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Bills Most Likely Playoff Chances Include AFC East Title And Home Playoff Game

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Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think.
 

 

The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then lose to the Dolphins and Steelers on the Road.  None of these are impossible.

 

The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible.
 

 

If those scenarios play out then....
 

 

The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The 9-7 Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The 9-7 Patriots would be 4-2.  The Bills would be the AFC East Champions.
 

 

Winning the AFC East would mean host a home playoff game.

 

The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win.

 

Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think.

 

Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&nyj-ne-12=loss&mia-buf-13=loss&ne-min-13=loss&buf-nyj-14=win&mia-ne-14=win&buf-det-15=win&pit-ne-15=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win

 

 

Edited by Gettysburg
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4 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think.
 

 

The Patriots lose to the Vikings at Home, the Steelers on the Road and the Dolphins on the Road. None of these are impossible.

 

The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible.
 

 

If those scenarios play out then....
 

 

The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The Patriots would be 4-2. 
 

 

The Bills would win the AFC East and host a home playoff game.

 

The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win.

 

That matchup with the Patriots in New England on Christmas eve with the division on the line would make things interesting.

 

 

Getty’s, it is not impossible for each of those things to happen, but everyone of those has to happen for it to be possible.

 

Whic, I think, is virtually impossible.

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Four score and seven years ago... 

 

Forget it!  Welcome to the List!

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2 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Getty’s, it is not impossible for each of those things to happen, but everyone of those has to happen for it to be possible.

 

Whic, I think, is virtually impossible.

 

These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year.  They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible.

Edited by Gettysburg

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Stranger things have happened.

I saw an entire Red Sox fanbase give up on their team when they were down 0-3 to the Yankees in the ALCS in 04. They ended up experiencing the best season of their baseball-viewing lives, watching their team win 8 games in a row en route to a championship and ending the greatest curse in pro sports, starting a run of relevance/greatness that continues a decade and a half later.

Im not saying the Bills will do this, or even could do this, but looking at those scenarios, it's not impossible.

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2 minutes ago, JohnnyGold said:

Stranger things have happened.

I saw an entire Red Sox fanbase give up on their team when they were down 0-3 to the Yankees in the ALCS in 04. They ended up experiencing the best season of their baseball-viewing lives, watching their team win 8 games in a row en route to a championship and ending the greatest curse in pro sports, starting a run of relevance/greatness that continues a decade and a half later.

Im not saying the Bills will do this, or even could do this, but looking at those scenarios, it's not impossible.

 

You make great points and because the Bills defense is playing so well and because the offense may have some life in it now due to adding some speed to the field, I don't see the Bills winning the next 4 as that impossible. In fact if they beat the Dolphins on the road they should be able to take care of the Jaguars, Jets, and Lions, who may have packed the season in by the time they get to Buffalo.

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6 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

 

These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year.  They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible.

How did you come up with the 10% number? If I were to hazard a guess at the possibility of this happening, I would say less than 1%. 

 

Sorry, the Bills are not going to the playoffs this year. 

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18 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think.
 

 

The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then the Steelers on the Road, and then the Dolphins on the Road. None of these are impossible.

 

The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible.
 

 

If those scenarios play out then....
 

 

The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The Patriots would be 4-2. 
 

 

The Bills would win the AFC East and host a home playoff game.

 

The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win.

 

Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think.

 

Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&nyj-ne-12=loss&mia-buf-13=loss&ne-min-13=loss&buf-nyj-14=win&mia-ne-14=win&buf-det-15=win&pit-ne-15=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win

 

 

 

The Apgar test tells me this baby is about 3 weeks premature.

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1 minute ago, TroutDog said:

How did you come up with the 10% number? If I were to hazard a guess at the possibility of this happening, I would say less than 1%. 

 

Sorry, the Bills are not going to the playoffs this year. 

 

I see a very high probability of the Bills beating the Jaguars, Jets, and Lions at home. With a good chance of beating the Dolphins on the road.


I see a very high probability of the Patriots beating the Jets and losing to the Steelers.  Then a good chance of them losing to the VIkings at home and Dolphins on the road.

 

I see a 1 in 5 chance of the scenarios playing out. I then see a 50-50 chance of the Bills on a 5 game winning streak going on the road and beating the Patriots.

 

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Because Barkley's history of NFL play (started or played a significant amount of time in 10 games, won 2 of them, and turned the ball over 2 or more times in 7 of them) tells us he is the QB to lead this team on a 7 game winning streak...

