The elephant in the room that there is no thread about - Josh Allen has a severe turnover problem

[BuffaloBill]

If Josh does not find some way to cut down on the turnovers he will likely continue to be both a Bills game killer and may even severely stain his career.  Josh is no doubt a first ballot HOF talent. Josh also has the talent to win multiple Lombardi’s

 

Whether he achieves these outcomes may largely depend on his ability to cut down on the turnovers. In the Bills losses this year Josh has been a turnover factory.  yes, batted balls, strips and the like are not always his “fault.”  However, the statistics don’t lie.  Josh is boom or bust and lately he has been far more prone to bust.

 

We as fans will have zero impact here.  However, I wonder if Brady as a new OC will literally and figuratively help Josh get a handle on the situation.  Josh has turned around weaknesses in his game in many ways.  Turnovers now remain the last most obvious hurdle where he needs to do so.

 

As a contrarian point, Josh is not among the worst at interception % among the all time “greats.”  It’s apples and oranges due to the prevalence of the pass game in the modern era but on a straight up % Jim Kelly and Dan Marino  were worse. For a better comparison to “modern era” QB’s Aaron Rogers is far better (and can be a gunslinger).

 

 https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_int_perc_career.htm

 

Your thoughts?

 

 

[Rigotz]

Great point.

 

There hasn't been enough discussion about Josh's turnovers in the media and on this message board and by Josh himself and by the coaches who are both here and fired.

 

I think we're all happy you created this thread.

[Blank Stare]

 

6 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

There hasn't been enough discussion about Josh's turnovers in the media and on this message board and by Josh himself and by the coaches who are both here and fired.

 

But yes…cut that 💩 out Josh. 

[MikePJ76]

My thoughts are this, Josh Allen is the villain and the reason for the losing narrative is making me mental.  An interception in the first quarter is no more harmful to the outcome of the game than a Pass Interference penalty on the most crucial play of the game or an inexcusable 12 man penalty on a field goal,  Its just easy for the narrative to be fed to the simpletons who watch football that the qb is the problem.

 

Pass goes right through the hands of Gabe Davis and is intercepted in the redzone costing the team a minimum of 3 points and more realistically 7 points......Davis is the culprit yet the tv cameras show close up shots of Josh Allen, then they show his interception numbers and Joe Buck and Troy Aikman say he is the reason for the teams troubles and say he throws the ball too hard.  The simpletons at home gobble it up and take the easy road and blame him.  

 

in the most crucial moment for the offense in the fourth quarter Allen made a huge pass play and then ultimately ran in the go ahead score.  Just like vs NY, Tampa, New England, the playoffs at KC, playoffs vs Miami...etc.

 

John Elway once said "they pay me to win on third downs and score td's in the red zone"  

 

Its time this organization lines up behind him and stands with him.  

 

When star players brothers are saying he is nothing without his brother.....this is a serious red flag.  

 

This type of stuff needs to be stopped.  

 

Everyone on the staff and most of the players here are replaceable....think you can't find another stephon diggs? James Cook? Ed oliver? etc.....nonsense.....Josh Allen....you might wait 25 years or more for another one.

 

Allen will outlast the staff, the front office and the roster.  The organization needs to end all this talk in the media and the BS narrative about this player.  He needs to know he is not going to be leveraged here into new jobs for coaches and as a scapegoat for other players to shed their share of blame.

 

To quote Bill Parcells, "This is a replacement business"  another quote from parcells on qb's...."you can't just dial 1-800 quarterback and get another one"

 

Bills fans and the local Bills media need to really take that to heart.  What is going on right now with the narrative is insanity to me.

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by MikePJ76

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, MikePJ76 said:

My thoughts are this, Josh Allen is the villain and the reason for the losing narrative is making me mental.  An interception in the first quarter is no more harmful to the outcome of the game than a Pass Interference penalty on the most crucial play of the game or an inexcusable 12 man penalty on a field goal,  Its just easy for the narrative to be fed to the simpletons who watch football that the qb is the problem.

 

Pass goes right through the hands of Gabe Davis and is intercepted in the redzone costing the team a minimum of 3 points and more realistically 7 points......Davis is the culprit yet the tv cameras show close up shots of Josh Allen, then they show his interception numbers and Joe Buck and Troy Aikman say he is the reason for the teams troubles and say he throws the ball too hard.  The simpletons at home gobble it up and take the easy road and blame him.  

