Is No. 1 Ranking Legit or a Mirage?

[Scott7975]

This seems like a good one to look at as well as some others on this site.... Opponents points per play.  Bills rank 24th.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-points-per-play

 

Some people like to look at PPG.  I do too.  The Bills however rank dead last in opponents defensive tds.  Take that into consideration.

 

 

Edited November 13, 2018 by Scott7975

[Dopey]

29 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Really good move to unload Dareus and his absurd salary.  Look at the decay of the Jags D over time. That kind of paycheck has to effect the locker room.   

Maybe, but I think their problem is Bortles.

[corta765]

The greatest sign of how good the defense is was the MNF game. I at no point feared Brady because they played so well and basically said if we had any offense we could've/should've won. I have not been able to say that at virtually any point since Brady came minus a select weird game here or there like the 2015 MNF game strikes me as one of those. But Brady carved us up week 2 so it felt more false then.

Edited November 13, 2018 by corta765

[reddogblitz]

The yards thing is nice. but holding down the points would be better.

[ctk232]

5 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

 

For whatever reason on pre-game shows, ESPN, etc. they always refer to the yardage leaders as #1 Defense, Offense, etc.  While, it is true the Bills D may be #1 in yardage allowed, they are not really anywhere near that in points allowed.  While yardage can be an indicator of a D's abilities, points win games.  Limiting points seems to be the best stat to lead in if your are a Defense.  My take anyway.

 

For what its worth, ESPN stats show the Bills D 19th in points allowed at 25.1 points per game.  Tennessee is #1 giving up 16.8 ppg.  If I had my choice I would give up yards all day to have the #1 scoring defense (especially considering our O's struggles).

Couldn't agree more - I do wonder though, how many of those points came off of drives where our offense turned the ball over, or where the opposing team's drives started in our own territory. It's likely the yards allowed v. points allowed ratio gets skewed by that as a result of the starting field position of opposing offenses and offensive turnovers (of which we have plenty).

 

Update per *sigh* Rodak (ew): "and opponents are starting with the best average field position seen in the NFL since 2010, which limits how many yards Buffalo's defense can give up."

Edited November 13, 2018 by ctk232

[DuckyBoys]

Top 5 sounds about right  If they managed anything on offense the unit could be #1. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

It's so nice seeing the negative people around doing their best to poo-poo the one bright spot on the team.

Kudos to you all. Kudos indeed!

 

[billspro]

3 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

The Bills do not have the best defense in football.

 

It really doesn’t matter what you believe. Statistically they are the best D in football. 

3 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

That would be a rarity considering the Bills are near the bottom in red zone defense. It's been a problem since McDermott's arrival. The solution could be adding a dynamic egde rusher. Hughes is a solid player and Milano is a beast at what he does, but it's not quite enough. 

 

The offence is responsible for a lot of the points against. Turnovers, 3 and outs, and pick sixes are a big factor in points against.

1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

The yards thing is nice. but holding down the points would be better.

 

That’s on the offence. Any time the offence has shown up we have held the other team under 14 points.

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Purely by the numbers:

 

They rank 14th overall in defensive points per game allowed (which is normalized to remove all defensive TDs allowed).

They rank 2nd overall in yards per play allowed

7th in 1st downs surrendered per game

13th in 3rd down conversion rate against

Tied-8th in total takeaways

 

I would say that the above indicates that they're very good, but not top-5

You also need to factor in that they have the worst starting field position (32nd) of any defense in the league - that is, opposing offenses are closer to the opponent's goal line when they start their drives against the Bills than anyone else. 

 

The Bills D is first in yards given up per drive, 4th in time per drive, and 5th in plays per drive. They are also second in net yards per passing attempt allowed, which is an incredibly important stat.

 

Sounds like top 5 to me. 

Edited November 13, 2018 by dave mcbride

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

There’s this thing called a bye week sir.  We haven’t had ours yet, meaning the teams with less yards have 1 less game

I listed the average rankings 

 

per game average is the average 

 

5 games or 16. It is still an average.  

 

Like I said earlier I posted all the stats in the other thread.  

 

 

 

D2D ...  It is nice to see a dominant D

 

Per ESPN...

