Showdown with Pats is a judgment day for Sean McDermott, Bills

[HOUSE]

 

Mark Gaughan

 

It’s Judgment Day in a lot of ways for the 2021 Buffalo Bills on Sunday against the New England Patriots.

Actually, let’s call it Judgment Day, Part 1, since the final judgment on the Bills will be made based on what they do in January.

• Can Sean McDermott avoid being outcoached by Bill Belichick?

• Did Brandon Beane build a team geared toward beating the Kansas City Chiefs and fail to keep a keener eye on beating the Patriots?

• Can Brian Daboll find the right adjustments against the defensive wizardry of his chief pro football mentor?

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/mark-gaughan-showdown-with-pats-is-a-judgment-day-for-sean-mcdermott-bills/article_d00ac162-6364-11ec-a9bf-6b672cd22306.html

[Inigo Montoya]

I would also like to add to the list of burning questions to be answered this Sunday;

 

*  Will Spencer Brown taunt a Patriots player to the point of tears?

*  Will Mac Jones get up after a scramble and triumphantly signal "First Down!" three yards short of the marker?

*  Will Bill Belichick's son make more goofy faces on the sideline?

 

[LeGOATski]

Buffalo Bills, Season 61, Episode 15

 

Greatest show ever.

[SydneyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

 

Mark Gaughan

 

It’s Judgment Day in a lot of ways for the 2021 Buffalo Bills on Sunday against the New England Patriots.

Actually, let’s call it Judgment Day, Part 1, since the final judgment on the Bills will be made based on what they do in January.

• Can Sean McDermott avoid being outcoached by Bill Belichick?

• Did Brandon Beane build a team geared toward beating the Kansas City Chiefs and fail to keep a keener eye on beating the Patriots?

• Can Brian Daboll find the right adjustments against the defensive wizardry of his chief pro football mentor?

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/mark-gaughan-showdown-with-pats-is-a-judgment-day-for-sean-mcdermott-bills/article_d00ac162-6364-11ec-a9bf-6b672cd22306.html

 

McD being outcoached is a given, but there is no shame in that. He just has to coach competently - no wasted time outs, going for it on 4th and short in the Pats half, no stupid challenges, better clock management etc.

 

Beane needs to build a well-rounded roster with extra emphasis on offense to marry up with the talent he spent $258 million on. He can see where the weaknesses are, he just has to cut the dead wood, nail the draft (where he has recently missed a few) and make one or two BIG free agent signings.

 

Daboll needs to be less vanilla and more creative, although he is a bit limited with our OL - especially this week.

Edited December 24, 2021 by SydneyBillsFan

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

It's really starting to simplify for the Bills. If they lose to NE, they're more than likely going to be looking at needing either BAL or CIN to lose two of three.

 

BAL:

@CIN

LAR

PIT

 

CIN:

BAL

KC

@CLE

 

That's why this BAL-CIN game this week is so critical. Really need the Ravens to win. Then we would just need the Chiefs to beat the Bengals.

 

If the Bengals beat the Ravens, I think the Bills will miss the playoffs. CIN will go 2-1 with wins over BAL and @CLE, and BAL will also go 2-1 with home wins over LAR and PIT to close the season.

[downunderbill]

Relaaax we got this.

[CSBill]

I see the Bills player and Mafia with a lot of complaints about the national media, and pro-bowl voters, disrespecting them. That may be true, but when you're 8-6, you have given those disrespectors all the evidence they need to do so. In all this, the only people to blame is ourselves. Lossing to Jacksonville, lossing three games (Tenn, NE, TB) where you had the ball inside the 10 yard line with a chance to win in the last minute of the game--and not doing it, laying an egg against the Steelers on opening day, and being blown-out by the Colts on your home field. I know we don't want to hear this, but we have earned that disrepsect.

 

The bottom-line, the ONLY thing that will change their minds, WINS!

 

Win on Sunday, and WIN the next 2 Sundays, and a few WINS after that, and all that will change.

 

Just WIN baby, just WIN!

