Starting CB2...

[eball]

I often question the overall mental acuity of visitors to this site.

 

I think there are several givens here:

 

1 - you draft players in the 1st round you hope/expect to be above-average starters on your football team

2 - not all 1st round draft picks live up to this expectation (the “bust” rate — defined as non-Pro Bowl, <50 starts for career — is historically around 30%)

3 - if you “miss” on a 1st round draft pick, you have to fix it through lower round draft picks or FA

 

History says that 3 out of 10 times you’re going to miss on your 1st round pick.  The premise of this thread isn’t to give Beane a “break” for missing on Elam (if that is the case), but to ask a question about whether the team is in bad shape with three competent CB2 options.

 

 

[uticaclub]

Another hole in the roster that Josh Allen makes up for

[Orlando Tim]

8 hours ago, Airseven said:

Learning by fire isn’t worth the downside. He doesn’t grasp zone and he grabs at wideouts to keep up. He was handsy in college and now he’s stuck in an unnatural assignment. 
 

It should be reiterated Beane traded UP for Elam.

You and I disagree on where we are on him, which is no big deal, but my point on the throw him into the fire is that he will either learn quickly or we will learn he is a sunk cost. That being said he did play 50% of the snaps last year on a great defense so maybe we are all being too nitpicky. 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Orlando Tim said:

You and I disagree on where we are on him, which is no big deal, but my point on the throw him into the fire is that he will either learn quickly or we will learn he is a sunk cost. That being said he did play 50% of the snaps last year on a great defense so maybe we are all being too nitpicky. 

 

I thought he played pretty well when he was out there last year for the most part and by the end of the year he was basically the starter in the playoffs (he started one, Dane started one, but Kaiir played more snaps than Dane in both). The worry is it sounds like he has been outperformed by Jackson and Benford in camp and has been disappointing in pre-season. At some point he has to earn his way onto the field in order to keep working those kinks out and perfecting his transitions in zone. 

[BarleyNY]

41 minutes ago, eball said:

I often question the overall mental acuity of visitors to this site.

 

I think there are several givens here:

 

1 - you draft players in the 1st round you hope/expect to be above-average starters on your football team

2 - not all 1st round draft picks live up to this expectation (the “bust” rate — defined as non-Pro Bowl, <50 starts for career — is historically around 30%)

3 - if you “miss” on a 1st round draft pick, you have to fix it through lower round draft picks or FA

 

History says that 3 out of 10 times you’re going to miss on your 1st round pick.  The premise of this thread isn’t to give Beane a “break” for missing on Elam (if that is the case), but to ask a question about whether the team is in bad shape with three competent CB2 options.

 

 

 

To answer your question at the end about how the team is doing at CB2, I’d say it’s serviceable. Let’s face it. If the Bills we’re happy with the guy who is starting now, then they wouldn’t have drafted Elam. But I also don’t look at CB2 in a vacuum. By itself it’s not so big a deal. But add in what we are looking at with our current MLB situation and the lack of pass rush I expect until Von Miller gets back to full health (if that ever happens) and I’m concerned with our defense. That doesn’t meant that I don’t really like much of the DL, Milano, Tre, Johnson and our safeties. I do. But I have concerns as to what’ll happen with little pass rush juice while Johnson and Klein (or whomever) are trying to cover. 

[eball]

15 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

To answer your question at the end about how the team is doing at CB2, I’d say it’s serviceable. Let’s face it. If the Bills we’re happy with the guy who is starting now, then they wouldn’t have drafted Elam. But I also don’t look at CB2 in a vacuum. By itself it’s not so big a deal. But add in what we are looking at with our current MLB situation and the lack of pass rush I expect until Von Miller gets back to full health (if that ever happens) and I’m concerned with our defense. That doesn’t meant that I don’t really like much of the DL, Milano, Tre, Johnson and our safeties. I do. But I have concerns as to what’ll happen with little pass rush juice while Johnson and Klein (or whomever) are trying to cover. 

 

My expectation is that McD will manufacture pressure if he can’t rely on the front four…but the Bills are very strong at DT and if Rousseau continues his progression along with Floyd and Epenesa, even without Von I think they’ll be ok to begin the season.

 

Elam’s not expensive enough that he really “hurts” them this year, and there is still a chance he “gets it” at some point because we did see some very good play down the stretch last season.

