Bills Most Likely Playoff Chances Include AFC East Title And Home Playoff Game

[TPS]

Thanks for letting us know, "there is always hope..." Aragorn...

 

[fridge]

1 minute ago, Gettysburg said:

 

 The computer right now says the Bills have a 1% chance of winning the division. I am saying it is 10%. Their algorithm is using past games where Derek Anderson and Nathan Peterman were quarterbacks to predict future outcomes. I am not. That is the difference.

 

.1% chance to make the playoffs. And yes, it's using the team's season to predict future outcomes.

[Gettysburg]

11 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Not gonna happen!

 

This picture is meaningless. It is only about winning the  AFC East. All these other teams are irrelevant. The Bills catch the Pats and win the division or they are not making the playoffs.  What I am saying is the Bills have a better chance of winning the division than people think and they should still be trying to win games, not get players experience.

 

7 minutes ago, fridge said:

 

.1% chance to make the playoffs. And yes, it's using the team's season to predict future outcomes.

 

It is 1%. Not .1%. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/nfl-playoff-machine.html

 

And you can't use the Bills season to predict future outcomes. The Bills are 3-3 with Allen or Barkely as their starters. Not 3-7. I take that into account. The computers do not. They run all scenarios as just a 3-7 Bills team.

 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg

[The Crowing Rooster]

1 minute ago, Gettysburg said:

 

This picture is meaningless. It is only about winning the  AFC East. All these other teams are irrelevant. The Bills catch the Pats and win the division or they are not making the playoffs.  What I am saying is the Bills have a better chance of winning the division than people think and they should still be trying to win games, not get players experience.

 

[Big Turk]

This video has never been more appropriate than in this thread.

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

6 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

 

This picture is meaningless. It is only about winning the  AFC East. All these other teams are irrelevant. The Bills catch the Pats and win the division or they are not making the playoffs.  What I am saying is the Bills have a better chance of winning the division than people think and they should still be trying to win games, not get players experience.

 

It is 1%. Not .1%. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/nfl-playoff-machine.html

 

And you can't use the Bills season to predict future outcomes. The Bills are 3-3 with Allen or Barkely as their starters. Not 3-7. I take that into account. The computers do not. They run all scenarios as just a 3-7 Bills team.

 

The thread and its premise is no more than hopeful tripe.

[Big Turk]

And on another note I wish McDermott would have said this after the Indy game

 

[Gettysburg]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The thread and its premise is no more than hopeful tripe.

 

Not true. What I am saying is the Bills chance of making the playoffs is highly improbably, but not as impossible as one would think. Therefore the Bills should still be trying to win games until they are officially eliminated. Benching a quarterback off a 41 point performance for a rookie just to get him experience is something you do only once you are eliminated from the playoffs. With how anemic the offense has been all year long, benching a quarterback off a 41 point performance is arguably the dumbest thing this team has done at quarterback. And they have done a lot of dumb things at quarterback.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Shirley

[Iron Maiden]

Just now, Gettysburg said:

 

Not true. What I am saying is the Bills chance of making the playoffs is highly improbably, but not as impossible as one would think. Therefore the Bills should still be trying to win games until they are officially eliminated. Benching a quarterback off a 41 point performance for a rookie just to get him experience is something you do only once you are eliminated from the playoffs.

The chances of 1 of the many things that needs to happen for your scenario to work are good.....the chances that ALL of the things that needs to happen are extremely low....that's how probability works...we're not winning all the games we need to and NE is not losing all of theirs....

[Gettysburg]

6 minutes ago, Iron Maiden said:

The chances of 1 of the many things that needs to happen for your scenario to work are good.....the chances that ALL of the things that needs to happen are extremely low....that's how probability works...we're not winning all the games we need to and NE is not losing all of theirs....

 

I believe there is a 10% chance of the Bills winning their last 6 and also the Patriots losing to the Vikings, Steelers, and Dolphins on the road.  1 in 10. That is my guess. If it played out 10x then 1x it would fall perfectly. That is not very good, but it also isn't like hitting the lottery.  The Bills schedule is weak. The Patriots are not that good as shown by their game against the Titans.

 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg

[Iron Maiden]

Just now, Gettysburg said:

 

I believe there is a 10% chance of the Bills winning their last 5 and also the Patriots losing to the Vikings, Steelers, and Dolphins on the road.  1 in 10. That is my guess. If it played out 10x then 1x it would fall perfectly. That is not very good, but it also isn't like hitting the lottery.  The Bills schedule is weak. The Patriots are not that good as show by their game against the Titans.