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If we were going to shelf Allen I would say, individualy on a case by case basis..we probably could win each of our last games. I would find it hard to believe we win 7 in a row regardless of opponent. But each week I’d say we have a shot. If Barkley was playing I would say it’s not impossible. With Allen playing, we will get embarrassed by the Jaguars at home. Also I don’t think 9-7 would get us in anyway.

Edited by Brianmoorman4jesus

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I don't know about the playoffs..but if Allen can be even slightly improved, I do think the Bills can beat the 6 1/2 win total.

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we could run the table but I don't see the Pats dropping that many

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And all that needs to happen for me to win the lottery is to pick the correct 6 numbers. 

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Just now, bigK14094 said:

Looney tunes thread.

 

What is so looney? 

You can't see the Bills winning against the Jaguars, Dolphins, Jets and Lions?

 

You can't see the Patriots who were blown out last week losing to the Steelers, Vikings, and Dolphins on the road?

 

You can't see the Bills going to New England on a 5 game winning streak and beating a reeling Patriots?

 

Improbable. Yes. But certainly not "looney" as you say.

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43 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think.
 

 

The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then the Steelers on the Road, and then the Dolphins on the Road. None of these are impossible.

 

The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible.
 

 

If those scenarios play out then....
 

 

The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The 9-7 Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The 9-7 Patriots would be 4-2.  The Bills would be the AFC East Champions.
 

 

Winning the AFC East would mean host a home playoff game.

 

The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win.

 

Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think.

 

Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&nyj-ne-12=loss&mia-buf-13=loss&ne-min-13=loss&buf-nyj-14=win&mia-ne-14=win&buf-det-15=win&pit-ne-15=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win

 

 

i've pointed this out a few times in other threads.  this is why it would be derelict not to start barkley.  if they start allen against the jags,  they will stop shady and get after josh nonstop.  we will most likely just go back to where we were 2 weeks ago.

 

the season will officially be over and other than watching josh finish it out, it would be a huge kick in the nuts to the team and the fan base.

barkley gives them the best chance for a win and it ain't even debatable. sending josh out there to take a beating and have the season lost at home is not the recipe for his.... "development".

 

it could end up being quite the opposite.

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5 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

 

What is so looney? 

You can't see the Bills winning against the Jaguars, Dolphins, Jets and Lions?

 

You can't see the Patriots who were blown out last week losing to the Steelers, Vikings, and Dolphins on the road?

 

You can't see the Bills going to New England on a 5 game winning streak and beating a reeling Patriots?

 

Improbable. Yes. But certainly not "looney" as you say.

6-10 at best, IMO.

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So lets see the only likely probability to get into the playoffs is to win the afce as 9-7 will most certainly not earn us a wildcard spot in the afc this season......so therefore we must run the table and new england pretty much has to lose on out from this point forward.......alrighty than......

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So you are saying that there is a chance! That's all we can still ask for at this point. There are currently 10 other teams with the same amount of wins as us or less. Receiving  one of the top draft picks seems about as probable as making the playoffs. So let's try to stay positive and hopefully we get on a role and our QB starts to show us what we want to see.

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10 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

i've pointed this out a few times in other threads.  this is why it would be derelict not to start barkley.  if they start allen against the jags,  they will stop shady and get after josh nonstop.  we will most likely just go back to where we were 2 weeks ago.

 

the season will officially be over and other than watching josh finish it out, it would be a huge kick in the nuts to the team and the fan base.

barkley gives them the best chance for a win and it ain't even debatable. sending josh out there to take a beating and have the season lost at home is not the recipe for his.... "development".

 

it could end up being quite the opposite.

 

You are absolutely correct. The rule in the NFL is you start the quarterback who gives you the best chance to win until you are out of playoff contention.  Matt Barkley right now gives the Bills a much better shot of winning than a rookie coming off an injury who has not played in a game in a month.  Once the Bills are eliminated from the playoffs do whatever you want. They should have learned last year that you play to win until you are eliminated. Strange this can happen in the NFL.

 

7 minutes ago, JPP said:

So lets see the only likely probability to get into the playoffs is to win the afce as 9-7 will most certainly not earn us a wildcard spot in the afc this season......so therefore we must run the table and new england pretty much has to lose on out from this point forward.......alrighty than......

 

New England doesn't have to lose out. They just need to lose to the Steelers, Vikings, Dolphins on the road, and that sets up the AFC East Title game in week 16 against the Bills. Nobody is saying they are going to lose to the Jets.

Edited by Gettysburg

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Your Bills playoff analysis requires the pats to lose 3 in a row?  I don't think that's happened since 2002. 

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