General feeling of fanbase, more likely... winning AFC Championship? or missing playoffs altogether?

[loyal2dagame]

3 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

My diaper's not wet

 

But it is soiled with poop.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

7 minutes ago, loyal2dagame said:

But it is soiled with poop.

No no friend

 

only sunshine rainbows and unicorns at this time of year

 

[major]

7 hours ago, Gregg said:

I think they will make the playoffs and probably win the division. The schedule is tough for everybody in the AFCE. I will say 10-12 wins is the floor/ceiling. Will they make or win the Super Bowl. Who knows as anything can happen in the playoffs. It will be a challenge to get by KC/CIN. Hopefully they don't get hit to hard with the injury bug this year. As everyone knows injuries can ruin the season.

No major injuries and I think we are in the Super Bowl. I think we only win 10-11 in regular and then go on the run 

[dpberr]

The window is right now.  This is the year for the Bills.    Burn the boats behind you.

[maddenboy]

6 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

 I wasn't happy with how last season ended, and it has carried through this whole off season.

 

It wasn't even just the injuries piling up, I just felt like all the games in the latter half of the season felt like a huge struggle. We often came back and won those games, but I never felt good or comfortable with them.

 

I never feel satisfied with our defense.

 

1)  I feel the same.  there is zero juice to this offseason.  Not even the pick of Kincaid really juiced anything.

 

Its kinda like when you wake your computer from sleep.  Its just a different vibe when you take the extra time to turn it all the way off.  then back on from scratch.

 

We havent had that moment yet.  We usually have it by now

 

2)  Sometimes your computer just slows down (to keep the analogy).   Not enuf ram to run so many open programs at once.

 

I dont know if "Process" includes any rah-rah.  But it feels like we need . . . something.

 

3)  Because our Defense doesnt make enuf plays.  Part of bend-but-dont-break is that, if we make you run 15 plays every time you have the ball, that gives us more opportunities for us to make a play.  Forcing the opponent to play perfectly and no team can do that for so many plays.  But if it always ends in a punt or a score, without  any game-changing plays, . . . .

[BuffaloBillyG]

24 minutes ago, maddenboy said:

1)  I feel the same.  there is zero juice to this offseason.  Not even the pick of Kincaid really juiced anything.

 

Its kinda like when you wake your computer from sleep.  Its just a different vibe when you take the extra time to turn it all the way off.  then back on from scratch.

 

We havent had that moment yet.  We usually have it by now

 

2)  Sometimes your computer just slows down (to keep the analogy).   Not enuf ram to run so many open programs at once.

 

I dont know if "Process" includes any rah-rah.  But it feels like we need . . . something.

 

3)  Because our Defense doesnt make enuf plays.  Part of bend-but-dont-break is that, if we make you run 15 plays every time you have the ball, that gives us more opportunities for us to make a play.  Forcing the opponent to play perfectly and no team can do that for so many plays.  But if it always ends in a punt or a score, without  any game-changing plays, . . . .

We have had tons of "juice" in our off season the past what...4-5 years? And how did that end up for us? I think the "juice" this year is knowing we have a team that can go all the way, knowing that we have just as much of a chance at  being there in the end and enjoying the games. If it ends up with us winning the big game at the end... magnificent. 

[maddenboy]

i'm talking about juice on the team.  vibes emanating from the team.

 

i'm not talking about juicing up the fans.

[eball]

Anyone who “predicts” this team would miss the playoffs is a complete moron.  The only way the Bills miss the playoffs is if they sustain catastrophic injuries at multiple positions (Allen, Diggs, etc).

 

The Bills are a top 5 team in the NFL.  Period.  It’s not something that is even reasonably debatable.

 

A lot of Bills fans are still scarred from the drought.  We don’t know how to deal with being considered one of the elites because it hasn’t happened since the early 90s.  But we are.