 

Last year’s draft is certainly a big question mark at this point, but it’s early…

 

[bobobonators]

Elam just turned 22. He will be 22 this entire season. He’s super young - let him develop. 

[White Linen]

13 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

As with all things it depends. If you are just talking play on the field then no it doesn’t matter much. If either are capable solid #2 CBs(assuming White is back to form) then the defense will be fine. However if you are talking about cap management, a #1 draft pick that is sitting on the sidelines is a massive waste of cap dollars that could have been allocated elsewhere.

 

No,  because the value you'd be getting out of the 5th rounder evens it right back out.

[SoCal Deek]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't care which of the 3 wins the job if they then perform. But it is legit to say that a 1st rounder who can't beat out a former 7th rounder and a 6th rounder from his own class by year 2 is a bust of some description. 

 

And I hope if Benford or Jackson win it they have a plan that still involves Elam vs Tyreek

I wouldn’t go so far as to call Elam a bust. It could be that the later round player just happens to be really good. That’s not Elam’s fault. 

[Don Otreply]

9 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

And that’s the rub. The Bills have tried to improve on Jackson, but it hasn’t worked out yet. 

Jackson is a minor upgrade from Levi Wallace, and Wallace was mediocre at best, our “contain/shell” style defense is what needs adjustment, not tossed out per say,  but adjusted to take better advantage of player skills, why they picked an aggressive man coverage CB for a soft zone defense, and then not use him to his skill set is kinda Billsy, we shall see how this plays out won’t we…, 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I thought he played pretty well when he was out there last year for the most part and by the end of the year he was basically the starter in the playoffs (he started one, Dane started one, but Kaiir played more snaps than Dane in both). The worry is it sounds like he has been outperformed by Jackson and Benford in camp and has been disappointing in pre-season. At some point he has to earn his way onto the field in order to keep working those kinks out and perfecting his transitions in zone. 

 

His pick against Miami was pretty much a game saver. We were down 4 at that point.

 

We play in a division with a ton of speedy WRs.  Both Jackson and Benford run in the mid 4.5's, while Elam ran a sub 4.4.  You basically can't play man if ur starting either of the other guys.  My expectation is he has the job by end of year unless jackson and benford can make plays.  

 

Last year is a tough e v a l because all 3 played in various roles, on various sides of the field.  Run fits and tackling matter as well, and thats usually something a coach will gripe with a young player on especially in camp.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

It is harder to start on a team with a great roster as opposed to a team with a bad roster.  Sounds simple but many people that post on this site fail to remember that.  It appears to me that the Bills are equally comfortable with all three of these guys.  It's crazy to consider Elam a bust, if he doesn't win the starting job.  Benford may just be a great talent that was under scouted by the NFL and almost fell through the cracks.  It happens in every draft.  It is also very possible that Jackson has responded to some very good coaching and has developed into a very good player.  I believe that the Bills are in a very great position because they have four starting caliber corners.  One of them will start opposite White but it does not mean the other two are busts.  If any of these three guys hit waivers, they would be gone in a heart beat and would probably be starting on another team.  It is very rare for a team to play an entire season without having a CB miss a game due to injury.  The Bills are in an elite position to deal with that eventuality.

[Alphadawg7]

16 hours ago, eball said:

...so, I know a lot of folks are ready with the pitchforks for Beane if Elam doesn't win the CB2 job, and certainly that is a disappointing result given his draft status...but if Benford wins the job because he is a player who was severely under-drafted but is actually very good, and the Bills still have a guy like Elam (who has talent) for depth, is it really a problem?

 

 

I think this is what people miss on this topic.  They look at it that if Elam doesn't win it then it means Elam was not good, which isn't the case, he has had a good camp.  Its just that we have 3 guys all having good camps at the same position.  Which to me is a good thing.

 

Personally, I think CB2 is going to be less about who starts and more about defensive calls and matchups.  I can see for example Elam out there more on press/man coverage and Dane or Benford more zone for example.  So I am not convinced that whoever wins CB2 is going to dominate the snaps like Tre does in regard to "starting".

[BillsShredder83]

If he needs another half season or season to grow into zone, I'm fine with it. In the mean time he's a nice chess piece for pressing Kelce, Tyreek, Chase. 

