What if the bills traded back but the guy they wanted is gone?

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

The bills only traded back because they thought their guy would be available at 2.01. 

 

That tells me they want to take a guy that most people didn't mock in the first round. So who could that be ? 

 

Is it possible the bills loved a guy like Ricky Pearsall, and thought no way someone would take him in the first? 

 

What if the bills shot themselves in the foot?

 

Unless the bills trade down again, why risk losing out on your guy just to gain a better draft position in round 3?

Edited April 26 by TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th

[MJS]

They traded down for two reasons, I think. 1) Beane wanted to get a 3rd round pick, and 2) Beane had no more 1st round grades on players, which means he didn't care if Worthy, Legette, or Pearsall were on the board. He didn't see the value.

 

And it sounds like he didn't want to spend the assets to trade up. He said that he had no intention of trading up, and he usually shoots pretty straight. There's no reason to believe he lied about that.

[Doc Brown]

If the Bills loved Ricky Pearsell they would've taken Ricky Pearsell at #28.  If you love a guy you don't trade back four spots and hold your breath hoping he falls to you.  

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

If the Bills loved Ricky Pearsell they would've taken Ricky Pearsell at #28.  If you love a guy you don't trade back four spots and hold your breath hoping he falls to you.  

But that's exactly what they did?

 

Are you saying the bills don't love anyone at pick 2.01?

[jletha]

1 minute ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

But that's exactly what they did?

 

Are you saying the bills don't love anyone at pick 2.01?

Yes its likely they dont *love* anyone at 2.01 and that there was a group of 4-5 players they would be ok taking at 1.32 or 2.01.

[MJS]

10 minutes ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

But that's exactly what they did?

 

Are you saying the bills don't love anyone at pick 2.01?

That isn't what they did. They obviously DIDN'T love anyone at 28 or 32. That's why they traded back.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

But that's exactly what they did?

 

Are you saying the bills don't love anyone at pick 2.01?

Probably.  They did the same thing with James Cook a couple years back.

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

They traded down for two reasons, I think. 1) Beane wanted to get a 3rd round pick, and 2) Beane had no more 1st round grades on players, which means he didn't care if Worthy, Legette, or Pearsall were on the board. He didn't see the value.

 

And it sounds like he didn't want to spend the assets to trade up. He said that he had no intention of trading up, and he usually shoots pretty straight. There's no reason to believe he lied about that.

This.

 

I think it is fair to criticize Beane if you wanted us to draft Worthy, Legette or Pearsall. If not, there is nothing to be mad about. He will get his guy and got additional draft capital in the process.

 

I wanted Legette but they clearly didn't.

[oldmanfan]

I suspect they had about a half dozen WRs with similar grades so they knew they could move back, stockpile some more picks, and get one.

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

The bills only traded back because they thought their guy would be available at 2.01. 

 

That tells me they want to take a guy that most people didn't mock in the first round. So who could that be ? 

 

Is it possible the bills loved a guy like Ricky Pearsall, and thought no way someone would take him in the first? 

 

What if the bills shot themselves in the foot?

 

Unless the bills trade down again, why risk losing out on your guy just to gain a better draft position in round 3?

 

 

You don't trade back when you have one guy.

 

You trade back when you have several guys and can be pretty sure at least one will be left.

 

 

3 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

This.

 

I think it is fair to criticize Beane if you wanted us to draft Worthy, Legette or Pearsall. If not, there is nothing to be mad about. He will get his guy and got additional draft capital in the process.

 

I wanted Legette but they clearly didn't.

 

 

Yup. I liked Legette too. But - at least at #32 - Beane didn't.

[GunnerBill]

When you trade back twice at the end of a round it is because your board is cleared out of grades for that round. It was the same when we traded back twice at the end of the 2nd in 2022 before taking Cook and the same when we traded back twice on day 3 last year. 

 

Let's say he had a high 2nd on Pearsall and might have taken him at #32 it certainly would not have been the case that he was clear of the other options. They will have a ton of round 2 grades to choose from. 

