Matt Araiza and the Draft

[KingBoots8]

15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

No reason whatsoever to think that a 4th rounder would be "a potential PS player waiting to make a start 3/4 of the way into the season."

 

Taron Johnson saw 405 snaps his rookie year. He had 45 snaps and a pass defensed in week 3, 70 snaps a forced fumble and a QB hit in week 4, an INT in week 5 ...

 

Davis by "3/4 of the way into the season his rookie year" had 5 TDs, more than 400 yards and almost 30 catches.

 

I probably should have clarified- I was thinking in that scenario if we traded back up and it cost us some of the lower round picks. I wouldn’t mind if we did that if we think he’s the guy. I’d rather pass on fliers in the 6th like Wildgoose and Hamlin and use those picks (plus maybe a swap of 5ths) to

move back up late in the 4th and get a day 1 starter

Edited March 3, 2022 by KingBoots8

[Thurman#1]

7 minutes ago, KingBoots8 said:

I probably should have clarified- I was thinking in that scenario if we traded back up and it cost us some of the lower round picks. I wouldn’t mind if we did that if we think he’s the guy. I’d rather pass on fliers in the 6th like Wildgoose and Hamlin and use those picks (plus maybe a swap of 5ths) to

move back up late in the 4th and get a day 1 starter

 

 

IMO that's not Beane's M.O.

 

I personally find it more tolerable that way, but still not something I would be willing to do.

 

And again, it's Beane who does the picking. He's been willing in the past to trade 6ths and 7ths, but I don't believe he's ever emptied a round back that late. He appears to be very willing to trade a 6th or a 7th if he's got another left over in the same round.

 

But for him to trade our 5th up for a 4th, he'd be emptying the 5th, and would be giving up 22.2 points in the traditional draft chart. The only possible way to get near that would be to trade both sixths. So he'd be emptying both the 5th and 6th rounds. He's never done anything like that in trades for picks. IMO very unlikely.

 

A lot of people advocating tradeups do it essentially because they don't much value late picks. Beane does. He's shown he does.

 

Well, we can agree to disagree. I don't think a punter is worth a 4th round pick, especially on this team that doesn't punt as much as most teams do. It isn't Araiza or bust. There are plenty of other replacements for Haack around, including one or two who might be worth drafting late.

[CaptnCoke11]

I’m cool using the first 6th round pick on him.  

[BobbyC81]

10 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I’m not against drafting a punter But not as early as the fourth round draft a different one

Hey, the Raiders picked Ray Guy in the first round!
 

Just win, baby!!

[BobbyC81]

9 hours ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

I would be extremely disappointed to see the Bills use anything higher than a 6th round pick on a punter. There were multiple games where the Bills punter only got on the field to hold for FGs. 

Yeah, I’d rather use a pick on a punter than on a backup player that isn’t likely to make the team and probably would get stolen from the practice squad anyway.

[gonzo1105]

He’s not that great. He takes a while to get his punts off. Yes they go far but none have hangtime. Half the time, the returnees don’t even catch it and it rolls. When they did get returned they were for large gains because he’s out kicking his coverage. 
 

He’s going to get drafted higher than he should. The PSU and Georgia kid can be had in 5-7 and are just as good 

[jwhit34]

While one can make the argument that as the punter he is a day one starter, the Bills have punted 93 times in 33 regular season games over the past two seasons, an average of 2.8 punts per game. Presuming that the Bills continue to be a good offense for the next 4 years (the length contract for a 3rd or 4th rounder) that is not going to change much. So outside of holding, spending a 3rd or 4th rounder on a punter gets him on the field for a little less than 3 plays a game.

 

If they draft a player in the 3rd or 4th round you get a special teams contributor, a rotational player, or an eventual starter. In any scenario they are on the field for double digit plays per game, or like in the case of Dawson Knox, Devin SIngletary, Taron Johnson and Spencer Brown, full time starters. 

 

With their depth punter at 6 like they did with Tyler Bass is great. Any earlier than that? Probably not. Even 5th round Tommy Doyle played more snaps than the punter.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

38 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

He’s not that great. He takes a while to get his punts off. Yes they go far but none have hangtime. Half the time, the returnees don’t even catch it and it rolls. When they did get returned they were for large gains because he’s out kicking his coverage. 
 

