What contract will AJ Epen$a get?

[Big Blitz]

A lot of focus on Davis - but what about AJ?

 

Is he as good as gone?  

 

We have a lot of D-line issues next year it looks like DE might be our biggest need.  
 

I’m not going to lose sleep over losing him but he’s become a great rotational piece a guy we drafted in the 2nd round.  

 

Also is Jones under contract?  Floyd?  They both UFAs?  
 

[C.Biscuit97]

I think he’s gone. He’s a tough guy to evaluate. I loved the pick but it took a while for him to become a legit starter and I’m not sure he is a total 3 down guy. He lacks burst so I don’t ever see him being a double digit sack guy.

 

ideally, he thrives in a rotation and he is really good in that role. I’m just not sure how much that is worth and it’s probably more than we want to pay.  Solid player in the Chris Kelsay (better) vein. 

[FireChans]

He’s as good as gone. Had his best year as a pro, with a bunch of splash plays, in a contract year.

 

He’s Shaq Lawson 2.0. Will get overpaid somewhere, bounce around, and get brought back to Buffalo cheap in 3-4 years.

[boyst]

I like him, I want him to get the money he has earned. I imagine $8mm/yr is about the floor 

[NewEra]

I think he’ll get around 30M gtd 15m  aav.  If he gets that, I hope it’s not from us.  I think he’s perfect where he is right now.  Surrounded by a very good DL and only asked to play 40-50% of the snaps.  Any team asking him to be their #1 or #2 DL will have buyers remorse. He’s too one dimensional for my taste

Edited December 26, 2023 by NewEra

[CaptnCoke11]

10+ million a season for sure 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He’s as good as gone. Had his best year as a pro, with a bunch of splash plays, in a contract year.

 

He’s Shaq Lawson 2.0. Will get overpaid somewhere, bounce around, and get brought back to Buffalo cheap in 3-4 years.

I think he’s better than Shaq but overall, I agree. Probably be perfect for a 3-4 team. He has no real explosion.

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

He’s as good as gone. Had his best year as a pro, with a bunch of splash plays, in a contract year.

 

He’s Shaq Lawson 2.0. Will get overpaid somewhere, bounce around, and get brought back to Buffalo cheap in 3-4 years.

 

Shaq Lawson after 2019 is the comparison and I think he will get a deal about the same size (as a percentage of the cap) but maybe with more guaranteed money. I am honestly fine with letting him walk unless he takes a hometown deal that pays him well but maybe is a bit smaller than some other team is willing to pay him. I would rather keep the money to keep Groot down the line who I think is the better player. 

 

It would be very nice to keep AJE but I think the market for him is just going to be big enough that the Bills won't be able to compete reasonably. My DE rotations for 2024 if the Bills cannot retain AJE would be to attempt to resign Floyd and Shaq while drafting a DE high to pair up with Groot and Von. The Bills if AJE is gone will only have Von and Groot on the roster and even if they bring back Floyd and Shaq those guys are older. The Bills will need to restock the DE position with a younger player. If AJE is retained then I think you run it back with what you have but maybe add a mid to late round pick to develop. 

[peterpan]

He has been solid but, it’s too little too late to pay up big for. Maybe he market won’t be as big on him as week think? In that case he may get a team friendly extension 

[Matt_In_NH]

More than the Bills should pay, he will be a loss but you cannot resign everyone.  My bet is whoever signs him won't get the value out of him he signs for.  Rousseau should be considered for an extension, but maybe not til after next year.

[Kaenon]

39 minutes ago, boyst said:

I like him, I want him to get the money he has earned. I imagine $8mm/yr is about the floor 

That's kinda what I thought.

Plus cap is going up a lot next year...

He could see $10M somewhere by a team that really likes him and likely a team we played against this year.

[Charles Romes]

His late season injury may have made him less Espensa. 

[peterpan]

A good rookie draft pick could produce as much as he is too.

 

think Milano, Kyle Williams, taron Johnson….

 

I know our DE picks never seem to pan out but maybe one finally will!?

