Bills Offense versus Elite Defenses

[hondo in seattle]

A lot of people expect the Ravens to win on Saturday.  The narrative goes something like this:  The Ravens will run all over the Bills.  And the Bills offense will be slowed by the excellent Ravens D.

 

I'm not so sure.   I'm not underestimating the Ravens - they're a great football team.  But I do think some folks are underestimating the Bills.  

 

Here are the top defenses (yards allowed) in the NFL:

 

1.  LA Rams

2.  Washington

3.  Steelers

4.  NO

5.  SF

 

We've played three of the top five and beat all of them.   We averaged 386 yards and 31.7 points against these premier defensive squads.  Why would we expect the Ravens D to do any better?  The Bills are a passing team and - statistically speaking - the Raven's pass D (ranked #6) isn't as good as the pass defenses in LA, Pittsburg or San Fran.   We've obliterated defenses better than the one in Baltimore.  

So if we play to our norm against top tier defenses and hang 32 points on the Ravens, can their Greg Roman rushing attack put up 33?   

 

Maybe.   They did average 29 points per game during the regular season.  They only need to find 4 more - in the playoffs... in Buffalo... in the cold... against a fired up team. 

 

I'm just not counting on it.   

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Punching Bag]

Part of reason is because many of our WRs are injured.

[KingBoots8]

I hope this is the pregame speech Josh has in mind

[dlonce]

I agree. The Ravens are no where near an elite defense.

If they blitz there is no way their DBs can match up one on one with our receivers. If they don’t then Allen will pick them apart.

Pick your poison.

 

They can run if they want and put up 3s while we put up 7s. I’ll take that all day long.

 

The Bills have beaten the best league wide defenses.

At home, in less then perfect weather conditions, will give the offense an advantage.

 

Daboll needs to get back to what we did best during the last quarter of the season. This isn’t a take what they give you situation, it’s a take what you want situation. Stop with the JA QB draws. We did that early in the season.

 

If the game plan is playing scared then the Bills will likely lose.

[Frat-Train]

Only one reason they don’t perform...   Divisional round jitters.  Other than that...

 

Let’s go kill some birds, I’m psyched!!!

[Don Otreply]

We are so gonna kick their azsez!

 

Go Bills!!!

[dlonce]

17 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Part of reason is because many of our WRs are injured.

 

The heads are always looking for ways to qualify a pick.

Florio earlier said he’s picking the Ravens because of how the Bills played against the Colts. He must have expected a blow out. Stephen A Smith is picking the Bills because of inclement weather. The excuses are arriving.

So glad the games played on the field.

 

Everyone is injured at this point. Diggs looked pretty good last week being “injured” and it would be next man up if Beasley is too injured to be effective.

Should be a good game.

Edited January 15, 2021 by dlonce

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

A lot of people expect the Ravens to win on Saturday.  The narrative goes something like this:  The Ravens will run all over the Bills.  And the Bills offense will be slowed by the excellent Ravens D.

 

I'm not so sure.   I'm not underestimating the Ravens - they're a great football team.  But I do think some folks are underestimating the Bills.  

 

Here are the top defenses (yards allowed) in the NFL:

 

1.  LA Rams

2.  Washington

3.  Steelers

4.  NO

5.  SF

 

We've played three of the top five and beat all of them.   We averaged 386 yards and 31.7 points against these premier defensive squads.  Why would we expect the Ravens D to do any better?  The Bills are a passing team and - statistically speaking - the Raven's pass D (ranked #6) isn't as good as the pass defenses in LA, Pittsburg or San Fran.   We've obliterated defenses better than the one in Baltimore.  

So if we play to our norm against top tier defenses and hang 32 points on the Ravens, can their Greg Roman rushing attack put up 33?   

 

Maybe.   They did average 29 points per game during the regular season.  They only need to find 4 more - in the playoffs... in Buffalo... in the cold... against a fired up team. 

 

I'm just not counting on it.   

