Do the Bills look to sign Josh to a Long term contract this year?

[TBBills]

Maybe regular fans stop worrying about something they have no clue about and also doesn't matter to them in reality.

[Thurman#1]

 

1 hour ago, PirateHookerMD said:

 

Tom Brady always was "underpaid" in New England to not crush the salary cap. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/tom-brady-contract-discounts-patriots-bargain-2018-7

 

 

Does Milano have a supermodel wife who makes tens of millions per year, as Brady does? Does Josh? Just sayin'.

[NewEra]

16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I would bet Tre has some regrets about that contract. Both Tre and Josh seem like great dudes.  But why would accept significantly less money than you are able to get?  
 

the nfl is a dirty business with non guaranteed.  The second both slip, fans will turn on them.  Look at Saquon.  Blows out his knee before his first big payday.  Given his position, he might be severely challenged in getting a big deal now.  Football players should get every penny they can, especially when they have leverage.  There is no loyalty from teams, so why should players have it?

Because he’s happy where he is.  He doesn’t want to go somewhere else.  He just changed the life of his family for generations......by signing a contract to play football for the franchise that drafted him.  For the franchise that he loves and wants to win with.  You might see it as a bad business decision to leave money on the table.....but I bet he made the best life decision.  Life goes fast, enjoy the ride.  Tre is going to enjoy it.  He won’t look back and think woah is me; I shouldn’t have signed that contract, I should’ve demanded more.  That’s not Tre

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

And how many players do they need to sign?   20, 30, more?

 

 

 

Yeah, around 25 or so, right now anyway. Which happens to be almost the same as the Bills. The Bills will have - at a quick count, feel free to check me - two more guys under contract than the Colts will. The Colts will have sensational amounts of freedom with that money. Same as we did the past couple of years to build our roster very widely with good solid mid-priced FAs. Our OL and DL are much the better for it.

 

It's a major advantage for the Colts.

 

And there will absolutely be major salary inflation that year as demand will exceed supply next year but in that year, 2022, things will switch and supply will greatly exceed demand. Again, we'll be below average, with $95 mill. Crazy to think about. We'll have people on these boards again howling for that year's Jadaveon Clowney, despite this FO's announced tendencies to prioritize re-signing our own FAs.

Edited September 23, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Chandler#81]

🤦‍♂️noobs...

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

You were right there on Spotrac.  

 

There IS no cap space in 2020 or 2021!!!  Search Cap Space and you will see the conversations on the topic.

 

Josh won't be able to get BIG $$$$  until 2022

 

You pay him his regular deal in 2020, then pick up the 5th year option.  Then add 5 years of an extension from 2022-2026.  Lowers the AAV when you consider it over 7 years. 

 

He gets his up front money and you spread signing bonus over those 4-5 years.  You also guarantee a couple years of base salary to get the practical guarantees higher.  

[Thurman#1]

35 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I would bet Tre has some regrets about that contract. Both Tre and Josh seem like great dudes.  But why would accept significantly less money than you are able to get?  
 

the nfl is a dirty business with non guaranteed.  The second both slip, fans will turn on them.  Look at Saquon.  Blows out his knee before his first big payday.  Given his position, he might be severely challenged in getting a big deal now.  Football players should get every penny they can, especially when they have leverage.  There is no loyalty from teams, so why should players have it?

 

 

Please. It's not like Tre's playing for minimum wage here. 

 

And he got guaranteed money when the Bills had him under contract (with no protection for injury) for two more years. Ramsey only had one more year under contract and thus more leverage and less time for potential injuries to derail his future.

[Mango]

I don't get the sense that Josh will demand max pay. At least from my perspective, I would prefer to be in the best situation possible for $30M rather than leverage my team/situation for $40M. I get the other side of the coin, that is a $50M difference over a 5 year deal. I think Josh will need to be wildly consistent to get an offer this off season, something he has not been since he got to Buffalo. But he does seem to be showing it. 

All that together. I wouldn't be surprised if we extended Josh at $160M-ish over 5 years $65M-ish gauranteed. Somewhere around the Goff range. Also, I think that would drive a dude like Baker crazy, who seems like he would chase the $$$. As things stand right now, that would drive a Baker contract, probably under $30M per year. haha!

[LABILLBACKER]

Not mid season. See what his body of work is this whole year and than you can make that decision. Learn from the Fitz contract. I have no doubt Josh will be with the Bills for the next 12+ years and he will get paid fairly. 

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, around 25 or so, right now anyway. But an awful lot of those guys will be signing for somewhere around $2 to $3 million. The Colts will have sensational amounts of freedom with that money. Same as we did the past couple of years to build our roster very widely with good solid mid-priced FAs.

