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Joe Buscaglia's Mock Offseason


DCOrange

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https://theathletic.com/2441292/2021/03/11/bills-mock-offseason-2021-predicting-free-agent-signings-cuts-and-draft-picks/

As always with The Athletic, it's behind a paywall, but I'll list the moves here. This is what Joe B is guessing the Bills will ultimately do this offseason.

 

Cuts:

  • WR John Brown
  • IDL Quinton Jefferson
  • Edge Mario Addison
  • TE Lee Smith

Restructures:

  • OL Mitch Morse
  • LB AJ Klein

Re-Signings:

  • OL Ike Boettger - 1/$1.5M
  • OL Jon Feliciano - 3/$21M
  • QB Matt Barkley - 1/$2M
  • CB Levi Wallace - 1/$1.2M
  • S Dean Marlowe - 1/$1.5M

Leaving via Free Agency:

  • LB Matt Milano - a different article from The Athletic predicts he'll end up in Washington
  • OT Darryl Williams
  • WR Isaiah McKenzie
  • KR Andre Roberts
  • P Corey Bojorquez

Trades:

  • 2022 5th round pick for TE Zach Ertz
  • #30 pick for #40, #115, #236
  • #93 and #212 picks for #78

Signings:

  • Edge Carl Lawson - 4/$36M
  • P Michael Palardy - 1/$0.9M
  • With these signings and the people we let go, we are projected to receive a 4th round comp pick and potentially a 6th or 7th.

Draft:

  • #40: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State
  • #61: WR Rondale Moore, Purdue
  • #78: LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina
  • #115: CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina
  • #162: IOL Robert Jones, Middle Tennessee State
  • #178: IDL Bobby Brown III, Texas A&M
  • #235: TE Shaun Beyer, Iowa
  • #236: P James Smith, Cincinnati

 

Edited by DCOrange
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6 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Klein isn’t re structuring. He has all the leverage in the contract .

Joe B said the way the contract is structured would likely allow Buffalo to do this without needing his permission at all. It would just convert some of his salary into a signing bonus to save ~1.5 mil in cap space.

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

My question is on the OT with our first pick. Is he slated at OT or moving to OG? I’m guessing what’s missing from this offseason roadmap is who’ll be gone via free agency? Milano? Williams? 

Joe B expects Radunz to compete with Ryan Bates for the starting RT spot. It includes who leaves via free agency in the article. I can add that into the OP.

Edited by DCOrange
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3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

My question is on the OT with our first pick. Is he slated at OT or moving to OG? I’m guessing what’s missing from this offseason roadmap is who’ll be gone via free agency? Milano? Williams? 

 

If they arent in the Restructures or Re-signings groups, safe to assume they walk in FA.

 

Based on getting Ford back, and re-signing Boet and Feliciano, I'd guess Radunz would be an OT. Unless they plan to kick Ford back out to OT

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15 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Joe B said the way the contract is structured would likely allow Buffalo to do this without needing his permission at all. It would just convert some of his salary into a signing bonus to save ~1.5 mil in cap space.

 

Ahh gotcha. Thanks for the explanation 

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1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

https://theathletic.com/2441292/2021/03/11/bills-mock-offseason-2021-predicting-free-agent-signings-cuts-and-draft-picks/

As always with The Athletic, it's behind a paywall, but I'll list the moves here. This is what Joe B is guessing the Bills will ultimately do this offseason.

 

Cuts:

  • WR John Brown
  • IDL Quinton Jefferson
  • Edge Mario Addison
  • TE Lee Smith

Restructures:

  • OL Mitch Morse
  • LB AJ Klein

Re-Signings:

  • OL Ike Boettger - 1/$1.5M
  • OL Jon Feliciano - 3/$21M
  • QB Matt Barkley - 1/$2M
  • CB Levi Wallace - 1/$1.2M
  • S Dean Marlowe - 1/$1.5M

Leaving via Free Agency:

  • LB Matt Milano - a different article from The Athletic predicts he'll end up in Washington
  • OT Darryl Williams
  • WR Isaiah McKenzie
  • KR Andre Roberts
  • P Corey Bojorquez

Trades:

  • 2022 5th round pick for TE Zach Ertz
  • #30 pick for #40, #115, #236
  • #93 and #212 picks for #78

Signings:

  • Edge Carl Lawson - 4/$36M
  • P Michael Palardy - 1/$0.9M
  • With these signings and the people we let go, we are projected to receive a 4th round comp pick and potentially a 6th or 7th.