 

The likelihood of reaching/winning the AFCC is far greater than the likelihood of missing the playoffs.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

I don’t expect 13 wins again… this season could go either way. I could see them struggling their way to a 10 win season and be one and done in the playoffs or similarly figure ***** out and be hot once the playoffs start and run the table… Not sure about the rest of the division, many love Miami, but I can also see them falling flat on their face or conversely living up to the expectations. Same goes for the Jets. My concerns for the Bills remain the same entering last season. WR and offensive line… but I also wonder about the age of the defense and it catching up to them at some point this season. 
 

I don’t see #1 seed at all so they’ll have to figure out how to win 4 in a row once they get to the playoffs. 

Broken record still I see

[Dan]

1 hour ago, eball said:

Anyone who “predicts” this team would miss the playoffs is a complete moron.  The only way the Bills miss the playoffs is if they sustain catastrophic injuries at multiple positions (Allen, Diggs, etc).

 

The Bills are a top 5 team in the NFL.  Period.  It’s not something that is even reasonably debatable.

 

A lot of Bills fans are still scarred from the drought.  We don’t know how to deal with being considered one of the elites because it hasn’t happened since the early 90s.  But we are.

 

The likelihood of reaching/winning the AFCC is far greater than the likelihood of missing the playoffs.

 

Agreed. 100%. 
 

I still don’t understand the posters upset with last year’s 13 wins… because we didn’t dominate enough while winning.  Thats the most odd take I’ve heard going all the way back to last season.   This team won. Period. People need to stop expecting every drive to be a score.   Its amazing how quickly people got spoiled.  
 

The biggest concern I have is the loss of Singletary.  Hopefully Cook is ready to make a leap in consistency.  I’m not even as worried about McD being the defensive coordinator, as I feel he was very involved with the defense in the past.   
 

There are lots of unknowns and question marks with the team to be certain.   Buy every team has unknowns at this point in the summer.   No reason to just expect all the Bills’ moves were bad and everyone else’s were good.   Not till at least October.  

[90sBills]

3 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Per DraftKings, Bills are +500 to win the AFC. In others words, DraftKings is saying the Bills have a 20% chance of making it to the SuperBowl. 
 

Do the Bills have a 20% chance of missing the playoffs?  I don’t think so, my guess is about a 10% chance of missing the playoffs. If they get a rash of key injuries and bad bounces. 

That’s what DraftKing is saying huh? Really fancy math right there. 

[Aimee75]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

You had me until you started talking about Hailee Steinfeld and Josh like you know them personally…

Oh brother. I am not talking about them like I know them "personally". Obviously I don't. What I do know, like the rest of us know, is that they are quite possibly in the honeymoon phase of their relationship and yeah, that CAN be a distraction. I am not saying it WILL be, but it's a possibility, and just one more thing along with a whole lot of other things going into this season that aren't making me feel super optimistic. 

[Chicken Boo]

10 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Look the Bills mirror the Washington Capitals…for years under Ovi they were a favorite if not the favorite in the Eastern Conference and would always get tripped up at some level in the playoffs. 

The year they were kinda an afterthought they won the Stanley Cup. 
It is the Bills time now to do so. 

They have more talent top to bottom than just about any team they face. The only thing that can stop the Bills is themselves. 

 

I'm not convinced that this team is better than KC or Cincinnati, but I believe they can beat them and agree with the analogy. 

[90sBills]

This team is too good to miss the playoffs…but not quite good enough to do that other thing. 

[Billl]

10 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I’ve read that the Bills are favored to win the AFCE, and frankly until they are unseated as the division champs, everyone one else is looking up at Buffalo, ya gotta beat the man to be the man, as the saying goes, as said above the odds for any team to win it all are poor. 

Sure, but the question is whether they’re more likely to be unseated in the division or unseat Kansas City, Cincinnati, and the rest of the field in the AFC.

