The elephant in the room that there is no thread about - Josh Allen has a severe turnover problem

[Kaenon]

I mean Peyton Manning had 110 INTs in his first 6 seasons.

 

Josh has only 71 through 5.5 season...

[34-78-83]

11 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Threads like this one make me consider going cold turkey on the message boards.

Yep its an odd addiction that we have.

 

Here's an elephant to add to the room... During that same span of time, doesn't Josh have more games played than almost every other QB?

Oooh another elephant (hope the room is big enough)... During that same span of time doesn't Josh have the most total Touchdowns?

 

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by 34-78-83

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I think the turnover narrative is way over-blown. Josh has about 6 BAD turnovers this year (fumbles vs Jets and Denver, INT vs Pats, Jets, Broncos, Bengals). 

 

The rest are a combination of game scenario and bad luck.

 

"Arm punts" on 3rd and long from our side of the field and taking a deep shot. Losing a fumble on a hook and ladder vs Patriots on a last second desperation play. Davis letting a perfect throw go right through his hands. Tipped throws at the LOS. DB's making great catches and our WR's not breaking up 50/50 throws (some overlap here with arm punts). 

 

 

[GoBills808]

this was an INT lol

 

 

 

[Logic]

10 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Maybe more WCO principles might be the best scheme for Josh. Have him focus more on timing and throwing to a spot rather than trying to diagnose and dissect post snap. Of course that would depend on an OC who is good at scheming and designing plays.

Funnily enough, I was thinking the opposite. I've been thinking that more of an Air Coryell style, with deep and intermediate play-action built off of a potent running game, is the best way to harness Josh's powers.

It's weird that the worst year to date for Josh throwing interceptions also happens to be his BEST year to date for completion percentage. Obviously, some of the "dink and dunk" and "playing it safe" has been due to opposing defenses playing lots of two-high coverage, but...I'd like to see the return of "bombs away" Josh. Not that west coast offense CAN'T be an aggressive downfield passing offense -- Andy Reid's offense is based in west coast principles and clearly the Chiefs don't usually have issues with passing production -- but it's not normally the first thing I think of what that system.

Josh is great off of playaction, he's great intermediate and deep, and he has maybe the strongest arm in NFL history. I'd like to see whatever system he's in next feature lots of pocket movement, designed rollouts, and aggressive downfield passing. I'd like it to be a system that de-emphasizes rocket science level thinking and coordination between the QB and receivers, as Dorsey's offense seemed to, and emphasizes letting the players play fast and attack and not think quite so damn much.
 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I’m still questioning if he has a turnover issue or not.
 

turnovers and Josh Allen are absolutely not a new thing. He doesn’t suddenly lead the league in turnovers since 2018 because he has 50 turnovers in the first eight games this year. He’s accumulated a high number of turnovers every single year yet he’s been an elite quarterback each of the last four seasons dating back to  2020.

 

so it begs the question, is it turnovers that are really the issue right now? He’s shown a remarkable consistency of being able to maintain an elite level of play even while turning the ball over far more than league average.
 

I believe it was just a short two weeks ago, that Allen fell into the following categories:

 

1st in TD’s

1st in completion %
1st in QBR

#1 rated PFF QB

Tied for 1st in Interceptions (tied with Mahomes, Hurts and like 5 other QB’s)

 

Rather than look at the turnovers, I might actually consider the issue being Josh Allen is not leading enough scoring drives.
 

Yes, he has the most total touchdowns of all quarterbacks but through just 10 games he has, even for him, an unusually high number of rushing touchdowns on the year so far. In a normal year, two or three of those rushing touchdowns could’ve gone to the running backs, and Allen should have two or three more passing touchdowns on the year if he were to maintain the same number of total touchdowns on the year.

 

What you would end up with is as a Bills team that would have two or three more touchdowns on the year. Even just two or three more touchdowns in a few of our one score loss games, would mean the difference of two more W’s in the win column.

[GoBills808]

this was also an INT

 

 

thats our best skill player Diggs 1v1 w both hands on the ball against Darious Williams

[Roundybout]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

this was an INT lol

 

 

 

But he threw it too fast :(((

 

Remember the 2020 Denver game where he threw a ball to Jake Kumerow that broke the sound barrier and Kumerow still caught it?

