64.1% = Josh Allen's completion percentage through 3 games

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

Allen is a work in progress, but ‘a good work’. Has the tools of strong arm, fast enough feet and intelligent brain, but his deficiencies?

 

* Accuracy- the Bomb being one

* Touch- needs to not worry about an Int if he lowers the velocity on wide open Receivers.

* Running more carefully, so he doesn't get killed.

 

Yesterday was an overall, B+/ A- performance. Some plays/ passes were ranked in the best of the game- the rollout, across the body to Knox.

Some were poor- Brown and some stunk!

 

We all want to see him light it up!

 

350+ yards, 4 TDs & no picks.

 

Next week is the place to start, with 75k screaming fans, urging him on! 

 

yes

[thebandit27]

3 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

Allen is a work in progress, but ‘a good work’. Has the tools of strong arm, fast enough feet and intelligent brain, but his deficiencies?

 

* Accuracy- the Bomb being one

* Touch- needs to not worry about an Int if he lowers the velocity on wide open Receivers.

* Running more carefully, so he doesn't get killed.

 

Yesterday was an overall, B+/ A- performance. Some plays/ passes were ranked in the best of the game- the rollout, across the body to Knox.

Some were poor- Brown and some stunk!

 

We all want to see him light it up!

 

350+ yards, 4 TDs & no picks.

 

Next week is the place to start, with 75k screaming fans, urging him on! 

 

He's currently on pace to throw for 4,000+ yards

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

18 hours ago, DuckyBoys said:

He threw some ropes today moving to his right that few qbs can make  Only bad throw I can recall was throwing behind Zay on the crosser  He is getting better week to week

 

That one was an RPO too so its always a little tricky - you're reading a linebacker on whether to hand off or not, but also need to set your feet and deliver the ball.  He didn't set his feet and thus, ball didnt go where he wanted it to.

[syhuang]

15 hours ago, MDH said:

So wait, is completion percentage important now? When Allen is 52% it doesn’t matter but if he’s 64% it’s suddenly an important stat? 

 

Can’t have it both ways.

 

no, it's not both ways. It's to the people using completion percentage as an indicator of Allen's inaccuracy and now, with Allen's completion higher than 60% after two games, checking with these people again on what's the next metric they would like to use regarding his accuracy issue. Most people do know completion percentage is very different to accuracy and do not say >60% completion percentage means he's accurate.

 

So, what's the next metric?

7 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I'm glad you included the Y/A at the start, because I think that needs to be included in every conversation when it comes to QB accuracy. Darnold hit 68% last week, throwing slightly more passes than Josh, and yet was a full 70 something yards under Allen's total.

 

There is also a purpose to deep throws, even if they are near misses. A deep pass shows that you can stretch the field, and forces the safety to play a bit deeper, preventing the defense from swarming the middle of the field and opening up those 10-15 yard passes that Allen consistently made in the first half.

 

Exactly. For the people like to use completion percentage as an indicator of accuracy, they should check all Darnold's 28  "impressive" completions in week 1 resulting in 68% completion rate.

 

 

Edited September 16, 2019 by syhuang

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

15 hours ago, MDH said:

So wait, is completion percentage important now? When Allen is 52% it doesn’t matter but if he’s 64% it’s suddenly an important stat? 

 

Can’t have it both ways.

 

It’s only relevant to the ‘analysts’ that said 52% meant 64% was impossible. 

6 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

I actually feel kind of bad for Rosen - went from a bad situation in Zona to a raging dumpster fire in Miami.

 

Would not wish that on any QB. He is going to get smoked down there if he starts in place of Fitz. At least Fitz gets rid of the ball more quickly, even if it was to the wrong team:)

 

Any young QB in a QB room with Fitz is screwed. It’s just a fact of life 

[DuckyBoys]

6 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

 

Yep.

 

I went to two (XXV & XXVII) and loved every second, but the result! During those Glory Years, I watched EVERY second of every game- Attending multiple Home games, Playoff Games & 2 AFC Championships as a Season Tix holder.