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

 

[RangerDave]

3 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

McD being outcoached is a given, but there is no shame in that.

If every coach who got out-coached by Bill Belichick was fired for that, there would be no coaches left in the NFL after the last 20 years.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

3 minutes ago, RangerDave said:

If every coach who got out-coached by Bill Belichick was fired for that, there would be no coaches left in the NFL after the last 20 years.

Well, Bill placing envelopes stuffed with Benjamins in the officials' locker room doesn't hurt, either. 😁

"Hey!  I saw that!"

[HOUSE]

I think its a little un fair to judge McDermott on this weeks game. But it is what it is.

 

Get the clapper going and don't waste your time outs

 

The players will determine the outcome....

 

Ho-Ho-Ho

[Matt_In_NH]

4 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

McD being outcoached is a given

Is it?  Boston media is hard on BB at times.....when they lose.  Buffalo media is hard on McDermott this year.....because they have lost more games than we all planned on IMO.   Fans do what fans do, sit back with their beers and donuts and think they are smarter than the guys at the top of their profession, I do it, we all do it.  But sometimes I think we should take a step back and give McDermott a little slack.  He is a great coach and leader.

 

Go back and watch the game in Foxboro last year when the Patriots brought up 10 men to rush and left the gunners uncovered....the Bills were coached, prepared and executed a fake punt that was not the plan on that play.  Who was throwing the tablet around because the guy on the other side was getting the better of him?  They converted that to a first down and went on to beat them down after that.  Who outcoached who in that spot?   That was 11 men being on the same page for a silent audible, that was coaching, that was being prepared.  

Edited December 24, 2021 by mattynh

[Freddie's Dead]

Ahnold is the Bills, Robert Patrick is the Cheats:

 

h

13 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Ho-Ho-Ho

 

Who you callin' a 'ho'?

[Talley56]

3 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

It's really starting to simplify for the Bills. If they lose to NE, they're more than likely going to be looking at needing either BAL or CIN to lose two of three.

 

BAL:

@CIN

LAR

PIT

 

CIN:

BAL

KC

@CLE

 

That's why this BAL-CIN game this week is so critical. Really need the Ravens to win. Then we would just need the Chiefs to beat the Bengals.

 

If the Bengals beat the Ravens, I think the Bills will miss the playoffs. CIN will go 2-1 with wins over BAL and @CLE, and BAL will also go 2-1 with home wins over LAR and PIT to close the season.

Interesting, the Bills may need the Ravens to beat the Bengals to help get us in.

 

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

I personally think the Ravens luck has run out and feel the Rams are more likely to win that game. 
 

However I’d rather The Bills handle their own business instead of relying on others. Basically we would be backing into the playoffs not beating any significant team. 

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Well, Bill placing envelopes stuffed with Benjamins in the officials' locker room doesn't hurt, either. 😁

"Hey!  I saw that!"

Looks like he’s using them backwards...😉

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

It's really starting to simplify for the Bills. If they lose to NE, they're more than likely going to be looking at needing either BAL or CIN to lose two of three.

 

BAL:

@CIN

LAR

PIT

 

CIN:

BAL

KC

@CLE

 

That's why this BAL-CIN game this week is so critical. Really need the Ravens to win. Then we would just need the Chiefs to beat the Bengals.

 

If the Bengals beat the Ravens, I think the Bills will miss the playoffs. CIN will go 2-1 with wins over BAL and @CLE, and BAL will also go 2-1 with home wins over LAR and PIT to close the season.

It’s really pretty simple. There are eight teams with a record of 8-6 or better but only seven playoff spots. So the question is if the Bills lose on Sunday do you see any of the other four 8-6 teams going 1-2? (BAL, CIN, LAC, IND). Each of them has at least one tough opponent including BAL playing CIN so that’ll cement the one we root for.

[Orlando Tim]

I am not one for hyperbole but I have not wanted a regular season like I want this one since at least the 90's. To beat them in their house with just as much on the line for them as us would make my Christmas .

