Why Last Year's Defensive Record Might Be Deceiving

[Last Guy on the Bench]

Like everyone, I'm feeling ill at ease about the defensive performance so far. (Luckily we have the Stallion-Legend-Cantaloupe-Farmer in our corner.)

 

Looking back at last year, we faced some seriously weak QBs. I'm wondering how good our defense actually ever was? Our 10 wins were against:

 

Fitz (2 wins) - whose beard still averaged 300 yards a game against us

Mono-Darnold (who might not be that good even without Mono)

The about to be benched corpse of Eli

The about to be benched Marcus Mariotta

Aging journeyman Andy Dalton - who threw for 250 but did get picked twice, including the game-sealer by Tre

Rookie Dwayne Haskins

The about to be benched Brandon Allen (currently residing on the Bengals practice squad)

Rookie UFA Duck Hodges

Dak Prescott - the only genuinely upper echelon QB we beat - and he threw for 355 with 2 TDs and a pick

 

Not exactly a murderer's row. Three of those QBs were benched the week after they played us.

 

The six losses don't show much air defense either:

 

Lost twice to the Ghost of Tom Brady.

Lost to Mayfield, who isn't that good and still had a decent day with 238 yards 2 TDs and 0 picks.

Perhaps their best showing against a good QB was in the loss to the Ravens - that one gives me the most hope.

Lost to Wentz - who didn't have to do anything because they ran down our throats.

The second string lost to Darnold (barely)

 

This year we have have Goff, Cam 2.0, Wilson, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Murray, Garoppolo, Carr, Tannehill 2.0

 

Quite a difference. We survived Goff thanks to our now truly delightful offense. Hopefully the Defense will improve, but I'm feeling very skeptical, since they seem to struggle against good QBs, especially in the 2nd halves once those QBs are able to make adjustments to our carefully schemed out 1st halves.

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Last Guy on the Bench

[GunnerBill]

We played a lot of bad teams in 2019. That said our D was still pretty good against the good teams. We need to tighten up. I think so of it is upfront, some of it is Edmunds really needs to improve he has taken a step back so far and also yesterday some of it was on our DBs and not just the ones name Levi.

 

The one thing we can be confident of is McDermott and Frazier will figure this out. There is nothing in their past to suggest that it will be beyond them to fix.

[Royale with Cheese]

Good post.

 

However, I would like to offer a counterpoint.

 

Franchise QB’s get paid a ton of money because they are the biggest difference maker.

 

Take the 2019 Ravens.  Considered possibly the best defense in football.  Mahomes put up 374 and 3 TD’s....put up 33 points.

 

The Titans had an upper echelon defense.  Mahomes puts up 294 and 4 total TD’s....33 points.

 

More often than not, a great QB will beat a great defense.   
 

I’m down on the defense but but down on the team because we finally can win shoot outs because we have a QB who can win in the air.

 

I mean, the Rams have a good defense and we put up 35 on them.

[BigBuff423]

The Defense is for sure something that needs to improve for the whole game. In each of the first three games, including yesterday's, the Defense has been virtually lights out in the first half. Then, the second half happens and they become the Cardiac Kids while we all find ways to squeeze life out of the final moments of the game. And it's been a wonderful feeling to see Josh Allen come in and take control of the end of games with the Offense even though it shouldn't be that way to good leads in the second half of those games. As a fan, having actual confidence in the Offense is refreshing and invigorating feeling to have, despite the aggravation.

 

That said, as I was pondering this very thing last night and earlier this morning, I have to wonder what role the lack of Pre-Season plays for this Defense, maybe all Defenses? We heard last night that it's been a historic three weeks in the NFL regarding high scoring games and wild comebacks, and that means it's not just the Bills - it's Defenses on the whole in the NFL. As I thought about it more, we've talked about the Pre-Season and injuries and the impact conditioning has had on them, but we glossed over what kind of impact it has on a Defense in particular especially when the Bills are playing in three very warm, to absolutely tropical, game conditions. I think the loss of Star is bigger than some want to admit, as it pertains to the running game, I think a few of the newer pieces are still gaining the instinctive knowledge of the Defense so they don't have to think about it and just play, and I think the lack of Pre-Season - especially in the warmer games that require elite conditioning, has played a large role. 

