2024 WR Draft Class

[DJB]

The good news is that this WR class is stacked and there will be a very good prospect when we are on the board 

 

My worry is that we pass on WR round 1 because Beane thinks the depth is great and we take him in round 2.

 

We need an impact guy even if it’s a slight reach based on BPA when we are on the clock. 

[Warcodered]

18 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Everybody knows that means nothing. If it was Beane's goal to go out and get a #1 receiver he'd make it happen.  I don't think it's happening but if it was he'd find a way.  

It absolutely does mean something, maybe he could find a way to do it, but it would limit everything else he could do.

[Brand J]

Just now, DJB said:

The good news is that this WR class is stacked and there will be a very good prospect when we are on the board 

 

My worry is that we pass on WR round 1 because Beane thinks the depth is great and we take him in round 2.

 

We need an impact guy even if it’s a slight reach based on BPA when we are on the clock. 

Remember, it’s not about where a player is taken, but rather who it is. Detroit’s impact receiver Amon-Ra St Brown went in the 4th. The 49ers Deebo Samuel? He went in that second round you worry about. There’s so much luck involved with these picks, a guy could pass every single test, athleticism, size, productive college career, and then can get to the pros and be a dud. By all accounts, it looks like Marvin Harrison Jr will be a beast at the next level, but for every Calvin Johnson, a Charles Rogers lurks 😅

 

I won’t get too hung up on where Beane takes a receiver within those first 5 rounds as long as he takes two of them. Preferably higher since the chances of hitting are greater, but I won’t worry one way or another. Let’s see what happens when they step on the field.

[SoonerBillsFan]

38 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Those 3 6ths might get you to the top of the 5th round.  The 2 5th rounders PLUS the 3 6ths might get an early 4th round pick.

After I saw the chart I agree. 

[34-78-83]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I don't think he is going to run in the 4.2s but he is legitimately fast. He is more a build up speed guy so I don't think the 40 necessarily will showcase how fast he is. But he is going to run plenty fast enough to be legit size / speed prospect. 

 

I'm super high on him. 

You can see his speed on the field pretty clearly. He's legit fast. Pulls away from db's at nearly every opportunity to.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

Everybody knows that means nothing. If it was Beane's goal to go out and get a #1 receiver he'd make it happen.  I don't think it's happening but if it was he'd find a way.  

 

Paying a FA #1 WR will cost in the $20M+/year range.

 

1 hour ago, CSBill said:

What or who is MHJ ???

 

Marvin Harrison Junior.

[Bill51390]

My top three for where we are picking would be

Ladd McConkey

Keon Coleman

Xavier Legette

 

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, Bill51390 said:

My top three for where we are picking would be

Ladd McConkey

Keon Coleman

Xavier Legette

 

Not sold on Coleman, but the other two are among my favorites. Don't sleep on McConkey. He's not just a slot receiver.

[Billsfan4588]

The question is: do you draft potential future #1 to replace diggs (do it all prospect) or do you draft a deep threat? The deep threat would seem like a "need" with davis likely departing in free agency, but with the way teams play vs Allen, the deep shot is rarely there, if ever. I'm stuck on prospects myself,  will be doing more digging in future weeks!

[BBFL]

The more I watch of Thomas Jr. I feel he’d be the guaranteed #2 or #3 in the class pre-combine if Nabers wasn’t on the same team…

 

These other 3 are very intriguing also:

Franklin (Oregon)

Mitchell (Texas)

Leggette (SC)

 

With Shakir I think you have to pass on Georgia’s McConkey. Very similar to 2Pac. Can play anywhere but best suited to a slot/inside role due to size and initial burst. 

[Bill51390]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan4588 said:

The question is: do you draft potential future #1 to replace diggs (do it all prospect) or do you draft a deep threat? The deep threat would seem like a "need" with davis likely departing in free agency, but with the way teams play vs Allen, the deep shot is rarely there, if ever. I'm stuck on prospects myself,  will be doing more digging in future weeks!

You draft looking for a future #1, not just someone who can stretch the field. Someone who can generate RAC is what I’m looking for. 

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

I actually read 4.22.  But I was mostly talking about his 22.3 MPH last season.

You read that he ran a 4.22 or that the combine record is 4.22?  Link?
 

I’ve scored the interwebs and haven’t seen anyone saying he’s run a 4.22 before.  4.29 and his MPH is the only thing I’ve seen

59 minutes ago, BBFL said:

The more I watch of Thomas Jr. I feel he’d be the guaranteed #2 or #3 in the class pre-combine if Nabers wasn’t on the same team…

 

These other 3 are very intriguing also:

Franklin (Oregon)

Mitchell (Texas)

Leggette (SC)

 

With Shakir I think you have to pass on Georgia’s McConkey. Very similar to 2Pac. Can play anywhere but best suited to a slot/inside role due to size and initial burst. 