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

Total D

# 8 Total Yards

# 1 total YPG

 

# 5 passing yards

# 2 passing YPG

 

# 8 total rushing Yards

# 12 rushing YPG

 

# 25 total points allowed

# 19 points per game allowed

[billsbackto81]

They'd be a lot better with a functional, competent offense that can maintain drives that doesn't constantly give opposition so many short fields. 

 

They are legit and it shows when they play. They also seem to turn it up when they have the lead.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

Overrated for now. Top 10, sure, but there lots of points given up, lots of 3rd down conversions, not a lot of turnovers or sacks. It's a solid but not elite defense. Let's see how things shape up if we field a competent chain moving offense.

 

...very fair assessment......

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

I listed the average rankings 

 

per game average is the average 

 

5 games or 16. It is still an average.  

 

Like I said earlier I posted all the stats in the other thread.  

 

 

 

D2D ...  It is nice to see a dominant D

 

Per ESPN...

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

Total D

# 8 Total Yards

# 1 total YPG

 

# 5 passing yards

# 2 passing YPG

 

# 8 total rushing Yards

# 12 rushing YPG

 

# 25 total points allowed

# 19 points per game allowed

#1 typg- you have your answer.

[mrags]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

I actually looked this up the other day.  Average starting field position for our opponents is the 32 yardline or thereabouts according to the website.  Couple that with having way more time on the field than most and that shoots that theory down.  I had the same one, which is why I looked it up.

 

However, the website I looked at could be wrong.  I have to try and find a better website that I trust, but don't have time right now.

Average field position doesn’t mean anything tho for this argument. They have had multiple drives started against them inside their own zone due to interceptions. What’s to say they didn’t stop a few here and there but give up more yards on the short drives. 

 

Either way. It means nothing. We’ve given up the 8th most points in the league and we are 3-7. So how has the “number 1” defense in the league panned out for us?

 

ive always said this... stats are for suckers. Wins are all that matter. We aren’t doing good there. If you really try hard enough you can find stats to prove any argument you are trying prove. 

Edited November 13, 2018 by mrags

[mead107]

If they say we are the it is true. 

[Beast]

You are what it says you are.

 

#1?

 

Yep.

[Chicken Boo]

35 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

It really doesn’t matter what you believe. Statistically they are the best D in football. 

 

The defense is solid, but not the best.  They give up too many points to be the best.  You want to rest on statistics, fine.  Stats don't tell the whole story. 

[longtimebillsfan]

I think it is legit for what it is.  Given the number of turnovers, 3 and outs, and the general lack of ball control the offense has experienced this season, for our defense to lead the league in the fewest yards allowed is an amazing accomplishment.

Edited November 14, 2018 by longtimebillsfan

[iinii]

If we were the best defense we would have more wins. Look at the Ravens and Bears, the years they just owned everyone. Dilfer wouldn’t have a ring if it wasn’t for Ray Lewis.

[GreggTX]

Add a lockdown corner opposite White and replace Kyle with a stud. With Shaq and Murphy at LDE, one could be traded. Find Lorenzo's heir and this could be an awesome D. They're already very good.

[RememberTheRockpile]

45 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Total D

 

# 25 total points allowed

# 19 points per game allowed

The #25 is based on some teams having played one less game. Both stats include pick 6's, fumbles returned for TD's, kicks returned for TD's, and safety's. Removing the TD's and safety's scored when the defensive unit was not on the field the Bills are a respectable 12th in points allowed.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, RememberTheRockpile said:

The #25 is based on some teams having played one less game. Both stats include pick 6's, fumbles returned for TD's, kicks returned for TD's, and safety's. Removing the TD's and safety's scored when the defensive unit was not on the field the Bills are a respectable 12th in points allowed.

Yes people have mentioned 1 more game. 

 

That does not change the average points per game or yards per game #s.  

They play great then they play like hey are not great.  

 

I am glad they have a high ranking.  

 

Shut down the next 5 of 6 opponents and I’ll buy in ? 

[Solomon Grundy]

It's LEGIT. The only QB who torched them was Flacco and that's because Frazier had his head in his arse and McDermott had to help him get it out. 

[CommonCents]

Best secondary in a passing league. That means a lot. If Murphy wasn’t stepping on his own two balls they would easily be the best D. 