[Buffalo Ballin]

Tom Brady

Peyton Manning

Aaron Rodgers

Steve Young

Joe Montana

Patrick Mahomes

Donovan McNabb

 

All reduced their INTs as the years went on. Jalen Hurts is not throwing many INTs either and he has a long way to go.

 

Our Josh Allen better get it together. The Madden Cover Curse is alive and well.

 

 

[Wraith]

9 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

But he threw it too fast :(((

 

Remember the 2020 Denver game where he threw a ball to Jake Kumerow that broke the sound barrier and Kumerow still caught it?

🤣 In a year in which I have heard a lot of dumb football punditry, the idea that Allen threw too hard to Gabe Davis on that play might be the single dumbest. There were 20 freakin' yards between Allen and Davis on that play. That play to Kumerow is one of my favorites of all time.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Wraith

[MikePJ76]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

Tom Brady

Peyton Manning

Aaron Rodgers

Steve Young

Joe Montana

Patrick Mahomes

Donovan McNabb

 

All reduced their INTs as the years went on. Jalen Hurts is not throwing many INTs either and he has a long way to go.

 

Our Josh Allen better get it together. The Madden Cover Curse is alive and well.

 

 

Please never ever ever again compare Donovan Mcnabb in any way shape or form to Josh Allen again...thanks.

 

 

[Wraith]

Wayne Arnold posted these in another thread:

 

 

[Roundybout]

5 minutes ago, Wraith said:

🤣 In a year in which I have heard a lot of dumb football punditry, the idea that Allen threw too hard to Gabe Davis on that play might be the single dumbest. There were 20 freakin' yards between Allen and Davis on that play. That play to Kumerow is one of my favorites of all time.

So I actually went with some friends to see Josh speak at UB a few months back, and he said that was his favorite touchdown of his career that he’s ever thrown 

[BuffaloBill]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

Great point.

 

There hasn't been enough discussion about Josh's turnovers in the media and on this message board and by Josh himself and by the coaches who are both here and fired.

 

I think we're all happy you created this thread.

 

 

This is an internet message board so I will quietly golf clap as I consider your valuable input.

[John from Riverside]

It would be extremely helpful if our wide receivers were not slowing down Josh Allen’s rocket passes by dropping them to be intercepted

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

This is an internet message board so I will quietly golf clap as I consider your valuable input.

Don’t ever quietly golf clap, that needs to be done like James worthy

[Wraith]

 

 

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Ok, I hear what your saying and that is a good idea. 

But one thing I am so confused about is the turnovers. I get the sense these are bad. And when we have them, we lose more. I wonder if they have tried asking him to stop? 

Has anybody asked somebody on the team if they maybe tried asking him to stop? Who is the asker I need to ask to do the asking of Josh to stop doing the thing? 

Diggs.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

It’s a part of his game that he has to work on improving. I’m sure he’d be the first to say that. If you DARE suggest that JA17 isn’t perfection personified, you will be drawn and quartered in this and other forums. The same could have been said for McProcess, but that tide is turning. 

[Mikie2times]

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Mikie2times

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

1 hour ago, Chugga said:

That’s not the elephant in the room.  The elephant is definitely the fact that the star WRs brother is openly talking trash on his QB and the WR hasn’t addressed this.  Completely unacceptable that Diggs is letting his bro mouth off like this.  Thats your QB that’s your teammate.  You want to talk about Allen’s numbers before Diggs, well look at Diggs numbers before Allen.  Maybe Allen’s brother or sister need to start posting on twitter about how dangerous the Bills offense would be if they didn’t trade that 1st rounder and drafted Justin Jefferson instead.

 

Dont get me wrong I love Stefon Diggs he’s my favorite current Bill, but he’s losing me quickly by not sticking up for his QB.

I hadn’t thought about this, but I tend to agree …. All Steph would need do is to message his bro in private and tell him to cease and desist 

[Wraith]

57 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

That guy is really pushy the ‘turnover worthy’ narrative. It’s not the same as actual turnovers.

