Calling it now: Devin will be a 1000 yard back this year

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

1 FL in 8 fumbles is sorta not random.  If its 50/50 for a recovery (I think odds are worse, but having trouble finding data) then i get a p factor 0.04.  Thats statistically significant (despite a small data set of 8).  So his fumble loss rate is not necessarily random.

Thats amazing.  First glance i threw up because of the song.  But the histogrm was great.

Fumble recovery is absolutely random

 

There are a million factors

 

How many players are around the ball, where you fumble, is it getting kicked around... Are you near the sidelines

 

If you fumble the ball and you have three teammates around you of course you're going to have a better chance at recovering it , than if it's you and 3 opponents

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

1 FL in 8 fumbles is sorta not random.  If its 50/50 for a recovery (I think odds are worse, but having trouble finding data) then i get a p factor 0.04.  Thats statistically significant (despite a small data set of 8).  So his fumble loss rate is not necessarily random.

Thats amazing.  First glance i threw up because of the song.  But the histogrm was great.

This just means that he's more likely to lose the next one.... ☹️

[YattaOkasan]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Fumble recovery is absolutely random

 

There are a million factors

 

How many players are around the ball, where you fumble, is it getting kicked around... Are you near the sidelines

 

If you fumble the ball and you have three teammates around you of course you're going to have a better chance at recovering it , than if it's you and 3 opponents

At this point (again small sample size), the data does not support that its random for him.

9 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

This just means that he's more likely to lose the next one.... ☹️

Not how it works.  If I flip a coin 100 times in row as heads.  Does that make it more likely that my next flip is tails?

 

Offensive recovery is slightly greater than 50/50 (54%) on average.  This may increase the probability enough to be greater than 0.05 which would make it not necessarily statistically significant.  

Edited September 21, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[LeGOATski]

This guy analyzes fumbles every season, apparently... http://www.footballperspective.com/the-chargers-had-the-worst-fumble-luck-in-2019/#more-45909

5 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Not how it works.  If I flip a coin 100 times in row as heads.  Does that make it more likely that my next flip is tails?

I know... my post was in jest

 

It's still random.

[YattaOkasan]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He fumbled it and lost in the playoff game vs. Houston.

Thanks.  That would def make him not being doing anything different than normal.  And more likely hes just lucky.  Not sure how I missed as I was compiling data (cause his splits are still 8/2).

[dave mcbride]

Just now, YattaOkasan said:

Thanks.  That would def make him not being doing anything different than normal.  And more likely hes just lucky.  Not sure how I missed as I was compiling data (cause his splits are still 8/2).

I was wrong about that - I misremembered. He didn't fumble in that game. Sorry!

[YattaOkasan]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I was wrong about that - I misremembered. He didn't fumble in that game. Sorry!

Still caused me to recheck my data set, and there was one I missed.  8/2 would fall within random variability.  My question at this point is about the recovery rate for offense.  Does that mean they jump on the ball or does it include the OBs.  Singeltary does have 1 FR (I believe for his own fumble).  If its the former (offense jumps on the ball) Singeltary has been unlucky in recoveries.  

 

On average, the fumbling team recovered (or the ball went out of bounds, so the fumbling team retained possession) 53.5% of all fumbles in 2019. 

http://www.footballperspective.com/tag/fumbles/

 

Appears its the former so Singeltary is lucky @Buffalo716.  Though 3 more fumbles without a FL would push back towards non random space.

Edited September 21, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[QCity]

Calling out a RB hitting the 1,000 yard mark is sort of like predicting a QB hitting the 3,000 passing yard mark. It was great in the 1980's, but in today's game it doesn't really mean anything.

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, QCity said:

Calling out a RB hitting the 1,000 yard mark is sort of like predicting a QB hitting the 3,000 passing yard mark. It was great in the 1980's, but in today's game it doesn't really mean anything.

It does mean something these days with the decrease in running and increase in passing, as well as the more popular approach of running back by committee.

 

There were only 8 running backs to rush for 1,000 yards or more last year. In 1977, when there were only 14 games, there were 9. So I would contend that it is nearly as impressive today as it was back then given the changes of NFL offenses.

[Alphadawg7]

On 9/3/2021 at 4:42 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

I know, I know…we are a passing team and have a RB by committee type approach on paper.
 

But…I think we are going to see Devin actually be used more as a lead back than people think.  Moss will also still get touches, with Brieda likely being peppered in some too.