 

According to Vegas, they’re about twice as likely to miss the playoffs.  They’re +500 to win the AFC, so they have about a 17% chance.  They’re +130 to win the East which gives them about a 43% chance of winning the division.  That puts them at about a 65% chance of making the playoffs as a division winner or wild card.  So there’s a 35% chance of missing the playoffs and a 17% chance of winning the AFC.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Billl

[newcam2012]

8 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

I'm going to be honest about how I am feeling, and it's just really negative at this moment. This doesn't mean I am right, and most likely probably not right in the slightest, but I just don't feel good about things. I don't even know where to begin. I wasn't happy with how last season ended, and it has carried through this whole off season. It wasn't even just the injuries piling up, I just felt like all the games in the latter half of the season felt like a huge struggle. We often came back and won those games, but I never felt good or comfortable with them. I never feel satisfied with our defense.

 

I wasn't crazy about the moves we made in the off season, or lack thereof. I am not thrilled with our WR room. I love Diggs, but am tired of having to rely on him to be our savior. I look at Miami's offense, and they are IMO crazy talented and explosive, and then I look at ours, and I don't feel good about it. I don't think Tua is half the QB Josh is, but he is good, and "good" with receivers like Waddle and Hill is scary. I guess we will see.

 

I kind of love the pairing of Josh with Hailee Steinfeld. I think they are adorable, and she seems like a better fit than Brittany, but I do worry about him focusing on the team and all that while being in a relatively new relationship, and how it affects things. It's new, and his time will be taken up once the season starts, and if it causes any rifts it could impact his play. I don't know, it's his relationship and his business, but I do lowkey wonder if he will be distracted. 

 

I felt more confident last season and the season prior, but I guess we will see.

 

I also wanted to add that I do think we improved in some areas for sure, but I feel like the teams in our division have as well, on top of them giving us a hard time last year(splitting games with The Dolphins and Jets, and winning close ones against them instead of blowing them out like we did in the past).

 

Solid post. I'm feeling the same kind of vibe. I find myself being more and more disappointed because of the last few years of playoff losses. 

 

I keep waiting for a different result. Hoping for a different result. Praying for a different result. Yet, the results remain similarly disappointing. 

 

The wait till next year theme is growing old. Seems like the Bills and the Cowboys have a lot in common. Both really good teams that fall flat in the playoffs. 

 

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, Billl said:

Sure, but the question is whether they’re more likely to be unseated in the division or unseat Kansas City, Cincinnati, and the rest of the field in the AFC.

 

According to Vegas, they’re about twice as likely to miss the playoffs.  They’re +500 to win the AFC, so they have about a 17% chance.  They’re +130 to win the East which gives them about a 43% chance of winning the division.  That puts them at about a 65% chance of making the playoffs as a division winner or wild card.  So there’s a 35% chance of missing the playoffs and a 17% chance of winning the AFC.

Not how that works

[Billl]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Not how that works

Care to enlighten us on how implied probability works then?

[78thealltimegreat]

If you look at strictly the Bills schedule…if they get by the Jets on opening night there is a possibility this team could be 8-0 going into Cincy on November 5th. 

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, Billl said:

Care to enlighten us on how implied probability works then?

How do you figure it's only 22% to make playoffs as non division winner

[Chaos]

11 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

The odds of any team winning the SB are less than 20%.  On the other hand, one or two key injuries could make this a team around middle of the pack and in turn, easily miss the playoffs. 

The odds of a team winning the Super Bowl is 100%. One wins every year. 

[LabattBlue]

23 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The odds of a team winning the Super Bowl is 100%. One wins every year. 

Fuzzy math? 😂

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I'll go with 15% to win the AFCCG vs 10% chance of missing the playoffs. 

 

We should really only miss the playoffs if Allen gets injured. 

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, zow2 said:

There are some National talking heads that have the Bills on the decline...mainly due to other teams rising up in the AFC and Buffalo's tough schedule.  For whatever reason, while still respected, the Bills are not a sexy pick this season to do much of anything.

 

Does the fanbase feel they have a better chance at playing in the Super Bowl?  or not making the playoffs?   

