Jump to content

Bills Most Likely Playoff Chances Include AFC East Title And Home Playoff Game

Gettysburg

By Gettysburg
in The Stadium Wall Archives

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 138
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Gettysburg
Gettysburg

Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think.     The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then lose t

RaoulDuke79
RaoulDuke79

And all that needs to happen for me to win the lottery is to pick the correct 6 numbers. 

billsredneck1
billsredneck1

that's the thing about these threads that i don't get.  you have all these posters who are lining up to declare this season lost already....like 26matteroffact...and anybody holding onto hope is an id

Posted Images

PittsforDave Rookie

PittsforDave

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

This coming from the guy whose every other post is some variation of this organization sucks, this team sucks, Beane sucks, McDermott sucks, or Allen sucks....

 

#potcallskettleblack

You misconstrue my points like you misconstrue the teams objective. 

 

I want this team to improve from last year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DaBillsFanSince1973 All Pro

DaBillsFanSince1973

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

Jacksonville will not be a 7 point favorite if Barkley starts. In fact if Jacksonville gets blown out today, the Bills will be favored if Barkley starts. The line is assuming the Bills are throwing a rookie against that defense. I think you will see the end of Jacksonville today. Six straight losses, out of playoff contention. They will pack it in. Just like the Jets.

 

 

you may need to rethink your prediction.

 

the jags have held the steelers to 66 yds and have shut them out in the first half 9-0.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gettysburg Probation

Gettysburg

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 minutes ago, no name said:

 

 

you may need to rethink your prediction.

 

the jags have held the steelers to 66 yds and have shut them out in the first half 9-0.

 

I thought Jacksonville would lose like 21-3 or something like that but Jacksonville is obviously playing for their life today.  I still cant see Jacksonville scoring on the BIlls and I can see the Bills feasting on Bortles turnovers. My concern is they start a rookie. I don't think you can play Allen against this defense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch All Pro

Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

Jacksonville will not be a 7 point favorite if Barkley starts. In fact if Jacksonville gets blown out today, the Bills will be favored if Barkley starts. The line is assuming the Bills are throwing a rookie against that defense. I think you will see the end of Jacksonville today. Six straight losses, out of playoff contention. They will pack it in. Just like the Jets.

 

Well as was pointed out earlier, you're either a troll , 12 years old, or an idiot.  If Barkley started, the line may drop to 6 or 5.  If they announced I was starting a QB next week for the Bills the line wouldn't move more than a couple points no matter what happens, lines don't change by 7 points. Maybe if they announced Arron Rodgers was starting for Buffalo it might go to even but even then maybe!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Iron Maiden RFA

Iron Maiden

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

 

I thought Jacksonville would lose like 21-3 or something like that but Jacksonville is obviously playing for their life today.  I still cant see Jacksonville scoring on the BIlls and I can see the Bills feasting on Bortles turnovers. My concern is they start a rookie. I don't think you can play Allen against this defense.

 

Were you 10% sure ?.....

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
row_33 Hall of Famer

row_33

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year.  They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible.

 

you’d bet $1,000 on your scenario to win $10,000?

 

I can think of 100 people who would gladly bet against you.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
freddyjj Veteran

freddyjj

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think.
 

 

The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then lose to the Dolphins and Steelers on the Road.  None of these are impossible.

 

The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible.
 

 

If those scenarios play out then....
 

 

The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The 9-7 Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The 9-7 Patriots would be 4-2.  The Bills would be the AFC East Champions.
 

 

Winning the AFC East would mean host a home playoff game.

 

The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win.

 

Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think.

 

Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&nyj-ne-12=loss&mia-buf-13=loss&ne-min-13=loss&buf-nyj-14=win&mia-ne-14=win&buf-det-15=win&pit-ne-15=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win

 

 

Sorry but here's the hot coffee and cold shower to sober you up

 

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/billsstandings.html

 

AFC East Playoff Standings
  Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No
Playoffs
Team W L T 1* 2* 3** 4** 5 6 7
Patriots 7 3 0 8% 30% 25% 24% 1% 3% 8%
Dolphins 5 5 0 <1% 1% 3% 7% 1% 9% 78%
Bills 3 7 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 98%
Jets 3 7 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
 
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gettysburg Probation

Gettysburg

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Well as was pointed out earlier, you're either a troll , 12 years old, or an idiot.  If Barkley started, the line may drop to 6 or 5.  If they announced I was starting a QB next week for the Bills the line wouldn't move more than a couple points no matter what happens, lines don't change by 7 points. Maybe if they announced Arron Rodgers was starting for Buffalo it might go to even but even then maybe!