 

in the most crucial moment for the offense in the fourth quarter Allen made a huge pass play and then ultimately ran in the go ahead score.  Just like vs NY, Tampa, New England, the playoffs at KC, playoffs vs Miami...etc.

 

John Elway once said "they pay me to win on third downs and score td's in the red zone"  

 

Its time this organization lines up behind him and stands with him.  

 

When star players brothers are saying he is nothing without his brother.....this is a serious red flag.  

 

This type of stuff needs to be stopped.  

 

Everyone on the staff and most of the players here are replaceable....think you can't find another stephon diggs? James Cook? Ed oliver? etc.....nonsense.....Josh Allen....you might wait 25 years or more for another one.

 

Allen will outlast the staff, the front office and the roster.  The organization needs to end all this talk in the media and the BS narrative about this player.  He needs to know he is not going to be leveraged here into new jobs for coaches and as a scapegoat for other players to shed their share of blame.

 

To quote Bill Parcells, "This is a replacement business"  another quote from parcells on qb's...."you can't just dial 1-800 quarterback and get another one"

 

Bills fans and the local Bills need to really take that to heart.  What is going on right now with the narrative is insanity to me.

 

 Ball security is job security.

[MikePJ76]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

 Ball security is job security.

Great.  

 

So go ahead and get rid of Josh Allen because of some interceptions and ignore all the other stuff he does, including playing hurt all the time.

 

When this team turns into a ball control running team and limits possessions and plays lights out defense with the intent to win 17-14 like the 90 Giants you can get back to me about ball security.

 

for now, the turnovers are something that is happening amongst a bevy of things that have been out of whack.  They are not back breaking mistakes and for the most part, sans the jets game are not late ints to end the game.

 

Even with the interceptions the team has not lost directly because of them. The jets game was lost on a kick return, the pats game because the defense can not get a stop late same with Denver coupled with another special teams mistake.  

 

Denver was dropping 7 in coverage monday night on every damn play seemingly begging allen to try to fit balls in.  That is a tough ask of any quarterback.....in the end he led a game winning drive inside 4 minutes and ran the damn go ahead score in.  The defense let them down again.

 

 

[DuckyBoys]

He does need to cut them down but a few were throwaways/arm punts batted balls and bad luck (Gabe Davis stone hands etc)  Think they seem much worse because a few were really dumb forced throws  The really egregious plays were the Jets ints , the Pats opening drive int and the broncos sideline pick  Those were arm arrogance/bad decisions  He needs to be better, maybe benefit from a bid of good luck  Think it all starts with using the run game more and maybe him figuring out how to move the ball without needing to fit difficult throws more than a handful of times per game

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I was more than fine with his INTs. It’s always been the fumbles that are inexcusable. Also the turnovers didnt kill us when we hardly punted. A punt is a controlled turnover.

 

We’re still not punting much. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[HappyDays]

Just posted this is another thread:

 

He has had awful turnover luck this year. As far as I can remember zero dropped interceptions and every one of his fumbles has been recovered by the defense.

[Fleezoid]

15 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

My thoughts are this, Josh Allen is the villain and the reason for the losing narrative is making me mental.  An interception in the first quarter is no more harmful to the outcome of the game than a Pass Interference penalty on the most crucial play of the game or an inexcusable 12 man penalty on a field goal,  Its just easy for the narrative to be fed to the simpletons who watch football that the qb is the problem.

 

Pass goes right through the hands of Gabe Davis and is intercepted in the redzone costing the team a minimum of 3 points and more realistically 7 points......Davis is the culprit yet the tv cameras show close up shots of Josh Allen, then they show his interception numbers and Joe Buck and Troy Aikman say he is the reason for the teams troubles and say he throws the ball too hard.  The simpletons at home gobble it up and take the easy road and blame him.  

 

 

Joe Buck and Troy Aikman? Ick! I had the Manning Cast on. I did switch to ESPN when Kermit came on. Can't listen to him either. But trust me, the sound was off during that time. 

[GoBills808]

Lol at the Rodgers comparison

 

 

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Great.  

 

So go ahead and get rid of Josh Allen because of some interceptions and ignore all the other stuff he does, including playing hurt all the time.

 

When this team turns into a ball control running team and limits possessions and plays lights out defense with the intent to win 17-14 like the 90 Giants you can get back to me about ball security.

 

for now, the turnovers are something that is happening amongst a bevy of things that have been out of whack.  They are not back breaking mistakes and for the most part, sans the jets game are not late ints to end the game.

