2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[Ray Stonada]

One issue is that Josh’s team was 6-6 when opinions of the race were gelling. Second thing, maybe more important, is that no MVP has ever led the league in INTs.  So Josh isn’t really in the convo, because that fact makes it too easy for the “Josh is a wild turnover machine” people to feel confirmed in their narrative. 
 

If we beat Miami for the East title, I think Purdy gets it.
 

If Miami wins out and gets the 1 seed, I think Tua or Hill gets it. 

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

One issue is that Josh’s team was 6-6 when opinions of the race were gelling. Second thing, maybe more important, is that no MVP has ever led the league in INTs.  So Josh isn’t really in the convo, because that fact makes it too easy for the “Josh is a wild turnover machine” people to feel confirmed in their narrative. 
 

If we beat Miami for the East title, I think Purdy gets it.
 

If Miami wins out and gets the 1 seed, I think Tua or Hill gets it. 

 

It is the league leading INTs. I have actually been back to look if any MVP QB this century has thrown as many as 15 picks. Manning threw 16 in 2009, but they went 14-0 before dropping their last two. Warner threw 22(!) in 2001 but again in a 14-2 season. And neither led the league in INTs. 

 

I then also did a netting off.... if you net off Josh's TDs (40) against his total turnovers (18) he ends up +22. If you do the same for Purdy he is +22. If you do the same for Dak he is +22. Everyone else is way off that. So there is a case those three just in sheer touchdowns minus turnover calculations should be it.

 

That said... I am on record I'd vote for Tyreek Hill this year myself. I think it has been the year of the plamaker over the year of the Quarterback. And I'd reflect that in my vote.

[Ray Stonada]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

 

That said... I am on record I'd vote for Tyreek Hill this year myself. I think it has been the year of the plamaker over the year of the Quarterback. And I'd reflect that in my vote.

 
I agree about the INTs. Interesting that there is still no clear front runner. I don’t think Dak will get it after losing to Allen and Tua back to back with the 1 seed on the line.

 

Hill’s case might have taken a hit when the Fins won 30-0 without him last week.
 

If either Tua or Purdy win out and throw for 5+ TDs and no picks they can wrap it up. 

 

But if Hill or CMC go wild with stats (maybe 4+ TDs and 200+ yards) the last two weeks they could get it too. 
 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

It helps Allen playing Miami last In Miami. He’ll go scorched earth that game. I think he controls his destiny for MVP.

[balln]

20 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes. His pass catchers had trouble separating all night. The OL lost the battle in the run and pass game. Blitzes weren't picked up, as usual. The run game was non-existent. Cook fumbled one drive away. Harty fumbled one drive away. So yes I believe the only reason we did anything on offense was because of several special plays from Josh. He was Superman and he was Clark Kent. The couple of missed throws were annoying and stuck out because the volume of passing plays was so low. On the whole though there was never any rhythm or consistency to the passing game, against a really poor passing defense. And a lot of that was caused by his teammates.

 

Also Gunner I don't agree with your assessment of the defense. I know the stats are good. But it is Easton Stick missing his top 2 WRs and an OL down to their 3rd center. We should have totally dominated them... I'm talking several consecutive 3 and outs, that sort of thing. We should not have allowed a TD, even after the Harty fumble. Maybe the interim coach bump was real and we were unprepared for what they called. But on the whole I was underwhelmed by the defense. It felt like they did the bare minimum against a talent deficient offense featuring a backup QB, when a really good defense would have had the game won by the start of the 4th quarter.

 

I’m with you. This D is maddening. I’m still NOT sure where AnY of our safeties are in coverage. Other than Hyde covering ridely on a cover zero blitz. They are SO far back in their painfully conservative 2 shell - they are never in a position to make a play on the ball or even be near a WR (we’re talking backups and 3rd teamers in LAC) to attempt to make a pass defense. 

[Orlando Tim]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is the league leading INTs. I have actually been back to look if any MVP QB this century has thrown as many as 15 picks. Manning threw 16 in 2009, but they went 14-0 before dropping their last two. Warner threw 22(!) in 2001 but again in a 14-2 season. And neither led the league in INTs. 