He’s going to get drafted higher than he should. The PSU and Georgia kid can be had in 5-7 and are just as good 

2022 Draft:  Three  punters drafted in first round!  Experts are pointing to a fan message board somewhere in the northeast for this 'pump and dump' strategy. 🤔

*
Are these guys fungible?

Edited March 3, 2022 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[DCofNC]

The difference between the very best punter and the worst in the NFL is a whole 8 yards on average.  A team punts on average about 4 times a game, the Bills punted on average 3.05 times a game last year.  How much is 25 yards a game worth to you? (Assuming you get the very best guy and Buffalo winds don’t skew their stats back to the middle of the pack where it’s more like a 4 yard a kick difference). BTW the difference between the best punter and worst when looking at Net is only 7 yards and the best average distance punter is not the best Net. 

 

A great punter is a nice thing to have, but the amount of times that 4-8 yards makes a big difference is rare.  The Bills could/should upgrade as Haack is one of the worst in the league no matter how you shape it, but to talk about a 3rd round pick is nuts.  

[transient]

12 hours ago, Riverboat Ritchie said:

 

Nope… can’t do it. Not even the offseason can get me to watch 6 minutes of punting highlights. 

[Rigotz]

I'm sure I'll be in the minority here, but I actually agree with this logic.

 

Matt "Punt God" Araiza would be as close to a sure thing as you could get.

Araiza is also a pretty good place kicker, so there's your backup to Bass in case of injury as well.

 

The top 3 punters in the league make almost $4M/yr and their teams never let them go. They are game changers.

 

Using a 4th would sting a bit, but I'd do it. He likely won't be around in the 5th-7th.

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

3 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

Yeah, I’d rather use a pick on a punter than on a backup player that isn’t likely to make the team and probably would get stolen from the practice squad anyway.

Siran Neal, Matt Milano, and Tommy Doyle say hi from the 5th round....

[Canadian Bills Fan]

No doubt the kid seems amazing. The fact he is left footed is interesting as the Bills seem to love left footed punters lol Also, the fact that he can kick would be interesting in case God forbid anything happens to Bass but I totally agree about him with no holding experience. I do think he can be taught that though.

 

I originally thought nothing higher than a 4th but I'm leaning towards nothing higher than a 5th.

 

But we know this is all moot right guys? We know how this will play out....

 

Some team will be insane and draft him in the 3rd, Rich Eisen will lose his $#*T and continue to declare punters are people too.

[Mr. WEO]

12 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

better field position, offense has to drive longer to score.   Gives the D, esp the playmaking  secondary more time to make a play. 

 

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

Punter?  HELL NO.   Offense and more offense.  Go for it on every 4th.  No punts 

 

36 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

The difference between the very best punter and the worst in the NFL is a whole 8 yards on average.  A team punts on average about 4 times a game, the Bills punted on average 3.05 times a game last year.  How much is 25 yards a game worth to you? (Assuming you get the very best guy and Buffalo winds don’t skew their stats back to the middle of the pack where it’s more like a 4 yard a kick difference). BTW the difference between the best punter and worst when looking at Net is only 7 yards and the best average distance punter is not the best Net. 

 

A great punter is a nice thing to have, but the amount of times that 4-8 yards makes a big difference is rare.  The Bills could/should upgrade as Haack is one of the worst in the league no matter how you shape it, but to talk about a 3rd round pick is nuts.  

 

Well put.  The value of a punter, especially to a team that has a top D (even with a current "bad" Punter) is being way over rated here.  The difference among them has such a small delta, that their impact is miniscule.  

 

But if you need to fil a roster spot for the longer term, I see no problem blowing a throwaway pick like a 6 or even a 5 on one.

[Tanoros]

14 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:

Normally I would agree, but for an immediate impact player I would absolutely do it. Day 1 starter. I’d rather have him than a potential PS player waiting to make a start 3/4 of the way into the season

Matt Milano and Taron Johnson are both 4th/5th round picks and they are legitimate starters. Sure they both had to develop for a time, but we NEED to draft starters/future starters who will be on rookie contracts with Josh’s higher pay coming next season. 
 