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m not saying I disagree with you, but the Steelers and Niners were both short handed.  The Steelers were missing their best corner in Haden.  While the Steelers D was really good, they fell off some when they lost Bush and fell off a cliff when they lost Dupree, giving up an average of 28+ a game over the last 6 games.  Not to mention, they played one of the easiest schedules.  

The niners were missing their slot corner K’Waun Williams and Emmanuel Mosley and decided they were just going to sit back and let Josh stand in the pocket all game and dice them up. They didn’t bring any pressure all game.  It was a terrible game plan by Saleh imo.
 

The Rams, we balled out!  Credit to our O

 

that said....I think our O can take them to the woodshed if they play a fair share of man.  If they play mostly zone and their blitz can get home, it could be a tough one. The Ravens cornerbacks are much better than most cB units. That’s the main reason why people think they match up well imo

[GunnerBill]

The Ravens have a better secondary than those other 3 teams in fairness (LA is close) but I am not worried about the Bills moving the ball and scoring and I agree if we get to 30 I am not sure Baltimore can keep up.

[hondo in seattle]

14 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Part of reason is because many of our WRs are injured.

 

That's the big concern.  I wonder how badly hurt Diggs, Beasley and Smoke really are.   We can't expect the info coming from the team to be perfectly accurate.  

 

All are on the mend - hopefully nearing 100%.  

[Mc1320]

The Browns torched this defense on Monday night when Lamar had the runs both on and off the field, putting up almost 500 yards. Ravens D stats are also inflated because they played the NFC East offenses this year.

 

Jimmy Smith and whoever their 4th DB ends up being should be in for a long night.  Martindale gets credit for blitzing as much as he does, but he kept blitzing Mahomes and Mahomes kept torching them all night long.

[hondo in seattle]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m not saying I disagree with you, but the Steelers and Niners were both short handed.  The Steelers were missing their best corner in Haden.  While the Steelers D was really good, they fell off some when they lost Bush and fell off a cliff when they lost Dupree, giving up an average of 28+ a game over the last 6 games.  Not to mention, they played one of the easiest schedules.  

The niners were missing their slot corner K’Waun Williams and Emmanuel Mosley and decided they were just going to sit back and let Josh stand in the pocket all game and dice them up. They didn’t bring any pressure all game.  It was a terrible game plan by Saleh imo.
 

The Rams, we balled out!  Credit to our O

 

that said....I think our O can take them to the woodshed if they play a fair share of man.  If they play mostly zone and their blitz can get home, it could be a tough one. The Ravens cornerbacks are much better than most cB units. That’s the main reason why people think they match up well imo

 

 

We know the Ravens will blitz.  But you ask the key question: Will it get home? 

 

The Bills have mostly, but not consistently, handled the blitz well this year.  

 

Beside the obvious point of getting blocking assignments right, I think Josh will have to make good pre-snap reads.  If he's scanning, scanning, scanning  while being blitzed, very bad things may happen.  

 

I hope Daboll's done a great job of studying, understanding, and predicting the Ravens scheme.  If so - and if the wideouts are reasonably healthy - we can put up a lot of points despite the talent of the D.

 

How many times this year have we seen good pressure on Josh and good coverage in the secondary and yet the Bills still found the endzone?   Sometimes being good just isn't good enough against this excellent Bills passing attack.  When the Bills offense is clicking, it's hard to stop.    

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The Ravens have a better secondary than those other 3 teams in fairness (LA is close) but I am not worried about the Bills moving the ball and scoring and I agree if we get to 30 I am not sure Baltimore can keep up.

I really feel like Peters is going to bite on a fake and give up a huge completion....like a 40-50 yard TD.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

I look it like this, if the bills offense comes out and does what they have done all year the media and fans around the country will be in awe

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I really feel like Peters is going to bite on a fake and give up a huge completion....like a 40-50 yard TD.

That and a pass interference call or 2 early.

 

I can't wait to see those corner backs upset

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

We know the Ravens will blitz.  But you ask the key question: Will it get home? 

 

The Bills have mostly, but not consistently, handled the blitz well this year.  

 

Beside the obvious point of getting blocking assignments right, I think Josh will have to make good pre-snap reads.  If he's scanning, scanning, scanning  while being blitzed, very bad things may happen.  