 

Even with the interceptions the team has not lost directly because of them. The jets game was lost on a kick return, the pats game because the defense can not get a stop late same with Denver coupled with another special teams mistake.  

 

Denver was dropping 7 in coverage monday night on every damn play seemingly begging allen to try to fit balls in.  That is a tough ask of any quarterback.....in the end he led a game winning drive inside 4 minutes and ran the damn go ahead score in.  The defense let them down again.

 

 

 The first TO resulted in points against Denver. The first TO resulted in points against NE.

 

TOs matter. They always have and always will.

 

Yes, Josh is great. TOs aren’t great. TOs are bad. You are never gonna convince anybody otherwise because this is a fact.

[Toyo321]

25 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Great point.

 

There hasn't been enough discussion about Josh's turnovers in the media and on this message board and by Josh himself and by the coaches who are both here and fired.

 

I think we're all happy you created this thread.

It has been dragged all over the media for the last 5 weeks.  Everyone is pointing their finger at Josh, his preparation commitment,  football IQ and also his blatant egotistical trait of believing he can force any ball into any double or triple covered receiver, without a resulting adverse outcome.

 

As of late JA17 has been a liability and the media has called him out on this every single week for the last 5 weeks if not more.

 

JA17 in 2023 = Extremely Inconsistent and reckless decision making with the football on the field.

 

 

[Wraith]

I think the Josh Allen turnover narrative is greatly overstated. Passing volume and randomness significantly affect people's perception. Your own link show's that Allen is much better than average at interception % for his career, despite supposedly being a gunslinger. Even this year, his interception rate is basically equal to Peyton Manning's career mark. 

 

The other thing is just random luck. Through the first eight weeks of the season, Allen had 8 interceptions and two fumbles on 7 total turn-over worthy plays, in the opinion of Pro Football Focus. That means that literally every mistake Allen was making was getting picked and then some. That is not a normal rate. Every quarterback benefits from defensive backs inability to reliably catch but this year randomness has not been in Allen's favor. Meanwhile, the Bills defense has not had an interception since the Miami game six weeks ago. How many picks did they drop against Baker Mayfield two weeks ago? My count was three.

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

This is a pretty dominant topic in terms of Josh Allen for years now.

 

The funny thing is, outside of that one play that Josh Allen has thrown 4 interceptions on this year, Allen's turnover worthy plays are actually incredibly low.  And as for that one play... I hope sending Dorsey packing gets that play out of our playbook... or at least sets up Brady to mix in some trickery designed around that specific play.

[BuffaloBaumer]

Allen will never be as good as he was in 2021. For whatever reason (and it's not just Dabol), Allen's physical tools, decision making, and attitude on the sidelines have all regressed. He is a middle of the pack QB who, without a great defense, will not get this team to the playoffs. His head is either scrambled with off the filed stuff, or has just completely lost confidence in his ability. The window was small with the team around him, and now it's just another NFL team with a goal to get to the playoffs.

[freddyjj]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Just posted this is another thread:

 

He has had awful turnover luck this year. As far as I can remember zero dropped interceptions and every one of his fumbles has been recovered by the defense.

heard on WGR earlier today that all but one of the Bills fumbles (8/9) have been recovered by the opponent!  Hopefully we stop putting the ball on the carpet and we regress to the mean on recoveries if we have more fumbles.

Edited November 15, 2023 by freddyjj

[julian]

Yes he does and always will, some years will be better than others, but what he doesn’t have a problem with us scoring TDs. Allen is a more athletic Brett Favre and that’s just what it is.

 

 Packers were able to overcome the turnovers and catch a title, hopefully the Bills can do the same or better.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Just posted this is another thread:

 

He has had awful turnover luck this year. As far as I can remember zero dropped interceptions and every one of his fumbles has been recovered by the defense.

 

Awesome tweet and exactly the point I was just trying to make.

 

Other than that really weird play that Allen keeps throwing interceptions on, he's been soooOOOOOOOOooooo much better at ball security.

[Mango]

Ok, I hear what your saying and that is a good idea. 

But one thing I am so confused about is the turnovers. I get the sense these are bad. And when we have them, we lose more. I wonder if they have tried asking him to stop? 

Has anybody asked somebody on the team if they maybe tried asking him to stop? Who is the asker I need to ask to do the asking of Josh to stop doing the thing? 

[HoofHearted]

He always has. This isn't anything new to this season.