Can we use an upgrade at punter? Sure, but punter wasn’t the reason we lost to KC, and most everyone feels if 13 seconds went different we may have won it all. 
 

I’m sure we can get an upgrade at punter either in FA or draft, even if it isn’t Arazia. To answer your question, 5th at the absolute earliest, but I’d prefer the 6th round. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Tanoros

[Tanoros]

7 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:

I probably should have clarified- I was thinking in that scenario if we traded back up and it cost us some of the lower round picks. I wouldn’t mind if we did that if we think he’s the guy. I’d rather pass on fliers in the 6th like Wildgoose and Hamlin and use those picks (plus maybe a swap of 5ths) to

move back up late in the 4th and get a day 1 starter

This is draft is one of the deepest drafts in years, whereas last years draft was one of the least deep drafts in years. Even then, Hamlin didn’t look bad as a rookie. 
 

So many completely undervalue late round picks. Plenty of starters and/or good players come from the later rounds, and in deep draft like this one, there should be more than in most years. 
 

As other posters have pointed out, punters across the board aren’t much different from the worst to the best in the NFL, and rotational/special teams players will have many more snaps then the punter over the course of a season. 
 

I trust Beane whatever he does, but I’d be absolutely stunned if he took a punter in the 4th, much less trading up into the 3rd. That’s just insane, especially when we need contributors on rookie deals with Josh’s contract ballooning next season. 

[DCofNC]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

I'm sure I'll be in the minority here, but I actually agree with this logic.

 

Matt "Punt God" Araiza would be as close to a sure thing as you could get.

Araiza is also a pretty good place kicker, so there's your backup to Bass in case of injury as well.

 

The top 3 punters in the league make almost $4M/yr and their teams never let them go. They are game changers.

 

Using a 4th would sting a bit, but I'd do it. He likely won't be around in the 5th-7th.

I see your point on the salary of a punter, but even still, I’d look later in the draft if at all.  Traditionally, punters get drafted very late, if at all.  To my earlier point, I don’t think the difference is there to use a pick on one.  Bojo was a good punter for no investment, his holding sucked bad enough to cost him his job.  Haack is the opposite.  On the overall Bojo averaged about 4yards better than Haack and aside from the SLOW kick that cost the Pitt game, it really didn’t matter all year.

[Realist]

14 hours ago, Riverboat Ritchie said:

 

No opinion on this punter, as I'm not a college guy, I rely on you guys for my draft knowledge...I'm in trouble, I know. However, what use are these college highlight reels? If there was a highlight reel of my high school days, I would look like an all pro DB, when I was mediocre at best.

[clearwater cadet]

Left footed?  Pats are taking him in the first!

[Rigotz]

17 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I see your point on the salary of a punter, but even still, I’d look later in the draft if at all.  Traditionally, punters get drafted very late, if at all.  To my earlier point, I don’t think the difference is there to use a pick on one.  Bojo was a good punter for no investment, his holding sucked bad enough to cost him his job.  Haack is the opposite.  On the overall Bojo averaged about 4yards better than Haack and aside from the SLOW kick that cost the Pitt game, it really didn’t matter all year.

 

My counter-point is that punt length isn't the only trait you're looking for in great punters.

Both Haack and Bojo were terrible at "coffin corner" punting.

 

When you pin an offense inside their 1-3 yard line, that's usually an immediate stop and good field position for your team.

It's way more important than the net 4 yards you mentioned. Bojo and Haack would almost always sail it into the end zone.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Rigotz

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Both Haack and Bojo were terrible at "coffin corner" punting.

They didn't need to be good at it!  The Coriolis Effect of the left footed kick would have allowed for the proper roll! 😠

*
😁

[BigAl2526]

I've seen several multi-round mock drafts projecting Araiza to the Bills, anywhere from round 5 to 7.  I also saw a mock with Buffalo picking the second ranked punter prospect, though Araiza is the one with the freakish leg strength.  I'd be very comfortable with Araiza in the 5th, less so in the 4th.  There are some potential advantages, but also a risk.  Sometimes punters outkick their coverage, leading to huge returns.  Hopefully, he has the accuracy to put a punt out of bounds without sacrificing a lot of the punt's length for times when a big return could be especially costly.  