But I think Devin will average around 15 carries a game.  And with his career YPC  of 4.8 YPC that would put him at 1152 yards on a 16 game season, and 1224 on a 17 game season.

Ive been drafting Singletary late in FFL because he’s been available in every draft I’ve done in the later rounds with Moss always going ahead of him too.  But barring injury, I think that Devin is going to out touch Moss by a bigger margin than many expect.  
 

And to be clear, that’s not a knock on Moss by any means, I just think Singletary is going to be a break out player for us this year.  People forget in his rookie year, despite splitting carries, he was in the top 10 in most 20+ Yard runs, and averaged over 5 YPC.  Last year, coaches talked about how lack of camp hurt him, especially conditioning. 
 

Well this year he’s in the best shape of his life and I think he looks substantially better so far than he did last year and is going to be our most effective RB with Moss working more to spell him or down and short situations.  Brieda, if active on game days (skeptical you they will have 5 active RBs on game day) will be more of a receiving back in passing situations.

 

 

Sooooo…Devin did eclipse 1000 total yards, but came up a little over 100 yards short on 1000 rushing yards.   But that is only because Daboll didn’t pull his head out his back side until the final 4 games where they finally both featured Devin (71 Carry’s Over final 4 games) and ran the ball.  
 

But everything I said in my OP and thought mostly ended up being accurate, just Daboll didn’t realize it until 4 weeks ago unfortunately otherwise Devin would have gone way over 1000 yards had he been used like this past 4 weeks all season.  So still feel good about this thread.  
 

Maybe Daboll should follow me on TSW🤣😂🤣 

 

PS:  Maybe now people will give Devin more respect and the props he deserves.  He’s clearly our best RB and a weapon for this offense.

 

Project his last 4 games (average if 19 Carey’s a game) over a full season:  1374 yards rushing and 21 TDs.  
 

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[WotAGuy]

Calling it now -there’s gonna be more Alpha LAMP threads.  

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

100O yards over 17 games isn’t some awesome achievement TBH

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

100O yards over 17 games isn’t some awesome achievement TBH

If you project Devins last 4 games over a whole season it projects to be 1374 yards rushing, 21 TDs over a 17 game season.  
 

And that’s with Devin averaging just 19 Carry’s a game.  
 

You don’t think that’s impressive? 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[transplantbillsfan]

Honestly, he probably should've been over 1000 yards rushing on his own if we didn't commit so much ridiculous time to Zach Moss, who is terrible.

[Nelius]

He ended up with a nice 4.6 ypc for the year, which he steadily maintained pretty much all season. His career average is still 4.7 which is dang good for nearly 500 career carries. He definitely could have hit 1,000 if he was featured more earlier in the year, that's just math.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Nelius

[jlgarsh]

57 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Sooooo…Devin did eclipse 1000 total yards, but came up a little over 100 yards short on 1000 rushing yards.   But that is only because Daboll didn’t pull his head out his back side until the final 4 games where they finally both featured Devin (71 Carry’s Over final 4 games) and ran the ball.  
 

But everything I said in my OP and thought mostly ended up being accurate, just Daboll didn’t realize it until 4 weeks ago unfortunately otherwise Devin would have gone way over 1000 yards had he been used like this past 4 weeks all season.  So still feel good about this thread.  
 

Maybe Daboll should follow me on TSW🤣😂🤣 

 

PS:  Maybe now people will give Devin more respect and the props he deserves.  He’s clearly our best RB and a weapon for this offense.

 

Project his last 4 games (average if 19 Carey’s a game) over a full season:  1374 yards rushing and 21 TDs.  
 

 

I think Bates being in at LG has tremendously helped the running game. Wish they’d started him sooner, regardless of his versatility. Also, hats off the Mitch Morse for playing all 17 games after almost needing to retire. Lastly, great job Singletary turning his season around and dominating this last month!!!

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Sooooo…Devin did eclipse 1000 total yards, but came up a little over 100 yards short on 1000 rushing yards.   But that is only because Daboll didn’t pull his head out his back side until the final 4 games where they finally both featured Devin (71 Carry’s Over final 4 games) and ran the ball.  
 

But everything I said in my OP and thought mostly ended up being accurate, just Daboll didn’t realize it until 4 weeks ago unfortunately otherwise Devin would have gone way over 1000 yards had he been used like this past 4 weeks all season.  So still feel good about this thread.  
 