If you believe that there's 10% chance the Bills win their 5...and also believe there's a 10% chance NE losing those 3 games.....then the probability of those 2 scenarios happening is much less than 10%...it becomes 1%.....that's my point.....

[Gettysburg]

7 minutes ago, Iron Maiden said:

If you believe that there's 10% chance the Bills win their 5...and also believe there's a 10% chance NE losing those 3 games.....then the probability of those 2 scenarios happening is much less than 10%...it becomes 1%.....that's my point.....

 

That is not what I said. I think the chances of the Bills winning their last 5 ( plus NE which also counts as a loss for NE) are closer to 33%. I place a 90% chance at the Bills going 4-0 againt Jacksonville, Jets, Lions, and Dolphins.  I expect all 4 to have checked out.

 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg

[MJS]

I think this scenario would require Tom Brady to get injured. Maybe his backup too.

[DRA3196]

• I think the optimism is great. But obviously we blew out a bad team a week before the bye. Which is always better than a loss.
•  

[Iron Maiden]

Just now, Gettysburg said:

 

That is not what I said. I think the chances of teh Bills winning their last 5 ( plus NE which also counts as a loss for NE) are closer to 33%.

Right off the bat...Us, beating NE with Brady playing the full game...in Foxboro.... comes to mind as the most likely thing to ruin your scenario....followed by beating Miami on the road....NE rarely has issue beating Pittsburgh....As Big Ben himself says.." They're our daddy ".....Our offense is still too much of a liability to win consistently, no matter who the opponent is....

[Best Player Available]

42 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

 

 The computer right now says the Bills have a 1% chance of winning the division. I am saying it is 10%. Their algorithm is using past games where Derek Anderson and Nathan Peterman were quarterbacks to predict future outcomes. I am not. That is the difference.

Your first TWO hours on the board have been awesome.

Any other insane predictions? 

[Gettysburg]

13 minutes ago, Iron Maiden said:

Right off the bat...Us, beating NE with Brady playing the full game...in Foxboro.... comes to mind as the most likely thing to ruin your scenario....followed by beating Miami on the road....NE rarely has issue beating Pittsburgh....As Big Ben himself says.." They're our daddy ".....Our offense is still too much of a liability to win consistently, no matter who the opponent is....

 

I don't think the Patriots are that good. That is where we differ. I think they are headed towards a collapse. I really believe they will get beaten at home by the Vikings, lose on the road to the Dolphins (just like they got blown out by the Titans last week) and the wheels will completely come off in Pittsburgh. I think they are done.

 

7 minutes ago, Best Player Available said:

Your first TWO hours on the board have been awesome.

Any other insane predictions? 

 

The Bills have the number 1 defense in football. They finally have two NFL caliber quarterbacks.  They get Jacksonville who will likely have lost 6 in a row next week. They get a soft Dolphins team the next week.  They then get an atrocious Lions and atrocious Jets team at home. Is it really insane to predict they win the next 4?

 

The Pats just got blown out by the Titans. The Pats get the Jets, then they get a hot Vikings team that could get even hotter, a road game against a team similar to the Titans in the Dolphins, and then the red hot Steelers. Is it insane to think they lose three of those four games?

 

That happens and the Bills head to New England with the AFC East Championship on the line.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year.  They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible.

 

I'd imagine the odds are much lower, less than 1%.  2 of the games, Jax and Fish in Miami, the Bills will be underdog. so lets just say it's 1.25:1 against. So multiply that, now add i na factor for every other game you mention and that number drops real fast.

 

Actually just saw on one site not certain am interpreting correctly but lists them at .1% chance.  Another site give the m1/250 to win division which is even less.

[Iron Maiden]

Just now, Gettysburg said:

 

I don't think the Patriots are that good. That is where we differ. I think they are headed towards a collapse. I really believe they will get beaten at home by the Vikings, lose on the road to the Dolphins (just like they got blown out by the Titans last week) and the wheels will completely come off in Pittsburgh. I think they are done.

Brady is slowing ...this time, I believe it's happening...FINALLY.....but when he's on, he's still a very good QB...the best in the division by far...I expect them to come out of their bye a much better team...I've seen it year in and year out ..... Belichick will bring them in line...that's kind of what he does...NE will win the division...again....they haven't collapse in the last 20 years....I don't see it happening....I think the real collapse happens next year.....the division just might see a new winner....