[pennstate10]

Stout from PSU is also a very good punter. 
amd kickoff specialist as well. Over 90% of his kickoffs were touchbacks. 

 

He should be available in 6th round. 

[MrEpsYtown]

I get that their are other punters in the draft, but this regime has been pretty adamant about their preference of a lefty. They went after Bojo, Dustin Colquitt, Michael Palardy, and of course Haack. McDermott preaches field position and flipping the field etc. Araiza seems like exactly what they would want. 

 

I get that we don't punt a whole lot, but when we do typically all hell breaks loose. I think this guy makes too much sense. The issue is that there are a few teams with a lot of draft picks in first few rounds and someone will take him early.  

[pennstate10]

I’m not sure that Araiza is the generational punter that it might seem. 
 

go to the football database. 
https://www.footballdb.com/college-football/stats/stats.html?mode=U&yr=2021&lg=FBS&sort=puntnet

 

sort by NET punting. Araiza is 8th. Note also that his return yds are much worse than any of the top 10. 
 

Finally, note that 3 punters stand out for most punts inside the 20. Of these 3 punters, Stout has the highest percent of punts inside the 30. 

[Iiiiiiiiive Got a Feeeelin]

Okay so that first punt in the highlight reel...thats like a 90 yard punt or something ridiculous.  wow what a leg

[chris heff]

Is he the guy that played Agador Spartacus in The Birdcage?

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, Rigotz said:

 

My counter-point is that punt length isn't the only trait you're looking for in great punters.

Both Haack and Bojo were terrible at "coffin corner" punting.

 

When you pin an offense inside their 1-3 yard line, that's usually an immediate stop and good field position for your team.

It's way more important than the net 4 yards you mentioned. Bojo and Haack would almost always sail it into the end zone.

The funny part is that was supposed to be Haack’s specialty.   Overall, he just had a terrible year, I don’t know if it was just a down year or if he sucks in general.

[John from Riverside]

7 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

Hey, the Raiders picked Ray Guy in the first round!
 

Just win, baby!!

Yeah I would prefer if we not follow the Raiders model of doing things.....

[billybrew1]

22 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:

So, we obviously have a few needs to address like lost teams in the draft. With where we are picking, it’ll likely be the 3rd or 4th best player in their respective position in Round 1. We have a few players on Defense who were early picks and have been rotational in our system, which I am fine with as they get acclimated to the NFL.

 

That being said, Punter is a definite need for this team. Haack certainly had some ugly punts this year, and while I don’t think we will or should address punter in round 1, it does beg the question on where we could potentially select him.

 

This isn’t just some kid with a decent leg- he’s the holder of multiple NCAA record and has an average of over 50 yards per punt. He’s a legitimate generational talent at his position, and could significantly help the special teams in pinning back our opponents. 
 

If we were to go for him, what round do you feel comfortable taking him, and so you think he will last that long?

 

I’d be totally fine in round 4 if he lasts that long, or moving a few late rounders to get back into the end of round 3

Where was Ray guy drafted? Or Jankowski? Because they were raiders does it not count? IDK? I don’t think we’re dying to have the best punter with Josh being our QB, but I would like to upgrade.

Somehow, we need to keep the offense as good as it is now or even better. To me, that means at least seven viable weapons and good line. Last year, even with Bates, we maybe were closer to decent than actually good. I’d love to upgrade the OL.

And far as defense goes, it is no where near the best defense in the league. We need to upgrade that DL a lot, imho. That means the premium picks go to the defense unless the BPA is clearly an O player when we make those picks.

so, IDK? It’s not a very good question. It largely would be decided by who is there on board when you make that pick in the round. It sounds like he might be a great pick in the sixth, but really, you have to go by your board. McBeane has been able to get pretty good secondary players late in the draft or even after it.

It would feel good to have a guy that makes plays from that punter position though…Plus a guy you can trust to not screw it up.

