do.  There is just likely to be the same amount of OL talent entering the league either way.    It's not like the QB or WR positions......or a lot of the defensive positions........where those guys might be making a business decision between playing different positions in football or different sports altogether like baseball or basketball.    Money has drawn those type of athletes to the big $ positions in football.   OL don't have those options.  It's like RB.......there aren't a lot of other sporting opportunities in the US for 5'7" 210# dudes who run a 4.6 40.   

 

Do you not think some bigger guys are pivoting more to defensive line? Definitely feels to me like more of the naturally big but explosive guys are playing DT than OL and that might be in part future earnings. 

 

I think the way OLs play in college (lot of spread not much 3 point stance) and the lack of practice time under the CBA are bigger factors but personally I do think we might be seeing a talent drift from OL to DL.

[BuffaloBill]

On 10/25/2022 at 7:59 PM, Neo said:

The thought of Miss Kitty cheating …

 

Well, Miss Kitty has a right to do what she wants with her Kitty…..

[Neo]

4 hours ago, Buffalo ill said:

With today's "fantasy football and madden are all that matter" generation of fans, good defense = bad football in their minds.

This is the fiftieth anniversary of the Dolphins’ perfect season.  I remember the Bills lost to the Phins by one point that year, 24 to 23, in the Orange Bowl.  I took a ride down memory lane and found the box score.   For those younger, it’s a powerful WayBack machine that will give you a glimpse into football in what we considered, at the time, the highest quality of play.  Woody Hayes and THE Ohio State Buckeyes gave us three yards and a cloud of dust.   Stream matriculated down the field.

 

Look at this box score.   This game is the toughest and closest match an undefeated champion played.   In short, it was epic.

 

Twenty eight passes thrown.   498 yards.   Those are COMBINED numbers.

 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/197210220mia.htm

 

 

[y2zipper]

On 10/25/2022 at 7:04 PM, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think teams are undervaluing OL in the draft. I think what's happening is there is less quality OL talent entering the draft than ever before, while on the other side of the ball there are more freakishly talented DL than ever before. Plus it feels like o-linemen are more injury prone than other positions, and it only takes one starter going down to injury to kill the entire unit. You'd have to devote a ridiculous amount of draft capital to build a consistently top tier OL because you need 5 good ones and at least a couple good depth players behind them. That's a lot harder than finding one stud pass rusher or one stud WR who singlehandedly can change a game. A stud LT can't change a game if the 4 guys next to him aren't up to par.

 

Because of poor OL play across the league teams have had to rely on the quick passing game and slowly work their way down the field more than we've seen in the last few years. This type of offense is more prone to mistakes and if you don't have a mobile QB capable of escaping trouble you're dead on arrival against any defense that can create a decent amount of pressure.

 

I also think fans have gotten a little too accustomed to explosive offenses over the past decade. Football with great defensive play is still fun to watch and I would say the drop in the quality of offenses has coincided with a rise in the quality of defenses. When fans talk about a drop in the quality of games what they really mean is less scoring.

 

It's also difficult to predict the health of offensive linemen because they hit every play and teams don't keep a lot of depth there because it doesn't exist. We saw last year that all it takes is one or two injuries there and a team can be in real trouble.

[without a drought]

During the bye last week, NFL Redzone looked more like a football follies video than actual highlights.

[Nextmanup]

Not only has it been lousy, but the selection of games to view on TV has been terrible.

 

I just reviewed the 3 games I have in my area today, before the Bills at night, and ALL are just garbage.

 

I can't watch the Chicago Bears play any more football right now!

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

Worst year ever in the NFL for overall quality of play...   1920.  Those guys looked like rank amateurs!

 

There's bound to be some ups and downs but overall quality is generally improving over the decades with better schemes, physical training, understanding of performance science, etc. 

 

I think the evolution of the game is interesting.  It used to be the best athletes became RBs.  Now the best athletes become WRs and DBs.  LBs used be thumping fireplugs - now they need excellent coverage skills.  QBs could be unathletic as long as they had poise and could throw the ball.   Athletic QBs who can both throw and run - like Allen and Mahomes - are now becoming the prototype.  FB quality sucks right now because it's a position that's no longer valued.     

 

The quality of position groups - and how it's defined - varies as the game evolves.   As for overall quality, I'm not disappointed in this season at all.   The Bills are playing well and that's pretty much all that matters to me.

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

On 10/25/2022 at 6:25 PM, Allen2Diggs said:

The Thursday night games have been unwatchable at times.

Thursday night football is the worst thing that's happened to the NFL. It delivers consistently poor games on Thursday night itself. It upsets the week-to-week rhythm of NFL teams, creating follow-on effects after a team that played on Thursday gets that mini-bye. Everyone knows it sucks, but it is a money maker and it isn't going anywhere. Then add to that the London games ...

[Dr.Sack]

Bills score 27 and it feels like a TIE.