[BuffaloBillyG]

I can see him in the 3/yr $28M range with between $12M-15M in guaranteed cash. Not bad value for teams that don't rotate as often as we do.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think he’s gone. He’s a tough guy to evaluate. I loved the pick but it took a while for him to become a legit starter and I’m not sure he is a total 3 down guy. He lacks burst so I don’t ever see him being a double digit sack guy.

 

ideally, he thrives in a rotation and he is really good in that role. I’m just not sure how much that is worth and it’s probably more than we want to pay.  Solid player in the Chris Kelsay (better) vein. 

Very accurate comparison to Kelsay. AJ 's never scratching 10+ sacks but he will give you a couple remarkable games per year.  I'd rather spend AJ's money extending Floyd.  Leonard puts consistent pressure on the qb every other play.  Try to get him for 2 more years and wait to get out of Von's contract. 

[SectionC3]

3 x 10, with approximately half guaranteed.  

 

The better question is what does Gabe Davis get.  Before last week I would have said 1 x 7.5 would be a nice get for him.  Now I'm not so sure somebody doesn't bite on him. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by SectionC3

[CNYfan]

Sometimes these guys who show out in the Super Bowl get better contracts than they may otherwise.   

[Big Blitz]

 

[John from Riverside]

Just find another productive, one we rotation anyway

 

I want my shiny new receiver

[Jerome007]

The dude blossomed just at the right time... for himself. He is a crapshoot for any GM that signs him. He could be all the way from bargain-compared-to-production, to complete waste of doe. This year, for purely pass rushes and deflections, Floyd was better but he has a legit claim to #2. Oliver, Floyd, Rousseau were way more complete though. 

[msw2112]

Could he be the next Oliver?  What I mean by this is that Oliver has flashed his first few years, but was highly inconsistent from week to week.  One week a monster, and other weeks invisible.  The Bills paid him and it looked like a huge overpay.  He came out this season and earned it.

 

Epenesa has been similarly inconsistent, some weeks a monster and others invisible, just like Oliver.  Maybe he gets paid good money (but not top dollar) and rewards the team with great play next season.

 

Or, he goes the way of Edmunds and moves on to be overpaid someone elsewhere....

[Punching Bag]

9 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Could he be the next Oliver?  What I mean by this is that Oliver has flashed his first few years, but was highly inconsistent from week to week.  One week a monster, and other weeks invisible.  The Bills paid him and it looked like a huge overpay.  He came out this season and earned it.

 

Epenesa has been similarly inconsistent, some weeks a monster and others invisible, just like Oliver.  Maybe he gets paid good money (but not top dollar) and rewards the team with great play next season.

 

Or, he goes the way of Edmunds and moves on to be overpaid someone elsewhere....

 

Or he leaves and becomes a monster for another defense.

 

During the first two years his weight varied per direction of Bills training staff.

In his third year his weight settled; he was developing and part of that may have been tutorage from Von Miller.

During this year he has been steadily getting better and showing including his athletic ability and covering receivers on stunts.

Unfortunately he was injured at wrong time but he still played 13 games; an injury to the rib cartilage is tricky so he might be able to play or not.

After this season he may decide to sign a on year deal to try to reset his market but if Bills look like they will need to restock defense with 12 FAs on defense it would be the wrong year for a one year deal.

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Limeaid

[SydneyBillsFan]

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

49. EDGE LEONARD FLOYD, BUFFALO BILLS

 

Floyd was let go by the Los Angeles Rams as they dropped from the most expensive NFL team in 2022 to the cheapest in 2023. Still, he has made a handful of splash plays this season, with several coming in key moments as the Bills defense struggles overall.

Floyd has earned 65.0-plus pass-rush grades in four straight seasons, and his 37.5 sacks over the span have flown under the radar as a top-10 mark among edge defenders.

Floyd is long and rangy, with good burst but only adequate bend around the edge. He tends to impact more plays than the box score indicates, thanks to his good instincts to get his hands up to deflect passes or disrupt throwing windows.