[Chugga]

That’s not the elephant in the room.  The elephant is definitely the fact that the star WRs brother is openly talking trash on his QB and the WR hasn’t addressed this.  Completely unacceptable that Diggs is letting his bro mouth off like this.  Thats your QB that’s your teammate.  You want to talk about Allen’s numbers before Diggs, well look at Diggs numbers before Allen.  Maybe Allen’s brother or sister need to start posting on twitter about how dangerous the Bills offense would be if they didn’t trade that 1st rounder and drafted Justin Jefferson instead.

 

Dont get me wrong I love Stefon Diggs he’s my favorite current Bill, but he’s losing me quickly by not sticking up for his QB.

[90sBills]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Just posted this is another thread:

 

He has had awful turnover luck this year. As far as I can remember zero dropped interceptions and every one of his fumbles has been recovered by the defense.

That guy is really pushy the ‘turnover worthy’ narrative. It’s not the same as actual turnovers.

 

When I golf I don’t count my ‘birdies worthy’ putts. Otherwise my index would be much lower. lol 

[Bob Jones]

3 minutes ago, Fleezoid said:

 

Joe Buck and Troy Aikman? Ick! I had the Manning Cast on. I did switch to ESPN when Kermit came on. Can't listen to him either. But trust me, the sound was off during that time. 

I really enjoy what the Manning bros have to say, and agree with you about Buck & Aikman,....but the problem is that they don’t take the same video feed as the main broadcast, so you dont get nowhere near the good replays that they show on the main channel. And then very often, they're yakking with their guest and you really miss out on stuff, such as the ref announcing a penalty, or multiple angle replays.

 

Also, is there really a need to see their faces in little boxes on the screen for the WHOLE broadcast?! I think not. 😉

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Slowly but surely people are coming around to my position. It's tough to be on the vanguard, on the bleeding edge. But man, it can be gratifying

 

[kota]

Josh Allen does turnover the all alot he is a gun slinger.  However,  there are times where he is forcing it because the offense isn't moving and he's trying to create something out of nothing.  

The playcalling has been terrible.  

[MJS]

Oh really? Nobody is discussing Josh Allen's turnovers?

[Wraith]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Just posted this is another thread:

 

He has had awful turnover luck this year. As far as I can remember zero dropped interceptions and every one of his fumbles has been recovered by the defense.

This nails it. Most people don't appreciate how much random variation affects the world, and sports fans and pundits are generally terrible at it due to their need to explain every outcome with a narrative.

[Westside]

Just now, kota said:

Josh Allen does turnover the all alot he is a gun slinger.  However,  there are times where he is forcing it because the offense isn't moving and he's trying to create something out of nothing.  

The playcalling has been terrible.  

And our receivers outside of Diggs suck. How many of those Interceptions have come off of receivers hands into a opposing players hands? Or the severely limited receivers running the wrong route? It’s not all in Allen.

[Nihilarian]

I put a lot of the blame on Ken Dorsey and here is why. It was stated on MNF by the Mannings that they saw that INT coming before it happened and as others have stated that is a pass play that should be taken out of their playbook as it has happened a few times now. 

 

Bill Walsh used to make certain that with his pass plays the receiver was always between the defender and the ball. Not only that, he would review plays in which Montana would throw an INT and remove those plays if they happened more than once. 

 

Besides, according to Dan Orlavsky, Dorsey has failed to put his players in a position to have success. It would take a 10 out of 10 effort by players to make plays work and it shouldn't be that difficult. He stated that the Buffalo offense was broken schematically and easy to defend. 

 

Josh has gotten worse under Dorsey. Now, let's see how it goes with Brady. 

[Heels20X6]

4 minutes ago, Chugga said:

That’s not the elephant in the room.  The elephant is definitely the fact that the star WRs brother is openly talking trash on his QB and the WR hasn’t addressed this.  Completely unacceptable that Diggs is letting his bro mouth off like this.  Thats your QB that’s your teammate.  You want to talk about Allen’s numbers before Diggs, well look at Diggs numbers before Allen.  Maybe Allen’s brother or sister need to start posting on twitter about how dangerous the Bills offense would be if they didn’t trade that 1st rounder and drafted Justin Jefferson instead.

 

Dont get me wrong I love Stefon Diggs he’s my favorite current Bill, but he’s losing me quickly by not sticking up for his QB.

Considering how quickly Josh went to bat for Stef when the media went on "Attack Mode" with the early season stuff, it's pretty pathetic that Diggs is being quiet while his less talented brother mouths off.

 

If the media actually did it's job, it would be great if someone asked him directly about this.  Ask Josh too.