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

20 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Looks like he’s using them backwards...😉

I see nuth-THING!  I know nuth-THING!

[hondo in seattle]

I don't think Beane intentionally built the team to beat the Chiefs - but not the Pats.  That's silly.  With 31 other teams to worry about, no GM would build a team just to beat one other team.  I do think Beane intentionally built a passing team: one that both throws the ball well and defends the pass effectively.   And the logic for that is simple: the NFL is more and more a passing league.   

 

The Bills weren't good at much of anything when Beane came to town.  He had to start somewhere and I don't think he's done yet.  He's not running around yelling, "Mission Accomplished - I built a Super Bowl team!"  But I do think he probably overestimated the quality of our OL.  And that mistake is hurting us.

 

We do have a matchup problem against the Pats  pass D.  Impressively, their pass D is as good as ours.  Their defensive strength may negate our offensive strength.   But when they're on offense, they can run the ball which is the Achilles heel of our defense.  

 

I hardly consider this Judgment Day for McD.   It is a HUGE game.  We really need to win.  But there's no shame in losing to Belichick.  Lots of other highly capable coaches have done it.  Losing doesn't tell us that McD is not the guy to (eventually) lead us back to the Super Bowl.  

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

Oooh, another judgement day.

 

Don't worry come Monday should the Bills win, the McD fans will be here to shout again as to how good a coach he is and that the win proved it.

 

Should they (shudder) lose, they'll be blame to shift.

 

Perfect example was the first NE game or TB game.  All the excuses absolving McD vs. NE on Monday night.  Then TB, and it was McD who took over the defense (where did that come from) the second half and was responsible for then containing TB12 (oh don't bring up NO shutting them out) and ignoring all the mistakes the first half.....

[JohnNord]

7 hours ago, HOUSE said:

 

Mark Gaughan

 

It’s Judgment Day in a lot of ways for the 2021 Buffalo Bills on Sunday against the New England Patriots.

Actually, let’s call it Judgment Day, Part 1, since the final judgment on the Bills will be made based on what they do in January.

• Can Sean McDermott avoid being outcoached by Bill Belichick?

• Did Brandon Beane build a team geared toward beating the Kansas City Chiefs and fail to keep a keener eye on beating the Patriots?

• Can Brian Daboll find the right adjustments against the defensive wizardry of his chief pro football mentor?

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/mark-gaughan-showdown-with-pats-is-a-judgment-day-for-sean-mcdermott-bills/article_d00ac162-6364-11ec-a9bf-6b672cd22306.html

Good article but a few things stuck out to me:

 

”It’s also on McDermott to manage the game flawlessly, because Belichick is brilliant at game management.”

 

Belichick is a brilliant game manager?  Wasn’t he criticized for his game management last week.  I’d say he’s good but wouldn’t call him “brilliant” when it comes to game management.
 

“Coaching is huge, but Belichick is right. The players have to execute.

Hughes, Addison and Lotulelei have three of the top six salary cap figures on the team this year. The Bills need a good finish to the season from all three.”

 

Yeah so this isn’t happening.  None of these three will have any impact on the game.  They’ve been largely invisible all season long and might make a nice play here or there - but they aren’t affecting the game in a big way.  

 

 

 

[HoofHearted]

This idea that we are built defensively to just beat the Chiefs is a fallacy - we are built to stop modern offenses. There's two ways to build a defense - be bigger than everyone or be faster than everyone. We've built our defense to be faster and more athletic than everyone. You see the Buccaneers following this same philosophy and don't hear anyone saying anything about them being only built to beat the Chiefs.

[Bills92]

Said it before.. I'll say it again...  Regardless of result, there is a good chance we meet the Pats again in the playoffs.  I know it's easy to get caught up in the moment.. but guys like Beane and Coach get paid millions of dollars for a whole bunch of reasons... but one of them is to not lose sight of the big picture.

 

They have built this team to win consistently for years to come and we as a fandom should not lose site of that.