Except he doesn’t really run anything other than deep patterns.  Like nothing at all. Maybe he can learn….but I find it strange that they didn’t have him do it at all in college.

 

i do LOVE his deep ball skills set 

 

I agree with the rest of the post- but I’d be happy with Mcconkey in rd 2.  
 

what are your thoughts on Tez Walker?  And how would you compare him to Thomas Jr

Edited January 28 by NewEra

[BBFL]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You read that he ran a 4.22 or that the combine record is 4.22?  Link?
 

I’ve scored the interwebs and haven’t seen anyone saying he’s run a 4.22 before.  4.29 and his MPH is the only thing I’ve seen

Except he doesn’t really run anything other than deep patterns.  Like nothing at all. Maybe he can learn….but I find it strange that they didn’t have him do it at all in college.

 

i do LOVE his deep ball skills set 

I get that. Which is exactly why I’m liking it. We struggled with the deep passes being consistent in our offense this season. 

[Doc]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You read that he ran a 4.22 or that the combine record is 4.22?  Link?
 

I’ve scored the interwebs and haven’t seen anyone saying he’s run a 4.22 before.  4.29 and his MPH is the only thing I’ve seen

 

Yeah it was Combine record.  Again I'll take even 4.3s.

[Billever76]

On 1/27/2024 at 2:32 PM, Aussie Joe said:

I love him too… likely to go in the Top 12 … we will be looking up waving him goodbye ,,,

 

 

Probably … Beane is already looking at their pick at the end of the third to move up 3 or 4 spots …there will be 3 or 4 WR left but there will be one he loves …

 

If he gets it right then all good… but this is one year they could use that third round pick to find another contributor..

 

We better take a wr round 1 

[Maine-iac]

..... because if you have a fast 40 time you will be a great WR?  So many great receivers that have nothing to do with being picked in the first round or running a 4.2 40.  Everyone trying to Moneyball their way to a SB.  Ironically the GM in Moneyball is named Beane. 

[34-78-83]

McConkey just not an X or boundary wr in the NFL. Only for that reason am I not high on drafting him. Give me Legette, Franklin, Thomas, Worthy where we are picking and I’d be thrilled.

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

McConkey just not an X or boundary wr in the NFL. Only for that reason am I not high on drafting him. Give me Legette, Franklin, Thomas, Worthy where we are picking and I’d be thrilled.

28.

Xavier Legette

WR South Carolina

60.

Malachi Corley

WR Western Kentucky

[JaCrispy]

Leggett reminds me of Deebo Samuel with his size and speed…would love to see that type player on the Bills…

[The Jokeman]

4 hours ago, Billsfan4588 said:

The question is: do you draft potential future #1 to replace diggs (do it all prospect) or do you draft a deep threat? The deep threat would seem like a "need" with davis likely departing in free agency, but with the way teams play vs Allen, the deep shot is rarely there, if ever. I'm stuck on prospects myself,  will be doing more digging in future weeks!

You might get both in Troy Franklin. 

[Chicken Boo]

6 hours ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

Think he might jump up boards after the combine. He's clear #4 after the consensus top 3 to me

 

That's my fear. 

[Drew21PA]

Worthy is gonna end up being the best wr in the draft class

 

 

[JaCrispy]

32 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

Worthy is gonna end up being the best wr in the draft class

 

 

I could see this…

 

I want one of…

 

Nabers

Leggett

Franklin

Worthy

[OldTimer1960]

12 hours ago, Drew21PA said:

Worthy is gonna end up being the best wr in the draft class

 

 

If he can avoid injury - he is extremely thin for a 6’1” WR.  Very fast and agile for sure.

[Billsatlastin2018]

On 1/27/2024 at 3:10 PM, starrymessenger said:

True he's not a 4:3s guy but given his size

SIZE… the ONLY criteria, given the depth of this field, for 17 throwing to him in November- January in wind, in snow, in rain, in sleet, in Buffalo!

 

6’3 or above.

 

NO, tiny SEC smurfs… who fade in the cold, nor can they be seen.

[SoCal Deek]

Can any of these guys actually catch a contested ball? Thats pretty much my only criteria. 

[bills6969]

I like Worthy a lot.  He’s also a very good punt returner.