[MikePJ76]

Just now, FireChans said:

 The first TO resulted in points against Denver. The first TO resulted in points against NE.

 

TOs matter. They always have and always will.

 

Yes, Josh is great. TOs aren’t great. TOs are bad. You are never gonna convince anybody otherwise because this is a fact.

The first TO was a fumble by cook that led to a field goal.

 

The Allen INT. in the first quarter led to no points for Denver and would have been a minimum of 3 for Buffalo.

 

yes the interception vs new england led to a pats TD....then buffalo got the ball back and allen threw a TD pass that was negated because of an offensive pass interference call.  they kicked a field goal.  In the fourth quarter in the 4 minute drill Allen leads a go ahead scoring drive by running it in for a td to give buffalo the lead.  The defense then blows the game......now the offensive pass interference call on Murray cost the bills 4 points.....they lost by 4 points, allen hit kincaid on the play for a td.

 

At the most crucial times Allen led the team back to take the lead.  You can make the case that the OPI was just as harmful as the int vs new england.  No one will though because the narrative is Allen is a turnover machine because they heard it on espn.

 

Turnovers are a part of the game, if you are going to have to pass to survive because you refuse to run the ball then the odds of turnovers happening is going to go up no matter who the qb is.

 

you know what else are a part of the game?  Takeaways.  Yes the defense has killer injuries but allowing teams to control the clock and push them up and down the field and make big plays when they want is just as bad as any turnover from the offense.

 

The defensive gaffes and penalties late in these games whether its missed tackles, dead ball mental mistakes or The P.I.'s are every bit and maybe more a problem than a few first quarter interceptions.

[Logic]

1.) Not all turnovers are created equally. As Dan Orlovsky pointed out, Josh has three truly egregious interceptions on the year. He also has multiple interceptions that were tipped at the line or bounced off of his receivers' hands.

2.) As Dan Orlovsky ALSO pointed out, the Bills offense has become super static, basic, and easy for defenses to gameplan against. Josh Allen is the type of player who, when there's nothing there, tries a bit too hard at times to make something out of nothing.

3.) The entire offensive cast of players has been playing sloppy football, dropping catchable passes, and ending up in the wrong place on pass patterns at times. To me, the ongoing complete offensive dysfunction and sloppiness almost certainly points to a failure in coaching.

All of these points lead me to this: I think that the dismissal of Ken Dorsey may lead to less turnovers from Josh Allen, and I think it will end up being a non-issue. If Brady is no great improvement, then I expect whoever is next at OC -- presuming he's worth his salt -- to lead to a smarter and less turnover-prone Josh Allen.

Lastly, REGARDLESS of who his OC is, Josh Allen WILL always be a gunslinger, he will likely ALWAYS have a decent amount of turnovers, but the good will likely almost always outweigh the bad. You take the bad plays with the super-human ones, because you can't have the latter without occasionally having the former. Shooters shoot.

[Wraith]

4 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

you know what else are a part of the game?  Takeaways.  Yes the defense has killer injuries but allowing teams to control the clock and push them up and down the field and make big plays when they want is just as bad as any turnover from the offense.

Yup! The Bills defense hasn't had an interception in six freakin' games! The Bills turnover rate on offense this season is perfectly normal, the turnover margin is terrible because the defense can't force a turnover to save their lives.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Wraith

[Aussie Joe]

Heard a stat yesterday, that in the Josh Allen era, the Bills are 31-1 when they win the turnovers 

[Scott7975]

Turnovers are a bigger issue this year than in years past.  In years past they didn't matter so much because he was putting up like 30+ most games.  This year thats more like 18-20.  It's only magnified because the offense has been so bad in just about everything else this year.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Scott7975

[Bangarang]

Maybe more WCO principles might be the best scheme for Josh. Have him focus more on timing and throwing to a spot rather than trying to diagnose and dissect post snap. Of course that would depend on an OC who is good at scheming and designing plays.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Bangarang

[GoBills808]

14 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

That guy is really pushy the ‘turnover worthy’ narrative. It’s not the same as actual turnovers.

 

When I golf I don’t count my ‘birdies worthy’ putts. Otherwise my index would be much lower. lol 

It's not the same but it informs the raw data, similar to strokes gained/GIR

[WotAGuy]

Just like sitting on the bench after a turnover lit a fire under James Cook, putting Dorsey in permanent time out will light a fire under Josh. 

[Dan Darragh]

Threads like this one make me consider going cold turkey on the message boards.