The reason you should look at turnover worthy plays rather than turnovers when assessing an individual quarterback's play is obvious and you would have to be willfully obtuse to not see it.

 

Tell me, which one of these was the better throw? Which one of these was the turn-over worthy play?

 

A) Earlier this season against Miami, Terrel Bernard fumbled a Tua pass directly into the handles of Jalen Waddle. It goes in the books as long reception.

B) In 2020, Allen threw a pass to Tyler Kroft who catches it cleanly before getting stripped of the ball while on the ground. It gets recorded as an interception.

[colin]

Allen does WHAT?

 

when did this start happening and why wasn't i informed?

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, MikePJ76 said:

My thoughts are this, Josh Allen is the villain and the reason for the losing narrative is making me mental.  An interception in the first quarter is no more harmful to the outcome of the game than a Pass Interference penalty on the most crucial play of the game or an inexcusable 12 man penalty on a field goal,  Its just easy for the narrative to be fed to the simpletons who watch football that the qb is the problem.

 

Pass goes right through the hands of Gabe Davis and is intercepted in the redzone costing the team a minimum of 3 points and more realistically 7 points......Davis is the culprit yet the tv cameras show close up shots of Josh Allen, then they show his interception numbers and Joe Buck and Troy Aikman say he is the reason for the teams troubles and say he throws the ball too hard.  The simpletons at home gobble it up and take the easy road and blame him.  

 

in the most crucial moment for the offense in the fourth quarter Allen made a huge pass play and then ultimately ran in the go ahead score.  Just like vs NY, Tampa, New England, the playoffs at KC, playoffs vs Miami...etc.

 

John Elway once said "they pay me to win on third downs and score td's in the red zone"  

 

Its time this organization lines up behind him and stands with him.  

 

When star players brothers are saying he is nothing without his brother.....this is a serious red flag.  

 

This type of stuff needs to be stopped.  

 

Everyone on the staff and most of the players here are replaceable....think you can't find another stephon diggs? James Cook? Ed oliver? etc.....nonsense.....Josh Allen....you might wait 25 years or more for another one.

 

Allen will outlast the staff, the front office and the roster.  The organization needs to end all this talk in the media and the BS narrative about this player.  He needs to know he is not going to be leveraged here into new jobs for coaches and as a scapegoat for other players to shed their share of blame.

 

To quote Bill Parcells, "This is a replacement business"  another quote from parcells on qb's...."you can't just dial 1-800 quarterback and get another one"

 

Bills fans and the local Bills media need to really take that to heart.  What is going on right now with the narrative is insanity to me.

 

Josh is a great talent.  All rational Bills fans want him here for a long time.  But it is also absolutely true that he needs to stop turning the ball over so much.  He is not immune to criticism.

Edited November 15, 2023 by oldmanfan

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, julian said:

Yes he does and always will, some years will be better than others, but what he doesn’t have a problem with us scoring TDs. Allen is a more athletic Brett Favre and that’s just what it is.

 

 Packers were able to overcome the turnovers and catch a title, hopefully the Bills can do the same or better.

pretty much this. In far less words, you basically summed up my post on this topic.

 

Assuming Allan plays all 17 games this year, and last year he only needed 16, he’s a pretty safe bet to have his fourth straight 40+ touchdown season. That’s elite level quarterback play.

 

This does look like one of those years though we’re Allen could put in 20+ turnovers and have somewhere around a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Such a ratio is considered above average if not elite in the 90s. But by today’s standards you’re looking for 3:1 ratio, if not better.

2 minutes ago, colin said:

Allen does WHAT?

 

when did this start happening and why wasn't i informed?

exactly.

 

He’s only been doing it since he came into the league and yet somehow he’s been an elite quarterback since 2020.

 

So do we really have a turnover issue?

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, MikePJ76 said:

The first TO was a fumble by cook that led to a field goal.

 

The Allen INT. in the first quarter led to no points for Denver and would have been a minimum of 3 for Buffalo.