 

Go Bills

[BigDingus]

Best quote of the article, by Belichick, & it happens to be something I feel the need to constantly remind people on these boards (especially after losses, when calls for every coach's head flood the front page) - 

"...in the end, players win games,” Belichick said. “Players make plays to win games. Without good players and without good players making good plays, there are not a lot of games to be won. Whatever strategy, game plans, or plays that we use, whatever they were in any game, ultimately, comes down to the players, their execution, decision making and fundamentals on those plays."

 

I want to really emphasize that last part too. Trying not to rant (as I tend to do lately, apologies), nor to crap on any player, but for example....

1. It's 4th & 1 on our side of the field, close game against the Pats, down by a score with 5 mins left in the game. We decide to go for it, ball snaps, oh it's not a run play... but wait, Knox is wide open, man beat, streaking down the left sideline. Allen lobs one up, hits Knox in the hands...drops it. 

 

Many fans (not all) might freak out, rage against the call, say we should've ran it instead, etc. My issue is it wasn't the play call at fault. Everything worked as designed. The opponent was beat. Allen had time to pass, got his look, caught the Pats off guard, but a drop ruined it. 

 

2. The amount of times I've heard both "we're too one dimensional, we need to run more & take pressure off Allen," while also hearing "running the ball is a waste, passing is our strength!" is crazy...

 

When Allen throws 50+ times in a game, we tend to lose. But when the O-line gets pushed around, or we're not getting big chunks of yards right away on the ground, fans instantly get frustrated & think we're wasting possessions. When something isn't working, it's always the coaches getting blamed for not doing more of the other thing... or it's the usual claims of a poor game plan, failing to adjust, giving up on the run, or whatever cliché people throw around.

 

Sure, we'll go down the line & blame everyone else too when we're mad (hell, even up to Beane for team construction) after a loss, but remember, these guys got to the AFC Championship game last year. McDermott has helped the Bills be a playoff team 3 of his 4 full seasons here (compared to 0 out of 17 seasons the other half dozen provided). 

 

Last week added plenty of validity to Belichick's statement. Spencer Brown alone... dude was a turnstile, otherwise he was setting the Bills back penalty after penalty. Some could blame coaching for lack of discipline, but the more simple explanation is he was the inferior PLAYER & getting beat by a superior PLAYER. 

 

*****************

 

TL;DR: Anyway, just a friendly reminder when reflecting on games (especially immediately after losses), what did the PLAYERS do/fail to do. Were they fundamentally sound? Did they take advantage of the opportunities on the field? Did they throw picks or fumble away? Did they overthrow open receivers, or did the receivers drop perfect passes? All of it factors into the results. Coaching matters, but good players executing better than the opponent matters most. 👍

 

 

[Big Turk]

8 hours ago, HOUSE said:

 

Mark Gaughan

 

It’s Judgment Day in a lot of ways for the 2021 Buffalo Bills on Sunday against the New England Patriots.

Actually, let’s call it Judgment Day, Part 1, since the final judgment on the Bills will be made based on what they do in January.

• Can Sean McDermott avoid being outcoached by Bill Belichick?

• Did Brandon Beane build a team geared toward beating the Kansas City Chiefs and fail to keep a keener eye on beating the Patriots?

• Can Brian Daboll find the right adjustments against the defensive wizardry of his chief pro football mentor?

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/mark-gaughan-showdown-with-pats-is-a-judgment-day-for-sean-mcdermott-bills/article_d00ac162-6364-11ec-a9bf-6b672cd22306.html

 

COVID going to decide the division I guess.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

COVID going to decide the division I guess.

With a little help from the zebras. 

[GLP]

Yeah, I'd say that's correct. Win and we're their peers, lose and we're their play thing. Something to toy with.

[BillsVet]

I expect Buffalo to win this game.  A team with Josh Allen is better than one featuring Mac Jones at quarterback.

 

As much as in-game decisions are ripe for criticism, it's the game-planning that matters more.  That said, intra-division opponents tend to be tougher considering the familiarity teams have with each other.  In this second game, that can work to their advantage or not.    