 

I know most of us here are homers... and personally I'd be more surprised if they miss the playoffs.  The O looks to be really solid, the D is a question for me and how effectively McDermott tweaks it.

 

 

Absent an Allen injury, both are pretty unlikely. Probably each is below 20%. I'd pick missing the playoffs as more unlikely, though not by a lot.

 

Injuries happen, though. With that possibility included, missing the playoffs is more likely, according to both me and Vegas.

 

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

Sure, but the question is whether they’re more likely to be unseated in the division or unseat Kansas City, Cincinnati, and the rest of the field in the AFC.

 

According to Vegas, they’re about twice as likely to miss the playoffs.  They’re +500 to win the AFC, so they have about a 17% chance.  They’re +130 to win the East which gives them about a 43% chance of winning the division.  That puts them at about a 65% chance of making the playoffs as a division winner or wild card.  So there’s a 35% chance of missing the playoffs and a 17% chance of winning the AFC.

Its all supposition, mine is that the Bills win the division and maybe just maybe they win it all, no knows for sure, that’s why they play the games, 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, LabattBlue said:

Fuzzy math? 😂

I absolute guarantee a team will win the Super Bowl this year. 

[RiotAct]

12 hours ago, Airseven said:

To answer the question, the Bills are more likely missing the playoffs all together than winning the AFC championship. Making the Super Bowl is always a long shot (except for the Chiefs). Better question would’ve been missing the playoffs or reaching the AFC championship.

 

I’d be surprised if the Bills finish outside of 9-11 wins. Call it 10-7 and that’s no guarantee to win the division nor make the playoffs. Dolphins and Jets should both be near that same win range (I think Dolphins take the division).

yeah but missing the playoffs outright is also a long shot, when you have the talent up and down the roster that the Bills do.

[LabattBlue]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

I absolute guarantee a team will win the Super Bowl this year. 

You missed the point.  Even the team that is the SB favorite only has a less than 20% chance of actually winning it all. 

[eball]

11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Kiss of  death.💀 

 

This actually made me laugh. 

[Kirby Jackson]

21 hours ago, zow2 said:

There are some National talking heads that have the Bills on the decline...mainly due to other teams rising up in the AFC and Buffalo's tough schedule.  For whatever reason, while still respected, the Bills are not a sexy pick this season to do much of anything.

 

Does the fanbase feel they have a better chance at playing in the Super Bowl?  or not making the playoffs?   

 

I know most of us here are homers... and personally I'd be more surprised if they miss the playoffs.  The O looks to be really solid, the D is a question for me and how effectively McDermott tweaks it.

It’s a fair question and I agree with you. The Bills are more likely to be in the Super Bowl than to miss the playoffs.

 

People have gone WAY too far on the Bills after a terrible playoff performance. The reality is that they won 8 in a row to that point while not playing great. They faced adversity at a level that no team had ever faced. They improved in the off-season. They lost 3 games by a total of 8 points. If they could have properly executed a kneel down vs. Minnesota they were 14-2 with home field throughout. They had the biggest point differential per game in the NFL.

 

The schedule is tougher and others have improved as well. I still expect the Bills to win the division 12-5(ish) and be much better in the playoffs. They didn’t play with that same swagger or sense of urgency last year. I expect that to return and they are an improved team. I’m betting an adjusted spread week 1 as the Jets are overrated and the Bills underrated. I’m laying double digits. 

[McBean]

22 hours ago, zow2 said:

There are some National talking heads that have the Bills on the decline...mainly due to other teams rising up in the AFC and Buffalo's tough schedule.  For whatever reason, while still respected, the Bills are not a sexy pick this season to do much of anything.

 

Does the fanbase feel they have a better chance at playing in the Super Bowl?  or not making the playoffs?   

 

I know most of us here are homers... and personally I'd be more surprised if they miss the playoffs.  The O looks to be really solid, the D is a question for me and how effectively McDermott tweaks it.