Maybe Daboll should follow me on TSW🤣😂🤣 

 

PS:  Maybe now people will give Devin more respect and the props he deserves.  He’s clearly our best RB and a weapon for this offense.

 

Project his last 4 games (average if 19 Carey’s a game) over a full season:  1374 yards rushing and 21 TDs.  
 

 

 

Hoping he doesn't have his usual key drop on a potential huge gain in the playoffs again like he has had in the last 2 playoff runs.

[ArtVandalay]

Antonio Williams would have had 2,000 yards 

[ganesh]

4 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

100O yards over 17 games isn’t some awesome achievement TBH

and this year is weird....there are only 7. 1000 yard RBs and some of them barely made it past the 1000 mark.

 

Player Yards/TD

Taylor. 1811/18

Chubb 1259/8

Mixon.  1205/13

Harris.  1200/7

Cook.   1159/6

Gibson 1037/7

Eliott.   1002/10

 

Weird to not see familiar faces such as Barkley, Kamara,  Fournette, etc.

[Chandler#81]

Ya done good, A-dawg!

[GunnerBill]

Why the bump? He got 800 and something. 

Edited January 10, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Why the bump? He got 700 and something. 

And an extra game to try to get there, too.

 

 

[Not at the table Karlos]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Why the bump? He got 700 and something. 

Giving final total even if the OP was incorrect. Good for them to see out their prediction to the very end right or wrong. Also he ended with 870 rushing yards.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Not at the table Karlos
Rushing yards rushing

[JMF2006]

870 yards for Motor

 

763 yards for Josh

[JMF2006]

2 hours ago, ganesh said:

and this year is weird....there are only 7. 1000 yard RBs and some of them barely made it past the 1000 mark.

 

Player Yards/TD

Taylor. 1811/18

Chubb 1259/8

Mixon.  1205/13

Harris.  1200/7

Cook.   1159/6

Gibson 1037/7

Eliott.   1002/10

 

Weird to not see familiar faces such as Barkley, Kamara,  Fournette, etc.

 

Could it possibly be that the Bills didn't want their backs all banged up going into the playoffs?

 

If Motor had the ball as much all year as he did in the last 4 weeks he probably wouldn't be able to walk let alone run.

[ArtVandalay]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

and this year is weird....there are only 7. 1000 yard RBs and some of them barely made it past the 1000 mark.

 

Player Yards/TD

Taylor. 1811/18

Chubb 1259/8

Mixon.  1205/13

Harris.  1200/7

Cook.   1159/6

Gibson 1037/7

Eliott.   1002/10

 

Weird to not see familiar faces such as Barkley, Kamara,  Fournette, etc.

Kamara is a pass catching back, he's never run for 1000 yards. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Had this been the blocking scheme all season he would have hit 1k for sure. 

[FLFan]

4 hours ago, ganesh said:

and this year is weird....there are only 7. 1000 yard RBs and some of them barely made it past the 1000 mark.

 

Player Yards/TD

Taylor. 1811/18

Chubb 1259/8

Mixon.  1205/13

Harris.  1200/7

Cook.   1159/6

Gibson 1037/7

Eliott.   1002/10

 

Weird to not see familiar faces such as Barkley, Kamara,  Fournette, etc

What is interesting is that of that list, only 3 backs play for playoff teams, and The Steelers barely count.  Not such an important achievement anymore. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Why the bump? He got 800 and something. 

I bumped it cuz it was a year long prediction, and now the season is concluded.  So now it has an answer to it, right or wrong, still need to conclude it.  And I acknowledged it as wrong.  
 

Don’t just get to take victory laps when you’re right, only fair to bump it and acknowledge when wrong too.  You make a season long prediction, you own it, right or wrong.  
But even though it was short on the yardage total, the substance and rest of my OP ended up being pretty spot on, just came short on the yards because it took Daboll 13 weeks to figure out for himself what i said in week 1.
 

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I bumped it cuz it was a year long prediction, and now the season is concluded.  So now it has an answer to it, right or wrong, still need to conclude it.  And I acknowledged it as wrong.  
 

Don’t just get to take victory laps when you’re right, only fair to bump it and acknowledge when wrong too.  
 

But even though it was short on the yardage total, the substance and rest of my OP ended up being pretty spot on, just came short on the yards because it took Daboll 13 weeks to figure out for himself what i said in week 1.
 

