The elephant in the room that there is no thread about - Josh Allen has a severe turnover problem

[ExiledInIllinois]

[BananaB]

He’s got a turnover problem but he puts the ball in the endzone at a very high rate.  Seems the Bills are trying to coach him to play a different style to limit his mistakes and it’s producing more. Maybe the better option is to build the O around his strengths going forward. Just an idea. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Facts

He has become a T.O machine , which kills us on both sides of the ball 

By become do you mean since 2018 till now? What do you mean by “has become”?

 

this is who he has been his entire career.
 

 

[BuffaloBaumer]

8 hours ago, Chugga said:

That’s not the elephant in the room.  The elephant is definitely the fact that the star WRs brother is openly talking trash on his QB and the WR hasn’t addressed this.  Completely unacceptable that Diggs is letting his bro mouth off like this.  Thats your QB that’s your teammate.  You want to talk about Allen’s numbers before Diggs, well look at Diggs numbers before Allen.  Maybe Allen’s brother or sister need to start posting on twitter about how dangerous the Bills offense would be if they didn’t trade that 1st rounder and drafted Justin Jefferson instead.

 

Dont get me wrong I love Stefon Diggs he’s my favorite current Bill, but he’s losing me quickly by not sticking up for his QB.

Jesus H, you don't think Stephon OKd this? Of course he did. There is ZERO chance his brother threw this out there without Stephon knowing. I actually think Steph is the one that probably told him to do it.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

38 minutes ago, BananaB said:

He’s got a turnover problem but he puts the ball in the endzone at a very high rate.  

And that is understatement. Not sure anyone has put the ball in the end zone at a higher rate than him since 2020. He’s on pace for 44 TD’s on the year. Hurts is the only other player on pace for over 40 and his pass is 41. 
 

All other QB’s are on pace for 36 or less. 
 

The headline is that he leads the league in turnovers. But you hardly hear the headline of leading the league in TD’s.
 

 

[BananaB]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

And that is understatement. Not sure anyone has put the ball in the end zone at a higher rate than him since 2020. He’s on pace for 44 TD’s on the year. Hurts is the only other player on pace for over 40 and his pass is 41. 
 

All other QB’s are on pace for 36 or less. 
 

The headline is that he leads the league in turnovers. But you hardly hear the headline of leading the league in TD’s.
 

 

Difference with Allen is anytime he’s not perfect the media stirs the pot about how they viewed him coming out of colllege. They always want to be right so the minute he struggles it’s all over the headlines. Never gonna change. 

[Mango]

4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I agree criticism is fine. Seems maybe some of us are going overboard with the criticism though. Or perhaps more accurately, not actually realizing what it is they are expecting Allen to achieve.
 

As you say, no player is perfect but Allen would be the closest thing to perfect the league has ever seen if he cut back on turnovers.

 

So, if no player is perfect, it’s my opinion that will simply have to, as bills fans, learn to live with Allen’s biggest flaw.

 

Brett Favre very much had a similar flaw but the Packers were still able to win a title and make two Super Bowl appearances. That should probably be the bills and Allen’s realistic goal as well.

 

 

I think when you see other QB’s with weaknesses you see them take a sack due to mobility, under throw a ball do to arm strength, or miss a pass do to accuracy.
 

The tough part with Allen is we aren’t talking about a single skill. His base problem isn’t under throwing go routes that sometimes gets intercepted like a noodle armed QB but often time doesn’t. We’re talking about the problem actually being turnovers and turnovers all end the same. The other team gets the ball. All sacks or inaccurate balls don’t give the other team the ball. 
 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think when you see other QB’s with weaknesses you see them take a sack due to mobility, under throw a ball do to arm strength, or miss a pass do to accuracy.
 

The tough part with Allen is we aren’t talking about a single skill. His base problem isn’t under throwing go routes that sometimes gets intercepted like a noodle armed QB but often time doesn’t. We’re talking about the problem actually being turnovers and turnovers all end the same. The other team gets the ball. All sacks or inaccurate balls don’t give the other team the ball. 
 