Missing playoffs.

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s a fair question and I agree with you. The Bills are more likely to be in the Super Bowl than to miss the playoffs.

 

People have gone WAY too far on the Bills after a terrible playoff performance. The reality is that they won 8 in a row to that point while not playing great. They faced adversity at a level that no team had ever faced. They improved in the off-season. They lost 3 games by a total of 8 points. If they could have properly executed a kneel down vs. Minnesota they were 14-2 with home field throughout. They had the biggest point differential per game in the NFL.

 

The schedule is tougher and others have improved as well. I still expect the Bills to win the division 12-5(ish) and be much better in the playoffs. They didn’t play with that same swagger or sense of urgency last year. I expect that to return and they are an improved team. I’m betting an adjusted spread week 1 as the Jets are overrated and the Bills underrated. I’m laying double digits. 

that urgency, that mojo, that sense of goign onto the field and hammer down was obvious against the Rams. they came to take lunch money of the defending super bowl champ without acknowledging anything, anyone on that team. they dominated.

 

they had the titans come to their house and they straight nut shot them quickly and walked over them the rest of the game.

 

got to miami and their high energy cockiness got put in check when they realized it's not going to be a cakewalk. i look at that as a big ***** in the armor and a shot where other teams saw that they can beat the Bills.

 

after that we pulled a victory from KC, got lucky against GB, got beat around by the Jets, had the Vikings expose how unbalanced and undercoached we were, and then a few weeks later had a miracle save us in Detroit.

 

last year was weird, but we were not as good as our schedule.

 

in 2023 we may not get beyond our record of 2022 but we will be a better team even if we do not play as well or win as many games.

[Mr. WEO]

missing the playoffs altogether?? 

 

come on with this...

[zow2]

16 hours ago, dpberr said:

The window is right now.  This is the year for the Bills.    Burn the boats behind you.

 

Could be.  I believe last season was year 2 of a legit 4 year Championship window.  So here we are entering year 3 of the 4 year window.  I still think they will have a great chance next season.  Let's do it this year though.   If it doesn't work out, i believe there will be wholesale changes..players, coaches after year 4. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

 

I think this team could finish 11-6, and yet by the end of the season be a better team than last year's 13-3 team.

 

I hope that makes some sense to the football fans out there.

 

I think 10-7 or 9-8 or worse would be due to something catastrophic, unforeseen and really not part of the discussion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

I look at this differently. While every Bills fan would obviously want to see us in the Super Bowl, I think the important question is between the next two:  Would it be better for their longer arc if they missed the playoffs altogether or made the playoffs but once again exited before the Championship Game? 

[pennstate10]

18 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

That's not what that means

Ah, this is a pedantic argument. That’s pretty close to what it means, and it represents the cumulative opinion of the worlds betting public as to the likelihood of the Bills winning the AFC. 
 

it’s the most objective way of obtaining an estimated probability of a future event. 
 

Or if you have a better metric, please let me know. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Teams with generational talents at qb don't miss the playoffs too often. 

Even in super competitive divisions. 

 

[Chaos]

Bills will almost certainly make the playoffs.  Not clear yet, what has changed to get them past the divisional round of the playoffs. 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 7/20/2023 at 5:38 AM, Gregg said:

I think they will make the playoffs and probably win the division. The schedule is tough for everybody in the AFCE. I will say 10-12 wins is the floor/ceiling. Will they make or win the Super Bowl. Who knows as anything can happen in the playoffs. It will be a challenge to get by KC/CIN. Hopefully they don't get hit to hard with the injury bug this year. As everyone knows injuries can ruin the season.

First and foremost injuries or a lack thereof will determine the success of 23.  The OL absolutely must step up, as does Dorsey.  If Von, Groot and Floyd all stay healthy,  the defense should hold up.  I have us at 12-5 and playing in the afccg.

Edited July 22, 2023 by LABILLBACKER