Draft:

  • #40: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State
  • #61: WR Rondale Moore, Purdue
  • #78: LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina
  • #115: CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina
  • #162: IOL Robert Jones, Middle Tennessee State
  • #178: IDL Bobby Brown III, Texas A&M
  • #235: TE Shaun Beyer, Iowa
  • #236: P James Smith, Cincinnati

 

I like Spencer Brown (Northern Iowa) more than Radunz. He can be had later in Rd 2. Gotta get an impact player with 1st pick

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Not sure where he's getting Wallace and Boettger for those amounts.  An RFA tender for original round alone is $2.133M.  And I don't see Barkley being back or Feliciano getting more than $4M/year.

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Just now, MiltonWaddams said:

Roberts or McKittrick....gotta keep one. In this scenario, who does he foresee returning kicks? Micah Hyde is not going to be back there and at such a risk.

 

Who is the better punt returner?   Returning kicks is often a losing proposition.

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1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Who is the better punt returner?   Returning kicks is often a losing proposition.

If I was solely to base my judgement upon the Miami game, I think we both know who would win that debate. However, as a body of work, Roberts is the superior option.

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This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The Bills clearly have a preference for FA/vet WRs (Brown, Diggs, Beasley), and in this scenario they're not adding any experienced pieces to the unit that actually wins them games (the offense). In fact, they're subtracting. I'm increasingly interested in adding someone like Curtis Samuel, who strikes me as a perfect fit for this offense. 

Edited by dave mcbride
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32 minutes ago, Doc said:

Not sure where he's getting Wallace and Boettger for those amounts.  An RFA tender for original round alone is $2.133M.  And I don't see Barkley being back or Feliciano getting more than $4M/year.

With Wallace and Boettger, he is assuming the Bills do not tender them due to cost but will be able to bring them back as UFAs cheaper.  I do not buy this, for either player.  He also states that while the Bills may want someone better than Barkley, this is not the year to pay that position.  

 

Overall, I would be disappointed if this analysis were even close.

Edited by FLFan
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7 minutes ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Roberts or McKittrick....gotta keep one. In this scenario, who does he foresee returning kicks? Micah Hyde is not going to be back there and at such a risk.

 

I can see McK being re-signed.  Or drafting a rookie speedster to do it.  Can't really have a RS this year.

 

Just now, FLFan said:

With Wallace and Boettger, he is assuming the Bills do not tender them due to cost but will be able to bring them back as UFAs cheaper.  I do not buy this, for either player.  He also states that hole the Bills may want som on b term than Barkley, this is not the year to pay that position.  

 

Yeah, that's not even close to reality.

Edited by Doc
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2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

https://theathletic.com/2441292/2021/03/11/bills-mock-offseason-2021-predicting-free-agent-signings-cuts-and-draft-picks/

As always with The Athletic, it's behind a paywall, but I'll list the moves here. This is what Joe B is guessing the Bills will ultimately do this offseason.

 

Cuts:

  • WR John Brown
  • IDL Quinton Jefferson
  • Edge Mario Addison
  • TE Lee Smith

Restructures:

  • OL Mitch Morse
  • LB AJ Klein

Re-Signings:

  • OL Ike Boettger - 1/$1.5M
  • OL Jon Feliciano - 3/$21M
  • QB Matt Barkley - 1/$2M
  • CB Levi Wallace - 1/$1.2M
  • S Dean Marlowe - 1/$1.5M

Leaving via Free Agency:

  • LB Matt Milano - a different article from The Athletic predicts he'll end up in Washington
  • OT Darryl Williams
  • WR Isaiah McKenzie
  • KR Andre Roberts
  • P Corey Bojorquez

Trades:

  • 2022 5th round pick for TE Zach Ertz
  • #30 pick for #40, #115, #236
  • #93 and #212 picks for #78

Signings:

  • Edge Carl Lawson - 4/$36M
  • P Michael Palardy - 1/$0.9M
  • With these signings and the people we let go, we are projected to receive a 4th round comp pick and potentially a 6th or 7th.

Draft:

  • #40: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State
  • #61: WR Rondale Moore, Purdue
  • #78: LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina
  • #115: CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina
  • #162: IOL Robert Jones, Middle Tennessee State
  • #178: IDL Bobby Brown III, Texas A&M
  • #235: TE Shaun Beyer, Iowa
  • #236: P James Smith, Cincinnati

 

This is awful

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6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The Bills clearly have a preference for FA/vet WRs (Brown, Diggs, Beasley), and in this scenario they're not adding any experienced pieces to the unit that actually wins them games (the offense). In fact, they're subtracting. I'm increasingly interested in adding someone like Curtis Samuel, who strikes me as a perfect fit for this offense. 

