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Last April's 'Bills Draft Josh Allen in RD 1' Thread Revisited


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5 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

Didn't realise there was an archives section here so I found the thread where we drafted Allen last year. Makes for an interesting read to see the initial reactions again. Any of you guys changed your minds at all now? Stand by your opinion? On the fence?

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/205086-rd1-pick-7-josh-allen-qb-wyoming/

Glad you started this thread. Interesting takes in that old thread...haha I wanted them to take Allen over Rosen all along and I am very happy they did. 

Go Bills!

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I loved the pick and came to 2BD to see how many other folks loved it and got pretty depressed.  Back then I was a lurker so I couldn't jump into the argument.

 

I'm a big college football fan and watched a lot of those late night Wyoming games on espn when Allen was QBing.  It was must see TV if you were a football fan and Allen's antics back then were a lot like what you're seeing with the Bills.  Jaw dropping runs & passes; fiery disposition, wth was he thinking passes and skill players dropping balls all over the field.  I remember one game in his last year at Wyoming where his WR's dropped 3 perfect passes in the 1st quarter alone.  What impressed me was that Allen never lost his cool about it.  He didn't show his receivers up.  

 

What's funny now is that I remember thinking as I watched those games that wouldn't it be cool if the Bills drafted this guy.  He would be a steal in the 4th round!  So yea even though we had to trade up to take him in the top 10 picks I'm glad they drafted him because IMO he is the real deal.  His pre to post-injury improvements in every facet of his game give me a lot of confidence in his future.

 

And for those concerned about Allen's accuracy, just remember it matters who you have around you.  Cam Newton went from a  career 59% completion average to a 68% completion average in 2018.   And it asn't because he suddenly got "accurate".  It was because he had a guy in the backfield named Christian McCaffrey who was worth dumping the ball off to. 

 

 

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I was about to do a victory lap as Josh Rosen had somehow dropped to #7 as the trade of Watkins and Glenn worked beautifuly.  And then........ahhhhhhhhh!!!!

 

Allen's the same passer I expected with some amazing throws and some wtf throws.  Ball placement will never be elite.  However, his running ability and leadership skills is something I vastly underestimated.

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

EJ did have a higher rookie year qb rating. Just saying.  Making proclamations  of a star or bust after year one is pretty dumb. 

 

And this is what you do to stop feeling hurt after getting burned by another Bills qb. 

Did you finish your wings?

 

@C.Biscuit97 Wings were done before the pick. I needed razor focus to will the Bills to the right selection ?

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I was at a bar draft party for last year’s selection meeting and facepalmed when the Bills pick was announced. At that point, with Mayfield ( my top QB) long gone my sights were set on Rosen. It was definitely disappointing at the time.In all likelihood , I was wrong on Rosen. While still not even close to sure about Allen, I saw more out of him last season than I expected to. I absolutely hope he becomes the franchise QB the Bills need. 

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I see where I said that I liked Allen as a prospect and that he was legit IMO as a first round QB but that I had a hard time seeing why Beane would move up for him. On reflection that was a probably a dumb thing to say. A first half of the first round QB is exactly the kind of player that you move up in the draft for if you need one. 

I think it's pretty clear that Beane (and a few posters) knew better than most of us, but of course it's his full time job to know better. Josh Allen looked like a man amongst boys in the Mountain West. What I did not expect at all is that he would so often look like a man amongst boys on an NFL playing field, even tho he is the boy and those other guys are the men. To me that is flat out ridiculous. He continues to flash as a dominant player. Now after seeing him for the better part of a year he is at the very least confirmed as the QB in his class (and IMO it was a very strong class) with the highest ceiling and the odds have swung decidedly against him ever busting. He needs now to continue developing as a passer and he still has lots to prove but I don't think anyone can fault the GM for the decision that he made. 

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I did. And have never hidden from it. As I say above I missed on his running ability but even taking that into account Id have only had a 2nd on him based on what he had put on film as a passer. 

 

I will never stop having opinions and mine are always honestly held after putting the work in. Doesn't mean they will always be right. I would be more than happy for Allen to be my biggest miss cos that would be good for Buffalo.

....just curious....how does missing on his running ability equate to a precipitous prognostication as a 3rd rounder?.....CERTAINLY  respect your opinion, otherwise this place does NOT work as intended......what glaring and far more serious deficiencies in his game did you see versus the other 1st round projections that had him as a 3rd on your board?....

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13 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

....just curious....how does missing on his running ability equate to a precipitous prognostication as a 3rd rounder?.....CERTAINLY  respect your opinion, otherwise this place does NOT work as intended......what glaring and far more serious deficiencies in his game did you see versus the other 1st round projections that had him as a 3rd on your board?....