 

We will see in a few days. Think you are way off on this one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
T&C Veteran

T&C

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, row_33 said:

 

you’d bet $1,000 on your scenario to win $10,000?

 

I can think of 100 people who would gladly bet against you.

 

I'd like to hear the first names of these 100 people... 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MDH All Pro

MDH

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year.  They are not as crazy as one would think. 

 

I don’t think you understand odds.

 

If every game you mentioned was a 50% chance of going the Bills way the chances of ALL of it happen is less than 1 percent. It’s about a 1 in 500 chance of it all happening.

 

And that 1/500 chance is being way generous because the games we need aren’t a coin flip. I’d say it’s closer to a 1/5000 than 1/500.

 

Cue the “so you’re saying there’s a chance!” meme.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gettysburg Probation

Gettysburg

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Just now, MDH said:

 

I don’t think you understand odds.

 

If every game you mentioned was a 50% chance of going the Bills way the chances of ALL of it happen is less than 1 percent. It’s about a 1 in 500 chance of it all happening.

 

And that 1/500 chance is being way generous because the games we need aren’t a coin flip. I’d say it’s closer to a 1/5000 than 1/500.

 

Cue the “so you’re saying there’s a chance!” meme.

 

I understand odds just fine. I don't think every game is a 50% chance. I don't see the Bills losing another home game this year. Confident they are going to win all 4. 100%.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Rockinon Veteran

Rockinon

Posted
Posted (edited)

Jacksonville is the #1 rated pass defense and the #19 rated run defense.  We can beat them by running the ball and taking limited shots downfield passing.  This is a winnable game. We just need to do what we did against the Jets who are the #20 run defense. The passing game will be utilized by taking shots with our newly acquired speedsters.  We just resigned another one this week. Allen is mobile enough to avoid the rush and connect with one of these guys and that's all it will take to make the defense respect the pass.  They can't cover all of them and to me, it was very clear that Allen needs a speedster to succeed. He had none who could get separation to begin with. Now he'll have 3 guys who can get behind the defense. These shots will be limited but necessary to back the D off of the LOS.  And winning this game will be won by running the ball.

 

I don't know about making it to the playoffs, but the next game is clearly winnable.  Jacksonville is very good at disrupting the passing game, but that is really the only thing they have going for them.  Allen can also run.  He has shown that often all ready.  I think he is also the right choice to start against this team.

Edited by Rockinon
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ColoradoBills Hall of Famer

ColoradoBills

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

No, it's not our most likely shot at the playoffs.

 

We're now 2 losses worse than the teams holding the #6 seed. We're 4 losses worse than the Patriots, who I believe have the 2nd easiest remaining schedule.

 

FTR according to playoffstatus.com IFthe Bills win out they have a 23% chance of winning the division and a 13% chance at a wildcard spot.

You have to take into account that there are currently 5 teams with 2 more wins.

 

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/billswhatif.html

  • Like (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
DaBillsFanSince1973 All Pro

DaBillsFanSince1973

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

Even better. A demoralizing loss. The Jaguars are DONE.

somehow I knew you would be back to gloat. I watched that whole game. they're not done, yet. also, had the refs not gifted the steelers 11 penalties for 111 yds it would of been a whole different ball game.

 

seems the refs did not want to see the steelers lose so they only penalized them 3 times for 15 yds.

 

no, I wont say the bills win anymore then I'll say they lose. with how this season has gone so far and 1-3 at home, it would not surprise me if the bills lose.

 

 

Edited by no name
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bakin RFA

Bakin

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, TroutDog said:

Really? I only just recently started posting here. I don’t seem to recall saying anything of the like. 

Ok I’m sure you were confident we were going to the playoffs last year....

like everyone on this board. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BullBuchanan Veteran

BullBuchanan

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year.  They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible.

The odds of the Bills (3-7) going undefeated the rest of the way are about the same as the Bengals scoring a touchdown in the closing seconds of a game?

I'd take that bet.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ol Dirty B Veteran

Ol Dirty B

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

What is so looney? 

You can't see the Bills winning against the Jaguars, Dolphins, Jets and Lions?

 

You can't see the Patriots who were blown out last week losing to the Steelers, Vikings, and Dolphins on the road?