 

It provides perspective when younger peeps here try and say this current day Bill is fabulous and Allen is Kelly 2.0.

Maybe. 

I hope so.

Let’s see! 

Lol were not quite there yet  During those years I expected to win just about every game

[Big Blitz]

Mike Schopp hardest hit.  

[HappyDays]

13 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

he also cost his team 7 points.

 

When?

10 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

He overthrew brown by 6 yards when he had 6 yards of separation on the nearest defender. Sorry, 6 points

 

We scored a TD on that drive. He didn't cost us anything.

[jletha]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000001053225/Every-DeAndre-Hopkins-target-Week-1

 

To people that want to nit-pick Allens accuracy and claim the bal was maybe too high or slightly behind a WR at times, potentially limiting more yards, I want you to watch this video. Watson is brought up a lot because we could have drafted him. I think it is pretty unanimous that Watson is a capable QB and I certainly dont see anyone criticizing his accuracy to the level that Allen is. In this video alone I count 4 balls that were off target: 0:24, 1:12, 1:49, 2:14, 2:28.

 

Any of these throws by Allen would have people on here picking him apart for "costing us a TD" but the reality is that QBs make imperfect throws all the time. the key is you back them up by good throws and keep the drive moving. If you want perfection thats fine but know that by your standards Watson would be a QB that still needs a lot of work to improve his accuracy too.

Edited September 16, 2019 by jletha

[foreboding]

22 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

at 7.6 YPA after being told for months that Allen is what he is: a sub 60% passer.

 

I argued all offseason accuracy wasn't really his problem after actually watching and rewatching all of his passes along with several of his peers. I really thought he'd be over 60% this season and got a lot of pushback.

 

Well, we're only 2 games in and today there were definitely some throws he missed (John Brown wants his Td Josh!!!) but, yet again, also throws that were missed by his targets: Knox for sure with a perfectly placed ball and couldn't tell what happened with the pass to Jones in the EZ, but looked like a drop. Last week we all saw the drops from Beasely.

 

We as Bills fans are probably catching on that Allen can be an accurate QB.

 

I wonder how long it takes everyone else to see it...

RIght on. And more importantly, % with wins. Look at Matt Ryan's numbers last year with a losing record. I will take the wins, with the great QB #'s even better.

[Rochesterfan]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Josh's only "bad miss" was Zay on the slant in the 3rd quarter. If he hits that the 3rd Quarter lull is not a thing... and it wasn't a particular degree of difficult throw. He should make that. But every QB has 1 or 2 of those throws a game. The other poor ball was the one where he overthrew Brown in the first half for what would have been a walk in TD deep down the middle - but that was a tougher deep ball and again sometimes you miss those. He was a bit high on the throw to McKenzie on that first TD drive as well which limited YAC and possibly prevented a score.

 

But you are really nit picking on yesterday's performance on a guy who led four 70 yard plus touchdown drives of 10, 11, 7 and 13 plays. Yesterday he was 100% no less accurate or effective with his decision making than any other Quarterback who suited up and took the field this weekend. And he was more accurate and decisive than a good many of them. I think there were 3 or maybe even 4 throw aways. Take those out and even leaving the "drop" by Knox in his adjusted completion % would be even more impressive.

 

Josh played a really good game yesterday. That was a franchise QB performance.

 

 

I would also argue argue on this that unless we know the exact Blitz Hot read on that play for Zay - we do not know if the bad pass was truly on Allen or if Zay played it wrong.

 

The guy covering Zay Blitzed - Zay And Allen both saw it.  Zay continues his slant route rather than just pulling up and presenting himself as a target.

 

Allen saw the Blitzer and threw a half side arm pass outside the Blitzer.  The pass crossed the Line of Scrimmage about Where Zay started his route. If Zay had not ran the slant and just stopped and turned to the QB the pass would have been perfect.  