[dorquemada]

They'll keep trading down until they have 32 picks in round 6

 

ironclad lock

[2003Contenders]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You don't trade back when you have one guy.

 

You trade back when you have several guys and can be pretty sure at least one will be left.

Exactly -- and given the number of calls they are reportedly getting about 2.01, I suspect that there is a high probability that they move down yet again. I have no idea how they have the players graded, but right now there is a pretty good collection of guys on the board that would fill a need who would not be unreasonable to select at 33:

 

DeJean (S)

McKinstry (CB)

Powers-Johnson (OC)

McConkey (WR)

Franklin (WR)

Coleman (WR)

Mitchell (WR)

Nubin (S)

Lassiter (CB)

Rakestraw (CB)

 

They could move down as far as 40, still land their BAP (at a position of need) -- and pick up another (hopefully top 100) pick for their efforts. The plethora of 5th rounders also gives them some ammunition to move up a few picks here or there if they want to make a move later in the 2nd or 3rd.

[SCBills]

Bills clearly wanted Brian Thomas based on the vibes of Beane's Press Conference late last night. 

 

Not sure who else went before us that we would have wanted. 

[Sweats]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

Bills clearly wanted Brian Thomas based on the vibes of Beane's Press Conference late last night. 

 

Not sure who else went before us that we would have wanted. 

 

 

 

Well, i don't know about that, man.

If they wanted him, they could have made a play for him or did they really expect he would drop to 28?

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

The bills only traded back because they thought their guy would be available at 2.01. 

 

That tells me they want to take a guy that most people didn't mock in the first round. So who could that be ? 

 

Is it possible the bills loved a guy like Ricky Pearsall, and thought no way someone would take him in the first? 

 

What if the bills shot themselves in the foot?

 

Unless the bills trade down again, why risk losing out on your guy just to gain a better draft position in round 3?

 

You don't trade back if you're only targeting one guy.  If they go WR with the first pick,  it's a safe assumption that they have a handful of them with roughly equal grades that they would be satisfied with.  

[SCBills]

Just now, Sweats said:

 

 

 

Well, i don't know about that, man.

If they wanted him, they could have made a play for him or did they really expect he would drop to 28?

 

He just had a visible reaction when asked about BTJ.. maybe I'm off, but that was the read people seemed to have.  

 

After the Big 3 and BTJ, they clearly had all the other WR's as RD2 grades or lower. 

 

The thought is that maybe we were in talks with Philly to get ahead of Jax but Philly wouldn't budge off demanding Pick 60.   That's just people piecing things together who have heard things. 

[NoSaint]

5 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

But that's exactly what they did?

 

Are you saying the bills don't love anyone at pick 2.01?

he’s saying they likely have 2-3 similar ranked guys and not someone head and shoulders above that they wouldn’t want to risk losing

6 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

Well, i don't know about that, man.

If they wanted him, they could have made a play for him or did they really expect he would drop to 28?

some of you act like a trade up is just a button you push and not a human negotiation though 

[Sweats]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

he’s saying they likely have 2-3 similar ranked guys and not someone head and shoulders above that they wouldn’t want to risk losing

some of you act like a trade up is just a button you push and not a human negotiation though 

 

 

 

I'm saying nothing of the sort. I was answering another question a poster had of why we didn't take Worthy......if our FO wanted him so badly, they would have traded up for him or did they really expect that he would fall to 28 and take him then.

 

I don't even know what the **** you're talking about?!?

[Virgil]

WGR was reporting immediately after 28 that they were trying to trade back again.  So, unless the player they wanted was Worthy, the picks from 28-31 didn't affect them.

 

Now, did someone get taken before 28 that made them trade back, possibly

[Captain Caveman]

5 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

But that's exactly what they did?

 

Are you saying the bills don't love anyone at pick 2.01?

If they trade down 4 picks, usually it means there are enough guys they have valued similarly that even if 2-3 are taken they are still ok with the guy they get.