 

So to me the fact that he is a much better runner than I anticipated raised his floor. Because it means there are chain moving scenarios (3rd and medium type plays) where all of a sudden he can make a play without requiring a tight window throw. 

 

My analysis of Allen (and all the other QBs in last year's draft) from pre draft is still available on this board but broadly the reason I liked him less is I thought he was less accurate (not completion % - accuracy) than them and made fewer of the tight window mid range throws that move the sticks and win consistently in the NFL. 

 

I think there were encouraging signs in that regard in his rookie year but there is still a lot of room for improvement. I am hopeful we might have our guy. 

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27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So to me the fact that he is a much better runner than I anticipated raised his floor. Because it means there are chain moving scenarios (3rd and medium type plays) where all of a sudden he can make a play without requiring a tight window throw. 

 

My analysis of Allen (and all the other QBs in last year's draft) from pre draft is still available on this board but broadly the reason I liked him less is I thought he was less accurate (not completion % - accuracy) than them and made fewer of the tight window mid range throws that move the sticks and win consistently in the NFL. 

 

I think there were encouraging signs in that regard in his rookie year but there is still a lot of room for improvement. I am hopeful we might have our guy. 

 

...certainly a valid point...at the same time, he certainly is NOT alone in the "major room for improvement" category among his classmates.........logically and realistically, they would ALL need work in their development...some will succeed and others will not...as Steve Young (yup, HIM) said, "more collegiate QB's fail versus succeed at the NFL level due to the speed and complexity of the game"...hard to argue THAT IMO......"THE most NFL QB ready" yips were nothing but speculative hogwash......wasn't the "illustrious Chuckie" quote, "Peterman is THE most NFL ready QB I've seen in years".....as the late great Paul Harvey said, "...you know the REST of the story"....this youngster is on a mission to prove his naysayers wrong and I respect/appreciate that...stay tuned my friend....

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5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

So this is why I’ve been getting new likes and beers emoticons on my old posts loI 

 

That was fun to read again, funny I thought the freak outs made up more like 50% of the comments...but looking at it now, freak out posts was definitely in the majority.

 

I couldn’t believe how bad people were melting down then and now it’s funny to look back.

   

 

 

That thread is a good example of your weak, circular, goal-post moving takes.

 

1) You attack people for questioning "the professionals" when personnel decisions are made.

 

2) You attack people for NOT questioning "the professionals" when personnel decisions go wrong.

 

You LITERALLY can't have it both ways and present a rational argument.

 

And yet.........you persist..........and without even an assist from nuance. :rolleyes:

 

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I did. And have never hidden from it. As I say above I missed on his running ability but even taking that into account Id have only had a 2nd on him based on what he had put on film as a passer. 

 

I will never stop having opinions and mine are always honestly held after putting the work in. Doesn't mean they will always be right. I would be more than happy for Allen to be my biggest miss cos that would be good for Buffalo. 

 

I'll pound the table for your draft evaluations any day man.

 

Even if we often differ on QBs.

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I did. And have never hidden from it. As I say above I missed on his running ability but even taking that into account Id have only had a 2nd on him based on what he had put on film as a passer. 

 

I will never stop having opinions and mine are always honestly held after putting the work in. Doesn't mean they will always be right. I would be more than happy for Allen to be my biggest miss cos that would be good for Buffalo. 

 

I think most people did, Allen had a ton to work on last year. I think I had a late second round grade on him last year as well. That is not to say he is a bad player, I think most people thought he had the highest upside of any QB in the class. The one thing that really stood out to me on film was his competitiveness (especially in the games against SD ST, Boise St, and BYU). I wasn’t betting against a guy with that competiteness even though I only gave him a second round grade. It was just hard to grade him higher with the limited production, but it was also hard to grade him because his oline and WRs were terrible. 

 

Luckily, I do believe we have a coaching staff that develops players, so we can take chances on guys like Allen. 

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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I did. And have never hidden from it. As I say above I missed on his running ability but even taking that into account Id have only had a 2nd on him based on what he had put on film as a passer. 

 

I will never stop having opinions and mine are always honestly held after putting the work in. Doesn't mean they will always be right. I would be more than happy for Allen to be my biggest miss cos that would be good for Buffalo. 