 

I then also did a netting off.... if you net off Josh's TDs (40) against his total turnovers (18) he ends up +22. If you do the same for Purdy he is +22. If you do the same for Dak he is +22. Everyone else is way off that. So there is a case those three just in sheer touchdowns minus turnover calculations should be it.

 

That said... I am on record I'd vote for Tyreek Hill this year myself. I think it has been the year of the plamaker over the year of the Quarterback. And I'd reflect that in my vote.

Tyreek is definitely behind CMC to me since CMC can attack in every possible manner, and Tyreek is "just" a dominate receiver. I always think when discussing MVP part of the equations should be who does the other team fear, and Purdy is not in the conversation but Hill and CMC are. 

[BeastMaster]

14 minutes ago, Orlando Tim said:

Tyreek is definitely behind CMC to me since CMC can attack in every possible manner, and Tyreek is "just" a dominate receiver. I always think when discussing MVP part of the equations should be who does the other team fear, and Purdy is not in the conversation but Hill and CMC are. 

Put me down as a CMC for MVP guy if it's not Josh

 

He is the heartbeat and the engine for that SF team

 

You take him out of their lineup, and it changes everything

[balln]

17 hours ago, mrags said:

This——-^ 

 

thank you 

 

fwiw, I don’t really care about the MVP. I want to win the whole damn thing. But it’s seriously funny how he isn’t getting much play for the MVP, especially on a Bills message board no less, considering he is leading the league total of TDs by 7 over Hurts, 9 more than Purdy, and 10 more than Dak. Yet somehow all these guys are in the MVP talk more than Josh is. All because of a few extra ints. 

Bigger markets 

[Chandler#81]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It helps Allen playing Miami last In Miami. He’ll go scorched earth that game. I think he controls his destiny for MVP.

I’m not positive, but I believe the voting is complete before the regular season ends, ala Pro Bowl voting. But if it comes down to Tua vs Josh that’s a different story, given they’re Division foes with a game left to be played.

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Chandler#81

[Scott7975]

[BADOLBILZ]

13 hours ago, folz said:

 

 

I'm not saying that Josh should get the MVP, but I do find it interesting that people seem to overlook his rushing yards/TDs in the comparisons to other QBs. When you evaluate Christian McCaffrey, you don't overlook his receiving yards/TDs because he is a running back.

 

Player     Total Yards (Pass/Rush/Rec)      Total TDs (Pass/Rush/Rec)   INTs (for QBs)

Tua                           4,267                                           26                               10

Josh                         4,191                                            40                               15

Dak                          4,129                                            32                                7

Brock*                      3,933                                           31                                7

 

CMC*                       1,801                                            20

Tyreek                     1,656                                            12

Mostert                   1,187                                             21

 

*At this point, Brock and CMC have played 1 fewer game than all of the rest of the players.

 

In my way of looking at this, CMC eliminates Tyreek and Mostert (because he is definitely ahead of them, so they are out). Mostert shouldn't even be in the covo, and though Tyreek is the most important player on Miami, he's not more important to them than CMC is to San Fran. So, to me, it comes down to CMC vs. the QBs.

 

Tua has the most total yards (only 78 more than Josh)---let's say Brock throws for 300 against Baltimore today (which is unlikely), he'd be at 4,233 (34 yards behind Tua, and 42 yards ahead of Josh). So, the most likely scenario would be Brock jumping Dak, but not Josh and Tua in yards. Josh is way ahead in TDs. Even if Purdy gets 3 today, he's still 6 behind Josh. And, of course, Josh has the most INTs.

 

So, the 4 QBs are all really close in total yards (all within 138 yards of each other---about 9 yards per game only). And record-wise, Josh is one game behind Dak and two behind Tua and Brock. In a team-based sport, I don't think a record that is 1-2 games better is that significant in crowning an MVP (especially when Josh's team blew out both Tua's and Dak's teams).