 

It's a major advantage for them.

 

And there will absolutely be major salary inflation that year as demand will exceed supply next year but in that year, 2022, things will switch and supply will greatly exceed demand. Again, we'll be below average, with $95 mill. Crazy to think about. We'll have people on these boards again howling for that year's Jadaveon Clowney, despite this FO's announced tendencies to prioritize re-signing our own FAs.

And the colts still won’t have a QB worth a dam.  Maybe they can trade for Darnold after the jets pick Trevor Lawrence 

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

I don't get the sense that Josh will demand max pay. At least from my perspective, I would prefer to be in the best situation possible for $30M rather than leverage my team/situation for $40M. I get the other side of the coin, that is a $50M difference over a 5 year deal. I think Josh will need to be wildly consistent to get an offer this off season, something he has not been since he got to Buffalo. But he does seem to be showing it. 

All that together. I wouldn't be surprised if we extended Josh at $160M-ish over 5 years $65M-ish gauranteed. Somewhere around the Goff range. Also, I think that would drive a dude like Baker crazy, who seems like he would chase the $$$. As things stand right now, that would drive a Baker contract, probably under $30M per year. haha!

 

 

IMO that's awfully hopeful, something only a Bills fan would suggest. Not that it's impossible, but it's sure very optimistic. 

 

We'll see, I guess. I sure wouldn't mind if it happened that way.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Does Milano have a supermodel wife who makes tens of millions per year, as Brady does? Does Josh? Just sayin'.

 

Josh does not need to worry.  If he's not the highest paid QB in the NFL he'll still be incredibly wealthy.  Unless he wins an MVP he's not setting the market at the position.  With a good season this year i would think the extension would look like, maybe 30-35?  Tannehills AAV was 29.5 in 2019, so in 2020 you'd look at something in that range I feel.  

[Rk_Bills86]

When we sign him - it will be an extension with guaranteed money - so we can essentially get that 4/5th year at still cheap for the year on the books.

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

And the colts still won’t have a QB worth a dam.  Maybe they can trade for Darnold after the jets pick Trevor Lawrence 

 

 

They won't. Or they will. Did you have Lamar Jackson, the 32nd pick, down as a league MVP his second year?

 

Did the Bills trade up for Allen after a season when they had 9 wins?

[NewEra]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

They won't. Or they will. Did you have Lamar Jackson, the 32nd pick, down as a league MVP his second year?

 

Did the Bills trade up for Allen after a season when they had 9 wins?

maybe they will.  They have all the cap room in the world and I think Ballard makes the most of it, but they still have to accomplish the toughest thing there is to do as an NFL gm (imo), land a franchise QB.

 

for every JA there’s another Josh Rosen.  For every Lamar Jackson, there are 10 Patrick Ramsey’s. Sure; they might land the right QB.  They might not:....and then all that cap space means nothing 

 

[Mango]

11 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

IMO that's awfully hopeful, something only a Bills fan would suggest. Not that it's impossible, but it's sure very optimistic. 

 

We'll see, I guess. I sure wouldn't mind if it happened that way.

 

Agreed to an extent, but let a guy dream! For Josh to push the 40M+ mark with an extension this upcoming off-season, he will need to basically continue at a similar pace he is now. Which is not terribly sustainable, especially considering his past play. I expect him to continue to to be much better than years past going forward. But not 70% 380 yards per game good. The more realistic value if he were to be extended this off season is probably $36-38M per. So I am not too far off from 32M/Goff money. 

[Thurman#1]

3 minutes ago, Rk_Bills86 said:

When we sign him - it will be an extension with guaranteed money - so we can essentially get that 4/5th year at still cheap for the year on the books.

 

 

Yeah, probably right, but the 5th year won't be all that cheap. Assuming we pick up his 5th year option before we give him the extension, his fifth year would still cost us around $24.8 mill. Or at least that's the transition tag for QBs this year, and the top few QB salaries, which raise those tags, are going up up up this year. The top ten QBs all get $30 mill or up according to Spotrac, in average salary, though the way Spotrac calculates those - basing some of the numbers on deceptive averages of extensions rather than total the player will receive - makes it an impenetrable thicket at this point.

 

It'll be interesting to watch.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, PirateHookerMD said:

 

I think after the deal that Ramsey signed a day after Tre, that Tre took a team-first deal. Is he stupid? Or is he still set for life and gave his team some flexibility. 