 

 

That is a good point. While he may only have one flaw to other QB's 2 or 3 flaws, Allen's one flaw is one that is typically fatal for most QB's. It's a testament to Allen's other abilities that even with such a fatal flaw he more often than not rises to an elite level of play overall. 

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Advanced stats have become exhausting. I feel like I'm being gaslighted. Like I didn't see Josh throw an out pattern directly into the DB's hands as if he was a ghost two consecutive weeks. Like it doesn't matter that Josh uses his 9th inning closer fast ball on everything. Sure, they should catch it. But is a QB more likely to be successful and not have batted balls if he has touch? How does turnover worthy plays get impacted by that concept? Does Josh's turnover worthy plays that he ranked in the bottom half of football last year matter or does it just matter if the variance works against him? Do fans even have to understand the context of any of these statistics or just drop twitter posts and walk away?  

 

Point I'm trying to make is not that Josh sucks. Just stop trying to pull the nothing to see here routine. It's become insanely annoying. He is not playing well. If you have eyes you can see that pretty easily. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Point I'm trying to make is not that Josh sucks. Just stop trying to pull the nothing to see here routine. It's become insanely annoying. He is not playing well. If you have eyes you can see that pretty easily. 

 

I don't know Mikie. He seems to me to be playing pretty much exactly how he has played the last four seasons. He goes through significant hot streaks and cold streaks every season since 2020. In fact 2020, his best overall season to date, may have been the streakiest of all. Absolutely lit it up the first four games of 2020 then cooled off considerably with one great game against Seattle around the middle of the season and then immediately cooled off again and then lit it up again for the final 4 or 5 games that year. Balled out against the Colts in the Wild Card and then cooled off against the Ravens and Chiefs. 

 

He's in the midst of a cold streak right now. And it's costing us W's because of the injuries and age of the defense. We are going to need the hot streaks to last longer and the cold streaks to not be quite so freezing if the Bills D is not going to be elite in the regular season like it once was. 

 

Contrast that with Mahomes who is having one of the worst seasons of his career this year, but it just so coincides with him playing with the best defense of his career thus far. One of the travesties of the last three seasons, 2O-22 was that the defense couldn't play to their regular season success in the postseason. Instead of the defense upping their game in the postseason like the Bengals defense has done consistently, with the exception of probably the Ravens game (greatly helped somewhat by 20+mph winds that night) the Bills defense routinely played worse in the postseason. 

[BillStime]

Symptom of coaching.

 

Fix the coaching.

 

[Mikie2times]

16 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I don't know Mikie. He seems to me to be playing pretty much exactly how he has played the last four seasons. He goes through significant hot streaks and cold streaks every season since 2020. In fact 2020, his best overall season to date, may have been the streakiest of all. Absolutely lit it up the first four games of 2020 then cooled off considerably with one great game against Seattle around the middle of the season and then immediately cooled off again and then lit it up again for the final 4 or 5 games that year. Balled out against the Colts in the Wild Card and then cooled off against the Ravens and Chiefs. 

 

He's in the midst of a cold streak right now. And it's costing us W's because of the injuries and age of the defense. We are going to need the hot streaks to last longer and the cold streaks to not be quite so freezing if the Bills D is not going to be elite in the regular season like it once was. 

 

Contrast that with Mahomes who is having one of the worst seasons of his career this year, but it just so coincides with him playing with the best defense of his career thus far. One of the travesties of the last three seasons, 2O-22 was that the defense couldn't play to their regular season success in the postseason. Instead of the defense upping their game in the postseason like the Bengals defense has done consistently, with the exception of probably the Ravens game (greatly helped somewhat by 20+mph winds that night) the Bills defense routinely played worse in the postseason. 

Not going to be crappy towards your post but the Mahomes and Burrow suck as well posts fit right in with what I was saying. Nothing to see, Josh is the same, see this advanced stat, it says he's the best. Look at who you think the best is. They suck as well. Points are down. On and on it goes. Below does not take an advanced degree to understand. It's pretty black and white. 

 

Click the the image to enlarge

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Not going to be crappy towards your post but the Mahomes and Burrow suck as well posts fit right in with what I was saying. Nothing to see, Josh is the same, see this advanced stat, it says he's the best. Look at who you think the best is. They suck as well. Points are down. On and on it goes. Below does not take an advanced degree to understand. It's pretty black and white. 