 

assuming Thomas Jr is gone, my top 3 are:

 

1 Worthy

2 Franklin

3 Lagette

[GASabresIUFan]

19 hours ago, BBFL said:

With Shakir I think you have to pass on Georgia’s McConkey. Very similar to 2Pac. Can play anywhere but best suited to a slot/inside role due to size and initial burst. 

Then you haven’t watched McConkey play very much.  
 

Ladd’s size is nearly identical to Stef Diggs.  Ladd has excellent hands, good speed and run excellent routes.  I fact I think he’s faster than Diggs. He can lineup and be effective anywhere.  Diggs will be gone in 2 years.  Ladd would be an excellent replacement.  
 

That doesn’t mean we don’t need bigger receivers.  We do.  AD Mitchell is a great combo of size and speed.  I watched AD at UGA with Ladd and they are great combo.  Add them to Shakir, Diggs, and Kincaid and defenses will have no one they can double team or try to scheme to take away.  
 

 

[Ga boy]

13 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

I could see this…

 

I want one of…

 

Nabers

Leggett

Franklin

Worthy

Add Keon Coleman.  No human being will push him around.

[MrEpsYtown]

See I made a joke about McConkey being popular on the board and no one seemed to get it besides @Clyde Smith and @DrDawkinstein

 

But here we are. Getting ready to hear about him a lot this offseason. Cooper DeJean too...and of course Ricky Pearsall. 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Hate making these comparisons but I watch Worthy and see Tyreek. 
 

Haven’t done a deep dive yet, but would be OK with Worthy or Coleman in the first round.
 

On the fence about Leggett there. 

[MrEpsYtown]

I typically am a height-weight-speed type of guy, but I don't care anymore. I just want smart people (running the right routes) and blazing fast. Speed kills and we have none. 

[Brandon]

7 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

Add Keon Coleman.  No human being will push him around.

 

But can he get any separation at all?

[Brandon]

21 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

I like Worthy a lot.  He’s also a very good punt returner.

 

assuming Thomas Jr is gone, my top 3 are:

 

1 Worthy

2 Franklin

3 Lagette

 

The more I watch,  the higher I rate Worthy.  The weight is a concern,  though,  if 170-ish is true.  I also suspect he'll come in at 5-10 or 5'11,  but that doesn't bother me as much.  Speed, short area burst and separation would be my priority.  

[DrDawkinstein]

17 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

See I made a joke about McConkey being popular on the board and no one seemed to get it besides @Clyde Smith and @DrDawkinstein

 

But here we are. Getting ready to hear about him a lot this offseason. Cooper DeJean too...and of course Ricky Pearsall. 

 

"Lunch Pail" players

[Ga boy]

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

 

But can he get any separation at all?

Yes.  Against serious competition  - LSU, SMU, VT.  Mean stuff arm.  Kick returner.  He will likely be there late first.

 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Can any of these guys actually catch a contested ball? Thats pretty much my only criteria. 

I put together a spreadsheet of many WR metrics, including stats on their contested ball abilities.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit?usp=sharing

 

Contested catch % tends to not be very stable, so hard to tell really. For example, these guys were all 50% or higher on contested catches this season (bolded guys that are considered to have at least a remote chance of going in the 1st round):

• Rome Odunze, Washington
• Malik Washington, Virginia
• Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Georgia
• Luke McCaffrey, Rice
• Tez Walker, North Carolina
• Tory Horton, Colorado State
• Javon Baker, Central Florida
• Jermaine Burton, Alabama
• Ainias Smith, Texas A&M
• Bryson Nesbit, North Carolina
• Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington
• Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
• Ricky Pearsall, Florida
• Dominic Lovett, Georgia
• Zakhari Franklin, Ole Miss (barely played this season, but was good at it the prior year)

But of those 14, only 3 of them even had 20+ contested targets; it's all small sample size stuff. Also of those 14, only 6 of them managed to catch 50% or higher the prior season:

• Luke McCaffrey
• Javon Baker
• Jermaine Burton
• Bryson Nesbit
• Ja'Lynn Polk
• Brian Thomas Jr.

There's also always debate about whether or not that's really something to be prioritized in the draft; it's great if they can make contested catches, but if they're being forced to make those catches in college, it's probably a sign that they'll struggle to get open in the pros. Of the 14 listed above, I would say Rosemy-Jacksaint and Luke McCaffrey should potentially be red flagged for having a high % of their targets that are contested. Tez Walker and Ja'Lynn Polk are borderline red flags IMO.