 

yes the interception vs new england led to a pats TD....then buffalo got the ball back and allen threw a TD pass that was negated because of an offensive pass interference call.  they kicked a field goal.  In the fourth quarter in the 4 minute drill Allen leads a go ahead scoring drive by running it in for a td to give buffalo the lead.  The defense then blows the game......now the offensive pass interference call on Murray cost the bills 4 points.....they lost by 4 points, allen hit kincaid on the play for a td.

 

At the most crucial times Allen led the team back to take the lead.  You can make the case that the OPI was just as harmful as the int vs new england.  No one will though because the narrative is Allen is a turnover machine because they heard it on espn.

 

Turnovers are a part of the game, if you are going to have to pass to survive because you refuse to run the ball then the odds of turnovers happening is going to go up no matter who the qb is.

 

you know what else are a part of the game?  Takeaways.  Yes the defense has killer injuries but allowing teams to control the clock and push them up and down the field and make big plays when they want is just as bad as any turnover from the offense.

 

The defensive gaffes and penalties late in these games whether its missed tackles, dead ball mental mistakes or The P.I.'s are every bit and maybe more a problem than a few first quarter interceptions.

Exactly. TO’s matter. TOs in your own territory almost always lead to points.

 

It’s like the statistic most correlated to wins and losses. not PI’s, not missed tackles, not penalties.

 

This is wrong from 70 years of football data. I’m sorry.

[MikePJ76]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Josh is a greatcc BFF talent.  All rational Bills fans want him here for a long time.  But it is also absolutely true that he needs to stop turning the ball over so much.  He is not immune to criticism.

fine.

 

but the criticism should be above grade school level nonsense screaming he is a turnover machine because they heard it on espn or some dumb twitter guy who watches the all 22.

 

Also view the games and the result in its entirety and do not cherry pick the spots where some peoples mistakes are catastrophic and others equal mistakes are just part of the game or in most cases simply forgotten because they don't do closeups of those guys when they make mistakes.

 

Was allen's int before the half really a poor decision. Yes.  did it cost them the game?  NOPE.  Does it warrant obsessing over and being used to scapegoat all the other problems....NOPE.  Did a whole bunch of other people make mistakes in the game, YEP.  Were there actual crucial mistakes made that cost them the game YEP.

 

 

 

 

[Goin Breakdown]

So what I've read is 8 lost fumbles and 11 picks. 19 TO in 10 games. Dang. That's both on coaching and players. Fundamentals. 

[Your Brown Eye]

I want the Allen who will throw an interception, go to the sidelines, punch his lineman in the face and lead his team to victory. Now we have a Allen who throws an interception, sulks over to the sideline, flicks his long hair back and sits there stoically trying to impress commercial producers for his next commercial shoot.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Wraith said:

I think the Josh Allen turnover narrative is greatly overstated. Passing volume and randomness significantly affect people's perception. Your own link show's that Allen is much better than average at interception % for his career, despite supposedly being a gunslinger. Even this year, his interception rate is basically equal to Peyton Manning's career mark. 

 

The other thing is just random luck. Through the first eight weeks of the season, Allen had 8 interceptions and two fumbles on 7 total turn-over worthy plays, in the opinion of Pro Football Focus. That means that literally every mistake Allen was making was getting picked and then some. That is not a normal rate. Every quarterback benefits from defensive backs inability to reliably catch but this year randomness has not been in Allen's favor. Meanwhile, the Bills defense has not had an interception since the Miami game six weeks ago. How many picks did they drop against Baker Mayfield two weeks ago? My count was three.

 

 

 

building on the "bad luck" point check out this odd stat:

 

[Bruffalo]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

building on the "bad luck" point check out this odd stat:

 

It's almost like context matters more than raw numbers.  That's way more nuanced then a lot of folks have the ability to process though.

[TSOL]

A bunch of Josh's ints's are on passes that went right through his receivers hands. 

 

Also, you know who else used to throw his fair share of ints? Jim Kelley 

 

When you pass the ball a ton, sometimes some get away from you. It's the nature of being that gunslinger type of passer. 

 

I don't put all the blame on Josh, our receivers suck this year. 

