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What's Wrong With The Passing O?


Donuts and Doritos

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We are not scheming guys open well enough, and are emphasizing the wrong guys as targets at the wrong moments, that and the passing game is kinda predictable presently, and our #1&2 WRs are playing hurt, and the guy throwing the ball is as well playing hurt, the answers Lie in scheming receivers open for success, jmo. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited by Don Otreply
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5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Two things imo

 

Diggs is either aging before our eyes or carrying an injury

 

and like it or not we miss Dorsey


Agree about Diggs .. not so Dorsey…

 

But that doesn’t mean Brady is the man either … although as pointed out to me earlier … he has the tougher gig coming in mid season and having to take over Dorsey’s playbook 

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3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I believe he is playing with a semi-significant injury.

 

I really hope this is the case. Then at least there is hope for Diggs to return to form next year. My fear is that he has either lost some of his edge or his physical abilities have declined suddenly, or both.

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27 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

I think its Josh. Looks panicky in the pocket. Not going through his progression properly. From my untrained eye.

I don't see panic; I see someone who is not finding anyone open and running out of time. The Pats might have just been playing well, but I suspect we just don't have talent at receiver. Kincaid has good hands but is only ok at getting open. Knox and Davis don't separate. Sherfield and Harty are just warm bodies running around out there. Diggs is not himself; he's about the same as Shakir now. 

 

Adding that up, this is a pretty mediocre receiving corps for a playoff team. No difference makers. You see the results. 

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Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I really hope this is the case. Then at least there is hope for Diggs to return to form next year. My fear is that he has either lost some of his edge or his physical abilities have declined suddenly, or both.

I would not be betting on Diggs returning to top5ish receiver form personally 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah something is going on with his deep passes to Diggs specifically. He hit two to Davis last week and one to Kincaid today. Diggs I think it was the Jaguars in London the last time they connected on a deep pass. Their timing on the whole has been off for a couple months now.

I’m partial to the idea that Diggs is quiet quitting.

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Can almost guarantee Allen and Diggs are 

So upset they kept ***** up and playing bad and got him fired in the first place.

 

lol

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1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I would not be betting on Diggs returning to top5ish receiver form personally 

 

 

 

Beane has a history of betting on the most optimal possible scenario for offensive players. I hope he has learned something from his failures the past couple years and if anything over invests in the offense this offseason. The way he has treated the DL the past several years, I would love for him to do the same thing with WRs this offseason.

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23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Because Diggs just isn't very good right now. I see a lot of Bills fans are afraid to say it out loud. Everyone sees his production has gone down and is grasping for answers. The simplest answer is the correct one. I'm not sure there are 20 WRs he is out playing right now. It's a massive concern heading into the playoffs.


I think this is the biggest difference between this year and last year. Last year Diggs was playing at an all-pro type level. This year on the whole he’s playing as a middle of the pack #1 WR. Recently he has not even been that. Drops, not getting separation, not fighting for contested balls. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if we find out he’s injured and playing through it.

 

Gabe Davis is also somehow worse. I think Allen has stopped throwing it his way because bad things happen.

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7 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

We are not scheming guys open well enough, and are emphasizing the wrong guys as targets at the wrong moments, that and the passing game is kinda predictable presently, and our #1&2 WRs are playing hurt, and the guy throwing the ball is as well playing hurt, the answers Lie in scheming receivers open for success, jmo. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

I think this is probably right, but I'm not confident they know how to scheme receivers open.

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The only encouraging thing from the pass game to day was the ball thrown to Kincaid that was more than ten yards down field.  That dude should be running down the seams all game every game.  Let Knox, Shakir and Cook make the short yac  catches.  I don’t know what’s wrong with Diggs and Allen.  Josh missed him on that wide open deep ball and he teams have been keeping him from working the middle of the field which has been his bread and butter.  Hopefully they come up with some type of solution quickly because playoffs start in seven days.

Edited by Mynamemike
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3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Beane has a history of betting on the most optimal possible scenario for offensive players. I hope he has learned something from his failures the past couple years and if anything over invests in the offense this offseason. The way he has treated the DL the past several years, I would love for him to do the same thing with WRs this offseason.

Correct.

 

I think if you injected Beane with truth serum, he’d admit they intentionally skimped on the receiving weapons the last few seasons with hopes that Josh improving + Gabe improving would be enough. 
 