 

So, it really comes down to TDs vs. INTs and perceptions.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 3 games than Tua, but almost one more TD per game (.933) than Tua. So for every extra pick that Josh throws in comparison to Tua, he scores 3 more TDs. I'll take that any day.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 2 games than Dak, but one more TD per 2 games than Dak. Since not every turnover leads to a TD. I'll take this ratio too.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 2 games than Brock, but almost one more TD per 2 games (.900) than Brock. Again, TDs trump INTs, but this is a bit closer.

 

So, again, I'm not saying Josh should be the MVP, but why shouldn't he be in the conversation when he has the second most total yards in the league and his TD totals at least balance, if not way overcome the extra picks.

 

 

 

Tyreek is WAY more important to Miami than CMC is to SF.

 

Deebo is the difference maker for SF not CMC.........when Deebo is out, they lose..........big RB production has always come easy for Shanahan regardless of who the RB was.

 

Miami is toast without Tyreek.

 

 

[Big Turk]

13 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

One issue is that Josh’s team was 6-6 when opinions of the race were gelling. Second thing, maybe more important, is that no MVP has ever led the league in INTs.  So Josh isn’t really in the convo, because that fact makes it too easy for the “Josh is a wild turnover machine” people to feel confirmed in their narrative. 
 

If we beat Miami for the East title, I think Purdy gets it.
 

If Miami wins out and gets the 1 seed, I think Tua or Hill gets it. 

 

More than anything Josh isn't having defenders drop his INTs at the rates other QBs are. Allen has one of the lowest rates of turnover worthy plays in the NFL...

 

Every week you see a guy who made a crazy INT on Allen drop a gift INT from one of the other QBs. Or have it overturned on replay like Mahomes did today but they manage to hold on while diving against Allen.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Big Turk

[julian]

Going in Allen’s favour is his history of knocking on the MVP door, almost like he’s a proven commodity at this point in the conversation every year.

 

5 game win streak to close out a division title, 2 seed and lead the NFL in TDs just might be enough for writers to give him the nod and basically tell Purdy, Tua and Dak they need to see it again before they get the MVP.

[JTown]

Josh is my Qb.  But he has to stop with the turnovers.  Honestly they would likely be undefeated this season if he took what the defense gave him and made better decisions. 

While I'm sure that a few of his INTs where not all his fault, the majority were.

I think CMC or Hill will get it this year as they can't gift it to Ratboy or Aaron Rodgers.

The media votes and even if Josh had 0 INTs and 50 TDs he would still be snubbed as it is the same media that all said JA17 was inaccurate, A turn over machine, Yada, Yada, yada, when he was drafted.  None of them will ever admit they are wrong or bad at their profession. 

[BullBuchanan]

15 hours ago, folz said:

 

 

I'm not saying that Josh should get the MVP, but I do find it interesting that people seem to overlook his rushing yards/TDs in the comparisons to other QBs. When you evaluate Christian McCaffrey, you don't overlook his receiving yards/TDs because he is a running back.

 

Player     Total Yards (Pass/Rush/Rec)      Total TDs (Pass/Rush/Rec)   INTs (for QBs)

Tua                           4,267                                           26                               10

Josh                         4,191                                            40                               15

Dak                          4,129                                            32                                7

Brock*                      3,933                                           31                                7

 

CMC*                       1,801                                            20

Tyreek                     1,656                                            12

Mostert                   1,187                                             21

 

*At this point, Brock and CMC have played 1 fewer game than all of the rest of the players.

 

In my way of looking at this, CMC eliminates Tyreek and Mostert (because he is definitely ahead of them, so they are out). Mostert shouldn't even be in the covo, and though Tyreek is the most important player on Miami, he's not more important to them than CMC is to San Fran. So, to me, it comes down to CMC vs. the QBs.

 

Tua has the most total yards (only 78 more than Josh)---let's say Brock throws for 300 against Baltimore today (which is unlikely), he'd be at 4,233 (34 yards behind Tua, and 42 yards ahead of Josh). So, the most likely scenario would be Brock jumping Dak, but not Josh and Tua in yards. Josh is way ahead in TDs. Even if Purdy gets 3 today, he's still 6 behind Josh. And, of course, Josh has the most INTs.