 

I will admit that I do not know what they have taught the WR to do for that particular hot read - I have seen it go both ways - continue the route and pull up.  The coaches will know if it was a bad passes or an incorrect Hot Read.  We will most likely never find out.  

 

In the end it will go down as a total miss, but really had little impact on an otherwise excellent game by Allen.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

I would also argue argue on this that unless we know the exact Blitz Hot read on that play for Zay - we do not know if the bad pass was truly on Allen or if Zay played it wrong.

 

The guy covering Zay Blitzed - Zay And Allen both saw it.  Zay continues his slant route rather than just pulling up and presenting himself as a target.

 

Allen saw the Blitzer and threw a half side arm pass outside the Blitzer.  The pass crossed the Line of Scrimmage about Where Zay started his route. If Zay had not ran the slant and just stopped and turned to the QB the pass would have been perfect.  

 

I will admit that I do not know what they have taught the WR to do for that particular hot read - I have seen it go both ways - continue the route and pull up.  The coaches will know if it was a bad passes or an incorrect Hot Read.  We will most likely never find out.  

 

In the end it will go down as a total miss, but really had little impact on an otherwise excellent game by Allen.

 

Likely Zay has the option based on the coverage. The middle of the field was open so against that you continue the route normally. Might have been a miscommunication rather than a "missed throw" though that is true. 

[Rochesterfan]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Likely Zay has the option based on the coverage. The middle of the field was open so against that you continue the route normally. Might have been a miscommunication rather than a "missed throw" though that is true. 

 

 

That is what I would figure also, but it is so hard to say when the free Blitzer is barreling down at you and you are trying to read your guy at the same time.  

 

The throw to the middle of the field with the Blitzer was a much harder throw than if he had just stopped and posted up because he had to go over the Blitzer.  A nice touch throw gets that done, but also potentially brings the safety into play if he rotated up quickly.

 

The fact that he recognized the blitz and used the correct hot read and threw to the correct WR was a step in the right direction.  

 

Now they all all need to be on the same page.

[CincyBillsFan]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean very few people are making that point. Almost everyone here agrees he played well yesterday,

 

But it's more then it should be. 

 

When we drafted Allen, the detractors, and there was a sizable minority of them among the Bills posting fan base, claimed that he would be a bust and NEVER be a starting caliber QB.  Then after he showed flashes of excellence during the first half of last season the number of folks claiming he would be a bust declined but not by a lot.  Then after he showed solid growth in his game after the injury the detractors still harped on Allen's accuracy & decision making "issues". 

 

Allen gave us good reason to be optimistic about his being a franchise QB with the way he closed out last season.  Sure, he was still a work in progress but the persistent negativism & pickiness of the Allen detractors got old during the off season.  Hell we had 20 page arguments about the definition of "accuracy" as the Allen haters, and yes they come across as haters, analyzed every throw he made.  Frankly it got silly.

 

Now after a strong off season by the Bills upgrading the offense and a strong training camp & pre-season by Allen we had a reason to be optimistic about Allen going into the season.  And after the first two games our optimism has been reinforced.  I just think the time has come to get behind Allen.  Constructive criticism is fine and makes for a better message board but the assessment of Allen by the haters is just annoying.  It doesn't add anything to the discussion IMO.

 

Oh and for the record GunnerBill I love your takes on Allen.  Your tough but fair and since I can be overly optimistic you point out stuff that I don't see or appreciate.  This allows me to temper my optimism with some realism.

 

 

 

 

[Seven-N-Nine]

45 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Mike Schopp hardest hit.  

He doesn't sound upset today.  Seems genuinely impressed with Allen.  Was raving about his personality earlier in the show as being "perfect" for a player in terms of how he handles the media etc.

[GunnerBill]

Josh graded 78.7 by PFF this week. Does that mean we love PFF this week? 

[SloanBillsFan]

Can't help but wonder what his % would have been had they not stopped passing in the 4th.

 

Particularly loved the completions he had on the run in the 1st & 4th. Honestly was holding my breath fully expecting an INT both times. He almost made it look easy. 