[hondo in seattle]

7 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

The bills only traded back because they thought their guy would be available at 2.01. 

 

That tells me they want to take a guy that most people didn't mock in the first round. So who could that be ? 

 

Is it possible the bills loved a guy like Ricky Pearsall, and thought no way someone would take him in the first? 

 

What if the bills shot themselves in the foot?

 

Unless the bills trade down again, why risk losing out on your guy just to gain a better draft position in round 3?

 

The draft is like gambling.  You play the probabilities and hope the cards come up right.  

[Gonzonzo]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

WGR was reporting immediately after 28 that they were trying to trade back again.  So, unless the player they wanted was Worthy, the picks from 28-31 didn't affect them.

 

Now, did someone get taken before 28 that made them trade back, possibly

 

Do you think the bills asked the chiefs which player they would select before making the trade?

I don't know how this point of exchanges works, if only picks are exchanged or if the teams decide who they will choose.

[Virgil]

9 minutes ago, Gonzonzo said:

 

Do you think the bills asked the chiefs which player they would select before making the trade?

I don't know how this point of exchanges works, if only picks are exchanged or if the teams decide who they will choose.

I’ve always wondered about that.  From everything I’ve heard, no.  

[Boatdrinks]

16 minutes ago, Gonzonzo said:

 

Do you think the bills asked the chiefs which player they would select before making the trade?

I don't know how this point of exchanges works, if only picks are exchanged or if the teams decide who they will choose.

You always hear that teams are charged a premium for QB trade ups. Is that a myth or do teams inquire about who is being selected ? Or do they just not make the deal if there’s a chance it’s a player they want ? Probably the latter I guess , but it seems implied that teams know who is being selected. 

[BCAS Baritone]

7 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I’ve always wondered about that.  From everything I’ve heard, no.  

From what I've heard, yes.  Beane says he did have to tell Jax that Kincaid was the guy they were picking.  It's probably what happens at minute 13 or 14 of the clock.  Before that it's just general position stuff.  But the final Q is name the player - and the etiquette would be if you turn down the deal at that point, it's because that's the guy you are picking and you go ahead and do it.

 

[Process]

You don't trade down 5 spots if you love a guy. You take him. 

 

They clearly did not think that highly of the guys that went 28-32. 

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

The bills only traded back because they thought their guy would be available at 2.01. 

 

That tells me they want to take a guy that most people didn't mock in the first round. So who could that be ? 

 

Is it possible the bills loved a guy like Ricky Pearsall, and thought no way someone would take him in the first? 

 

What if the bills shot themselves in the foot?

 

Unless the bills trade down again, why risk losing out on your guy just to gain a better draft position in round 3?

Bills did NOT trade back with the notion there was only one guy they wanted.  You don’t go back 4 spots if there is a risk of losing the one guy you want in this range.  
 

So sorry, but this thread is a waste of time.

[Awwufelloff]

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

If the Bills loved Ricky Pearsell they would've taken Ricky Pearsell at #28.  If you love a guy you don't trade back four spots and hold your breath hoping he falls to you.  

They must have not loved anyone at 32 then since they went back to 33. Thinking another trade back using this logic?

[CNYfan]

3 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

They must have not loved anyone at 32 then since they went back to 33. Thinking another trade back using this logic?

Not too far.  The only guy that could keep them there is probably Dejean.  But there is a nice grouping of players available, no edge rushers but nice IOL, DBs and WRs

[518Buffalo]

I doubt it. I don't think the Chiefs wanting Worthy or the Panthers wanting Legette was a surprise, so if Beane coveted either of those guys he would have taken them. Maybe Pearsall was a surprise but I don't believe they brought him in for a visit

[Big Turk]

8 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

The bills only traded back because they thought their guy would be available at 2.01. 

 

That tells me they want to take a guy that most people didn't mock in the first round. So who could that be ? 

 

Is it possible the bills loved a guy like Ricky Pearsall, and thought no way someone would take him in the first? 

 

What if the bills shot themselves in the foot?