 

I hope Daboll's done a great job of studying, understanding, and predicting the Ravens scheme.  If so - and if the wideouts are reasonably healthy - we can put up a lot of points despite the talent of the D.

 

How many times this year have we seen good pressure on Josh and good coverage in the secondary and yet the Bills still found the endzone?   Sometimes being good just isn't good enough against this excellent Bills passing attack.  When the Bills offense is clicking, it's hard to stop.    

 

 

There is reason for concern against the Ravens - their corners will likely clutch/grab like KC does, and it seemed like our WRs had trouble with that early in the year (key: early in the year / we’re a very different team now)

 

That being said.. Indy got pressure with 4 and Allen extended, still making plays downfield.  If they blitz and don’t get home, Allen is going to make big play after big play, with his arm or legs, until they stop.  

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

We know the Ravens will blitz.  But you ask the key question: Will it get home? 

 

The Bills have mostly, but not consistently, handled the blitz well this year.  

 

Beside the obvious point of getting blocking assignments right, I think Josh will have to make good pre-snap reads.  If he's scanning, scanning, scanning  while being blitzed, very bad things may happen.  

 

I hope Daboll's done a great job of studying, understanding, and predicting the Ravens scheme.  If so - and if the wideouts are reasonably healthy - we can put up a lot of points despite the talent of the D.

 

How many times this year have we seen good pressure on Josh and good coverage in the secondary and yet the Bills still found the endzone?   Sometimes being good just isn't good enough against this excellent Bills passing attack.  When the Bills offense is clicking, it's hard to stop.    

 

 

Agree 💯 

 

that said, I am a bit worried about wind and weather conditions having an effect on passing, catching and possibly separation. I realize that the WRs “have an advantage” because they know what their route is, but they still depend on making sharp cuts on a dime in order to get open.  Josh drops back, throws to Cole, who slips and we have a pick 6, could be the difference in the game.   Really hoping that the weather doesn’t have an effect on the game

[Big Blitz]

48 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

A lot of people expect the Ravens to win on Saturday.  The narrative goes something like this:  The Ravens will run all over the Bills.  And the Bills offense will be slowed by the excellent Ravens D.

 

I'm not so sure.   I'm not underestimating the Ravens - they're a great football team.  But I do think some folks are underestimating the Bills.  

 

Here are the top defenses (yards allowed) in the NFL:

 

1.  LA Rams

2.  Washington

3.  Steelers

4.  NO

5.  SF

 

We've played three of the top five and beat all of them.   We averaged 386 yards and 31.7 points against these premier defensive squads.  Why would we expect the Ravens D to do any better?  The Bills are a passing team and - statistically speaking - the Raven's pass D (ranked #6) isn't as good as the pass defenses in LA, Pittsburg or San Fran.   We've obliterated defenses better than the one in Baltimore.  

So if we play to our norm against top tier defenses and hang 32 points on the Ravens, can their Greg Roman rushing attack put up 33?   

 

Maybe.   They did average 29 points per game during the regular season.  They only need to find 4 more - in the playoffs... in Buffalo... in the cold... against a fired up team. 

 

I'm just not counting on it.   

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'd add Miami twice to this list.  

 

And New England.  

 

Their pass defenses are better then 2 of those 3.  

 

 

 

All this being said the Ravens D is better then all those teams.  

 

It's fully healthy now and had time to adjust to some new guys.  

 

I feel like downplaying this is the same as not taking the Chiefs O as seriously because they "struggled" down the stretch.  

Edited January 15, 2021 by Big Blitz

[HOUSE]

I believe the way to beat the Ravens is mistake free football.   But, this could be a mistake on my part

[Chicken Boo]

The stats are nice, but you can throw ALL OF IT out the window!

 

The playoffs are a different animal.

[Rick 'r Mortis]

There are no elite defenses in today's NFL.

[gjv001]

Last time I checked Vegas had the Bills favored by 21/2. So somebody thinks we're going to win. However, many, if not most, football analysts will tell you that a team with a solid defense and strong running attack is more apt to win against a passing team in winter weather. Hopefully, the weather Saturday night isn't too bad and the Vegas odds makers were right.