 

Was thinking how sick all the JA haters must be after the first two games. Unfortunately, they'll just save it as ammunition for if/when the Bills lose a game. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BUFFALOBART said:

...Engineered a 98 yard drive that led to a touchdown, as well..

 

4 long drives of 70+ yards without great starting field position and really without a lot of explosive long pass plays. It was 4 meticulous and precise offensive drives. 

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, SloanBillsFan said:

Can't help but wonder what his % would have been had they not stopped passing in the 4th.

 

Particularly loved the completions he had on the run in the 1st & 4th. Honestly was holding my breath fully expecting an INT both times. He almost made it look easy. 

 

Was thinking how sick all the JA haters must be after the first two games. Unfortunately, they'll just save it as ammunition for if/when the Bills lose a game. 

it almost makes me wonder if they are doing/showing just enough to win the game and haven't unleashed the entire arsenal just yet?

 

After all they do have the Patriots coming to Buffalo after the Bengals. Anyone checked the ticket prices for that Patriots game yet...looking to be sky high and tough to get.

 

 

 

On a side note, I just can't help hoping the the Bills wreck Brady or at the very least win this one. Obviously, destroying Marsha and winning the game would be the ultimate 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Josh graded 78.7 by PFF this week. Does that mean we love PFF this week? 

 

No.

 

PFF is still hot trash.

 

[Flutie Flakes]

He had an amazing throw to John Brown with 8:44 left in the 4th quarter.  He dekes a defensive player and hits Brown in stride for the first down.  Just awesome!  This guy is a baller!

 

Hopefully the o-line will continue to jell as they play together more.  He was on the run quite a bit against the giants and if he had more time, could have done so much more against a very, very weak secondary.

[Heitz]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

When?

 

We scored a TD on that drive. He didn't cost us anything.

 

Yeah, but if you use different math we could have have TWO TDs on that one drive! ?

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

No.

 

PFF is still hot trash.

 

Yeah, not sure why anyone quotes them one way or another.

[billsfan89]

Just to be fair and add context the Jets secondary is mid-level at best (solid at safety but poor at CB) and the Giants might be the worst or second worst secondary in the league. Neither team has a pass rush that is top 10 in the league either. So it's not like Josh has had a lot of great defenses to go up against and it is only 2 games to begin with. BUT you play who you play and the path to 9-10 wins is usually take care of the teams you are supposed to be esp on the road and snake a couple of games at home against tougher opponents. The Bills have for now put themselves in position to be successful by winning 25% of their road games including a divisional opponent and putting themselves in a position to go 3-0 against a very beatable Cincy team. 

 

Cincy has a decent D-line (probably as good as the Jets if not a little better) but I am not so sure how well their secondary is and their defense overall is. But it will be a decent test to see if Josh can continue to take care of business against these teams that they should be able to beat. 

[RocCityRoller]

If Josh Allen made some of the throws Matt Ryan, or Carson Wentz did last night there would be pitchforks. But many on TBD would rather have them.

 

Matt Ryan is a good QB, but has been bailed out by superior offensive talent. The game winner to Julio was a designed play where the LT killed a DB (was it assault?) and Julio ran for the majority of the yards after the catch. That is superior play design, and having Julio that can outrun a defense. Ryan took 'gunslinger' shots on two of his three picks last night. Ryan is in year 11, and those are throws we don't want Allen to make in year 2.

 

Carson Wentz leads his receivers (WR, RB, TE) into destruction. Play after play Wentz led people into getting lit up. High passes, leading players into a S or LB over and over again.

Allen doesn't do this.

 

Go figure, having NFL capable WRs and maybe TEs is helping Allen with completion %. Plenty of time to get a stud or two in WR, TE or some stud RBs to help out.

 

Allen is progressing well above the mean, and the cake is still baked vanilla.

[VW82]

20 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Since you claim there were several can you give us examples of the throws he had accuracy issues on?