 

Click the the image to enlarge

 

 

Does this include playoffs? No playoffs? Rushing TD's or just passing? No fumbles loss obviously I guess. 

 

Why 24 games vs. 22 games? Why not an equal split? 

 

Why the break at Green Bay? I know some theorized that Allen was concussed in that game. So if that is the problem are all his issues concussion related? 

 

If it isn't concussion related what else can we specifically point to that may have happened at that exact time and carried over not every week obviously has he has a lot of good games in the 22 game span as well, but more often than the previous 24? 

 

Only 40 TD's in 22 games (funny typing that because it's still a big number for most QB'S) certainly seems to skew the agenda in the other direction for a guy who is on pace for 44 TD's this year, in what would be his 4th consecutive 40+ TD season in 16 and 17 games played. 

 

I think you totally missed my point about Burrow and Mahomes if you think my point was that Burrow and Mahomes suck as well. Don't believe I ever said that, nor would it make any sense. The one QB in Mahomes, for sure better than Allen, sucks? The best QB in the league?? 

 

What I said is that Mahomes is having the worst year of his career thus far. That's not debatable if you look at his numbers. But the stars have aligned, and KC has a really, really good defense this year so they find themselves atop the AFC as usual still. Bills have a bit of a bad luck streak going right now. The D is down, due to age and injury IMO and Allen is in the midst of an in-season slump that we see from him every year.

 

[gobills1212]

Ya dont say...

[90sBills]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

What I said is that Mahomes is having the worst year of his career thus far. That's not debatable if you look at his numbers. But the stars have aligned, and KC has a really, really good defense this year so they find themselves atop the AFC as usual still. Bills have a bit of a bad luck streak going right now. The D is down, due to age and injury IMO and Allen is in the midst of an in-season slump that we see from him every year.

 

Mahomes may be having a down year statistically while KC’s receivers get acclimated but he isn’t costing his team games. That’s the difference. KC is not putting up offensive stats like previous years but they’re still playing sound winning football. That really is all that matters.

 

Allen has made some bizarre decisions that have led to mistakes. I have no doubt that he will turn things around. But it’s too late this season to make a serious championship run while we wait for him to turn his game around. 
 

I also agree with Mikie that it started with the 2nd half of that GB game last year. Everything on offense hasn’t been the same since. 

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Does this include playoffs? No playoffs? Rushing TD's or just passing? No fumbles loss obviously I guess. 

 

Why 24 games vs. 22 games? Why not an equal split? 

 

Why the break at Green Bay? I know some theorized that Allen was concussed in that game. So if that is the problem are all his issues concussion related? 

 

If it isn't concussion related what else can we specifically point to that may have happened at that exact time and carried over not every week obviously has he has a lot of good games in the 22 game span as well, but more often than the previous 24? 

 

Only 40 TD's in 22 games (funny typing that because it's still a big number for most QB'S) certainly seems to skew the agenda in the other direction for a guy who is on pace for 44 TD's this year, in what would be his 4th consecutive 40+ TD season in 16 and 17 games played. 

 

I think you totally missed my point about Burrow and Mahomes if you think my point was that Burrow and Mahomes suck as well. Don't believe I ever said that, nor would it make any sense. The one QB in Mahomes, for sure better than Allen, sucks? The best QB in the league?? 

 

What I said is that Mahomes is having the worst year of his career thus far. That's not debatable if you look at his numbers. But the stars have aligned, and KC has a really, really good defense this year so they find themselves atop the AFC as usual still. Bills have a bit of a bad luck streak going right now. The D is down, due to age and injury IMO and Allen is in the midst of an in-season slump that we see from him every year.