 

So, the 4 QBs are all really close in total yards (all within 138 yards of each other---about 9 yards per game only). And record-wise, Josh is one game behind Dak and two behind Tua and Brock. In a team-based sport, I don't think a record that is 1-2 games better is that significant in crowning an MVP (especially when Josh's team blew out both Tua's and Dak's teams).

 

So, it really comes down to TDs vs. INTs and perceptions.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 3 games than Tua, but almost one more TD per game (.933) than Tua. So for every extra pick that Josh throws in comparison to Tua, he scores 3 more TDs. I'll take that any day.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 2 games than Dak, but one more TD per 2 games than Dak. Since not every turnover leads to a TD. I'll take this ratio too.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 2 games than Brock, but almost one more TD per 2 games (.900) than Brock. Again, TDs trump INTs, but this is a bit closer.

 

So, again, I'm not saying Josh should be the MVP, but why shouldn't he be in the conversation when he has the second most total yards in the league and his TD totals at least balance, if not way overcome the extra picks.

 

I don't really care that my QB would have made a great running back. I want him to be an elite passer. I also really don't care about TDs for a QB. It's a highly volatile stat that really isn't indicative of a skill, imo. It's more a byproduct of scheme and team skill.

 

 

15 hours ago, folz said:

Player     Total Yards (Pass/Rush/Rec)      Total TDs (Pass/Rush/Rec)   INTs (for QBs)

Tua                           4,267                                           26                               10

Josh                         4,191                                            40                               15

Dak                          4,129                                            32                                7

Brock*                      3,933                                           31                                7

 

CMC*                       1,801                                            20

Tyreek                     1,656                                            12

Mostert                   1,187                                             21

 

*At this point, Brock and CMC have played 1 fewer game than all of the rest of the players.

 

In my way of looking at this, CMC eliminates Tyreek and Mostert (because he is definitely ahead of them, so they are out). Mostert shouldn't even be in the covo, and though Tyreek is the most important player on Miami, he's not more important to them than CMC is to San Fran. So, to me, it comes down to CMC vs. the QBs.

 

Tua has the most total yards (only 78 more than Josh)---let's say Brock throws for 300 against Baltimore today (which is unlikely), he'd be at 4,233 (34 yards behind Tua, and 42 yards ahead of Josh). So, the most likely scenario would be Brock jumping Dak, but not Josh and Tua in yards. Josh is way ahead in TDs. Even if Purdy gets 3 today, he's still 6 behind Josh. And, of course, Josh has the most INTs.

 

So, the 4 QBs are all really close in total yards (all within 138 yards of each other---about 9 yards per game only). And record-wise, Josh is one game behind Dak and two behind Tua and Brock. In a team-based sport, I don't think a record that is 1-2 games better is that significant in crowning an MVP (especially when Josh's team blew out both Tua's and Dak's teams).

 

So, again, I'm not saying Josh should be the MVP, but why shouldn't he be in the conversation when he has the second most total yards in the league and his TD totals at least balance, if not way overcome the extra picks.

 

You're using outdated info. Like I said, Josh is a full games worth of production behind the top performing QBs in the league. Josh is 6th in yards and Brock Purdy hasn't even played yet. The only thing he'll lead in is TDs, and that's not very impressive on its own unless it was a monster stat unles syou're putting up 50 passing TDs. He's 10th in passer rating before today, and 3rd in QBR.



 

[JGMcD2]

Purdy up to 12 turnovers on the season… his pass catchers lead the league in YAC. 
 

Is he playing McCaffrey into the MVP with this putrid performance??

[Warcodered]

25 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I also really don't care about TDs for a QB.

🤔

 

Interesting take, I guess Purdy decided to work on something you do care about tonight.

[Punch]

27 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I also really don't care about TDs for a QB. It's a highly volatile stat that really isn't indicative of a skill, imo. It's more a byproduct of scheme and team skill.

It doesn't appear to be volatile for Josh Allen, though, right? That much is clear after 4 straight 40 TD seasons.