Top free agent comparison: Bruce Irvin, 2018

 

PlayerPass-rush gradeTrue pass set pass-rush gradePass-rush win rateRun-defense gradeAPY as % of Cap at signing

 

Leonard Floyd66.169.711.1%55.4?

Bruce Irvin65.770.79.7%77.51.8%

 

*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing

 

Contract Projection: One year, $6 million fully guaranteed

 

Dunno about the rest of you, but I wouldn't hesitate a nanosecond to get him back for that money.

[balln]

AJE not even on the list of top 100 FA. He makes plays, tips passes id say is what he does best. He really only wins against inferior blockers with effort and bull rush, or if the qb take a DEEP drop. Otherwise hes a JAG. Horrific against the run and misdirection runs

Edited December 27, 2023 by balln

[ProcessTruster]

he'll be gone

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

 

49. EDGE LEONARD FLOYD, BUFFALO BILLS

 

Floyd was let go by the Los Angeles Rams as they dropped from the most expensive NFL team in 2022 to the cheapest in 2023. Still, he has made a handful of splash plays this season, with several coming in key moments as the Bills defense struggles overall.

Floyd has earned 65.0-plus pass-rush grades in four straight seasons, and his 37.5 sacks over the span have flown under the radar as a top-10 mark among edge defenders.

Floyd is long and rangy, with good burst but only adequate bend around the edge. He tends to impact more plays than the box score indicates, thanks to his good instincts to get his hands up to deflect passes or disrupt throwing windows.

Top free agent comparison: Bruce Irvin, 2018

 

PlayerPass-rush gradeTrue pass set pass-rush gradePass-rush win rateRun-defense gradeAPY as % of Cap at signing

 

Leonard Floyd66.169.711.1%55.4?

Bruce Irvin65.770.79.7%77.51.8%

 

*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing

 

Contract Projection: One year, $6 million fully guaranteed

 

Dunno about the rest of you, but I wouldn't hesitate a nanosecond to get him back for that money.

Agreed, after seeing that link I came to post the same thing. But I don't believe he'll sign for such a bargain.

11 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Just find another productive, one we rotation anyway

 

I want my shiny new receiver

You will.

 

I am pretty sure Beane will do a lot to draft WR in R1, but it obviously depends on where we draft and many other things. But he will want his WR.

 

Personally if those top WRs are as good as advertised I'd be willing to trade up for next year's R1 pick to get one. But let's see how the season ends first.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

6 hours ago, Limeaid said:

In his third year his weight settled; he was developing and part of that may have been tutorage from Van Miller.

Didn’t know he was already considering a switch to broadcasting 

[GunnerBill]

I think he is looking at roughly 4 years; $60m; $30m guaranteed and $15m AAV. 

 

I mean Carl Lawson got $15m AAV for three seasons three years ago from the Jets on the back of two 5 sack seasons. Sure he had 8.5 as a rookie too, but I think teams will look at Epenesa and what the Bills did with him and be willing to ignore the production in his first two years as pretty irrelevant. 

 

The guy who is going to really cash in this offseason is Bryce Huff. Spotrac has him at $9.2m AAV. Man for that money I'd love the Bills to sign him. I suspect he will be in the same range as AJE personally. I still don't understand how that kid went undrafted. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by GunnerBill

[NewEra]

7 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

 

49. EDGE LEONARD FLOYD, BUFFALO BILLS

 

Floyd was let go by the Los Angeles Rams as they dropped from the most expensive NFL team in 2022 to the cheapest in 2023. Still, he has made a handful of splash plays this season, with several coming in key moments as the Bills defense struggles overall.

Floyd has earned 65.0-plus pass-rush grades in four straight seasons, and his 37.5 sacks over the span have flown under the radar as a top-10 mark among edge defenders.

Floyd is long and rangy, with good burst but only adequate bend around the edge. He tends to impact more plays than the box score indicates, thanks to his good instincts to get his hands up to deflect passes or disrupt throwing windows.

Top free agent comparison: Bruce Irvin, 2018

 

PlayerPass-rush gradeTrue pass set pass-rush gradePass-rush win rateRun-defense gradeAPY as % of Cap at signing

 

Leonard Floyd66.169.711.1%55.4?