 

Unless the bills trade down again, why risk losing out on your guy just to gain a better draft position in round 3?

 

No, what it says is that Beane was being honest when he said they really didn't have 28 first round grades.

 

So why take a 2nd round graded player in the first round when you can get extra picks?

 

Clearly they were not as high on Worthy and Legette as many others were/are and they didn't see someone worth moving up to go get...perhaps BTJ was the last WR they would have been willing to trade up for and he was taken too high.

Edited April 26 by Big Turk

[harmonkillebrew]

I think they like Troy Franklin and think he'll be available in mid-2nd.  They'll probably trade back again.

 

It's risky assuming others don't like the same guy.  At some point you just have to make your pick and not try to squeeze all the value you can out of where you pick him.

 

[Beast]

The OP’s scenario certainly is very possible.

[bigK14094]

Cooper DeJean  2.1 imho

[ColoradoBills]

10 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

The bills only traded back because they thought their guy would be available at 2.01. 

 

That tells me they want to take a guy that most people didn't mock in the first round. So who could that be ? 

 

Is it possible the bills loved a guy like Ricky Pearsall, and thought no way someone would take him in the first? 

 

What if the bills shot themselves in the foot?

 

Unless the bills trade down again, why risk losing out on your guy just to gain a better draft position in round 3?

 

What if everything you stated is not true and just speculation?

Without seeing Beane's board none of us know exactly why.

[mjt328]

If you listen to everything Brandon Beane says (and for a GM, he's usually pretty honest) in all his press conferences, you can get a pretty good idea what is going on.

 

1)  He didn't have a lot of 1st Round grades this year.  Although he won't say it explicitly, it's pretty clear they were all long gone by Pick #28.

 

2)  He sees a lot of value in the 2nd-3rd Rounds this year, and thinks that's the place to load up.  He really didn't want to part with their 2nd Rounder.

 

3)  He was also ticked off at the NFL for taking away his 3rd Round comp pick, and was dead set on getting it back.

 

4)  None of the players left on their board stood out enough to really care about moving down 4-5 spots.  

 

5)  Moving back 15-20 spots was too much.  So if they go back again from 33, I only expect it to be a couple slots.

 

6)  History also shows that if 1-2 players are on their board, he is not shy about trading to move up.  And he won't trade down to risk losing them.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

If you listen to everything Brandon Beane says (and for a GM, he's usually pretty honest) in all his press conferences, you can get a pretty good idea what is going on.

 

1)  He didn't have a lot of 1st Round grades this year.  Although he won't say it explicitly, it's pretty clear they were all long gone by Pick #28.

 

2)  He sees a lot of value in the 2nd-3rd Rounds this year, and thinks that's the place to load up.  He really didn't want to part with their 2nd Rounder.

 

3)  He was also ticked off at the NFL for taking away his 3rd Round comp pick, and was dead set on getting it back.

 

4)  None of the players left on their board stood out enough to really care about moving down 4-5 spots.  

 

5)  Moving back 15-20 spots was too much.  So if they go back again from 33, I only expect it to be a couple slots.

 

6)  History also shows that if 1-2 players are on their board, he is not shy about trading to move up.  And he won't trade down to risk losing them.

 

 

 

Exactly how I see it.  Really hope he hits on his Day 2 picks tonight!

[BigAl2526]

13 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

The bills only traded back because they thought their guy would be available at 2.01. 

 

That tells me they want to take a guy that most people didn't mock in the first round. So who could that be ? 

 

Is it possible the bills loved a guy like Ricky Pearsall, and thought no way someone would take him in the first? 

 

What if the bills shot themselves in the foot?

 

Unless the bills trade down again, why risk losing out on your guy just to gain a better draft position in round 3?

It tells me they didn't think the two Xaviers were decent values at the spots where they would have had to take them.  Beane is very cognizant of value, especially in the first round.  I won't know until this evening if they think there is a WR worthy of the 33rd spot in the draft. 

[NewEra]

We be sad 😢