 

I think he should at least be in consideration for the award though certainly not a lock by any means, but your posts read like you're grasping at straws and playing at contrarian.

[HappyDays]

29 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I also really don't care about TDs for a QB.

 

[jlgarsh]

Josh Allen is the MVP. Purdy can't make it happen without a pro bowl team of weapons carrying him

[Orlando Tim]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

At this point I am blaming you for responding any further, if the ability to score points is not the largest indicator of a good QB then what intelligent discussion can happen? 

[scuba guy]

Well Purdy going down in flames with 3 ints

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, jlgarsh said:

Josh Allen is the MVP. Purdy can't make it happen without a pro bowl team of weapons carrying him

I'd say odds are tomorrow it's a 3 horse race McCaffrey, Allen and Hill.

[HappyDays]

Just now, Orlando Tim said:

At this point I am blaming you for responding any further

 

Don't worry, I gave the post the exact amount of attention it deserved.

[DapperCam]

Purdy is carried by an elite team. It’s like when we crushed the Cowboys because of a huge week by Cook. Except it’s like that every week.

[Ya Digg?]

4 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I'd say odds are tomorrow it's a 3 horse race McCaffrey, Allen and Hill.

If the Ravens win tonight then Jackson will be Included in that…I don’t necessarily agree with it, but he will be 

[Warcodered]

Just now, Ya Digg? said:

If the Ravens win tonight then Jackson will be Included in that…I don’t necessarily agree with it, but he will be 

He's so average this year.

[CincyBillsFan]

16 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

He's so average this year.

The talking heads are so impressed with the Jackson run and it was awesome.  But in the end the Ravens had to settle for a 3rd FG. 

 

 

[Punch]

7 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The talking heads are so impressed with the Jackson run and it was awesome.  But in the end the Ravens had to settle for a 3rd FG. 

 

 

True, but there were 4 seconds left. I'm not sure how much better they could've managed the clock, but it was a solid drive against a good defense on the road.

[balln]

Lamar will be Vegas favorite after tonight. No question

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, balln said:

Lamar will be Vegas favorite after tonight. No question

Gross, he's essentially the who else can we find besides Allen candidate.

[Punch]

Just now, Warcodered said:

Gross, he's essentially the who else can we find besides Allen candidate.

Voters selecting Lamar.

[DapperCam]

Kirk Cousins probably wins this if he didn’t get injured.

[KingBoots8]

I convinced with how Purdy, Hurts, and Lamar played today this award just can’t go to a QB. I honestly believe that CMC gets the award this year, and rightfully so.

[Punch]

Just now, KingBoots8 said:

I convinced with how Purdy, Hurts, and Lamar played today this award just can’t go to a QB. I honestly believe that CMC gets the award this year, and rightfully so.

Despite CMC's play tonight, the 49ers are getting their butts whooped at home. To me, it proves the thesis that he isn't the catalyst of wins and losses but an elite weapon deployed to perfection in an elite offense when all other conditions are ideal. 

[mrags]

Well. Take Purdy out of the MVP race. A 4int game. Still plenty of time to get 5. lol, Purdy is nothing special and I’ve been saying it all year. Game manager with great weapons. That is all. 

[The Wiz]

This might be the most divided MVP voting we have seen in a long time unless someone just turns into an absolute unit the last 2 weeks.

 

All the QBs that were front runners are falling off and the skill players are in the mix with Allen (you know, the guy that leads the nfl in TDs).

Edited December 26, 2023 by The Wiz

[JGMcD2]

Darnold ripping off a TD drive is just evidence a mildly competent QB can succeed in the Shanahan offense. 

[BeastMaster]

35 minutes ago, KingBoots8 said:

I convinced with how Purdy, Hurts, and Lamar played today this award just can’t go to a QB. I honestly believe that CMC gets the award this year, and rightfully so.

I can get behind CMC or Hill as MVP this year, but I do think Allen has to be in the convo should the Bills win out and Allen balls out

[DJB]

Purdy ain’t winning now lol