 

Tre did leave some money on the table. About $1m-$1.5m per year over the 4 years. That equates to around $5-6m overall. Can I see Josh leaving that sort of money on the table and signing for $37.5m a year compared to Watson's $39m a year? Sure, I could imagine that. He isn't leaving $4-5m a year on the table. No way.

[iinii]

3 hours ago, ALLEN-2-DIGGS-TD!! said:

Always so easy to spend other peoples money. 

It's the only way to go.

[That's No Moon]

The salary cap will be flat at best this off season which will cause a little bit of disruption to salary inflation.  QBs will still get paid to be sure, but lots of middle tier vets are gonna get squeezed hard.

 

I think you start talking extension to know where everyone stands on the issue.  If Josh continues to play like this the price only goes up.  If he comes back to Earth a bit it's more reasonable and if he, God forbid, reverts to his previous self for an extended period of time the price comes down.  I think it's prudent to let this one play out a little.

[Penfield45]

no chance 

 

would be a total dumb move. Young QB's are so unpredictable. look at Wentz 

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

no chance 

 

would be a total dumb move. Young QB's are so unpredictable. look at Wentz 

Wentz was terrific last season. The roster is decimated by injuries this season too. Plus the receivers are old and breaking down. He's a good player.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Wentz was terrific last season. The roster is decimated by injuries this season too. Plus the receivers are old and breaking down. He's a good player.

 

Meh. I think Wentz played great at the end of the year. He struggled before that and he has started this year the same way. He holds the football too long. I think he is overrated. He has been very up and down in his NFL career.

[Bangarang]

I’m sure the topic is currently in the back of Beane’s mind.

 

If Allen continues his great play throughout the entire season and into the playoffs then I think he and Allen’s agent begin that discussion. 

[Magox]

I don't believe now is the time, typically one of the best windows for organizations to make a Super bowl run is during the QB's rookie contract.  If they were to extend him next year, they probably wouldn't want it to affect the cap all that much in the near term so that they could enjoy having the luxury of having a franchise QB at a much cheaper rate.  Because once his new contract comes into play, the Bills are going to have to make some very difficult decisions and let popular players walk.   While he is on that rookie contract, the Bills can keep pretty much most players that they want to without any immediate noticeable drop offs in talent.  

 

Just gotta keep drafting well as they have been.

[Doc Brown]

He still needs to show it against the better teams.  Next offseason is certainly a possibility.  Even the Texans and Chiefs waited until after the third year.

[billsfan89]

Hell no they don't take extend Josh until he is on the last year of his deal. First off, why not see exactly what Josh is before you reset the market? You have him under control the next 2 seasons after this year. Why not let Josh play out this season and next season so that you know fully what player you are investing in. Don't make the same mistake the Rams did fully paying Goff with 2 years left on his deal, when they could have waited one more year to fully make that investment. I love Josh but I think he should wait one more year for his extension. Not only would it give you the ability to have one more year of cheap QB play but you then would fully know what type of QB you are investing in.

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Being a team first guy in the nfl is really stupid.  Like really stupid.  Like if his play falls off or he gets hurt, what does being a team first guy get you?  It’s a business, not high school sports.

 

Actually it makes sense in the long term. Let your GM build a championship team around you. Go perform like an elite QB for 10 years, win a couple Super Bowls, and you'll get major endorsement deals for the rest of your life.

[John from Riverside]

A nice problem to have

[PetermansRedemption]

9 hours ago, eball said:

No contract extension discussions will take place until after the 2020 season at the earliest, IMO.

 

More importantly, I fully believe Josh is the type of player who will not insist upon a “highest paid” deal and will do what is necessary to allow the Bills to continue to keep a good team around him, similar to how Mahomes took less than he could have.

 

We are so freaking lucky to have gotten the type of player and human being Josh is.  Team first all the way.

#wrongjosh 

 

Loved him since day one. My draft crush that year and was euphoric that they drafted him. Go Bills

[spartacus]

9 hours ago, eball said:

No contract extension discussions will take place until after the 2020 season at the earliest, IMO.

 

More importantly, I fully believe Josh is the type of player who will not insist upon a “highest paid” deal and will do what is necessary to allow the Bills to continue to keep a good team around him, similar to how Mahomes took less than he could have.

 

We are so freaking lucky to have gotten the type of player and human being Josh is.  Team first all the way.

luck played a small role in that decision

the only luck was that Josh was not picked #1

 

the intangibles of Josh are why they targeted him the year before they drafted him

 

 

 

[purple haze]

10 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

You were right there on Spotrac.  

 

There IS no cap space in 2020 or 2021!!!  Search Cap Space and you will see the conversations on the topic.