 

I'm concerned at this point, but considering all of the above, I'm not panicking or ready to set the ships on fire to salvage the season - I'm at the point of let's see how October plays out for the Defense. Next game is Vegas indoors, then Titans but it will be second week in October - hopefully a bit cooler, and then KC at night on the 15th. Obviously the deeper we go the more playing time and the cooler the weather so I'm hoping by the time we get to KC at night, the Defense is in prime shape and all of it comes together. 

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

We played a lot of bad teams in 2019. That said our D was still pretty good against the good teams. We need to tighten up. I think so of it is upfront, some of it is Edmunds really needs to improve he has taken a step back so far and also yesterday some of it was on our DBs and not just the ones name Levi.

 

The one thing we can be confident of is McDermott and Frazier will figure this out. There is nothing in their past to suggest that it will be beyond them to fix.

We have gone through bad defensive stretches every season under McDermott and they do fix it.

[Mrbojanglezs]

Defense is down all over the league. It appears that the remote style meetings was more beneficial to the offense than the defense

[eball]

2 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Defense is down all over the league. It appears that the remote style meetings was more beneficial to the offense than the defense

 

Defense is physical by nature, and not going through a “normal” offseason of ramping up has obviously hurt these units.  Also, I read a report yesterday that officials were told at the start of the season to “let ‘em play” and the result has been significantly fewer offensive holding calls — like, by a huge margin.

 

I posted in the postgame thread that I have faith McD and Frazier will figure things out, but yesterday was definitely ugly.  The difference is we finally have a QB and offense that can make up for it!

[Dopey]

Yeah, we don't miss Star.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Good post.

 

However, I would like to offer a counterpoint.

 

Franchise QB’s get paid a ton of money because they are the biggest difference maker.

 

Take the 2019 Ravens.  Considered possibly the best defense in football.  Mahomes put up 374 and 3 TD’s....put up 33 points.

 

The Titans had an upper echelon defense.  Mahomes puts up 294 and 4 total TD’s....33 points.

 

More often than not, a great QB will beat a great defense.   
 

I’m down on the defense but but down on the team because we finally can win shoot outs because we have a QB who can win in the air.

 

I mean, the Rams have a good defense and we put up 35 on them.

Good post. I agree. I don't think that any of this means we have a terrible defense. Just maybe that we have a solid but not-that-great defense, so we are going to have to win games this year by scoring a lot of points (unlike last year when we could get away without doing so). If last year's offense faced this year's schedule of QBs, we might not win 7 games.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Last Guy on the Bench

[ProcessTruster]

D is not that important in the NFL anymore.  great offense is.   I'll trade in a great for a good defense to get a great offense in today's NFL everyday.   If you are not scoring 30+ most games , the rules have you going nowhere in today's NFL.   so I am good.  go Bills.  Davis and Diggs huge additions this year.  

[Casey D]

13 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

We have gone through bad defensive stretches every season under McDermott and they do fix it.

Totally agree.  If you look at the Board comments after the Philly game last year, they read much like current comments on the defense.  Front is too small, big lines will run it down our throat, etc.  But they fixed it last year.  I'm pretty sure they will fix it again.  In the meantime instead of getting blown out when the defense is down, the offense is picking the team up and getting the win.  I think that is the step the team is taking from being a good team in 2019 to being really good in 2020.

[Brennan Huff]

The run D was awful the first half of last year as well. But we had a shutdown corner last year. Tre White has not looked like the same player. I think they miss Alexander big time. His leadership anyways. He was a big influence in the locker room and on the field

[mannc]

We’ve jumped out to big leads in all three games...Maybe the problem is with the style of prevent defense we’re playing.  Also, the offense is scoring much faster this year, resulting in more possessions for the other team.  Things to think about...

[Charles Romes]

I could care less if we get shredded each and every week this season. For the first time in more than two decades we have a real quarterback. 

[Yobogoya!]

8 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

D is not that important in the NFL anymore.  great offense is.   I'll trade in a great for a good defense to get a great offense in today's NFL everyday.   If you are not scoring 30+ most games , the rules have you going nowhere in today's NFL.   so I am good.  go Bills.  Davis and Diggs huge additions this year.  