 

Wish we'd find a way to get him involved with some hybrid man/zone schemes like were going to need for the receivers listed above. Also, great piece to have on blitzing plays

[RoyBatty is alive]

17 hours ago, eball said:

...so, I know a lot of folks are ready with the pitchforks for Beane if Elam doesn't win the CB2 job, and certainly that is a disappointing result given his draft status...but if Benford wins the job because he is a player who was severely under-drafted but is actually very good, and the Bills still have a guy like Elam (who has talent) for depth, is it really a problem?

 

No, of course not only for people that are rigid in their thought.

 

It is like the criticism John Lunch and the 49ers are getting over how much they spent on Trey Lance and he is a third string QB.  Meanwhile at the same time they dont acknowledge their starter was Mr Irrelevant, last man in the draft Brock Purdy.  In the total analysis, does it really matter?  Important thing is that got their QB.

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

It is harder to start on a team with a great roster as opposed to a team with a bad roster.  Sounds simple but many people that post on this site fail to remember that.  It appears to me that the Bills are equally comfortable with all three of these guys.  It's crazy to consider Elam a bust, if he doesn't win the starting job.  Benford may just be a great talent that was under scouted by the NFL and almost fell through the cracks.  It happens in every draft.  It is also very possible that Jackson has responded to some very good coaching and has developed into a very good player.  I believe that the Bills are in a very great position because they have four starting caliber corners.  One of them will start opposite White but it does not mean the other two are busts.  If any of these three guys hit waivers, they would be gone in a heart beat and would probably be starting on another team.  It is very rare for a team to play an entire season without having a CB miss a game due to injury.  The Bills are in an elite position to deal with that eventuality.

I think this is close to the answer. The Bills are just really, really good at scouting CBs.  There are CBs drafted and released by the Bills still playing for other teams (Wildgoose, Seymour, etc.).  They have trouble scouting other positions like WR and RB and maybe MLB but they know how to evaluate a cornerback like maybe no other franchise.  Way too early to call Elam a “bust” but it’s certainly fair to question whether it was a smart pick given his skillset and their ability to find corners late who can fit what they want to do.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Jackson is a minor upgrade from Levi Wallace, and Wallace was mediocre at best, our “contain/shell” style defense is what needs adjustment, not tossed out per say,  but adjusted to take better advantage of player skills, why they picked an aggressive man coverage CB for a soft zone defense, and then not use him to his skill set is kinda Billsy, we shall see how this plays out won’t we…, 

Good point. I wondered if drafting Elam was a sign of changes in scheme or just a matter of taking the best CB on the board and hoping that he can learn to play zone. I suspected it was the latter since after drafting him they talked about being able to flip man coverage responsibilities between him and Tre White in some of their schemes. 

[BillsFan4]

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/news/2023/08/25/elam-honest-about-rookie-season-struggles

[Buffaloflash]

20 hours ago, Airseven said:

Jackson is CB2. Still.

That is hard to believe.

 

[boco357]

We know Dane Jackson's ceiling.  We dont know Benford's.

[WhoTom]

7 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Jackson is a minor upgrade from Levi Wallace, and Wallace was mediocre at best, our “contain/shell” style defense is what needs adjustment, not tossed out per say,  but adjusted to take better advantage of player skills, why they picked an aggressive man coverage CB for a soft zone defense, and then not use him to his skill set is kinda Billsy, we shall see how this plays out won’t we…, 

 

It was Billsy under previous regimes, but that's not the current M.O. Look at the way they designed an offense to maximize Josh's strengths and hide his weaknesses, and then they worked with him to fix the weaknesses. And they designed a defense to maximize the skillsets of the players.

 

I think this is more likely the case with Elam:

 

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Personally, I think CB2 is going to be less about who starts and more about defensive calls and matchups.  I can see for example Elam out there more on press/man coverage and Dane or Benford more zone for example.  So I am not convinced that whoever wins CB2 is going to dominate the snaps like Tre does in regard to "starting".

 

Edited August 25, 2023 by WhoTom

[Don Otreply]

3 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

It was Billsy under previous regimes, but that's not the current M.O. Look at the way they designed an offense to maximize Josh's strengths and hide his weaknesses, and then they worked with him to fix the weaknesses. And they designed a defense to maximize the skillsets of the players.