 

Josh won't be able to get BIG $$$$  until 2022

That's when an extension would kick in most likely.  Money paid out before then would probably be paid as a signing bonus.

[ColoradoBills]

11 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

The Sign Tre thread  --- Tre White's contract is on the books in Spotrac.

With that recorded 

 

2021 Estimated cap space 

2.2 million

2022 Estimated cap space 

$94,390,310

 

If they can they will wait until 2022 for the Bug bucks

 

 

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Keep in mind that in 2022, having $94 mill available means we are 19th ranked in the league in available cap. Expect salary inflation. 

 

The frickin' Colts have $224 mill estimated available cap space. And though they're #1, there are two other teams above $200 mill.

 

If there's any way to get it done early (using guaranteed roster bonuses in 2022, for example, instead of a signing bonus) they should try. There may not be any way. Josh would have to be very accommodating in method of payment, even if not in actual $$$.

 

I just want to caution everyone on the 2022 Cap Space number of $94 Million.

That number reflects only 26 players and the 2021 is with only 41 players.

There is a whole lot of UFAs that will need to be signed between now and then.

Thurman is right about other teams with a lot more space....Bills are a "average( at best) to low" cap space team going forward.

 

The 94 number is going to go down quickly especially because it's 2 years out.  What I mean by this is when a player (say Milano for instance) signs

a multi year contract next year both the 2021 and 2022 numbers get subtracted.  So if Milano signs cheap (10 million) that's 20 million off the 94.

 

As for Josh, he will get his 5th year option picked up (along with Edmunds) at the beginning of next year.  QB will probably be around 27-28 and

LB will be 15-16.  So that's 42-44.  It's normal for both of them to sign long term contracts at that time.

I believe space will be made for the 1st year of Josh's contract by "restructuring" a couple of other contracts but I bet Beane doesn't want to go crazy with that.

Will one or both get signed at the end of next year remains to be seen but I do not see either getting a contract this year.

Edited September 23, 2020 by ColoradoBills

[John from Riverside]

6 hours ago, Penfield45 said:

no chance 

 

would be a total dumb move. Young QB's are so unpredictable. look at Wentz 

It makes no sense to do it now....but not for the reasons you state.   When you can simply pick up his option and then extend him allowing us to continue to add pieces that makes sense.

 

As far as giving him the contract.....he is only going to get more expensive in a league where players of his talent are few and far between.....when the time comes they better pay him

[DCofNC]

11 hours ago, CLTbills said:

While I understand not jumping the gun, there's also a case to be made for this argument. It seems like waiting another year will just drive up the price.

 

Thankfully, we have a freaking wizard for a GM.

Fitzpatrick comes to mind.  I don’t believe in throwing money at a 2 game show.  When you tie your franchise to a guy for 3-4 more years minimum, he better be THE guy.  Josh is looking much improved, but teams are not up to full speed yet, and the two he faced, generally suck, so give it the season.  It’s better to pay him what he’s worth than pay him what a win should be worth and have to suffer through years with a wildly inconsistent crap shoot.

[AirAllenPower]

Even if Allen has 5000 yds, 50 TDs

 

They will pick up his 5th year option...

 

Hes gotta do it twice to get the mahomes contract

Unless he wins the super bowl,  then yes obviously lol

Edited September 24, 2020 by AirAllenPower

[machine gun kelly]

12 hours ago, PirateHookerMD said:

He is a team first guy, don't rush it. They will use the 5th year option and then extend. 

Im in agreement with you on Josh.  They then need to extend Edmunds.  I think the rule is you can only offer one player a fifth year option on a team even if there were multiple first rounders, but could be wrong.

Then again, you can always just let Edmunds go to the fourth year, Allen the year after given the cap reduction and make Milano the priority.

That’s you’re next three years with decent contracts.

[MarkyMannn]

On 9/23/2020 at 8:55 AM, PirateHookerMD said:

 

Tom Brady always was "underpaid" in New England to not crush the salary cap. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/tom-brady-contract-discounts-patriots-bargain-2018-7

His wife, unbelievably, made like 5x what Brady made.  But yeah he might be the only exception to help the team.

 

Or he was paid "off the books"

Edited September 24, 2020 by MarkyMannn

[Freddie's Dead]

The sooner you sign him, the less it will cost.  By 2022, it'll be 45M/yr.

[C.Biscuit97]

21 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Actually it makes sense in the long term. Let your GM build a championship team around you. Go perform like an elite QB for 10 years, win a couple Super Bowls, and you'll get major endorsement deals for the rest of your life.

That actually would be an interesting breakdown.  Like what Brady actually makes.