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Why Last Year's Defensive Record Might Be Deceiving


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Like everyone, I'm feeling ill at ease about the defensive performance so far. (Luckily we have the Stallion-Legend-Cantaloupe-Farmer in our corner.)

 

Looking back at last year, we faced some seriously weak QBs. I'm wondering how good our defense actually ever was? Our 10 wins were against:

 

Fitz (2 wins) - whose beard still averaged 300 yards a game against us

Mono-Darnold (who might not be that good even without Mono)

The about to be benched corpse of Eli

The about to be benched Marcus Mariotta

Aging journeyman Andy Dalton - who threw for 250 but did get picked twice, including the game-sealer by Tre

Rookie Dwayne Haskins

The about to be benched Brandon Allen (currently residing on the Bengals practice squad)

Rookie UFA Duck Hodges

Dak Prescott - the only genuinely upper echelon QB we beat - and he threw for 355 with 2 TDs and a pick

 

Not exactly a murderer's row. Three of those QBs were benched the week after they played us.

 

The six losses don't show much air defense either:

 

Lost twice to the Ghost of Tom Brady.

Lost to Mayfield, who isn't that good and still had a decent day with 238 yards 2 TDs and 0 picks.

Perhaps their best showing against a good QB was in the loss to the Ravens - that one gives me the most hope.

Lost to Wentz - who didn't have to do anything because they ran down our throats.

The second string lost to Darnold (barely)

 

This year we have have Goff, Cam 2.0, Wilson, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Murray, Garoppolo, Carr, Tannehill 2.0

 

Quite a difference. We survived Goff thanks to our now truly delightful offense. Hopefully the Defense will improve, but I'm feeling very skeptical, since they seem to struggle against good QBs, especially in the 2nd halves once those QBs are able to make adjustments to our carefully schemed out 1st halves.

 

Edited by Last Guy on the Bench
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We played a lot of bad teams in 2019. That said our D was still pretty good against the good teams. We need to tighten up. I think so of it is upfront, some of it is Edmunds really needs to improve he has taken a step back so far and also yesterday some of it was on our DBs and not just the ones name Levi.

 

The one thing we can be confident of is McDermott and Frazier will figure this out. There is nothing in their past to suggest that it will be beyond them to fix.

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Good post.

 

However, I would like to offer a counterpoint.

 

Franchise QB’s get paid a ton of money because they are the biggest difference maker.

 

Take the 2019 Ravens.  Considered possibly the best defense in football.  Mahomes put up 374 and 3 TD’s....put up 33 points.

 

The Titans had an upper echelon defense.  Mahomes puts up 294 and 4 total TD’s....33 points.

 

More often than not, a great QB will beat a great defense.   
 

I’m down on the defense but but down on the team because we finally can win shoot outs because we have a QB who can win in the air.

 

I mean, the Rams have a good defense and we put up 35 on them.

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The Defense is for sure something that needs to improve for the whole game. In each of the first three games, including yesterday's, the Defense has been virtually lights out in the first half. Then, the second half happens and they become the Cardiac Kids while we all find ways to squeeze life out of the final moments of the game. And it's been a wonderful feeling to see Josh Allen come in and take control of the end of games with the Offense even though it shouldn't be that way to good leads in the second half of those games. As a fan, having actual confidence in the Offense is refreshing and invigorating feeling to have, despite the aggravation.

 

That said, as I was pondering this very thing last night and earlier this morning, I have to wonder what role the lack of Pre-Season plays for this Defense, maybe all Defenses? We heard last night that it's been a historic three weeks in the NFL regarding high scoring games and wild comebacks, and that means it's not just the Bills - it's Defenses on the whole in the NFL. As I thought about it more, we've talked about the Pre-Season and injuries and the impact conditioning has had on them, but we glossed over what kind of impact it has on a Defense in particular especially when the Bills are playing in three very warm, to absolutely tropical, game conditions. I think the loss of Star is bigger than some want to admit, as it pertains to the running game, I think a few of the newer pieces are still gaining the instinctive knowledge of the Defense so they don't have to think about it and just play, and I think the lack of Pre-Season - especially in the warmer games that require elite conditioning, has played a large role. 

 

I'm concerned at this point, but considering all of the above, I'm not panicking or ready to set the ships on fire to salvage the season - I'm at the point of let's see how October plays out for the Defense. Next game is Vegas indoors, then Titans but it will be second week in October - hopefully a bit cooler, and then KC at night on the 15th. Obviously the deeper we go the more playing time and the cooler the weather so I'm hoping by the time we get to KC at night, the Defense is in prime shape and all of it comes together. 

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10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

We played a lot of bad teams in 2019. That said our D was still pretty good against the good teams. We need to tighten up. I think so of it is upfront, some of it is Edmunds really needs to improve he has taken a step back so far and also yesterday some of it was on our DBs and not just the ones name Levi.

 

The one thing we can be confident of is McDermott and Frazier will figure this out. There is nothing in their past to suggest that it will be beyond them to fix.


We have gone through bad defensive stretches every season under McDermott and they do fix it.