 

I think this is more likely the case with Elam:

 

 

I can see your point, but it takes a season or two, (sometimes more) for that concept to come to fruition, instead of drafting / free agency someone that already is talented at what is needed, its in a sense taking the long way around the barn, as the saying goes…,  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

17 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

And that’s the rub. The Bills have tried to improve on Jackson, but it hasn’t worked out yet. 

Because of his positive play, not his competition’s negative play. 

[BananaB]

7 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Jackson is a minor upgrade from Levi Wallace, and Wallace was mediocre at best, our “contain/shell” style defense is what needs adjustment, not tossed out per say,  but adjusted to take better advantage of player skills, why they picked an aggressive man coverage CB for a soft zone defense, and then not use him to his skill set is kinda Billsy, we shall see how this plays out won’t we…, 

Jackson is not an upgrade over Wallace

[Dopey]

23 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Except isn't it Dane whose in the lead again somehow?

The op did ask IF Benford wins it. 

[Dopey]

20 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

It may have been bound to happen but the timing of a completely crap draft couldn’t have been worse - the entire 2022 draft is looking like a throwaway.  Benford and maybe Cook can partially salvage it, but considering what the Chiefs pulled from that draft class (and the Jets who took 2 likely All Pros in Round 1 alone), the Bills lost a major opportunity to capitalize on the end of Allen’s cheap window.

Calling a draft complete crap after one season is complete crap. 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

10 hours ago, eball said:

The premise of this thread isn’t to give Beane a “break” for missing on Elam (if that is the case), but to ask a question about whether the team is in bad shape with three competent CB2 options.

 

 

That's a stupid premise.

 

The Bills will always be fine at cornerback as long as Sean McDermott is the Head Coach.

 

They can sign a guy off the street at any time and in a matter of weeks have him functioning well enough in their zone defense to be getting on with-- early on they did it with a forgotten never-was named Ryan Lewis who now plays in the XFL. The defense played at a high level with this crappy nobody starting at CB2.

 

They've excelled with end-of-the-draft nobodies and UDFAs over and over. Levi, Dane, Benford. 

 

Kaiir Elam was a pointless ######ed ass draft pick to begin with.

 

The talent level at WR is about 5X more important for this team than at CB.

 

There's probably hyperbole in this rant but no doubt about it there's a gem of a point in there somewhere too.

[FireChans]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think this is what people miss on this topic.  They look at it that if Elam doesn't win it then it means Elam was not good, which isn't the case, he has had a good camp.  Its just that we have 3 guys all having good camps at the same position.  Which to me is a good thing.

 

Personally, I think CB2 is going to be less about who starts and more about defensive calls and matchups.  I can see for example Elam out there more on press/man coverage and Dane or Benford more zone for example.  So I am not convinced that whoever wins CB2 is going to dominate the snaps like Tre does in regard to "starting".

We didn’t draft Elam to be just as good as Levi Wallace.

[OldTimer1960]

18 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

If Benford is as good as he seems to be, I think the Bills are fine at CB.  IIn theory, you want a first round draft pick to be on the field, but in the grand scheme of things, this is a tiny problem for the Bills compared with a couple other issues the Bills are dealing with.

I think this might be overestimating Benford.  He hasn’t beaten out Jackson who is OK, but they did want to replace him.

[Simon]

38 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Jackson is not an upgrade over Wallace

 

Levi Wallace was the worst pigeon the Bills have had on defense in 5-10 years.

Dane Jackson may not be all that and a bag of chips but he is a massive upgrade over the guy that every opposing co-ordinator went after the second the Bills stopped compromising their defense to try and protect him.

[GoBills808]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

I think this might be overestimating Benford.  He hasn’t beaten out Jackson who is OK, but they did want to replace him.

Yeah, maybe I'm misremembering but I don't recall a time when I thought hey Benford looked good

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Levi Wallace was the worst pigeon the Bills have had on defense in 5-10 years.

Dane Jackson may not be all that and a bag of chips but he is a massive upgrade over the guy that every opposing co-ordinator went after the second the Bills stopped compromising their defense to protect him.

A legitimate bad take.

 

Not only does this ignore that for the majority of Levi's career, he had borderline All-Pro Tre White across the field, along with Poyer and Hyde (gee, if I was an offensive coordinator, I wonder who I would throw at), but it's also completely not supported by the numbers.