Bruce Irvin65.770.79.7%77.51.8%

 

*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing

 

Contract Projection: One year, $6 million fully guaranteed

 

Dunno about the rest of you, but I wouldn't hesitate a nanosecond to get him back for that money.

I can’t see him only getting 1-6M.  Ya never know tho.  Our season would’ve been over weeks ago if Beane hadn’t signed him imo

[Magox]

He's a good player who if given an opportunity to start with playing 60% of the snaps, he'll be a consistent 7-11 sack guy a year.   He's got decent burst and good technique plus he's gotten pretty good at tipping passes with that 6'6 frame of his.

 

I suspect he'll get anywhere $7M - $10 M a year contract.  Pass rushers typically come in at a premium but we did get Floyd who is more proven for an even cheaper amount, even though I do believe GM's factored in his age.

[frostbitmic]

I could see Epenesa get a 4 Year 50M with 25M guaranteed contract. His numbers would be gaudier if McDermott rotated players a little bit less and he was starting.

 

If you can get Floyd back for a fully guaranteed 6M ... DO IT.

[VaMilBill]

18 hours ago, FireChans said:

He’s as good as gone. Had his best year as a pro, with a bunch of splash plays, in a contract year.

 

He’s Shaq Lawson 2.0. Will get overpaid somewhere, bounce around, and get brought back to Buffalo cheap in 3-4 years.

Agree. The splash plays probably aren’t repeatable next year. Not something you can count on. We need to let him walk. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I think he is looking at roughly 4 years; $60m; $30m guaranteed and $15m AAV. 

 

I mean Carl Lawson got $15m AAV for three seasons three years ago from the Jets on the back of two 5 sack seasons. Sure he had 8.5 as a rookie too, but I think teams will look at Epenesa and what the Bills did with him and be willing to ignore the production in his first two years as pretty irrelevant. 

 

The guy who is going to really cash in this offseason is Bryce Huff. Spotrac has him at $9.2m AAV. Man for that money I'd love the Bills to sign him. I suspect he will be in the same range as AJE personally. I still don't understand how that kid went undrafted. 

My initial thought was 4/$52M with $26M guaranteed, but with the rising cap - and Bosa re-setting the top of the market - I certainly can see him getting your estimate of 4/60/30 on the open market. 

[FireChans]

19 minutes ago, Magox said:

He's a good player who if given an opportunity to start with playing 60% of the snaps, he'll be a consistent 7-11 sack guy a year.   He's got decent burst and good technique plus he's gotten pretty good at tipping passes with that 6'6 frame of his.

 

I suspect he'll get anywhere $7M - $10 M a year contract.  Pass rushers typically come in at a premium but we did get Floyd who is more proven for an even cheaper amount, even though I do believe GM's factored in his age.

One day I will understand how a guy who has never gotten more than 6.5 sacks in a season will be a consistent 7-11 sack guy.

 

Do you guys know how rare those guys are? Leonard Floyd is our first double digit sack guy since LORAX in 2016!

[Magox]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

One day I will understand how a guy who has never gotten more than 6.5 sacks in a season will be a consistent 7-11 sack guy.

 

Do you guys know how rare those guys are? Leonard Floyd is our first double digit sack guy since LORAX in 2016!

 

That's because you aren't thinking properly and have a bad habit of not reading the entire posts that you are responding to.

 

His rookie year in 2020 he played 27% of the total snaps

Following year in 2021 he played 30%

 

It wasn't until 2022 his third year that he began finding his form, he played 35% of the snaps and got 6.5 sacks.

This year he has played 36% of the snaps with two games to go and he has missed two games and he has 6.5 sacks.

 

The post that you were responding to qualified the statement that if Epenesa is given the opportunity to play on at least 60% of the snaps he would be a 7 to 11 sack a guy kind of player.  The facts of his play and stats shows that statement to be a very likely outcome.

 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Magox

[TheyCallMeAndy]

19 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

A lot of focus on Davis - but what about AJ?

 

Is he as good as gone?  