 

Sure, but let me first be clear that I thought Josh played very well overall. I graded him with an "A" performance and it wasn't on a curve. That said, here are the throws where I thought he had issues with accuracy beyond the acceptable norms (i.e. minor ball placement problems): 

 

1st q (1:56): deep ball to Brown overthrown by 6-8 yards

1st q (1:49): under throw to Foster on the out pattern. The ball was catchable but given how open he was Josh has to do better on that one. 

2nd 1 (14:15): Josh throws wide on the out to Knox who stretches to get one hand on it and the ball bounces off. Trent Green comments how Josh needs to learn when to put a little more touch on it to give his receivers a better chance.

3rd q (4:49): Josh misses Zay on the hot route in the slot throwing way behind him.

4th q (6:55): Josh misses Zay on the crossing pattern in the end zone. This one was catchable but like the throw to Foster it just wasn't good enough forcing Zay to lay out for it on a routine 10 yard throw from a clean pocket.

 

So five inaccurate throws in thirty attempts for an accuracy% of 83.3% which based on last year is on the high side of average for an NFL QB according to Elias Sports Bureau. Like I said, he had a good game. I still disagree with posters claiming Josh's accuracy issues are no worse than your average QB. I think he's below average in that regard, but he's also above average when it comes to making jaw dropping plays. In the end, as long as the offense is able to finish off drives with TDs it won't matter that he gets a little wild a little more often than other QBs.         

 

 

Edited September 17, 2019 by VW82

[Bangarang]

16 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Sure, but let me first be clear that I thought Josh played very well overall. I graded him with an "A" performance and it wasn't on a curve. That said, here are the throws where I thought he had issues with accuracy beyond the acceptable norms (i.e. minor ball placement problems): 

 

1st q (1:56): deep ball to Brown overthrown by 6-8 yards

1st q (1:49): under throw to Foster on the out pattern. The ball was catchable but given how open he was Josh has to do better on that one. 

2nd 1 (14:15): Josh throws wide on the out to Knox who stretches to get one hand on it and the ball bounces off. Trent Green comments how Josh needs to learn when to put a little more touch on it to give his receivers a better chance.

3rd q (4:49): Josh misses Zay on the hot route in the slot throwing way behind him.

4th q (6:55): Josh misses Zay on the crossing pattern in the end zone. This one was catchable but like the throw to Foster it just wasn't good enough forcing Zay to lay out for it on a routine 10 yard throw from a clean pocket.

 

So five inaccurate throws in thirty attempts for an accuracy% of 83.3% which based on last year is on the high side of average for an NFL QB according to Elias Sports Bureau. Like I said, he had a good game. I still disagree with posters claiming Josh's accuracy issues are no worse than your average QB. I think he's below average in that regard, but he's also above average when it comes to making jaw dropping plays. In the end, as long as the offense is able to finish off drives with TDs it won't matter that he gets a little wild a little more often than other QBs.         

 

 

 

The only real obvious misses by my eye were the deep ball to Brown and the slant to Zay. 

 

Ive said it a bunch before but I don’t consider the throw to Zay in the end zone as a missed throw. Zay was being blanketed and he put the ball in a spot where only his receiver could get to it. 

[TheFunPolice]

Still hasn't hit a deep ball

 

To me that's the most impressive part... These are the throws he supposedly couldn't make

[Scott7975]

What I love is he throws the ball all over the field and utilizes all the receivers.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

37 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

What I love is he throws the ball all over the field and utilizes all the receivers.

 

 

 

Ooooohhhh I love these charts! Thanks for posting!

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Alphadawg7]

On 9/15/2019 at 4:20 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't agree. I think that would have been a highlight catch. Laid out with a DB right there. I have been as critical as anyone of Zay Jones but that one is not a drop. 

 

I don't disagree that it was a good throw under the circumstances by the way... I think it was. I just don't think it was on anyone that it ended incomplete. 