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

3 hours ago, HOUSE said:

I think its a little un fair to judge McDermott on this weeks game. But it is what it is.

 

Get the clapper going and don't waste your time outs

 

The players will determine the outcome....

 

Ho-Ho-Ho

 

It's not unfair to judge a guy who has a dismal career record against playoff teams/teams with winning records during his time in Buffalo, including last year which obviously was an anomaly in hindsight and probably the peak of his tenure here in Buffalo when it's all said and done and he's gone in the next few years.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's not unfair to judge a guy who has a dismal career record against playoff teams/teams with winning records during his time in Buffalo, including last year which obviously was an anomaly in hindsight and probably the peak of his tenure here in Buffalo when it's all said and done and he's gone in the next few years.

I personally wanted to hire Frank Reich at the time, but this is premature pessimism which you luxuriate in on a regular basis.

[FilthyBeast]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I personally wanted to hire Frank Reich at the time, but this is premature pessimism which you luxuriate in on a regular basis.

 

It's not premature, go look at McDermott's career record against playoff teams. Last year was the only year he was .500 or better against teams that made that ended up making the playoffs and actually won a playoff game for that matter.

 

This year he's likely going to be 1-6 against such teams and that only win against KC has an asterisk since it came when they were missing Chris Jones and in their early season type of funk like Pats teams of years past. And even if this team backs in as a WC the data suggests another quick one and done appearance.

 

I know some fans have some sort of loyalty and conviction to this regime given how dismal things were in Buffalo prior to 2017 but I still firmly believe that if/when Josh Allen wins a SB in Buffalo it's going to be with a different GM and HC.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's not premature, go look at McDermott's career record against playoff teams. Last year was the only year he was .500 or better against teams that made that ended up making the playoffs and actually won a playoff game for that matter.

 

This year he's likely going to be 1-6 against such teams and that only win against KC has an asterisk since it came when they were missing Chris Jones and in their early season type of funk like Pats teams of years past. And even if this team backs in as a WC the data suggests another quick one and done appearance.

 

I know some fans have some sort of loyalty and conviction to this regime given how dismal things were in Buffalo prior to 2017 but I still firmly believe that if/when Josh Allen wins a SB in Buffalo it's going to be with a different GM and HC.

Well, we'll see if this year is typical or not. Whether the tear down initially institututed was necessary is separate for this argument. McDermott's first teams were not designed to win against the better teams. Last year is the first year one could reasonably expect wins in that scenario, so your analysis is not convincing to me. I strongly suspect significant attention will be given to the oline in the offseason. If they get that right, Allen is so good he will elevate the play of the offensive playmakers on the team. I expect McD would have more success in that case. If not, your projection becomes more plausible.

[GoBills808]

Playoff teams and teams with winning records usually have…winning records…so you’re not going to have a great win% against them🤦‍♂️

[hondo in seattle]

8 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

 

McD being outcoached is a given, but there is no shame in that. He just has to coach competently - no wasted time outs, going for it on 4th and short in the Pats half, no stupid challenges, better clock management etc.

...

 

 

The overall strength of the Bills coaching staff rivals the overall strength of the Pats coaching staff.   As much respect as I have for BB, I don't think being outcoached is a given.  We'll see.

[RochesterLifer]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's not unfair to judge a guy who has a dismal career record against playoff teams/teams with winning records during his time in Buffalo, including last year which obviously was an anomaly in hindsight and probably the peak of his tenure here in Buffalo when it's all said and done and he's gone in the next few years.

Lemme see, we will draw conclusions by emphasizing negatives and negating positives. Will will ignore the two 2020 playoff victories and sweep of the Patriots. You be you Filthy. Just don't expect to be taken seriously.

23 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

The overall strength of the Bills coaching staff rivals the overall strength of the Pats coaching staff.   As much respect as I have for BB, I don't think being outcoached is a given.  We'll see.

We weren't outreached two weeks ago. We were in repeated positions to win. We just didn't finish.