 

Exactly, we're finally winning games the way the rest of the great NFL teams have for over a decade now.

 

What this defense IS lacking however is a takeover the game kind of monster. We've got a lot of good/ above-average players, and Tre is an elite corner in zone, but if you look at the top defenses this year they almost all have at least one if not two huge impact players on their front 7.

 

It was the hope that either Oliver for Edmunds (or both) would become that type of player for us, but so far that has yet to materialize.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Yobogoya!

[Bray Wyatt]

Anyone think no fans impacts this at all? There is no real home field advantage atm

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Defense is physical by nature, and not going through a “normal” offseason of ramping up has obviously hurt these units.  Also, I read a report yesterday that officials were told at the start of the season to “let ‘em play” and the result has been significantly fewer offensive holding calls — like, by a huge margin.

 

I posted in the postgame thread that I have faith McD and Frazier will figure things out, but yesterday was definitely ugly.  The difference is we finally have a QB and offense that can make up for it!

 

This is a really good point. There are a lot of offensive holds going uncalled. Now if the result is the football we have been seeing maybe the NFL wants it that way. But it is definitely a changed context.

 

13 minutes ago, mannc said:

We’ve jumped out to big leads in all three games...Maybe the problem is with the style of prevent defense we’re playing.  Also, the offense is scoring much faster this year, resulting in more possessions for the other team.  Things to think about...

 

Again, definitely a factor. You call defense differently when you are up three scores. And not ever offense is the Rams and can take full advantage.

11 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Anyone think no fans impacts this at all? There is no real home field advantage atm

 

That might have been our best "quality" home win of the McDermott era though. We haven't beaten anyone as good as that Rams team at home in the past 3 seasons. That Rams team is legit. They will win 9 or 10 minimum even in by far the toughest division in football.

[billsbackto81]

Combination of many things.

 

1. Injuries

2. Scheme and defensive playcalling

3. Still not stout enuff up front.

4. No consistent QB pressure

5. Lack of CB depth opposite Tre

6. Lackadaisical (especially 3rd qtr)

7. No killer instinct, need to put teams away.

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

17 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Anyone think no fans impacts this at all? There is no real home field advantage atm

No lead is safe. We've seen so many double digit comebacks this year.

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said:

The run D was awful the first half of last year as well. But we had a shutdown corner last year. Tre White has not looked like the same player. I think they miss Alexander big time. His leadership anyways. He was a big influence in the locker room and on the field

 

And this is what I don't get about the "we miss Star" arguments. When the Eagles ran for 218 against us what was the excuse? What about the 147 we gave up to the Browns? Run defense has been a consistent thorn in the McDermott era and most of it actually is not dline related. It is the fact our linebackers are not downhill thumpers and are not always, especially Edmunds, the most gap disciplined. We don't fit the gaps well. The couple of plays where Edmunds hit his right gap early yesterday they stopped the Rams pretty much right at the line. Am I saying Star wouldn't help at all? No. But players seem to become better when they are not out there. Star isn't the silver bullet now anymore than he was when the Eagles had him on skates a year ago.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

32 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Totally agree.  If you look at the Board comments after the Philly game last year, they read much like current comments on the defense.  Front is too small, big lines will run it down our throat, etc.  But they fixed it last year.  I'm pretty sure they will fix it again.  In the meantime instead of getting blown out when the defense is down, the offense is picking the team up and getting the win.  I think that is the step the team is taking from being a good team in 2019 to being really good in 2020.

My worry is that they "fixed it" by playing crappy QBs - at least in part. Hope you are right.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Last Guy on the Bench

[mjt328]

I'm willing to concede that our weak schedule in 2019 played some factor.

But not to the level we are seeing so far this season.

 

Great offenses make plays, regardless of how good a Defense is.

But we had no answers for them yesterday.  We couldn't stop the run.  We couldn't stop the pass.  We couldn't get pressure.  We couldn't tackle.  We were leaving guys wide open all over the field.

 

Something isn't right, and McDermott needs to figure it out.

