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The Saints’ NFL salary cap doom spiral, explained

The Saints are in NFL salary cap hell, with no way out.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2024/2/23/24080361/new-orleans-saints-salary-cap-hell-situation-explained-nfl-rules

 

It is often said there is no real salary cap in NFL and that it may be true but the salary cap becomes a low ceiling for teams which over due it.

 

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New Orleans has 55 players under contract for the 2024 season, plus they will need to pay their NFL Draft picks, plus fill out their roster with role players and depth. In the offseason, only the top 51 contracts count but by the start of the regular season, all 53 players on the roster plus the practice squad and reserve lists combined will all need to be under the cap.

 

The Saints are going to need to hit the restructure button on a bunch of players. Again.

 

I wonder when New Orleans starts trading picks for future picks just so they can have less to pay now.

 

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The funny thing about this is that you read the doom and gloom of that article and the fact is:

 

2024 New Orleans Saints - 36m Over the Cap

 

2024 Buffalo Bills - 41m Over the Cap

 

But the big difference is we have the core pieces of a Contender in place. They have a terrible team to begin with and have to tear it down even more.

 

Plus side, it's not like they're going to get much worse.

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5 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

The funny thing about this is that you read the doom and gloom of that article and the fact is:

 

2024 New Orleans Saints - 36m Over the Cap

 

2024 Buffalo Bills - 41m Over the Cap

 

But the big difference is we have the core pieces of a Contender in place. They have a terrible team to begin with and have to tear it down even more.

 

Plus side, it's not like they're going to get much worse.

The big differences, the bills have a franchise quarterback with a contract that is structured so that they can continue to restructure for cap relief

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7 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

The funny thing about this is that you read the doom and gloom of that article and the fact is:

 

2024 New Orleans Saints - 36m Over the Cap

 

2024 Buffalo Bills - 41m Over the Cap

 

But the big difference is we have the core pieces of a Contender in place. They have a terrible team to begin with and have to tear it down even more.

 

Plus side, it's not like they're going to get much worse.

Thats after the Saints did a lot of restructuring. Bills haven’t started yet.

 

The key to pushing cap back is doing it with under 30 players that are good.

 

Bills are in good shape moving forward.

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I don't know how the Saints fully get out of this situation. Seems like a perpetual motion machine of salary.

 

I can see them trading players away for next to nothing in return and as others said, trading draft picks away so you don't have to pay players.

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5 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

Team needs a hard reset. They can post 6-1 cut a few guys and get under the cap and begin the rebuild

I assume that you’re picking out guys like Von Miller Tavius White as these post June for cuts
 

But if we cut them now, they end up counting towards the cap in a big way and we are still in our Super Bowl window, so why would we do that Von Miller’s case he’s like one of the few at his position that we even have in the contract

 

We’re not gonna drastically change this team they’re consistently winning their division, and being one of the top five teams in the NFL

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31 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:

How did the saints get this way when they’re just an average team 

They backloaded contracts while they had Brees to try and get a SB win. Now he is gone and their window officially closed. They’re probably going to have to suck for 2+ years to clear these bad contracts and rebuild

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18 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I assume that you’re picking out guys like Von Miller Tavius White as these post June for cuts
 

But if we cut them now, they end up counting towards the cap in a big way and we are still in our Super Bowl window, so why would we do that Von Miller’s case he’s like one of the few at his position that we even have in the contract

 

We’re not gonna drastically change this team they’re consistently winning their division, and being one of the top five teams in the NFL

This thread is about the saints. It’s pretty crystal clear in the title 

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1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

If Michael Thomas is cut, I wonder what his market value is?  Could be an intriguing option

31 years old, constantly injured, and has done nothing in the NFL in the last four years. Very intriguing 🤣

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3 hours ago, Bills!Win! said:

How did the saints get this way when they’re just an average team 

Because when Sean Payton left the front office and coaches didn’t want to take their medicine with a rebuild and made wild decisions that should be reserved for teams with at least a chance to compete. 
 

they continue To do so 

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2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Thats after the Saints did a lot of restructuring. Bills haven’t started yet.

 

The key to pushing cap back is doing it with under 30 players that are good.

 

Bills are in good shape moving forward.

I’ll believe it when I see it…

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11 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

And every team that has a franchise QB in the league does it

Yup - the issue isn’t doing it with Josh Allen. The problem is knowing carr isn’t the guy but restructuring him.

 

now his cap hit for 2025 is 50m with 40m in dead money - for a guy you don’t want. 
 

he’s almost 30m in dead money to cut the following year now too

 

they pushed chips in on a backup rb that’s going to cost them $5m this year. While taysom is a 15m player that’s basically a backup rb and wr4 at this point and kamara is a $19m hit. Think about that rb room at a $40m… is the problem that they restructure guys or that they created THAT situation?

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1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

I’ll believe it when I see it…

You can see it. Look at the contracts. Allen, Diggs, White, and Miller eat the majority of the future cap. Allen will get an extension, which will lower his cap hits significantly for many years. Diggs, White, and Miller will likely be off the roster by 2026.

 

Ideally you replace Diggs with a rookie contract over the next 2 drafts. WR1 is the position I’m worried about replacing over the next 2 years. They really have to hit on a WR this year or we might be trying to find one in free agency or trade and that will cost a lot of cap plus draft picks if we trade for 1.

Edited by Buffalo_Stampede
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This is all still a carryover from when Brees was there and they were contending.

 

If they would have been smart, they would have blown up themselves last year, fix the cap problems by resetting themselves and get the #1 pick in the draft....

-------------------------------2 separate thoughts--------------

Carr, towel boy in cleveland, and denver's terrible QB they benched last year were all traded for... hahahahahahaha AND they got PAID!!!