 

I have a hard time saying best D when you only have one legit pass rusher but they have to be in consideration.

[RememberTheRockpile]

20 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Yes people have mentioned 1 more game. 

 

That does not change the average points per game or yards per game #s.  

They play great then they play like hey are not great.  

 

I am glad they have a high ranking.  

 

Shut down the next 5 of 6 opponents and I’ll buy in ? 

The average points per game given up for the Bills team is 25.1 putting them at #19.

The average points per game given up by the Bills defence is 22.1 putting them at # 12. 

The discussion was/is about the Bills defense.

[ctk232]

1 hour ago, billspro said:

 

It really doesn’t matter what you believe. Statistically they are the best D in football. 

 

I'm not trying to be a negative nancy here but this is a really illogical statement...based on what statistics? What stats weigh more than others? What do those stats actually mean? Do they translate into in game performance? How can we have the best Defense statistically yet be 23rd in red zone and 19th in points against? How can we allow teams the best starting field position ever seen in the NFL since 2010 and not have our yards per game allowed be affected? Conversely, how does our piss poor offense affect those red zone and points against stats as well?

 

The reality is this, the only statistic that really matters in real-time application for how good a team is is their record; W's and L's.  While this is in reference to the defense, statistics can certainly help to recognize trends and disprove myths, but examining through a lens lacking context and causality will produce misleading results.

 

Don't get me wrong, we have a very good defense, but they are not the best in the league. 

Edited November 13, 2018 by ctk232

[LSHMEAB]

1 hour ago, billspro said:

 

It really doesn’t matter what you believe. Statistically they are the best D in football. 

 

The offence is responsible for a lot of the points against. Turnovers, 3 and outs, and pick sixes are a big factor in points against.

 

That’s on the offence. Any time the offence has shown up we have held the other team under 14 points.

The offense has absolutely nothing to do with red zone efficiency.

 

When opponents get the ball inside the 20, they score touchdowns 80% of the time, which is amongst the worst in the league.

 

There's no way to spin it. That's a problem that needs to be addressed. 

[Johnnycage46]

2 hours ago, joesixpack said:

It's so nice seeing the negative people around doing their best to poo-poo the one bright spot on the team.

Kudos to you all. Kudos indeed!

 

I for one love the D this year.  I think saying #1 D can be misleading is all.  I certainly dont take anything away from the D this year.  Imagine if they were awful along with the mostly awful O.  Yikes.

[ctk232]

7 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

The offense has absolutely nothing to do with red zone efficiency.

 

When opponents get the ball inside the 20, they score touchdowns 80% of the time, which is amongst the worst in the league.

 

There's no way to spin it. That's a problem that needs to be addressed. 

Fret not, it's quite the illogical claim to say the bills are statistically the best defense in the league - even with our YPG allowed. Here's another - the Bills have allowed opponents the best starting field position ever in the NFL since 2010...that can't contribute to our YPG allowed ranking at all....

 

I think much of the responses to logic here come with the implied connotation that we're being negative about the only positive part of the team, when in fact I think we all agree our defense is very good to great? With some degree of error in defining what is "great" v. "very good" of course. Some of us just choose to look at it this through different lenses and gauge our opinions and expectations accordingly, and not hang on to the only grain of positivity in an otherwise dismal season. I don't care if we have the best defense in the league as long as the whole team plays the way it did Sunday on every Sunday - firing on all cylinders. 

Edited November 14, 2018 by ctk232

[LSHMEAB]

24 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

Fret not, it's quite the illogical claim to say the bills are statistically the best defense in the league - even with our YPG allowed. Here's another - the Bills have allowed opponents the best starting field position ever in the NFL since 2010...that can't contribute to our YPG allowed ranking at all....

 

I think much of the responses to logic here come with the implied connotation that we're being negative about the only positive part of the team, when in fact I think we all agree our defense is very good to great? With some degree of error in defining what is "great" v. "very good" of course. Some of us just choose to look at it this through different lenses and gauge our opinions and expectations accordingly, and not hang on to the only grain of positivity in an otherwise dismal season. I don't care if we have the best defense in the league as long as the whole team plays the way it did Sunday on every Sunday - firing on all cylinders. 

Right. Nobody is saying the defense isn't good.