 

You can't see the Bills going to New England on a 5 game winning streak and beating a reeling Patriots?

 

Improbable. Yes. But certainly not "looney" as you say.

 

No, and it is absolutely looney. But for whatever reason you feel the need to convince yourself with this crazy *****, have at it. 

 

You do realize all those games you are saying the Bills could win, are looking at the game against the Bills as one they should win. 

 

This is a new low. Someone convinced that the 3-7 Bills can make the playoffs. They don't even make the in the hunt graphic. Get a hold of yourself man.

7 hours ago, djp14150 said:

Smith broke his leg...why not Brady.....

 

buffali is just 2 games out if a WC spit si that is a possibility.

 

Put down the booze. The ***** was that?

Edited by Ol Dirty B
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Buffalo Barbarian Hall of Famer

Buffalo Barbarian

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think.
 

 

The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then lose to the Dolphins and Steelers on the Road.  None of these are impossible.

 

The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible.
 

 

If those scenarios play out then....
 

 

The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The 9-7 Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The 9-7 Patriots would be 4-2.  The Bills would be the AFC East Champions.
 

 

Winning the AFC East would mean host a home playoff game.

 

The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win.

 

Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think.

 

Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&amp;nyj-ne-12=loss&amp;mia-buf-13=loss&amp;ne-min-13=loss&amp;buf-nyj-14=win&amp;mia-ne-14=win&amp;buf-det-15=win&amp;pit-ne-15=win&amp;ne-buf-16=loss&amp;buf-mia-17=win&amp;ne-nyj-17=win

 

 

 

One can only hope.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aussie Joe All Pro

Aussie Joe

Posted
Posted (edited)

“Before you blast this thread” is the new “Hear me out”..

 

 

3 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

If the bills found a way to get to 7-7, that 6 seed might not be gone by then. Let’s get the next one and go from there

 

Maybe if they get to 7-7 they should play Barkley the last two games?

Edited by Aussie Joe
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chris66 RFA

Chris66

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

The Pats are not very good. I don't see them beating the Vikings. If they fall to the Dolphins on the road, I can easily see them getting blown out at Pittsburgh. The Dolphin game is only game I am worried about but they looked so bad on the road last week anything is possible. The Dolphins also aren't going to fold. They are in the hunt for now.

Bills arent very good and they beat the vikings

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Watkins90 Veteran

Watkins90

Posted
Posted
On 11/18/2018 at 7:49 AM, Gettysburg said:

 

These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year.  They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible.

I don't know if the Pats have had a three-game losing streak in the last 15 years, let alone a four-game losing streak. It is basically impossible. I give it about a .01 percent chance of happening. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
billsredneck1 Veteran

billsredneck1

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

Crazy things happen. Just a few years ago Tampa bay or Washington needed 8 games go there way in week 17 and got in. 

 

If you want playoff talk just keep winning, if we somehow get to 7-7 we will be squarely in the playoff picture

that's the thing about these threads that i don't get.  you have all these posters who are lining up to declare this season lost already....like 26matteroffact...and anybody holding onto hope is an idiot.  that's nothing more than a loser mentality  and it sure doesn't fall in line with being an actual fan.

 

i want this team to prepare to win each and every game and for the players and staff to work together fielding the team with the player(s) that give us the best chance to win.

looking at this next particular opponent, i believe barkley gives us the best chance.  you can put josh in a much more favorable situation by starting him against the fins or even when we get back home.    that is not in any way going to stunt his development.  that's b.s.

 

if they start barkley and things go south, throw josh in, no big deal.  if it's the other way around...season over....home games empty and it will be a slow painful death to the season.

imagine being a player on this team knowing there's still a chance and the coach comes in and says... "  i know a lot of you may disagree with this, but i'm starting josh because the most important thing going forward is getting him reps for next year."  i for one would not be too happy.

 

granted, i'm not seeing what's going on in practice, but given his play pre-injury play and not having played in a while, i have a hard time thinking he's gonna come in and light it up....

and if he doesn't there goes the running game, here comes the pressure, there goes the game.

  • Like (+1) 4
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gettysburg Probation

Gettysburg

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

How bout we discuss this when we are not 3-7.  No wonder ppl on this board get so disappointed if you set your heart on the absolute best possible outcome then you will be disappointed more often than not.

 

I would rather be realistic and pleasantly durprised.

 

 

winstonchurchill1.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...