 

The NFL is filled with a bunch of idiots. :)

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Meh. I think the Saints did the right thing. They kicked the can relentlessly to load up for a last go with Drew Brees and Sean Payton and but for the worst non-call of all time that might have worked out. It didn't.

 

They have prolonged it by continuing to try and win post Brees in comparison to New England who that first year post Brady had a "take our medicine" year and then rebounded when Mac was a rookie, spent a bit in FA, put some pieces around him and won 10 games and made the playoffs - even though that relative success couldn't be sustained (mainly because they have drafted so poorly). But I sort of defend the Saints in doing that because they were in a division that, especially this year, looked very winnable. I still think the division is attainable for them with a good season and they still have some talented players so I'd run it back once more. But if they fail to make the post season again then next spring is a take your medicine season and you move on from Lattimore, Kamara, Ramcyzk, Jordan etc and it probably means the team you field in 2025 is going to be in contention for the #1 pick. Which just so happens to coincide with the point at which you can move on from Derek Carr and pick your QB of the future in the 2026 draft. It's likely your 2026 team will still suck a bit because you will be paying money to people who no longer play for you but as we have seen with Cincinnati and to a lesser extent Jacksonville in recent years the "suck, get your QB, suck again and load up" model is one that can pay some dividends. 

 

I understand those who would not have done the Carr thing and would have started taking their medicine already. But the NFL is an entertainment product. You have to keep the fans coming and when you have a shot to win and make the playoffs you should try and win. It would have been different if they were in a division with the Eagles or the Cowboys... but Brady had gone, there was no super team in the NFC South and nobody expected Baker to bounce back as he did. So I think trying to win was the right move. 

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19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I understand those who would not have done the Carr thing and would have started taking their medicine already. But the NFL is an entertainment product. You have to keep the fans coming and when you have a shot to win and make the playoffs you should try and win. It would have been different if they were in a division with the Eagles or the Cowboys... but Brady had gone, there was no super team in the NFC South and nobody expected Baker to bounce back as he did. So I think trying to win was the right move. 

 

Some thought Baker was better than shown then the slime bog called Browns but the baggage was enough they should have started bailing the boat last year regardless.  They are like a person borrowing from one high percentage credit card to pay off others,  f they continue like this the New Orleans Saints will be first team unable to fill roster.

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9 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

The funny thing about this is that you read the doom and gloom of that article and the fact is:

 

2024 New Orleans Saints - 36m Over the Cap

 

2024 Buffalo Bills - 41m Over the Cap

 

But the big difference is we have the core pieces of a Contender in place. They have a terrible team to begin with and have to tear it down even more.

 

Plus side, it's not like they're going to get much worse.


They got there the same way the Bills are getting there, always mortgaging the future to pay for this year because they had a shot.  It all started when they had Breese, then they thought they had enough to win the division, then they could get Carr and have another shot.  This is the reason I say, take the medicine once in a while.  I’d take it now, the current roster only has a shot because of JA, it will have pretty much the same shot of you cut all the fat and set yourself up for the future.  Right now, KC runs the AFC, you can beat up on the Jets and Patriots all you want, it won’t matter in the end.

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6 minutes ago, Punching Bag said:

 

Some thought Baker was better than shown then the slime bog called Browns but the baggage was enough they should have started bailing the boat last year regardless.  They are like a person borrowing from one high percentage credit card to pay off others,  f they continue like this the New Orleans Saints will be first team unable to fill roster.

 

I thought Baker was better than the Browns too, but in the same NFC South the year before he lost the starting job with the Panthers. His stock was at an all time low last offseason. I'm happy for him he had the year he did, I've always thought Baker was a decent QB. But still on paper that division was wide open for the Saints to win last year and I'd have made the same decision they did in terms of going for it. They lost out on H2Hs with the Buccs. I'd go again this year because the Buccs will likely lose some pieces too and then at that point if you are not in position I'd tear down next spring. 

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9 hours ago, NoSaint said:


the issue isn’t the overall strategy

 

the issue is doing it with bad players to go sign more bad players

This. If a team has an owner who has cash and is willing to spend it, then it is a sustainable model. But you have to spend on good players and then get out of their contracts by the time they aren’t anymore. 

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14 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

The funny thing about this is that you read the doom and gloom of that article and the fact is:

 

2024 New Orleans Saints - 36m Over the Cap

 

2024 Buffalo Bills - 41m Over the Cap

 

But the big difference is we have the core pieces of a Contender in place. They have a terrible team to begin with and have to tear it down even more.

 

Plus side, it's not like they're going to get much worse.

 

And they have a ton of space already tied up in considerably large restructures.  Buffalo has 20M in restructure bonuses, while NO has 63M.  Their 5th highest cap hit is taysom hill.  NO only have 2.8M in dead cap, but it doesn't include Peat who has 13.6M in a structured void hit.  Buffalo has 8.8M in dead cap including void years for Floyd, Jones, and Settle with another 3.8 to Hyde.  

 

They're also in a tough spot as the only way to get out of some of this is extensions - and they don't really have anyone you'd want to add years to.  Lattimore is 28 and has missed a full seasons worth of games over the last 2.  Kamara is 29 and misses time every year.  Jordan and Davis are both 35. Thomas has a long injury history and isn't worth the contract he's on at this point. 

 

They have just been kicking some of these contract cans down the road for like 9 years now and you hit a point where you have a very old team (who isn't even particularly good), and you're kind of forced to take your medicine.  

 

Buffalo is not in a similar scenario yet, nor do I expect them to be.  The key is to find contributors on rookie deals - and they have added quite a few in the last couple drafts.  The next key is to not necessarily overpay players on their 2nd deals (some will walk), identify the players you want to make long-term commitments to, and to continue to re-stock and replace as you go.  

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