[PromoTheRobot]

No it's not. In fact if you think this way Belichick lives in your head and will never leave. Stop giving him that power over you.

[MJS]

8 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

 

McD being outcoached is a given, but there is no shame in that. He just has to coach competently - no wasted time outs, going for it on 4th and short in the Pats half, no stupid challenges, better clock management etc.

 

Beane needs to build a well-rounded roster with extra emphasis on offense to marry up with the talent he spent $258 million on. He can see where the weaknesses are, he just has to cut the dead wood, nail the draft (where he has recently missed a few) and make one or two BIG free agent signings.

 

Daboll needs to be less vanilla and more creative, although he is a bit limited with our OL - especially this week.

The always going for it on 4th down thing is silly. We've seen tons of teams lose this year because they didn't take the points in field goal range. Meanwhile, we have Bill Belichick, who everyone says is the best coach ever, who almost always takes the points and kicks field goals if he is in range. McDermott gets blasted for being conservative, when Bill Belichick is undeniably a conservative coach.

 

In my opinion you should go for it sometimes, when the situation demands it, but you should take fields goals most of the time. Points are going to be valuable in this game, and I don't trust our COVID decimated oline to successfully help the team convert 4th downs.

 

The key is to play mistake free, fundamental football. That's what Bill Belichick does. He doesn't follow trends. He doesn't rely too much on analytics. He just plays fundamental football, game plans to take away a team's strength, and waits for the other team to make mistakes and beat themselves.

[Paup 1995MVP]

3 hours ago, Bills92 said:

Said it before.. I'll say it again...  Regardless of result, there is a good chance we meet the Pats again in the playoffs.  I know it's easy to get caught up in the moment.. but guys like Beane and Coach get paid millions of dollars for a whole bunch of reasons... but one of them is to not lose sight of the big picture.

 

They have built this team to win consistently for years to come and we as a fandom should not lose site of that.

 

Go Bills

The problem is that this roster is not strong enuf in the trenches as it is now built to do that.  We need a major overhaul of the O line, and at least one big dominating DT and better edge rushing.  And a powerful RB.  Without Josh Allen this is easily a below 500 team.

[Nextmanup]

5 hours ago, HOUSE said:

I think its a little un fair to judge McDermott on this weeks game. But it is what it is.

 

Get the clapper going and don't waste your time outs

 

The players will determine the outcome....

 

Ho-Ho-Ho

Judging anyone on one game is unfair.

 

It is not unfair, however, to judge McDermott on 4 years of work plus the game on Sunday.

 

Is he ever going to be able to out-coach a really good coach?  Ever?

 

If not, wouldn't it be a good idea to try and find one and hire someone who can?

 

Or are we always going to be content to lose a few games shy of the big dance?

 

Lots of organizations are...in all sports.

 

 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Good article but a few things stuck out to me:

 

”It’s also on McDermott to manage the game flawlessly, because Belichick is brilliant at game management.”

 

Belichick is a brilliant game manager?  Wasn’t he criticized for his game management last week.  I’d say he’s good but wouldn’t call him “brilliant” when it comes to game management.
 

“Coaching is huge, but Belichick is right. The players have to execute.

Hughes, Addison and Lotulelei have three of the top six salary cap figures on the team this year. The Bills need a good finish to the season from all three.”

 

Yeah so this isn’t happening.  None of these three will have any impact on the game.  They’ve been largely invisible all season long and might make a nice play here or there - but they aren’t affecting the game in a big way.  

 

 

 

The trick for this game is to give Allen enough time, and for him to have done enough homework, to be able to find the open man and throw him the football.  Without taking too much time.

 

When Josh can do that, we usually win by 20+ points.

 

When Josh struggles doing that, we might lose, get blown out, or win a really scary close one.

 

We have the better QB, by A LOT.

 

Either our coaching staff can find a way to leverage that into a win, or they can't.

 

Let's see what they do.

 

I'll say this: switch starting QBs and there is NO WAY New England loses this game!

 

I wish that were true for the Bills too.