 

Well Cover1 who uses the All 22 to do their write-ups and recaps rated Zay a dud and said he dropped the TD pass.  I watched it back and it looked like a ball he should have caught as well.  And lets be honest, Zay doesn't exactly have the track record for the benefit of the doubt here either.  I would personally still like to see the All 22 myself before I make any real declaration on it, but until then it looked like a drop and Cover1 seems to agree.  

 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-studs-duds-new-york-giants/

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

30 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well Cover1 who uses the All 22 to do their write-ups and recaps rated Zay a dud and said he dropped the TD pass.  I watched it back and it looked like a ball he should have caught as well.  And lets be honest, Zay doesn't exactly have the track record for the benefit of the doubt here either.  I would personally still like to see the All 22 myself before I make any real declaration on it, but until then it looked like a drop and Cover1 seems to agree.  

 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-studs-duds-new-york-giants/

 

I’m more upset that treD white got honorable mention under duds.

 

I want to see the all22 also. My opinion in the game was it was a tough catch, one that most #1s make but I’m not sure anyone on the Bills is that good, maybe Cole. 

 

Edited September 17, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Rochesterfan]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

I’m more upset that treD white got honorable mention under duds.

 

I want to see the all22 also. My opinion in the game was it was a tough catch, one that most #1s make but I’m not sure anyone on the Bills is that good, maybe Cole. 

 

 

 

I think Cole makes that catch, but I also think he gets a bit more separation making it a much easier catch.

 

The issue is that if people compare Zay to a #1 he is going to be a “dud” most weeks.  We saw that the last 2 years, but if you look at what he does as a 4th or 5th WR - the role he is in - then he is average.  

 

Zay got his his hands on a low and away ball with a DB on his back.  It was catchable, but was a very difficult catch because the throw was going away from him and he was running a flat route.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well Cover1 who uses the All 22 to do their write-ups and recaps rated Zay a dud and said he dropped the TD pass.  I watched it back and it looked like a ball he should have caught as well.  And lets be honest, Zay doesn't exactly have the track record for the benefit of the doubt here either.  I would personally still like to see the All 22 myself before I make any real declaration on it, but until then it looked like a drop and Cover1 seems to agree.  

 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-studs-duds-new-york-giants/

 

I don't care what they think. I think they are wrong.

[transplantbillsfan]

Has anyone had a chance to look at the All-22 clip of Allen's pass to Zay Jones in the EZ? 

 

Tried looking for it quick on twitter but couldn't find it.  I'd just like to see the angles and see how close it was to being a catch.  The in-game camera angle was horrible.

[Rochesterfan]

16 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well Cover1 who uses the All 22 to do their write-ups and recaps rated Zay a dud and said he dropped the TD pass.  I watched it back and it looked like a ball he should have caught as well.  And lets be honest, Zay doesn't exactly have the track record for the benefit of the doubt here either.  I would personally still like to see the All 22 myself before I make any real declaration on it, but until then it looked like a drop and Cover1 seems to agree.  

 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-studs-duds-new-york-giants/

 

 

That is not by a guy that does film work at Cover 1 and I do not believe he has looked at the all 22 - that is just his opinion.

 

We will need to wait and see.

[transplantbillsfan]

9 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

That is not by a guy that does film work at Cover 1 and I do not believe he has looked at the all 22 - that is just his opinion.

 

We will need to wait and see.

 

All-22 is up.  I just don't have access to it from where I am right now and can't find the play on twitter.

 

That's a play I'd definitely like to see.  I was surprised they didn't replay it during the broadcast.

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Has anyone had a chance to look at the All-22 clip of Allen's pass to Zay Jones in the EZ? 

 

Tried looking for it quick on twitter but couldn't find it.  I'd just like to see the angles and see how close it was to being a catch.  The in-game camera angle was horrible.

 

I still say it was a tough catch.

 

 

Edited September 18, 2019 by Bangarang

[GoBills808]

35 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

 

 

Looked like a drop to me during the game but I didn't think it was this bad...that is a drop and a half