 

The consensus top 2 WRs in the class, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, were both over 50% a year ago but were in the 40s this season. Keon Coleman was over 60% a year ago but down to 33% this year. Harrison and Coleman are potential red flags for relying too much on contested targets as well. Nobody relied on contested targets more this past season than Coleman, but he was okay in this regard the year before when he played for Michigan State. Harrison has been in the orange both of the last two years (red being bad, green good, yellow neutral).

[SoCal Deek]

50 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I put together a spreadsheet of many WR metrics, including stats on their contested ball abilities.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit?usp=sharing

 

Contested catch % tends to not be very stable, so hard to tell really. For example, these guys were all 50% or higher on contested catches this season (bolded guys that are considered to have at least a remote chance of going in the 1st round):

• Rome Odunze, Washington
• Malik Washington, Virginia
• Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Georgia
• Luke McCaffrey, Rice
• Tez Walker, North Carolina
• Tory Horton, Colorado State
• Javon Baker, Central Florida
• Jermaine Burton, Alabama
• Ainias Smith, Texas A&M
• Bryson Nesbit, North Carolina
• Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington
• Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
• Ricky Pearsall, Florida
• Dominic Lovett, Georgia
• Zakhari Franklin, Ole Miss (barely played this season, but was good at it the prior year)

But of those 14, only 3 of them even had 20+ contested targets; it's all small sample size stuff. Also of those 14, only 6 of them managed to catch 50% or higher the prior season:

• Luke McCaffrey
• Javon Baker
• Jermaine Burton
• Bryson Nesbit
• Ja'Lynn Polk
• Brian Thomas Jr.

There's also always debate about whether or not that's really something to be prioritized in the draft; it's great if they can make contested catches, but if they're being forced to make those catches in college, it's probably a sign that they'll struggle to get open in the pros. Of the 14 listed above, I would say Rosemy-Jacksaint and Luke McCaffrey should potentially be red flagged for having a high % of their targets that are contested. Tez Walker and Ja'Lynn Polk are borderline red flags IMO.

 

The consensus top 2 WRs in the class, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, were both over 50% a year ago but were in the 40s this season. Keon Coleman was over 60% a year ago but down to 33% this year. Harrison and Coleman are potential red flags for relying too much on contested targets as well. Nobody relied on contested targets more this past season than Coleman, but he was okay in this regard the year before when he played for Michigan State. Harrison has been in the orange both of the last two years (red being bad, green good, yellow neutral).

Thanks! Well done. It feels like Coleman is right around the skill set the Bills are looking for and who’ll be there when we pick…..but I’m far from an expert on the topic. 

[DCOrange]

Dane Brugler (The Athletic's draft guru) posted a Senior Bowl preview including a section on the WRs. Some cliffnotes:

• Mentions how Tank Dell and Jayden Reed dominated the Senior Bowl last year and went on to have successful rookie campaigns. Also mentioned Michael Wilson and Puka Nacua consistently making plays and the latter in particular obviously had a great rookie season.
• Malachi Corley is considered the best senior WR in the draft and some Deebo Samuel-type skills. Keeping an eye on how he tracks deep passes at the Senior Bowl because he didn't do it much in college.
• Ladd McConkey and Roman Wilson are two that he expects to stand out in practices; currently viewed as Day 2 prospects, undersized but "big time  speed and an understanding of how to leverage that speed to get open".
• Says most NFL teams currently have a 3rd round grade on Xavier Legette; teams will be watching to see if he can create separation at the top of routes at the Senior Bowl.
• Compares Jacob Cowing Tank Dell due to similar size and blazing speed.
• Luke McCaffrey is one of the best in the draft at playing through contact.
• Tez Walker is a likely Day 2 pick thanks to his speed and ball skills.
• Ricky Pearsall has great hands.
• "I could keep going (about the WRs) but the word count for the article would get out of hand". Seems like he really loves this class.

Behind a pay wall, but if you're subscribed/have other means of getting access, here's the link:

https://theathletic.com/5228871/2024/01/29/nfl-draft-2024-senior-bowl-quarterbacks/?access_token=595014

 

[boyst]

16 hours ago, Drew21PA said:

Worthy is gonna end up being the best wr in the draft class

 

 

MHJ will have a career.

 

But look back at the 2014 draft:

Cody Latimor

Sammy Watkins

Mike Evans

Odell Beckham

Brandon Cooks

Kelvin Benjafat

Marquise Lee

Devin Street

Martvavius Bryant

Kevin Norwood

John Brown

Quincy Enunwa

Jordan Matthews

Davante Adams

Allen Robinson

Donte Montecrief

Jarvis Landry

 

Of those I would love Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews... then like 10 feet of separation: Odell Beckham, Latimor, Brown, Montcrief, Landry...