The lesson from 13 seconds was not, “shore up the defense.” 
 

It was “go all in on offense.”

4 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 


Is this the same gut feeling you had on the Kincaid amber alert thread?

I didn’t have a gut feeling. He hadn’t had a big game in a while. I posted about it. Voila! Big game!

 

Joe Brady reads my stuff, clearly.

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4 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I think this is the biggest difference between this year and last year. Last year Diggs was playing at an all-pro type level. This year on the whole he’s playing as a middle of the pack #1 WR

 

It is for sure the biggest difference. Fans underestimate the trickle down effect of having top tier skill position talent. If a defense can just win all their 1v1 matchups without having to put themselves in conflict, it's incredibly difficult to make your offense work. It's like how a defense that can get consistent pressure rushing 4 has a massive advantage. Football is ultimately a game of numbers and leverage. We don't have any numbers advantages right now.

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At this point last year we had Diggs, Davis, McKenzie and Shakir. Beane had to go get Brown and Beasley because of the struggles. Now we have Diggs, Davis and Shakir.  Harty and Sherfield combined are less valuable than McKenzie alone at this point.  Beane cheaped out like he always does on offense. 

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1 minute ago, BananaB said:

At this point last year we had Diggs, Davis, McKenzie and Shakir. Beane had to go get Brown and Beasley because of the struggles. Now we have Diggs, Davis and Shakir.  Harty and Sherfield combined are less valuable than McKenzie alone at this point.  Beane cheaped out like he always does on offense. 

He didn’t cheap out. He overpaid for a total zero.

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13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I thought the one today had enough air under it tbh

 

Like I said earlier it's a very low margin for error pass because Diggs has average speed and average catch radius. You have to drop that pass in the bucket or else it's incomplete and if you underthrow it there's a chance it's picked. It would nice to see us hit a deep shot to Diggs one of these weeks but it's inherently low percentage. Personally I would just take those shot plays out of the playbook. Every wasted down creates a massive strain because, again, it's an inherently low margin for error offense.

 

Edited by HappyDays
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48 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

I think its Josh. Looks panicky in the pocket. Not going through his progression properly. From my untrained eye.

This. He’s been like this ALL season minus some stretches. Even raiders and wash. Panicky. Leaves pocket. And then is just taking WAY to long to make a decision and throw. 

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Josh’s mechanics have regressed this year. His footwork sucks, he throws off his back foot all the time, he’s not seeing the field and his accuracy blows.

 

I love him. Ride or die. He’s also the reason we’ve won 10 games.

 

It doesn’t help that his o-line is letting free rushers regularly, his receivers don’t separate, when they do they drop the ball,  his #1 has been MIA for 5 weeks, and most importantly his OC had 2 good games and now can’t pull a game plan out of his ass.

 

I have no idea what the plan is going forward. Become a run first team with Cook/Josh and play the short game? Go 5 wide and let Josh loose and start chucking it all over? 

 

Still think we crush Miami

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Like I said earlier it's a very low margin for error pass because Diggs has average speed and average catch radius. You have to drop that pass in the bucket or else it's incomplete and if you underthrow it there's a chance it's picked. It would nice to see us hit a deep shot to Diggs one of these weeks but it's inherently low percentage. Personally I would just take those shot plays out of the playbook. Every wasted down creates a massive strain because, again, it's an inherently low margin for error offense.

 


We have at least 3 INT on underthrown deep passes to Diggs. At this point it is much better to overthrow, he isn’t going to win the contested catch or draw DPI.

 

Have we even had a dpi in our favor on a deep pass this season? I can’t remember one, but I see them every week in other games.

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42 minutes ago, BlazinBill said:

We just need weapons- we keep swinging and missing with mediocre players based off salary cap - need to draft talent period - just need to make sure we hit on that talent

Yes well we hit on Kincaid. But he’s yet still not the focal point. Everyone is to blame. 

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41 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

They showed it on the telecast today

 

we are running it effectively since week 11 - changes the targets and the nunbers

 

 

josh had some terrible wr drops today so this game was closer than it should have been

 

 

LOTS of drops idk what was going on

Lots of drops and very few great catches.

 

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2 minutes ago, balln said:

Yes well we hit on Kincaid. But he’s yet still not the focal point. Everyone is to blame. 

