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How Safe Are Coach McDermott and GM Beane?


BuffaloRush

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Interesting tidbit from WGR...according to Jerry White there is a prop bet that places Coach McDermott as one of the 5 coaches most likely to get fired.  They gave him 1-5 odds of getting fired.  I know little about better but I am considering betting my life savings against it.

 

IMO, the Bills can go 0-16 and there’s no way Coach is getting axed.  There are a plethora of reasons.  The first is practicality.  In his first year McDermott led the Bills to the playoffs. Period.  That was unthinkable a few years ago, and breaking that streak was huge for both Coach and this franchise.  

 

Second are the Pegulas.  The love Coach and treat him like family.  They gave him a lot of power and authority and he delivered. 

 

The third is continuity.  The Pegulas are conscious of their reputation of getting rid of coaches.  They also know the history of the Bills.  Terry is rumored to have consultants to discuss business with and they will preach continuity as well.  

 

The last is that McDermott and Beane were probably very clear in the time their “process” would take.  I have no doubt that Terry gave Coach his word that he was committed to five years and would give him some time.

 

Either way, I’d put the odds if Coach McDermottt getting fired at 5%.  Jerry White said he feels McDermott is one of the safest coaches in the NFL.  I would agree.  What say you?

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Right now, this looks like one of the most poorly managed teams in the NFL, both in terms of identifying and retaining talent and managing the salary cap. I guess you have to put that on the GM more than the coach, but the talent part is pretty egregious on both sides. 

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We need to remember that if/when there is a HC/GM opening, Buffalo is always a very hard sell.  There's a very short line of people waiting to come to Buffalo as either HC or GM.  That's how/why we have had such a string of losers along the way.

 

Having said that, I hope they are both wildly successful!

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Just now, skibum said:

Right now, this looks like one of the most poorly managed teams in the NFL, both in terms of identifying and retaining talent and managing the salary cap. I guess you have to put that on the GM more than the coach, but the talent part is pretty egregious on both sides. 

 

They created the high dead cap intentionally as part of the overall plan moving forward with 2019 as the year they spend to acquire better talent via UFA and the draft.

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Earliest he'd get fired is near the end of next season. Pegulas will have signed off on this rebuild so they knew there was a good chance this was going to be a down year. Next year will be the money year. If McBeane can't improve the roster and they wind up whiffing on Allen, there could be some fire the coach buzz going into the final few games. I still doubt they'd do it, but you never know what gets said or how things play out behind the scenes. Three years is enough time to determine whether your new coach/GM have the goods IMO.

Edited by VW82
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Next year starts the evaluation clock on the McBeane era.  They will get two years (2019 and 2020) to show substantial progress.  The bar will be pretty high -- like double digit wins by 2020. Considering that hasn't been accomplished yet this century--that's a fair standard.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Earliest he'd get fired is near the end of next season. Pegulas will have signed off on this rebuild so they knew there was a good chance this was going to be a down year. Next year will be the money year. If McBeane can't improve the roster and they wind up whiffing on Allen, there could be some fire the coach buzz going into the final few games. I still doubt they'd do it, but you never know what gets said or how things play out behind the scenes. Three years is enough time to determine whether your new coach/GM have the goods IMO.

 

Exactly the right take.

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2 minutes ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

We need to remember that if/when there is a HC/GM opening, Buffalo is always a very hard sell.  There's a very short line of people waiting to come to Buffalo as either HC or GM.  That's how/why we have had such a string of losers along the way.

 

Having said that, I hope they are both wildly successful!

 

Do you really feel that was true in 2015?  Our D the previous year was #4 in the NFL, and there was some talent on the team.  I remember there being a fair bit of interest.

Likewise 2017, still good bit of talent on the roster, seemed to be a good bit of interest.

 

I think the interest goes with the talent on the team.  If Allen and Edmunds look promising, there would be interest.  Otherwise, McBeane have scraped the talent cupboard pretty bare, so not.

 

There are only 32 of these jobs in the world, so it's not as though coaches can afford to be so picky about what city they're in.  They have to be realistic about their chances for success, though (see above)

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this is a 5 year deal IMO. Anything less than that is just another tear down, new scheme, flush the next few years down the toilet. This franchise is desperate for continuity at the GM and HC spots. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, skibum said:

Right now, this looks like one of the most poorly managed teams in the NFL, both in terms of identifying and retaining talent and managing the salary cap. I guess you have to put that on the GM more than the coach, but the talent part is pretty egregious on both sides. 