From a mid to longer term perspective leaving the opportunity for draftees to fill and grow is the way to go.  Allowing Davis to move into the 3rd role goes with that.  Not overrecruiting the RBs employs the same philosophy.

 

Also in his scenario the Bills would be adding Ertz - that's a veteran option.

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I don’t think you should allow one of the best punters in the game to walk out the door, especially one who can effectively kick in what is likely the worst kicking venue in the NFL. That position is just too important to take a step back on.

 

Edited by Inigo Montoya
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19 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

From a mid to longer term perspective leaving the opportunity for draftees to fill and grow is the way to go.  Allowing Davis to move into the 3rd role goes with that.  Not overrecruiting the RBs employs the same philosophy.

 

Also in his scenario the Bills would be adding Ertz - that's a veteran option.

Ertz seems to have entered the injury phase of his career, and he doesn't increase team speed. 

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Not that it is a huge deal, but I don't get letting Bojo walk. In the grand scheme of things, punters and kickers are fairly cheap. They don't provide a huge amount of savings by letting them walk. He was an asset last year, just keep the kid around for a couple 100k more. 

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First, thanks for posting this.

 

As for his mock offseason: it’s clearly well thought out and addressed most major need areas.

 

The two things it’s lacking, in my opinion, is substantial improvement to the interior offensive line, and a Swiss Army knife returner/gadget guy, which they’d need if they let McKenzie and Roberts go.
 

That said, you can’t address everything in one (cap strapped) offseason, and I like adding real help at EDGE and TE and getting younger at WR, CB, and LB.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Logic said:

First, thanks for posting this.

 

As for his mock offseason: it’s clearly well thought out and addressed most major need areas.

 

The two things it’s lacking, in my opinion, is substantial improvement to the interior offensive line, and a Swiss Army knife returner/gadget guy, which they’d need if they let McKenzie and Roberts go.
 

That said, you can’t address everything in one (cap strapped) offseason, and I like adding real help at EDGE and TE and getting younger at WR, CB, and LB.

 

 

I think Rondale Moore can provide the returning/gadget stuff if he pans out well/stays healthy.

 

We could have taken Kadarius Toney (or the Notre Dame OT for that matter) at #30 but as mentioned, Joe thought we'd trade down in that scenario instead.

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I might be in the minority but Rondale Moore doesn't move the needle for me.  As a matter of philosophy I think its best to stay away from 175 lb athletes in the NFL.  

I just don't see it with him. Tavon Austin, was a more electric athlete, IMO & I jisy dont think players that size translate in the pros

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2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The Bills clearly have a preference for FA/vet WRs (Brown, Diggs, Beasley), and in this scenario they're not adding any experienced pieces to the unit that actually wins them games (the offense). In fact, they're subtracting. I'm increasingly interested in adding someone like Curtis Samuel, who strikes me as a perfect fit for this offense. 

They need make the offense better. I like a Brown, Roberts and McKenzie swap for Samuel a lot. Give me him and an Edge in FA.

 

Sal C and Jeremey from WGR seem to think we love Bates, so I could see us playing him at RT. 

 

Edit: this is the same reasoning why I like Reddick, plays coverage LB and lines up to pass rush in those situations. You pay more per year for one player, but he fills 2 spots for the same cost of 2 average meh type players. 

Edited by Reed83HOF
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1 hour ago, Mango said:

Not that it is a huge deal, but I don't get letting Bojo walk. In the grand scheme of things, punters and kickers are fairly cheap. They don't provide a huge amount of savings by letting them walk. He was an asset last year, just keep the kid around for a couple 100k more. 

 

Giving Bojo just the minimum RFA tender of $2.133M puts him at 12th in the NFL.  Meanwhile they could sign a guy like Palardy for $750K.

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4 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I like Spencer Brown (Northern Iowa) more than Radunz. He can be had later in Rd 2. Gotta get an impact player with 1st pick

 

Agree on Spencer Brown. I also think Jaylen Mayfield is a solid option at RT.

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7 hours ago, Bleedbuffaloblue said:

Don’t see them going WR with their second pick.

 

It depends who is on the board. In Buscaglia's mock, he has them taking Rondale Moore in the 2nd Round. He's absolutely worth consideration there and would add an element to the WR corps that is currently missing, especially with Brown gone.

 

5 hours ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Roberts or McKittrick....gotta keep one. In this scenario, who does he foresee returning kicks? Micah Hyde is not going to be back there and at such a risk.

 

If you're going by his mock, Moore has the capability to be the returner and a good one at that. His biggest question mark is his durability. He's small but, if he stays healthy, he's an electric 'do all' weapon that would give Daboll a lot of flexibility. He can be the 'gadget guy'. 

Edited by ExWNYer
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