 

 

[Buffalo Junction]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And this is what I don't get about the "we miss Star" arguments. When the Eagles ran for 218 against us what was the excuse? What about the 147 we gave up to the Browns? Run defense has been a consistent thorn in the McDermott era and most of it actually is not dline related. It is the fact our linebackers are not downhill thumpers and are not always, especially Edmunds, the most gap disciplined. We don't fit the gaps well. The couple of plays where Edmunds hit his right gap early yesterday they stopped the Rams pretty much right at the line. Am I saying Star wouldn't help at all? No. But players seem to become better when they are not out there. Star isn't the silver bullet now anymore than he was when the Eagles had him on skates a year ago.

I don’t think they necessarily miss Star. However, Edmunds plays his best when the NT in front of him is playing well. It’s a combination on not having a dominant DT and the limitations/skill sets of our linebackers. I doubt there’s a real fix to our run defense outside of FA or the draft.... just bandaids 

[aristocrat]

Snacks Harrison 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I don’t think they necessarily miss Star. However, Edmunds plays his best when the NT in front of him is playing well. It’s a combination on not having a dominant DT and the limitations/skill sets of our linebackers. I doubt there’s a real fix to our run defense outside of FA or the draft.... just bandaids 

 

Star was never dominant anyway. He was solid and yes, he would help. But he was never dominant against the run here. Our main issue remains linebacker gap discipline IMO. But you are right we do lack a defensive tackle that helps to mitigate at least some of that.

[Billsfan1972]

Said the same thing last year, but too many here bought into McD and the hype and thrilled at low scoring games.  

 

They are certainly a much better defense then they are showing, but it was more reflective of their opponents & schedule.   

[DDCC]

Not elite

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I’m not sure it was deceiving, it was their performance against who they played. as Micah said, Not apologizing for playing their schedule. 
 

Other than Brady and Lamar, the Bills faced a bunch of middling to awful QBs. 

 

Star and Lorax contributed more than folks realize. 

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, Last Guy on the Bench said:

 

 

Quite a difference. We survived Goff thanks to our now truly delightful offense. Hopefully the Defense will improve, but I'm feeling very skeptical, since they seem to struggle against good QBs, especially in the 2nd halves once those QBs are able to make adjustments to our carefully schemed out 1st halves.

 

I think we struggled against the run last year too.  If they don't fix the run game (both offense and defense) we will be in trouble.

10 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I’m not sure it was deceiving, it was their performance against who they played. as Micah said, Not apologizing for playing their schedule. 
 

Other than Brady and Lamar, the Bills faced a bunch of middling to awful QBs. 

 

Star and Lorax contributed more than folks realize. 

And Shaq Lawson was stout against the run

[colin]

part of it is holding not getting called, part of it is the d is rusty and out of shape (see that all over the nfl), but part of it is poor play.

 

im starting to agree w the people who said edmunds isn't a MLB.  maybe ship him to strong side and get a real MLB, cuz i dont want to give up on his talent level.

[chris heff]

I think loss of Star matters and I think they went too far revamping DL. Lawson is better against the run than Murphy. 

[BillsVet]

It's well-known that offenses typically take more time to round into form.  There's a certain level of coordination that goes into offense which defense doesn't require. 

 

It's also not as if most of these guys on defense haven't played together.  The secondary, LBs, and most of the DL are all veterans of the McD scheme, so it's not a new unit that's playing.

 

I think the weak schedule last season is a factor, but it's also other teams seeing weaknesses on Buffalo's defense.  Particularly up the middle with Edmunds.  He's not a MLB in the NFL and still has meh instincts. 

 

Teams had an entire off-season to review other teams.  Either McD and Frazier adapt or this will continue to happen.  Yesterday a better HC almost beat McD's defense because he adapted better.  Same thing happened during the WC game in January.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, ProcessTruster said:

D is not that important in the NFL anymore.  great offense is.   I'll trade in a great for a good defense to get a great offense in today's NFL everyday.   If you are not scoring 30+ most games , the rules have you going nowhere in today's NFL.   so I am good.  go Bills.  Davis and Diggs huge additions this year.  

 

I respectfully disagree.   D will always be important.

 

To win you have to score more than the other team.  So you have to find ways to score a lot and to prevent the other team from scoring a lot.  Defense will always be exactly equal to offense in terms of importance.  