 

The Pollyanna crowd seems incapable of seeing any flaws in the defense because the narrative is that the defense is perfect. Far from it.

 

In order to address a problem, one has to acknowledge said problem. I learned that in AA. I decided not to address the problem, but that's not relevant here.

Edited November 14, 2018 by LSHMEAB

[billspro]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

The offense has absolutely nothing to do with red zone efficiency.

 

When opponents get the ball inside the 20, they score touchdowns 80% of the time, which is amongst the worst in the league.

 

There's no way to spin it. That's a problem that needs to be addressed. 

 

They did have a poor start to the season. I find red zone D is a lot like turnovers, it comes in waves through out the year. They have improved a lot and I expect that to continue as the season goes on. They are too good at everything to have a bad category.

[dayman]

Legit signal we're doing something right, a bit over-inflated b/c of the foot of the gas factor.

[LSHMEAB]

39 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

They did have a poor start to the season. I find red zone D is a lot like turnovers, it comes in waves through out the year. They have improved a lot and I expect that to continue as the season goes on. They are too good at everything to have a bad category.

To quote Seinfeld, that's what makes it so vexing.

 

There's a huge difference between 3 and 6,7,or 8. It's something they need to be better at. From a personnel standpoint, they could really use an additional dynamic edge rusher to fill Lorax's role. Love the guy, but he's very close to the finish line.

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, iinii said:

If we were the best defense we would have more wins. Look at the Ravens and Bears, the years they just owned everyone. Dilfer wouldn’t have a ring if it wasn’t for Ray Lewis.

Different era.....game is officiated differently......offense get away with a lot more.....cant hit qbs......

[Greatdane21]

Mirage - we are still vulnerable at the outside tackle runs and short passes plus tackling must improve too many missed tackles

[Big Turk]

What I see is this. If our zone blitz scheme can generate pressure with only rushing 4 this D is elite. If they can't get there(like against Baltimore, first half against SD and Indy), there are some holes to be found. Not huge holes but holes where teams can move the ball on us.

 

The D should continue to improve as the rookies and especially Edmunds gets more comfortable.  This D is pretty damn good. 5 of the last 6 teams have under 160 yards passing against is. That's unheard of these days and I dont care what the score is. Also the Bills have only given up over 400 yards once the whole season as well which is really impressive in its own right.

 

Football Outsiders DVOA which takes all kinds of variables into account on a per play basis ranks us 2nd in the NFL behind Chicago on defense.

Edited November 14, 2018 by matter2003

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, thurst44 said:

Not really true in gauging whether it's a truly great defense as if we have the worst drive start point (as i believe we do), that impacts ppg. For example, if the opponent picks the ball off at the 20, the D pushes them back to the 27 in a 3 & out, we give up 3 pts, but that's not really the defense's fault. I'm not saying that ypg are more indicative.

 

 

Exactly.

 

Points Allowed is probably 25 - 40% offense and STs. Hell, Peterman has thrown three pick-sixes this year. Should those 21 points really be counted against the defense? In no way.

 

Yards Allowed is virtually all on the defense.

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

I actually looked this up the other day.  Average starting field position for our opponents is the 32 yardline or thereabouts according to the website.  Couple that with having way more time on the field than most and that shoots that theory down.  I had the same one, which is why I looked it up.

 

However, the website I looked at could be wrong.  I have to try and find a better website that I trust, but don't have time right now.

 

 

Try FootballOutsiders. Their drive stats are excellent.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef2018

 

And yeah, the Bills defense gets the third-worst average drive start in the league this year, a huge handicap. Not only that, but the average defense has faced 102 drives so far this year, while the Bills defense has faced 114, another major disadvantage. 4th-worst in the league.

 

While the offense gets the 7th best drive starts combined with the third-most total drives, a huge advantage.

 

The defense is very good, and the offense is handicapping them considerably. But nobody should need stats to tell them that. It's clear to the naked eye.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

Do I think our D ia the best in the league? No. Do I think it is legitimately good? Yes. 

 

Feels like a top 10 D that can still improve but the DLine needs some youth.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

14 hours ago, jr1 said:

a lot of short fields from Peterman picks

 

But they  were also on the field more because of it as well,  so it pretty remarkable to have this ranking considering all the extra time on the field.