[White Linen]

They lost twice to the Steelers and once to the Patriots, Chiefs and Titans.  Their only quality wins are the Browns twice and Colts.

 

IMO, the Bengals twice, Texans, Washington, Giants, Eagles, Jags and Cowboys are low quality wins.  

 

We are the much better team with much tougher wins.  

 

We are not an easy match up for them and they will have a tough time handling our offense.  

[Jpsredemption]

Are they elite or good? I think the word elite gets thrown around way too much. 

[Magox]

There is little doubt that the Bills can thrash their defense, the question is will they?  If we put up 30+ points I don't see the Ravens keeping up with us.  I could be wrong, Baltimore certainly can put up those sort of points but I don't see it.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Limeaid said:

Part of reason is because many of our WRs are injured.

 

Uhh...didn't affect Diggs and Beasley said his knee is feeling a lot better than last week.

 

Have a feeling they will be fine.

[Steptide]

I just hope daboll goes balls to the wall. Last week seemed to be a little less aggressive or scaled back. I could be totally wrong about that though. Just win this friggen game please 

[Scott7975]

Blitz away https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/advanced.htm

[Ray Stonada]

Feels like everyone nationally is picking the Ravens. I like it.

 

They’re gonna have to learn the hard way...

 

We are gonna roll. I can feel it in the air. They can not stop DIGGS, and Allen is shredding everyone elite defenses included.

 

We have no fear of this defense or any defense. We will elevate and they can't match it.

[Monty98]

I think we'll see a lot of delayed blitzes tomorrow. I also think it will be a lot of zone blitzing, if they run man blitzes it lets Allen roll to his right and throw or run and we all know how effective he is while doing that. Zone blitz at least keeps all eyes on Allen underneath and "limits" his ability to run. We'll probably also see a spy in the form of Patrick Queen or maybe someone like Jimmy Smith. Smith is a big bodied DB who struggles in coverage now as he's gotten older and some injuries, but he still can move and if he's spying Allen it should slow his ability to get away from the pocket (in theory).

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, Steptide said:

I just hope daboll goes balls to the wall. Last week seemed to be a little less aggressive or scaled back. I could be totally wrong about that though. Just win this friggen game please 

i 100% believe, this game, more than any this season, will be won or lost in the film room. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Steptide]

Just now, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

i 100% believe this game more than any this season will be won or lost in the film room. 

I'm not exactly sure what that means... 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Just now, Steptide said:

I'm not exactly sure what that means... 

which means it can’t be wrong 😉 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, dlonce said:

I agree. The Ravens are no where near an elite defense.

If they blitz there is no way their DBs can match up one on one with our receivers. If they don’t then Allen will pick them apart.

Pick your poison.

 

They can run if they want and put up 3s while we put up 7s. I’ll take that all day long.

 

The Bills have beaten the best league wide defenses.

At home, in less then perfect weather conditions, will give the offense an advantage.

 

Daboll needs to get back to what we did best during the last quarter of the season. This isn’t a take what they give you situation, it’s a take what you want situation. Stop with the JA QB draws. We did that early in the season.

 

If the game plan is playing scared then the Bills will likely lose.

Unless the refs let them hold all game like they often do...that worries me a bit

9 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Feels like everyone nationally is picking the Ravens. I like it.

 

They’re gonna have to learn the hard way...

 

We are gonna roll. I can feel it in the air. They can not stop DIGGS, and Allen is shredding everyone elite defenses included.

 

We have no fear of this defense or any defense. We will elevate and they can't match it.

You can check it out on nflpickwatch...most are picking the bills actually its almost 60/40 bills 

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

I'd add Miami twice to this list.  

 

And New England.  

 

Their pass defenses are better then 2 of those 3.  

 

 

 

All this being said the Ravens D is better then all those teams.  

 

It's fully healthy now and had time to adjust to some new guys.  

 

I feel like downplaying this is the same as not taking the Chiefs O as seriously because they "struggled" down the stretch.  