 

It’s still really early and no one can claim “victory” but I think the thing about Josh that was most overlooked is the fact he hasn’t really had good coaching at any point until now. The growth from the beginning to the end of the year, despite really only getting 3rd team reps all camp, was notable. I believe his confidence is through the roof and I can’t wait for training camp — when undoubtedly he’ll throw too many incompletions and be labeled a failure. :lol:

 

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18 minutes ago, eball said:

 

It’s still really early and no one can claim “victory” but I think the thing about Josh that was most overlooked is the fact he hasn’t really had good coaching at any point until now. The growth from the beginning to the end of the year, despite really only getting 3rd team reps all camp, was notable. I believe his confidence is through the roof and I can’t wait for training camp — when undoubtedly he’ll throw too many incompletions and be labeled a failure. :lol:

 

 

This is going to be a big year for him. He has to make a jump this season.

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Last year was nuts. At various points over the offseason I was high and low on each QB. By draft night, I wanted to avoid Allen. Was praying we would take Rosen. I was pissed and let it be known. It appears that I'm wrong and am happy as a clam about it!

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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That thread is a good example of your weak, circular, goal-post moving takes.

 

1) You attack people for questioning "the professionals" when personnel decisions are made.

 

2) You attack people for NOT questioning "the professionals" when personnel decisions go wrong.

 

You LITERALLY can't have it both ways and present a rational argument.

 

And yet.........you persist..........and without even an assist from nuance. :rolleyes:

 

 

Um....ok?

 

LMAO - Guess today is my turn to face the ranting ramblings of Mr Bado

 

For someone who called me boring and bad today in another thread, you sure are following me quite a bit.

 

Thanks for being a fan, it’s what keeps me going :) 

 

 Now let’s make out ????

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Logic said:


Pretty much the same for me.

It's too early for me to say that you or I were COMPLETELY wrong and that Josh is a guaranteed success.

At the very least, I can say I'm glad he's a Bill, I'm glad the Bills picked him over Rosen, he's a hell of a leader and a hell of an exciting player to watch, and I think his chance to be a great QB outweigh his chances of being a total bust. His floor is much higher than I thought. His ceiling remains to be seen.

I didn't post in that thread.

 

My draft night list was Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen.   Then, when the Bills traded up, I thought to myself, "no, Allen.  Take Allen."  Not that I thought he'd be great.  I was disappointed we didn't get one of my first two, and I tended not to like either Josh.   At the last minute, I thought "I want the big guy, the big arm.  Maybe the Bills can teach him what he needs to know.   Rosen will never have a big arm."  

 

I felt a little better when I heard McBeane talk about him.  They sounded like they really wanted Allen, that they knew that he could be their horse.   But even then I didn't know what you've concluded, which essentially is his upside is better than his downside.  Ask me last June, and I wouldn't have said that.   

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2 hours ago, billspro said:

I think most people did, Allen had a ton to work on last year. I think I had a late second round grade on him last year as well. That is not to say he is a bad player, I think most people thought he had the highest upside of any QB in the class. The one thing that really stood out to me on film was his competitiveness (especially in the games against SD ST, Boise St, and BYU). I wasn’t betting against a guy with that competiteness even though I only gave him a second round grade. It was just hard to grade him higher with the limited production, but it was also hard to grade him because his oline and WRs were terrible. 

 

Luckily, I do believe we have a coaching staff that develops players, so we can take chances on guys like Allen. 

3

Josh Allen had the highest ceiling and yet was considered by many a project QB that was supposed to sit and learn for a year like Patrick Mahomes. Yes, Allen had accuracy issues and concerns he was well aware of and started working on his issues right after his college season ended. 

 

Jordan Palmer started working with Allen and they worked on his biggest issue which was his footwork. Palmer stated he fixed his footwork but alas we all saw 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tIb-B4sGd8

 

 

It was Allen's backstory that was so impressive as after high school he was a 6'3'' 180lb scrawny kid with a big arm. With no football scholarships to a division one football program, he attended a junior college. After his first season in JC, he sent emails to every division one football college out there (over 1000) By this time he was 6'5'' 210 with a big arm. Only two colleges responded Eastern Michigan, Wyoming offered him a scholarship and once EM found out he visited Wyoming they rescinded their offer.

 

While at Wyoming he basically carried his team to a winning season and a bowl game win. Plus, Allen didn't play in a gimmie offense with short passes, bubble screens to pad his stats as he was in a pro-style deep passing scheme. Besides, anyone on offense who had touched the ball in 2016 was gone from the team in 2017. So basically Allen was dealing with a bunch of rookie receivers learning how to do their jobs. 

 

It's not just the off the charts physical intangibles, it's his competitiveness, his fire, his burning desire to win which is so infectious that it fires up his teammates. The kid is big, strong and has arguably the most powerful arm in the league. Allen played in the snow and cold at Wyoming so he should fit right into Buffalo's blue-collar town. What's not to love? 