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2 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Defense is down all over the league. It appears that the remote style meetings was more beneficial to the offense than the defense

 

Defense is physical by nature, and not going through a “normal” offseason of ramping up has obviously hurt these units.  Also, I read a report yesterday that officials were told at the start of the season to “let ‘em play” and the result has been significantly fewer offensive holding calls — like, by a huge margin.

 

I posted in the postgame thread that I have faith McD and Frazier will figure things out, but yesterday was definitely ugly.  The difference is we finally have a QB and offense that can make up for it!

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9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Good post.

 

However, I would like to offer a counterpoint.

 

Franchise QB’s get paid a ton of money because they are the biggest difference maker.

 

Take the 2019 Ravens.  Considered possibly the best defense in football.  Mahomes put up 374 and 3 TD’s....put up 33 points.

 

The Titans had an upper echelon defense.  Mahomes puts up 294 and 4 total TD’s....33 points.

 

More often than not, a great QB will beat a great defense.   
 

I’m down on the defense but but down on the team because we finally can win shoot outs because we have a QB who can win in the air.

 

I mean, the Rams have a good defense and we put up 35 on them.

Good post. I agree. I don't think that any of this means we have a terrible defense. Just maybe that we have a solid but not-that-great defense, so we are going to have to win games this year by scoring a lot of points (unlike last year when we could get away without doing so). If last year's offense faced this year's schedule of QBs, we might not win 7 games.

Edited by Last Guy on the Bench
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D is not that important in the NFL anymore.  great offense is.   I'll trade in a great for a good defense to get a great offense in today's NFL everyday.   If you are not scoring 30+ most games , the rules have you going nowhere in today's NFL.   so I am good.  go Bills.  Davis and Diggs huge additions this year.  

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13 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:


We have gone through bad defensive stretches every season under McDermott and they do fix it.

Totally agree.  If you look at the Board comments after the Philly game last year, they read much like current comments on the defense.  Front is too small, big lines will run it down our throat, etc.  But they fixed it last year.  I'm pretty sure they will fix it again.  In the meantime instead of getting blown out when the defense is down, the offense is picking the team up and getting the win.  I think that is the step the team is taking from being a good team in 2019 to being really good in 2020.

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We’ve jumped out to big leads in all three games...Maybe the problem is with the style of prevent defense we’re playing.  Also, the offense is scoring much faster this year, resulting in more possessions for the other team.  Things to think about...

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8 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

D is not that important in the NFL anymore.  great offense is.   I'll trade in a great for a good defense to get a great offense in today's NFL everyday.   If you are not scoring 30+ most games , the rules have you going nowhere in today's NFL.   so I am good.  go Bills.  Davis and Diggs huge additions this year.  

 

Exactly, we're finally winning games the way the rest of the great NFL teams have for over a decade now.

 

What this defense IS lacking however is a takeover the game kind of monster. We've got a lot of good/ above-average players, and Tre is an elite corner in zone, but if you look at the top defenses this year they almost all have at least one if not two huge impact players on their front 7.

 

It was the hope that either Oliver for Edmunds (or both) would become that type of player for us, but so far that has yet to materialize.

Edited by Yobogoya!
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23 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Defense is physical by nature, and not going through a “normal” offseason of ramping up has obviously hurt these units.  Also, I read a report yesterday that officials were told at the start of the season to “let ‘em play” and the result has been significantly fewer offensive holding calls — like, by a huge margin.

 

I posted in the postgame thread that I have faith McD and Frazier will figure things out, but yesterday was definitely ugly.  The difference is we finally have a QB and offense that can make up for it!

 

This is a really good point. There are a lot of offensive holds going uncalled. Now if the result is the football we have been seeing maybe the NFL wants it that way. But it is definitely a changed context.

 

13 minutes ago, mannc said:

We’ve jumped out to big leads in all three games...Maybe the problem is with the style of prevent defense we’re playing.  Also, the offense is scoring much faster this year, resulting in more possessions for the other team.  Things to think about...

 

Again, definitely a factor. You call defense differently when you are up three scores. And not ever offense is the Rams and can take full advantage.

11 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Anyone think no fans impacts this at all? There is no real home field advantage atm

 

That might have been our best "quality" home win of the McDermott era though. We haven't beaten anyone as good as that Rams team at home in the past 3 seasons. That Rams team is legit. They will win 9 or 10 minimum even in by far the toughest division in football.

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16 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said:

The run D was awful the first half of last year as well. But we had a shutdown corner last year. Tre White has not looked like the same player. I think they miss Alexander big time. His leadership anyways. He was a big influence in the locker room and on the field

 

And this is what I don't get about the "we miss Star" arguments. When the Eagles ran for 218 against us what was the excuse? What about the 147 we gave up to the Browns? Run defense has been a consistent thorn in the McDermott era and most of it actually is not dline related. It is the fact our linebackers are not downhill thumpers and are not always, especially Edmunds, the most gap disciplined. We don't fit the gaps well. The couple of plays where Edmunds hit his right gap early yesterday they stopped the Rams pretty much right at the line. Am I saying Star wouldn't help at all? No. But players seem to become better when they are not out there. Star isn't the silver bullet now anymore than he was when the Eagles had him on skates a year ago.

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