 

Have to wonder if the timeout today - when the Bills went shotgun on 3rd (or was it 4th) and short, and McDermott then seemingly stopped play and asked for a change in call - is the moment he started wondering if Brady is the man.

 

Everything on offense is a shambles at the moment, and has been for much of the season. The reason is surely deeper than one player or co-ordinator.

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2 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Have we even had a dpi in our favor on a deep pass this season?

 

No, for some reason our WRs don't try to draw them. Underthrowing deep passes that the WR simply runs back into the DB for an easy penalty has been a surprisingly productive play for a lot of offenses over the past few years. I don't know why we are the only team to never take advantage of this. Diggs had one pass today that would have been a DPI if he had made an effort to come back and catch the ball, instead he just stood there and let the ball bounce off the DB's back. That's why I'm worried he has lost his edge. He is not playing with any kind of fire right now, seemingly just going through the motions.

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Because half the time they can’t catch the ball. And when they do catch it there’s not a lot of yac. Theres not enough of an explosive element in the offense. It peaked vs kc in the divisional and has never really been the same since. Beane has to hammer the offense this offseason by any means necessary. We don’t truly know yet if diggs is slowing down or if he’s actually hurt but either way hes 30 now. And he’s not done much of anything in 2 straight months

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1 hour ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

Passing O. has looked off ever since the Philly game (has actually looked off a lot of the season). Philly game is the last game w/ more than 1 passing TD.

 

What's the problem? (Is it Josh, Brady, the Playmakers or something else)? Here's the player game stats (in order of top catchers on the team this season):

 

Josh Allen:

                    Yds.      TD.    Int

NE.    15/30  169         0       1

LA.    15/21.  237.        1.       1

DAL.   7/15.     94.       1.       0

KC.   23/42.  233.       1.       1

PHIL 29/51.   339.       2.      1

 

1. Diggs:

                      Yds.       TD

NE.    4/7.       26.         0

LA.    5/8.       29.         0

DAL. 4/5.        48.         0

KC.   4/11.       24.         0

PHIL 6/11.       74.         1

 

2. Davis:

                      Yds.       TD

NE.    2/3.       21.         0

LA.    4/6.      130.        1

DAL.  0/1.          0.        0

KC.    0/2.         0.        0

PHIL  6/12.     105.       1

 

3. Kincaid:

                      Yds.       TD

NE.    4/7.       87.         0

LA.    1/2.         7.          0

DAL.  0/2.         0.         0

KC.    5/8.       21.         0

PHIL  5/6.       38.         0

 

4. Shakir:

                      Yds.       TD

NE.    4/4.       39.         0

LA.    3/3.       45.         0

DAL.  0/1.          0.         0

KC.     1/1.        12.         0

PHIL  3/5.       47.          0

 

5. Cook:

                      Yds.       TD

NE.    1/3.       -4.         0

LA.    0/0.         0.         0

DAL. 2/3.        42.         1

KC.    5/5.       83.         1

PHIL  6/7.        57.         0

 

6. Knox:

                      Yds.       TD

NE.    No stats registered

LA.    2/2.       26.         0

DAL.  No stats registered 

KC.    3/3.       36.         0

PHIL  Didn't play

 

Harty:  1 catch 25 yds KC game

Murray: 1 catch 21 yds KC game

             3 catch 18 yds Phil game

Sherfield: 1 catch 9 yds KC game

 

(Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills)

Now, I don't think this is the whole reason but there has been a noticable downtick in the passing game since Dawson Knox came back. The run game has surged. But I think having Kincaid on the field more helps the pass game.  

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47 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

We got some sugar high after Cowboys game and think were some ground and pound team

To be fair, we did not commit to the passing game with the RBs after they dropped a few.  The team seems to be not focused enough

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31 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I really hope this is the case. Then at least there is hope for Diggs to return to form next year. My fear is that he has either lost some of his edge or his physical abilities have declined suddenly, or both.

Remember Woods playing with a torn groin and Hogan playing with torn ligaments in his wrist in their contract years, and both injuries clearly affected their play in retrospect (ie, the one year in his entire career that Hogan had the drops). Yet the injuries were never reported, and both had surgery immediately after the season.

 

Also, Diggs is pulling himself out constantly, which is so against type that I believe it HAS to be an injury.

Edited by dave mcbride
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