 

 

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I had to go a few pages in to find my post.  I remember wanting to wait until I cooled off, so I didn’t post out of anger. 

 

I failed.  

 

How do you draft a guy who isn’t accurate and didn’t succeed against scrubs?!  He’s a QB!  Accuracy is prerequisite number 1!

 

I was so pissed off.  I couldn’t believe we traded up for him.  But then I told myself, after many drinks, he’s my QB now so hope for the best. 

 

Happy to be wrong 

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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So to me the fact that he is a much better runner than I anticipated raised his floor. Because it means there are chain moving scenarios (3rd and medium type plays) where all of a sudden he can make a play without requiring a tight window throw. 

 

My analysis of Allen (and all the other QBs in last year's draft) from pre draft is still available on this board but broadly the reason I liked him less is I thought he was less accurate (not completion % - accuracy) than them and made fewer of the tight window mid range throws that move the sticks and win consistently in the NFL. 

 

I think there were encouraging signs in that regard in his rookie year but there is still a lot of room for improvement. I am hopeful we might have our guy. 

I dismissed Allen around the time of the combine because he had some atrocious stat against good competition. I can’t remember what it was but it was glaring. That fact was also followed up with Breer saying that Allen/Jackson were both rocks when asked to work the whiteboard at the combine. I hadn’t even watched much of him but I didn’t what any part of him.

 

Bandit made a case for Allen in a post and it caught my attention enough that I decided watching Wyoming reruns couldn’t hurt. From that day forward I was all aboard the Allen train. He has the “it” factor, many times he would perfectly place a ball to a spot, something we hadn’t seen around here since Kelly. 

 

Missing his running ability makes sense, that puts his floor at Randall Cunningham. Missing those passes is something I won’t understand with many folks. I remember urging people to watch and look for it. Reminds me of Big Ben, moves and can still anticipate the exact spot where the ball needs to be and nails it.

 

If he cleans up the short stuff he is going to be a star.

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9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I have never hid from the fact I didn't want Josh Allen. While I always thought his ceiling was sky high I thought his floor was rock bottom low. I confess I certainly underestimated his ability to move the chains with his legs which would have raised his floor (because it means he isn't have to force balls with questionable accuracy). That said even if I had better evaluated his legs it would have only bumped him up a round and to my QB5 in last year's draft. 

 

I feel much better about the pick now than I did then, but he still has a lot to improve on.

 

And as always.... I care much more about Buffalo winning than I do about being right. 

 

It's all a crap shoot.  We all make our best guess based on the information at hand.  I wanted Allen for no other reason than I thought he looked like a franchise QB, straight out of central casting.  I also liked the small town farm boy narrative.   (How's that for rigid scientific reasoning)  You probably watched forty hours of film on the guy and spoke to his second grade teacher.  If you end up being wrong about Allen (which would be a good thing as you've stated) who cares?  There are so many variables involved with a player's development all you can do is make an educated guess and see what happens.

 

In any event, I'm looking forward to your posts on this year's draft and your after game write ups during the season.   I always read your posts Gunner, you're one of the best posters on the board. You bring a steady, reasoned analysis and I appreciate it. 

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4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Thanks for being a fan, it’s what keeps me going :) 

 

 

 

That being your main purpose here is very clear.  

 

As for me being a fan of yours............obviously not so much.........but your boring takes won't be clogging up the pages I'm reading any longer.:thumbsup:

 

 

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Lol where are half the posters in that thread.  Must have changed their names because Rosen appeared so polished this past season.  One poster said "AZ only gave up a 3rd and a 5th, Beane did a bad job"  Now Rosen supposedly can be had for just a third Lol whos the idiot now.

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Um....ok?

 

LMAO - Guess today is my turn to face the ranting ramblings of Mr Bado

 

For someone who called me boring and bad today in another thread, you sure are following me quite a bit.

 

Thanks for being a fan, it’s what keeps me going :) 

 

 Now let’s make out ????

 

 

 

Is there a massage involved.

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11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I have never hid from the fact I didn't want Josh Allen. While I always thought his ceiling was sky high I thought his floor was rock bottom low. I confess I certainly underestimated his ability to move the chains with his legs which would have raised his floor (because it means he isn't have to force balls with questionable accuracy). That said even if I had better evaluated his legs it would have only bumped him up a round and to my QB5 in last year's draft. 

 

I feel much better about the pick now than I did then, but he still has a lot to improve on.

 

And as always.... I care much more about Buffalo winning than I do about being right. 

Wow that would be a terrible evaluation.  He was QB2 the whole time.  I have to wait for ABs best friend to retire before I see if my QB3 developes.  Darnold may actually proove me wrong but I doubt it.