 

Levi Wallace his last season in Buffalo, aka sans Tre White for a large part of the year, allowed a passer rating of 72.6 when targeted.

 

Dane last year allowed 82.1.

 

Elam allowed a tremendously bad 96.3.

 

Benford allowed 84.1.

 

Levi Wallace was the victim of being a solid player surrounding by stars, and the weakest player in the secondary by default.  And this caused him to get vilified by the people who don't know what they are talking about. He's a better player the the three "solid depth" amigos who can't seem to break out of the mediocre paper bag they are stuck in.

Edited August 25, 2023 by FireChans

[Airseven]

28 minutes ago, Dopey said:

The op did ask IF Benford wins it. 

 

Fair.

 

It's still a problem if a GM trades up for a player in round 1 who can barely get on the field. Benford is getting reps, in part, because of the Elam problem.

 

GMs need to hit on early picks. Bills may be plateauing because guys like Ford, Epenesa, Basham, and Elam didn't develop. Even Oliver and Edmunds have been above average players but not what the team expected them to become. We'll see about Rousseau. Still hope.

[Simon]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

And this caused him to get vilified by the people who don't know what they are talking about.

 

The irony of this insult coming from somebody who uses "passer ratings" to judge a player's technique, ability, awareness and reliability is through the roof.

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

The irony of this insult coming from somebody who uses "passer ratings" to judge a player's technique, ability, awareness and reliability is through the roof.

Sorry, I wasn't referring to you in particular, just that I think he was a little bit of a trendy kicked dog on this board, particularly because his personal competition in the secondary.

 

FWIW, Levi also crushed the other dudes in pretty much other metric. Not saying much based on their level of play.

 

I guess if the eye-test says that Elam has much better technique, ability, awareness and reliability, but allowed a 70% completion rate and a 96.3 passer rating when the ball was thrown his way, I would ask, of what use is the eye test?

Edited August 25, 2023 by FireChans

[Simon]

Just now, FireChans said:

Sorry, I wasn't referring to you in particular, just that I think he was a little bit of a trendy kicked dog on this board, particularly because his personal competition in the secondary.

 

FWIW, Levi also crushed the other dudes in pretty much other metric. Not saying much based on their level of play.

 

I guess if the eye-test says that Elam has much better technique, ability, awareness and reliability, but allowed a 70% completion rate and a 96.3 passer rating when the ball was thrown his way, I would ask, of what use is the eye test?

 

I think Elam has mostly looked like hell also; clearly uncomfortable, doing too much guessing, getting wrong-footed regularly, etc.

Dane Jackson isn't the best athlete on the field but he knows where he's supposed to be, is not hesitant to get there and is willing to attack both opponents and the ball. If he had better feet, he'd possibly be a legitimate long term option as a starter.

Wallace was just a train wreck. I respect him for working his ass off to maximize what he had and somehow carve out a career for himself, but when you combine that limited athleticism with poor field awareness, absolutely gawdawful technique and the kind of fear that prevented him from attacking his assignments, I think the Bills felt they had to compromise their entire defense to protect him and it legitimately degraded the unit as a whole.

 

 

[BananaB]

43 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Levi Wallace was the worst pigeon the Bills have had on defense in 5-10 years.

Dane Jackson may not be all that and a bag of chips but he is a massive upgrade over the guy that every opposing co-ordinator went after the second the Bills stopped compromising their defense to try and protect him.

Did you not watch Dane get picked on on 3rd and long last year? It was ***** brutal

Edited August 25, 2023 by BananaB

[Simon]

9 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Did you not watch Dane get picked on on 3rd and long last year? It was ***** brutal

 

Yeah, he's not a good enough athlete to hold up consistently without help and gets exposed for it on occasion.

Yet he's still a better option than Wallace, who could regularly be seen spinning in circles at any down/distance whether the ball was near him or not. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Yeah, maybe I'm misremembering but I don't recall a time when I thought hey Benford looked good

 

Week 1 at the Rams. Was kinda lots of meh after that and whilst he did have injuries by the end of last year Elam had beaten Benford out. The fact that they appear to be back the other way around coming out of camp is legitimately concerning for their 1st rounder.

[GETTOTHE50]

was Elam really that bad last year? I honestly dont remember cursing at him during the games.

 

like idt he missed tackles or whiffed on assignments.