 

We have a lot of D-line issues next year it looks like DE might be our biggest need.  
 

I’m not going to lose sleep over losing him but he’s become a great rotational piece a guy we drafted in the 2nd round.  

 

Also is Jones under contract?  Floyd?  They both UFAs?  
 

AJ, IMO, is a must resign and needs to start opposite Groot next year. 
 

I don’t think he returns to be the #3 DE. 
 

Davis and Floyd are both UDFAs, I think I let them test the market if they don’t want team friendly deals. 

[FireChans]

29 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

That's because you aren't thinking properly and have a bad habit of not reading the entire posts that you are responding to.

 

His rookie year in 2020 he played 27% of the total snaps

Following year in 2021 he played 30%

 

It wasn't until 2022 his third year that he began finding his form, he played 35% of the snaps and got 6.5 sacks.

This year he has played 36% of the snaps with two games to go and he has missed two games and he has 6.5 sacks.

 

The post that you were responding to qualified the statement that if Epenesa is given the opportunity to play on at least 60% of the snaps he would be a 7 to 11 sack a guy kind of player.  The facts of his play and stats shows that statement to be a very likely outcome.

 

 

He's actually played:

 

31% in 2020

37% in 2021

38% in 2022

41% in 2023

 

Regardless, do you think he's a better pass rusher than Rousseau?

 

Rousseau snap counts:

 

49% - 4 sacks

56% - 8 sacks

59% - 5 sacks

 

Your projection is far overrating AJE.  These 7-11 sack guys do not grow on trees.

There is one guy from the 2020 draft class AVERAGING >7 sacks per year. One. And AJE with a big new deal is gonna be the next guy?  Possible, but not likely.

 

Shaq Lawson had a nice 6.5 sacks on 50% of snaps in his final year. He "projected out" to being a 7-10 sack per year guy. He doesn't have 10 career sacks since.

 

Very likely outcome for AJE?  Not even close.

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He's actually played:

 

31% in 2020

37% in 2021

38% in 2022

41% in 2023

 

Regardless, do you think he's a better pass rusher than Rousseau?

 

Rousseau snap counts:

 

49% - 4 sacks

56% - 8 sacks

59% - 5 sacks

 

Your projection is far overrating AJE.  These 7-11 sack guys do not grow on trees.

There is one guy from the 2020 draft class AVERAGING >7 sacks per year. One. And AJE with a big new deal is gonna be the next guy?  Possible, but not likely.

 

Shaq Lawson had a nice 6.5 sacks on 50% of snaps in his final year. He "projected out" to being a 7-10 sack per year guy. He doesn't have 10 career sacks since.

 

Very likely outcome for AJE?  Not even close.

 

Here you can see his percentage of snaps played https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2020-snap-counts.htm

 

He's already a guy that can do 8 sacks a year+ if given the same opportunities as a normal NFL starting DE.

 

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

Here you can see his percentage of snaps played https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2020-snap-counts.htm

 

He's already a guy that can do 8 sacks a year+ if given the same opportunities as a normal NFL starting DE.

 

 

It’s weird that AJE’s page has his snap counts higher than the team page. Must be calculating it differently.

 

I would feel pretty confident in a wager that AJE doesn’t eclipse 8 sacks more than once in his career, if that. 
 

I’m sure some team will feel as you do and overpay him, only to find out situational pass rushers do not actually project out 1:1 play time to sack totals. One only has to look at our own Leonard Floyd, who played 86% of snaps last season for 9.5 sacks in 17 games, and is playing 54% of snaps this season for 10.5 sacks in 15 games. If your projection held true, he should have half the sacks he currently does.
 

Of course, that’s not how it works. There’s millions of examples of this. Bills legend Mario Addison had 11 sacks in 2017. He played more snaps the next two years and had less sacks both years. 
 

Seeing as only 19 players in the NFL actually had double digit sacks last season, I’m confident that AJE won’t be one of top 20 anytime soon. 
 

I guess we’ll see.

[Don Otreply]

If they want him they will make it happen, what he gets paid, don’t care, it’s not my money, 

 

GO BILLS!!!