15 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

I wasn't posting here then but I was reading. as someone who doesn't follow college ball I was very interested to read what people here had to say. In the end I just went and watched all his games from Wyoming.

Sure, tell us what account in that thread is your old one.?

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13 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Interesting revisit..

 

Still early to really be sure about JA, but in hindsight I can say a year later that I’m glad they picked him. over Rosen..

 

Some great takes but the best one I saw was the one that said that at least JA was walking into a solid quarterback room with AJ and Peterman..

May Carr get knocked out for the season and AB have Peterman as his QB.?

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't post in that thread.

 

My draft night list was Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen.   Then, when the Bills traded up, I thought to myself, "no, Allen.  Take Allen."  Not that I thought he'd be great.  I was disappointed we didn't get one of my first two, and I tended not to like either Josh.   At the last minute, I thought "I want the big guy, the big arm.  Maybe the Bills can teach him what he needs to know.   Rosen will never have a big arm."  

 

I felt a little better when I heard McBeane talk about him.  They sounded like they really wanted Allen, that they knew that he could be their horse.   But even then I didn't know what you've concluded, which essentially is his upside is better than his downside.  Ask me last June, and I wouldn't have said that.   

I think it was only ever Allen or Mayfield Otherwise when pick 3 was put on the market Beane would have grabbed it.  Glad Allen made it to us.  We may have been stuck with Peterman.  Although Rudolph would have worked for me later.

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5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That being your main purpose here is very clear.  

 

As for me being a fan of yours............obviously not so much.........but your boring takes won't be clogging up the pages I'm reading any longer.:thumbsup:

 

 

 

Wait...is that a no on making out?  ?

 

Never understood the need for posters to tell people this.  Just put people on ignore.  Seems silly to go through the narcissistic theatrics of announcing it.  

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16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't post in that thread.

 

My draft night list was Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen.   Then, when the Bills traded up, I thought to myself, "no, Allen.  Take Allen."  Not that I thought he'd be great.  I was disappointed we didn't get one of my first two, and I tended not to like either Josh.   At the last minute, I thought "I want the big guy, the big arm.  Maybe the Bills can teach him what he needs to know.   Rosen will never have a big arm."  

 

I felt a little better when I heard McBeane talk about him.  They sounded like they really wanted Allen, that they knew that he could be their horse.   But even then I didn't know what you've concluded, which essentially is his upside is better than his downside.  Ask me last June, and I wouldn't have said that.   

actually, you were pounding the table pretty hard for Cousins. :lol: 

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14 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Josh Allen had the highest ceiling and yet was considered by many a project QB that was supposed to sit and learn for a year like Patrick Mahomes. Yes, Allen had accuracy issues and concerns he was well aware of and started working on his issues right after his college season ended. 

 

Jordan Palmer started working with Allen and they worked on his biggest issue which was his footwork. Palmer stated he fixed his footwork but alas we all saw 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tIb-B4sGd8

 

 

It was Allen's backstory that was so impressive as after high school he was a 6'3'' 180lb scrawny kid with a big arm. With no football scholarships to a division one football program, he attended a junior college. After his first season in JC, he sent emails to every division one football college out there (over 1000) By this time he was 6'5'' 210 with a big arm. Only two colleges responded Eastern Michigan, Wyoming offered him a scholarship and once EM found out he visited Wyoming they rescinded their offer.

 

While at Wyoming he basically carried his team to a winning season and a bowl game win. Plus, Allen didn't play in a gimmie offense with short passes, bubble screens to pad his stats as he was in a pro-style deep passing scheme. Besides, anyone on offense who had touched the ball in 2016 was gone from the team in 2017. So basically Allen was dealing with a bunch of rookie receivers learning how to do their jobs. 

 

It's not just the off the charts physical intangibles, it's his competitiveness, his fire, his burning desire to win which is so infectious that it fires up his teammates. The kid is big, strong and has arguably the most powerful arm in the league. Allen played in the snow and cold at Wyoming so he should fit right into Buffalo's blue-collar town. What's not to love? 

 

 

 

...GREAT assessment bud......aren't they ALL projects to a certain extent?....as Steve Young (yup, HIM) said, "more collegiate QB's fail versus succeed at the NFL level due to the speed and complexity of the game"...don't see where ANY come with a warranty or money back guarantee.....this kid is the "no guts no glory....no bawls no blue chips" type of moxy we are in dire need of IMO...

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I  was hella mad after the pick. Took me about a week to get over it. 

 

Rook was good. Arrived better than advertised, the shades he showed in the 2nd half of the senior bowl got to shine at different points during the season.

 

Ill take that crow fried with buffalo sauce n blue cheese.

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