IDK? I don’t feel great about our chances of improving the defense today and that’s just sad….

[Bill from NYC]

22 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Buffalo selecting non-football player TJ Graham 69th overall and Jacksonville selecting punter Bryan Anger 70th...........with Russell Wilson still on the board(he went 75th).........might be the dumbest consecutive draft picks in NFL history.

 

 

Agreed.

That said, (although not consecutive) Whitner/McCargo/Youboty/Simpson in 2006 are the worst 4 in a row I have ever seen, and Levy actually traded up to get these losers.

 

[Riverboat Ritchie]

12 hours ago, transient said:

Nope… can’t do it. Not even the offseason can get me to watch 6 minutes of punting highlights. 

lol. By may/June you’ll be all over the punter highlights. Kid can kick and gets down the field and tackles also. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 3/2/2022 at 7:01 PM, KingBoots8 said:

So, we obviously have a few needs to address like lost teams in the draft. With where we are picking, it’ll likely be the 3rd or 4th best player in their respective position in Round 1. We have a few players on Defense who were early picks and have been rotational in our system, which I am fine with as they get acclimated to the NFL.

 

That being said, Punter is a definite need for this team. Haack certainly had some ugly punts this year, and while I don’t think we will or should address punter in round 1, it does beg the question on where we could potentially select him.

 

This isn’t just some kid with a decent leg- he’s the holder of multiple NCAA record and has an average of over 50 yards per punt. He’s a legitimate generational talent at his position, and could significantly help the special teams in pinning back our opponents. 
 

If we were to go for him, what round do you feel comfortable taking him, and so you think he will last that long?

 

I’d be totally fine in round 4 if he lasts that long, or moving a few late rounders to get back into the end of round 3

 

Id prefer the 5th but i could live with a 4rth. I dont believe in drafting punters but this kid is a special talent and could win us games because of how far he can kick the ball, he is basically making the opposing offense go an extra 10-20 yards every drive, which really adds up over the course of a game.

 

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 3/2/2022 at 7:55 PM, BruceSlayne said:

Trade for that Bojorquez kid up in Green Bay I heard he is pretty good

 

Should have kept him, was a dumb move to let him go.

 

 

[Paul Costa]

32 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Should have kept him, was a dumb move to let him go.

 

 

Mason Crosby wishes we would have kept him too 🤭

[ElMarko]

If you draft a punter that stays with the team for 10-12 years - who cares if it's a 3rd rounder or 4th rounder? Who was the Bills' 4th round pick in 2013?

[GunnerBill]

23 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

I’m not sure that Araiza is the generational punter that it might seem. 
 

go to the football database. 
https://www.footballdb.com/college-football/stats/stats.html?mode=U&yr=2021&lg=FBS&sort=puntnet

 

sort by NET punting. Araiza is 8th. Note also that his return yds are much worse than any of the top 10. 
 

Finally, note that 3 punters stand out for most punts inside the 20. Of these 3 punters, Stout has the highest percent of punts inside the 30. 

 

The absolute worse thing you can do as a punter is out kick your coverage. That is worse that shanking it out 20 yards from where you punt because outkicking your coverage is where big, dangerous, potentially game altering returns come from. 

1 hour ago, ElMarko said:

If you draft a punter that stays with the team for 10-12 years - who cares if it's a 3rd rounder or 4th rounder? Who was the Bills' 4th round pick in 2013?

 

I think it was the first Duke Williams. The safety. 

[MrEpsYtown]

I saw on facebook that the Bills visited with Araiza at the combine. Don't know how to link it or anything. I don't think it is a huge deal, but it is interesting. Are teams limited on how many people they can visit with at the combine? 

[JESSEFEFFER]

Ran 4.68 40 and covers his own punts with enthusiasm.  Probably needs to develop a variety of alternate kick skills but I'd be OK with the Bills drafting an elite leg with plus athletic ability.  There may still be an obvious roster spot for him come draft time and Anderson and Wildgoose are examples of what happens to talent that has no place on the roster.   Might be a chance he could be a big upgrade ala T Bass.

 

PFF takes a look at a punters' value.

[ndirish1978]

Just sign Bryan Anger