 

It's passing stats only. It would look worse if it included rushing splits. It does include playoffs for both years as the samples are in that range of time. I stopped going backwards at 2021 but it could easily extend into 2020 if you want. It would only further solidify the sample size while showing the same thing.  22 games have been played since from Green Bay and plenty of analysis is out there including a lot by myself that covers Allen and his problems from Green Bay on. So it's not like it's some arbitrary cut off. People have been noticing regression post Green Bay since last year. He has 7 TD's in two games this year and 11 TD and 10 INT in the other 8. We are not a ball control team, we have no chance at winning when we are sitting at a 1 to 1 TD/INT ration which has been most of the year. He's currently on his longest INT streak of his career for consecutive games with a pic. He is not playing at a level that we saw in previous years. That doesn't mean he isn't capable of turning it around. It's where he is at right now and it was similar enough to the 2nd half of last season to logically connect them together. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Mikie2times

[ExiledInIllinois]

Allen is this generation's Brett Favre.  Just needs to win one to shut people up.

[Airseven]

A strong arm and running ability does not a “no doubt” first ballot HOF talent make.

[vanislebills44]

put incentives in his contract for when he utilizes a checkdown and doesnt force throws into tight coverage...something anything...

mind you im sure a few of those picks were like the davis one where its dropped or tipped 

he must realize possession is 9/10ths of the law and not so recklessly risk unnecessary throws when the checkdown could walk for 10yards...

not every 1st down consists of 15-20yard plays...

he doesnt seem to have the mindset 4 a long slow grinding 4yard avg play drive, boring maybe but you are paid millions to win games and that is it pure and simple

[Buffalo Ballin]

9 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

All I did was look at Mahomes to see you didn't even bother checking and just throwing stuff out there.

 

in order: 1, 12, 5, 6, 13, 12, 8(current season on pace for record high of 15)

 

That's low INT numbers per season. EXTREMELY LOW.

 

5 INT for an entire season.

6 INT for an entire season.

12 INT for an entire season is respectable.

 

You probably hate Patrick Mahomes. That's why you singled him out among the other QBs I listed. So be it. But Josh Allen INT numbers per season aren't anything close to 9 and below.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Buffalo Ballin

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

 

That's low INT numbers per season. EXTREMELY LOW.

 

5 INT for an entire season.

6 INT for an entire season.

12 INT for an entire season is respectable.

 

You probably hate Patrick Mahomes. That's why you singled him out among the other QBs I listed. So be it. But Josh Allen INT numbers per season aren't anything close to 9 and below.

I don’t hate Mahomes at all. I singled him out because he is a current QB and the best. I also know that his ints have been around the same as Josh last year and this year. 
 

you originally said that his ints have come down over the course. Obviously they haven’t. Now you are moving goal posts and trying to make up some narrative that I hate him. You lose. 

[juno999]

I want Allen to make better decisions with the ball.  Interceptions are going to happen but he seems to be forcing the ball at times.  Throwing into double coverage too often.

[Amorgus]

 

We can only wonder how much of this is on Josh when the front office only signs receivers from the Hot Dog Finger universe. 

[ProcessTruster]

23 hours ago, Wraith said:

I think the Josh Allen turnover narrative is greatly overstated. Passing volume and randomness significantly affect people's perception. Your own link show's that Allen is much better than average at interception % for his career, despite supposedly being a gunslinger. Even this year, his interception rate is basically equal to Peyton Manning's career mark. 

 

The other thing is just random luck. Through the first eight weeks of the season, Allen had 8 interceptions and two fumbles on 7 total turn-over worthy plays, in the opinion of Pro Football Focus. That means that literally every mistake Allen was making was getting picked and then some. That is not a normal rate. Every quarterback benefits from defensive backs inability to reliably catch but this year randomness has not been in Allen's favor. Meanwhile, the Bills defense has not had an interception since the Miami game six weeks ago. How many picks did they drop against Baker Mayfield two weeks ago? My count was three.

 

 

 

seems like the law of averages is about to shine in the Bills favor

[FilthyBeast]

Allen has always been a turnover machine per se as evidenced by him leading the league since he's been in it.

 

But in the past this wasn't at the forefront because the team was winning games, and in some cases by large margins.

 

Not that this team is an also ran it's a major issue and all the more reason you need a true 'QB whisperer' offensive mind type as the next head coach in Buffalo if there is any real chance of a second super bowl window opening in the next 3 - 5 years.