 

I personally don't discount this game.  I think it will be a hard-fought battle that can go either way.

 

I just don't like how some people build up the Ravens and insinuate they're better than the Bills.  The Bills have a better W-L record against a tougher schedule.  The Bills offense has performed well against good defenses.  And our D, while still suspect against the run, has played significantly better during the second half of the year than it did in the first.  We're not chopped liver.

 

NFL.com power ranking have us at #2 and the Ravens at #4.  This game is a contest of Titans - the mythic kind, not the Tennessee type.  

 

I'm hoping for a Bills blowout.  I'm guessing we'll win in nail-biter: 31-30 or something like that.  And I wouldn't be shocked at a less favorable outcome - given the strength of the Ravens squad - because on any given Sunday...

Edited January 15, 2021 by hondo in seattle

[colin]

imo, as long as our O gets the ball enough times to figure whatever they have to out, they are gonna put up points.  31 points scored would not be a big day for this O.  

 

This game is gonna come down to avoiding the back breaking mistake, and to our D.  our D has to play well enough to limit balitmore, i think early in particular.  the D was nicely solid in the first 3 quarters vs the colts, and was decent on the final game winning drive.  those two particular drives in the 4th getting just trucked for long TDs flipped the day from a solid one to a trashy one.  the athletic did a good breakdown, some bad play, some bad calls, and indy noticing we abandoned our run focused D.  i don't think we do that at all vs baltimore, so i think we can tie or win the rock paper scissors game, so it's up to the D to ball out.

[hondo in seattle]

46 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Blitz away https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/advanced.htm

 

Great chart!  

 

The Ravens blitzed 41% of the time during the regular season- most in the NFL.  That works against some teams, but not much against the Bills.

 

Martindale has said they're going to bring the heat against the Bills regardless.  Speaking of Allen, Wink said: "He knows that there's going to be pressure, that's for sure. That's who we are. That's what we've done."  

 

People say this game is a poor matchup for us because on D, we're poor against the run while they're strong running the ball.  On O, we're good at passing but they're good at stopping the pass.

 

But this chart helps show a different perspective.  The Raven biggest defensive weapon is their blitz.  They do it often and do it well.  But the Bills are mostly impervious to the blitz.  Their best defensive weapon shouldn't effect us much.  The Ravens would prefer to face a QB with happy feet and poor poise.  That's not Allen.  Bad matchup for them.

Edited January 15, 2021 by hondo in seattle

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I am a broken record.  But its all about turnovers and pass rush. Look what hampered the Bills last eeek, no turnovers and bad field position. 

Want to beat a good defens?. Get a short field to work with. Make Jackson cough it up a couple times and this one could be an easy win. 

If the Bills have to slog it down the field 80+ yards each drive it will be harder. Not impossible. Just harder.

[ndirish1978]

I expect Gabe Davis to have a good day, Bease too. 

[Mat68]

The Baltimore style of defense is not differant than Miami or Ne.  Blitz and strong corner play.  Miami has a very similar defense.  I would argue that Miami has better corners. Buffalo rag dolled them.  Same thing.  Only way the game is close is close is heavy snow.  I think Allen makes more plays still.

[Beast]

5 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’m not saying I disagree with you, but the Steelers and Niners were both short handed.  The Steelers were missing their best corner in Haden.  While the Steelers D was really good, they fell off some when they lost Bush and fell off a cliff when they lost Dupree, giving up an average of 28+ a game over the last 6 games.  Not to mention, they played one of the easiest schedules.  

The niners were missing their slot corner K’Waun Williams and Emmanuel Mosley and decided they were just going to sit back and let Josh stand in the pocket all game and dice them up. They didn’t bring any pressure all game.  It was a terrible game plan by Saleh imo.
 

The Rams, we balled out!  Credit to our O

 

that said....I think our O can take them to the woodshed if they play a fair share of man.  If they play mostly zone and their blitz can get home, it could be a tough one. The Ravens cornerbacks are much better than most cB units. That’s the main reason why epeople think they match up well imo

 

And the Bills were missing John Brown .