Who do you think they should have kept? Who shouldn’t they have signed. 

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One year into a total rebuild from top to bottom for the entire organization? Sorry, but this is not the time to jump ship and abandon what we all should have understood was needed years earlier. Maybe we can wait and see what they do with all the cap space and a couple more high draft picks before we grab the pitchforks and torches. Geez, I can't believe I'm even having to say this. I've criticized the organization when homers said we'd have a great season. Now I'm having to tell the haters to get real. SMH...

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Give it a rest folks.  We all cried about the endless mediocrity of the previous 17 years.  We all whined about not investing draft resources into a top QB.  We all b*tched about paying too much for mediocre free agents and the wrong drafted players.  

 

Our leadership (rightly) decided on strategies that required a patient, thoughtful approach instead of the half-assed model that was previously employed.  We all enjoyed breaking the streak last year, but it would have been foolhardy to think that we would be better this year.  This is OK, and it's also OK to take a deep breath and walk away from the keyboard.  This year will likely not be a lot of fun to watch, but just recognize that we're building towards better days and you'll feel better too.

 

Sometimes it takes being really bad for awhile before you can be really good.  

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2 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:

Give it a rest folks.  We all cried about the endless mediocrity of the previous 17 years.  We all whined about not investing draft resources into a top QB.  We all b*tched about paying too much for mediocre free agents and the wrong drafted players.  

 

Our leadership (rightly) decided on strategies that required a patient, thoughtful approach instead of the half-assed model that was previously employed.  We all enjoyed breaking the streak last year, but it would have been foolhardy to think that we would be better this year.  This is OK, and it's also OK to take a deep breath and walk away from the keyboard.  This year will likely not be a lot of fun to watch, but just recognize that we're building towards better days and you'll feel better too.

 

Sometimes it takes being really bad for awhile before you can be really good.  

 

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It's a Bovada line, not a WGR or Buffalo media. It's  +500 that he gets fired. Sunday was an absolute embarrassment & we had 3 games similar games last year. The playoffs were a fluke and if Allen is a bust, than get rid of them. Having as much dead cap, wasting the money we did on FA that will have little to negative impact, and preferring 5th round draft picks to All-Pro DT or capable backup QBs, is not acceptable.  

 

Rebuilding is one thing, not being competitive is completely other

Edited by uticaclub
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They are very safe and they should be.   They have this year and next year.   If they are moving up then they have the next year to get to legitimate contender status. 

 

If by then they are not on a real path to contender, you fire Beane, not McDermott, and then let the new GM hire the next coach.  If Beane chooses to fire McD on his own you let him do itand you let him pick the next guy. 

 

Finally, you do NOT fire Bean until you have several EXPERIENCED GMs available that you can sign.

 

 

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The process (Cliff's Notes version):

 

2017 season: Evaluate what they've got and purge the dead weight.

 

2018 season: Draft a potential franchise QB. Accept the fact that it'll likely be a bad season due to the dead cap money.

 

2019 season: Add talent with all the cap space that they cleared in 2017. Higher expectations than 2018, but don't count on playoffs.

 

2020 season: The real fun begins, as the QB develops and the players acquired in 2019 start to gel. Should make the playoffs or, at worst, narrowly miss.

 

That's a minimum of four years. If the above happens, they'll be back in 2021. They'd have to show Rex-like ineptitude to get fired any sooner. On the flip side, if the Bills make the playoffs in 2019 or 2020, we'll be seeing contract extensions for Beane and McD.

 

 

 

 

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57 minutes ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

We need to remember that if/when there is a HC/GM opening, Buffalo is always a very hard sell.  There's a very short line of people waiting to come to Buffalo as either HC or GM.  That's how/why we have had such a string of losers along the way.

 

Having said that, I hope they are both wildly successful!

 

Possibly accurate at one time, for example the Gailey-Jauron era in Ralph's waning days when uncertainty surrounded the franchise. Not remotely true any more. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

Possibly accurate at one time, for example the Gailey-Jauron era in Ralph's waning days when uncertainty surrounded the franchise. Not remotely true any more. 

 

 

 

If Beane and McD get fired after just two seasons, it will be a hard sell.

 

 

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