 

 

[dorquemada]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

We’ve jumped out to big leads in all three games...Maybe the problem is with the style of prevent defense we’re playing.  Also, the offense is scoring much faster this year, resulting in more possessions for the other team.  Things to think about...

 

There's something to this as the D was obviously winded in the 4th quarter.  I get it, was sunny and hot-ish, but they looked strait up out of shape and getting shoved around.   I just looked, and ToP was 32-28 in favor of the Rams.  It felt worse than that though

[Buffalo Junction]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Star was never dominant anyway. He was solid and yes, he would help. But he was never dominant against the run here. Our main issue remains linebacker gap discipline IMO. But you are right we do lack a defensive tackle that helps to mitigate at least some of that.

Sorry if I wasn’t being clear. I didn’t mean to insinuate that Star is a dominant DT. He is however to have the occasional game where he eats two blockers and flashes (Dallas). He’s also average enough to get his ass handed to him by probowl level offensive linemen. 
 

My primary point was that this team needs to either procure a top 5-10 NT/1T or LBers that are more instinctive and disciplined against the run. The latter will likely have a negative impact on the passing defense. Upgrading the 1T is likely the cheapest and simplest “fix” considering it’s generally a value position. 

[dave mcbride]

23 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I can't believe I had to argue with a few during the week that our defense is not elite.... it's far from it. 

 

They had had absolutely no answer in the 2nd half. 

I think your take about the second half yesterday has been a little too simplistic. Here is my view: I felt like McDermott went into the game with a really good plan—do not give up longish passing tds by getting tricked by play-action. Basically, through the first rams’ series of the third quarter, the rams had their way running the ball, but that was by design. The Bills were not going to give in and bring their safeties up to stop the run. Hence when Goff did do play action, he was looking downfield and the plays weren’t there, particularly when the rams were on the bills’ side of the field. After starting 5 for 5 (with most of his completions occurring in their own end of the field), he went 5 for 12 with a pick, no tds, and a failed fourth down attempt. The Bills had the answers in the passing game, and basically the strategy of allowing them to run and maintaining focus on the intermediate to intermediate-long passing game completely bottled up the Rams in the sense that they couldn’t score.  
 

So it was a good plan, and normally it would have been enough to win the game. However, there was a problem: McVay is a really, really good offensive mind and a great playcaller. The Rams basically continued to run, which was fine, but they completely changed their approach to the passing game, relying primarily on very short throws off of play action where the Bills’ secondary was playing much deeper back in coverage. That led to a lot of chunk plays. The combination of the still-effective run game and the radically altered passing game approach (which negated their pass rush too) meant that the Bills D was screwed. Plus they were clearly tired. 
 

Finally, Jared Goff is a very good QB. He is really accurate, and he knows how to run that offense well. He is not the best QB in the league, but he is upper echelon. This league right now is built to support excellent QB play. 

Edited September 28, 2020 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

It's well-known that offenses typically take more time to round into form.  There's a certain level of coordination that goes into offense which defense doesn't require. 

 

 

While that is definitely normally the case. It has not been that way league wide in 2020. I don't have an explanation other than offensive holding has basically been legalised.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Side note, though, is that we have had a top 10 defense for the previous 3 years and right now we are sitting at 20th.

 

I agree with what was said by someone on GR this morning, we may be missing Star a bit.  EJ Gaines' experience wouldn't hurt, either.  Not all of the woe are due to some of these guys out, but it doesn't help.

 

I truly respect the guys who made the tough decision to opt out.  There reasons are there own, and I get it.  Family first, amen.

 

...but if you didn't hate COVID enough in 2020...

[Buffalo_Stampede]

We've had double digit leads in all three games. Teams were racking up yards whike trailing. Bills don't have that killer instinct on defense. I'm not sure why.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[BillsVet]

53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While that is definitely normally the case. It has not been that way league wide in 2020. I don't have an explanation other than offensive holding has basically been legalised.

 

And that could be.  Someone mentioned, I (think it was @Simon) that Morse was getting away with holding all day.  

 

The NFL is always evolving, but rules changes over the past 10-15 years have significantly favored offense.  I'm not sure if that'll ever change and teams are taking advantage, hence the high-scoring to begin this season.