 

 

Haha fair enough Alpha. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Haha fair enough Alpha. 

Haha cheers 🥂 

 

Also, Devin deserves the recognition too.  He’s been what I said he could be if they just trusted him as the feature.  His last 4 games projected over a full season would be 19 carries a game, almost 1400 yards rushing, and 21 TDs.  
 

He played a significant role in our 4 game win streak to clinch the division, especially when our pass game was struggling at times.  

[BillMafia716ix]

Devin would of definitely cracked 1K if he hadn’t been handicapped by Daboll all this time.

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

And an extra game to try to get there, too.

 

 

When he made the claim, the schedule was set.  So no.  There wasn’t an extra game

[ganesh]

2 minutes ago, BillMafia716ix said:

Devin would of definitely cracked 1K if he hadn’t been handicapped by Daboll all this time.

To be fair,  in the early part of the season both Singletary and Moss just simply ran into a wall.  We were averaging 2 yards per carry with zero yards after contact....Literally !

[DCofNC]

5 hours ago, ganesh said:

and this year is weird....there are only 7. 1000 yard RBs and some of them barely made it past the 1000 mark.

 

Player Yards/TD

Taylor. 1811/18

Chubb 1259/8

Mixon.  1205/13

Harris.  1200/7

Cook.   1159/6

Gibson 1037/7

Eliott.   1002/10

 

Weird to not see familiar faces such as Barkley, Kamara,  Fournette, etc.

Interesting stat for sure.  The obvious big factor is the rules make it so favorable to pass you have to.  

 

The other major note is the majority or good running teams are going to a RB by committee.  Elliot barely broke 1k with the extra game, that’s mostly because Pollard took a lot of carries, from such a high paid back it’s nuts.  
 

Also, I can’t recall a year ever before there have been so many injuries to RBs.  Henry would have had close to 2k, McCaffrey, all of Baltimore got hurt, most of the guys we are familiar with being on the list missed a bunch of games. 

[Mynamemike]

3 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

870 yards for Motor

 

763 yards for Josh

That’s crazy, I hope people fully appreciate Josh and his ability.  It seems like he still has room to get better too.  Just bananas with his stat lines the last two years

[FlaFitz1]

4 hours ago, ganesh said:

To be fair,  in the early part of the season both Singletary and Moss just simply ran into a wall.  We were averaging 2 yards per carry with zero yards after contact....Literally !

 Literally no.

 

Over the first 8 games for some unknown reason gave more snaps and carries to Moss.

 

Over those 8 games Singletary had only 73 carries!!!  Still he had 355 yards which is 4.86 per carry.

 

Daboll screwed up all season when it came to the back until the last few weeks when he FINALLY let the more productive back carry the rock and be featured!!

 

I went over this before and here it is again - of all backs that had at least 150 carries on the season Singletary's 4.6 per was 6th best!!

 

When you look at the top 10 in rushing yards from scrimmage 4 averaged more yards per carry then Motor.

 

The 10 averaged 253 carries on the season.  Motor had only 188.   That's 65 fewer!!  If he had just the average of the top 10 he would have had 1164 rushing yards which would have been 5th in the league.   He's 188 carries is only 11 a game over the course of the season.  253 would have meant almost 15 per game (he averaged 19 carries the last 4 games) over the season.  4 more carries a game isn't a lot - especially when Moss wasn't as productive.

 

Daboll screwed up most of the season - thankfully he figured it out when it mattered most!!!

 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by FlaFitz1

[Maine-iac]

First 4 games Motor was on pace for 1,000 yards.  Got away from him in the KC game.  Didn't give him more than 7 carries in 7 out of the next 9 games.  We lost 5 of those 9 games and only 1 of the 5 loses did he get more than 7 carries (the tornado vs NE).  I am not going to guarantee Motor is going to run for 1,000 yards or score some mount of TD's but I will say he's the best back we have on this team right now and he should be getting enough carries to keep the defense honest.  Some games we might be playing a great defense that might bottle him up but between his ability to pop off a 20 yard run once or twice a game and the fact that you still have to run enough to keep defenses honest I would say he should be getting at least 10 to 15 carries a game.

[Mat68]

Singletary being the lead back has improved the offense.  I think he has a big playoffs.  Having Moss healthy and fresh legs will help as well.  

[foreboding]

Well, to be fair to the OP he would definitely have cracked 1000 yds if it was a 19 game season....so, pretty close.