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, TSOL said:

A bunch of Josh's ints's are on passes that went right through his receivers hands. 

 

Also, you know who else used to throw his fair share of ints? Jim Kelley 

 

When you pass the ball a ton, sometimes some get away from you. It's the nature of being that gunslinger type of passer. 

 

I don't put all the blame on Josh, our receivers suck this year. 

Think about the great pass Allen threw against the Jags that Diggs had BOTH hands on at the 5 yard line and the ball was wrestled away by the DB for an INT.  Diggs is a great WR but he's average on those kinds of balls.  And the Bills have been without a WR that can routinely make those kinds of catches since Allen has been here.

 

 

[Negan]

I wonder how many of the interception were his receivers fault dropping passes?

[Prospector]

Maybe it's related to another problem

[oldmanfan]

18 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

fine.

 

but the criticism should be above grade school level nonsense screaming he is a turnover machine because they heard it on espn or some dumb twitter guy who watches the all 22.

 

Also view the games and the result in its entirety and do not cherry pick the spots where some peoples mistakes are catastrophic and others equal mistakes are just part of the game or in most cases simply forgotten because they don't do closeups of those guys when they make mistakes.

 

Was allen's int before the half really a poor decision. Yes.  did it cost them the game?  NOPE.  Does it warrant obsessing over and being used to scapegoat all the other problems....NOPE.  Did a whole bunch of other people make mistakes in the game, YEP.  Were there actual crucial mistakes made that cost them the game YEP.

 

 

 

 

I believe if you look at it one of the stats that have passed the test of time is that teams that lose the turnover battle lose games.  
 

And yes, other people make mistakes and are held accountable.  Josh should be no different.

11 minutes ago, TSOL said:

A bunch of Josh's ints's are on passes that went right through his receivers hands. 

 

Also, you know who else used to throw his fair share of ints? Jim Kelley 

 

When you pass the ball a ton, sometimes some get away from you. It's the nature of being that gunslinger type of passer. 

 

I don't put all the blame on Josh, our receivers suck this year. 

True about Kelly.  Also true that we never won a SB with him as great as he was.

[fergie's ire]

I wish someone in the media had thought to mention this before.

[34-78-83]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

I believe if you look at it one of the stats that have passed the test of time is that teams that lose the turnover battle lose games.  
 

And yes, other people make mistakes and are held accountable.  Josh should be no different.

I don't think anyone with half a brain disputes that.

 

What they dispute (in the most simple sense) is people calling it Josh's turnovers, when they are actually Josh, Cook, Gabe, etc's or "The Bills" turnovers. Yes, the Bills need better ball security.

[jlgarsh]

 

Hard to blame him for TOs like this one. If his guys would catch the ball, he'd have fewer of them. Other turnovers are bad. The 2nd pick vs. the Broncos was the exact same route that was picked versus the Bengals. Only hmdifference was it was Harty instead of Gabe.

 

National media acting like Josh is the main or only problem is asinine though. McDermott and Dorsey messed with his confidence. It's up to Joe Brady to bring it back to life.

[CincyBillsFan]

14 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

It's almost like context matters more than raw numbers.  That's way more nuanced then a lot of folks have the ability to process though.

More on why context is important.  I posted this on another thread where a guy was holding out Burrow as an example of everything Allen isn't with respect to TO's:

 

"Let's be clear here:  Burrow has a total of 14 TD's and 6 INT's and 1 LOST FUMBLE.  I don't care about "fumbles" only lost fumbles.  Allen has 26 total TD's and 11 INT's and 3 lost fumbles.

 

So Burrow's TD/TO ration is a very good 2 and Allen's is an almost as good 1.85.  Anyway you slice the data the "Allen is a TO machine" narrative is way overblown.  BTW, Burrow's 2 BAD INT's in the 4th quarter against the Texans lost the Bengal's that game.  Allen's TO against Denver ere nowhere near as damaging or as bad."

 

 

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

There have been multiple threads on this but for some odd reason they keep getting deleted as sacrilegious. 
 

also 

Text this to Josh, I’ll bet he would get a big chuckle out of it, or not..,, 😁👍