DVOA has Bills the #1 projected team

[Royale with Cheese]

Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders was on the afternoon show.  Link won’t post but its on the details page on the WGR app.

 

Bills were #1 last year as well for reference.

 

He thinks our defense will dominate this year with everyone coming back.

 

 

[scuba guy]

Well than i,think we won the off season

 

Maybe next year we'll just win it all for kim

[4merper4mer]

Cue the McBeane haters….

[Augie]

You are going to make some people very, VERY MAD! 

 

 

😋

 

But seriously, I haven’t seen this yet, but it seems to be science. Therefore we like it. 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

Talking head praises team, therefore they’re a genius. Talking head criticizes the team, he’s an idiot.  Round and round we go 

[Aussie Joe]

It’s gunna be a long six weeks isn’t it?

 

Lots of time to review media musings …

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

34 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Talking head praises team, therefore they’re a genius. Talking head criticizes the team, he’s an idiot.  Round and round we go 

This guy plugs data in and gets his answers. His data has liked the Bills the last couple years so it’s not surprising.

[4merper4mer]

35 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Talking head praises team, therefore they’re a genius. Talking head criticizes the team, he’s an idiot.  Round and round we go 

OP made no such statement.  You just snowflaked your way into thinking that.

[wppete]

If the Defense stays healthy and Von is back to being himself this will one of the best defenses next year. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

59 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders was on the afternoon show.  Link won’t post but its on the details page on the WGR app.

 

Bills were #1 last year as well for reference.

 

He thinks our defense will dominate this year with everyone coming back.

 

 

 

Tremaine Edmunds is coming back ?

 

I was never a huge fan of his, but losing him is going to hurt the DEF. 

 

That being said I could easily see our DEF being top 10 next season. Maybe top 5

 

OFF should be top 5 

[SCBills]

If Von Miller is at least 80% of what he was last year, this defense could be a monster.

 

We’re a bit dependent upon guys coming back from injury (Von, Tre, Hyde).. but if they are anywhere close to their prior selves, this is a Top 5 defense, legitimately.  
 

A defense that should carry over into the Playoffs. 

On Offense, people can think what they want, but the OL should be improved, Allen is healthy and the weapons are much better. 

 

[DapperCam]

I actually think we have some question marks on defense, that could end up being no big deal, but are still there nonetheless.

 

- What will Von Miller be like post-ACL tear?

- Will Tre White return to form?

- How much will we miss Edmunds?

- How effective will Hyde and Poyer be after injury-filled last season?

- Will Elam take the next step and be a legit starter at CB2 (able to handle both man and zone)?

- How will things be different with McDermott calling the plays?

 

Might all be good, but definitely some risk for regression there.

[Shaw66]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

This guy plugs data in and gets his answers. His data has liked the Bills the last couple years so it’s not surprising.

That's true.  But the data they use, and the analysis they use, generates surprisingly good results.   Their process compares teams and players in positions in a very clever and detailed way, so by the second half of the season, they have surprisingly good takes on which teams are playing well and which aren't.   

 

At this time of year, their analysis is largely looking backward and making some projections about which players will be good.  That's when they become just another website expressing their opinion.  

 

So, what his analysis really means is that the Bills were one of the very best teams in the league last season, and based on their assumptions about players (White, Poyer, White, Miller, etc.) they should be very good again this season.  It's a pretty logical conclusion, but it's not worth much more than the colculsions any one of us reaches about what 2023 will be like. 

[Success]

Objectively, this is the best Bills team since the '90s - and possibly better than those teams.

 

It's the 1st time in the JA era that I feel like there is real balance on the team.  There really aren't any weak units.  The O-line should be vastly improved w/ the acquisitions - and I'm incredibly excited to see us FINALLY have a run game that doesn't rely on Allen.  I don't think some fans here understand yet how good Harris can be when healthy.

 

I'm stoked. Especially since the unanimous opinion in the rest of NFL fandom & punditry is that the Bills are "taking a step back" this year.  

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Success

[Chicken Boo]

There are outliers, but it's so hard for defenses to be dominant these days.  

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Talking head praises team, therefore they’re a genius. Talking head criticizes the team, he’s an idiot.  Round and round we go 

 

Correct.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders was on the afternoon show.  Link won’t post but its on the details page on the WGR app.

 

Bills were #1 last year as well for reference.

 

He thinks our defense will dominate this year with everyone coming back.

 

 

Homer. 

[LABILLBACKER]

Signing Floyd to compliment Rousseau was brilliant.  Don't rush Von back too early. And when he does return (week 6?), keep him on a snap count.  Hyde & Poyer healthy will be huge.  We'll see which LB rises up to pair with Milano. At the very least I think we'll be a top 8 D. I'm actually a little excited to see Sean take everything over.

[SCBills]

11 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I actually think we have some question marks on defense, that could end up being no big deal, but are still there nonetheless.

 

- What will Von Miller be like post-ACL tear?

- Will Tre White return to form?

- How much will we miss Edmunds?

- How effective will Hyde and Poyer be after injury-filled last season?

- Will Elam take the next step and be a legit starter at CB2 (able to handle both man and zone)?

- How will things be different with McDermott calling the plays?

 

Might all be good, but definitely some risk for regression there.

All valid questions. 
 

Im not worried at all about McDermott.  I just can’t see him letting this defense drop.  This is what got him a HC job and he’s going to to want to remind everyone of that. 
 

In regards to Edmunds.  I think the loss of him makes our defense different, and not necessarily worse.  Very polarizing and interesting player, but he has very defined strengths and weaknesses - as alluded to by Beane. 
 

Regardless.. the swap of Edmunds for Floyd, Ford and Rapp is a significant improvement, imo. 

[Brand J]

I thought last year was the strongest roster the Bills would be able to field in the Josh Allen era (due to numerous escalating salaries like Stefon, Von, and Josh). Beane proved me wrong and went out and signed vets like Rapp, Poona, and Leonard Floyd for far less than market value. It’s the strongest roster on paper since the SB years. 

[Shaw66]

Just now, Success said:

Objectively, this is the best Bills team since the '90s - and possibly better than those teams.

 

It's the 1st time in the JA era that I feel like there is real balance on the team.  There really aren't any weak units.  The O-line should be vastly improved w/ the acquisition - and I'm incredibly excited to see us FINALLY have a run game that doesn't rely on Allen.  I don't think some fans here understand yet how good Harris can be when healthy.

 

I'm stoked. Especially since the unanimous opinion in the rest of NFL fandom & punditry is that the Bills are "taking a step back" this year.  

 

I agree about Harris, and I was more excited when they got Murray.  If the oline solidifies, there's a good chance that one of those two guys will punish teams in a way that will take the pressure off Allen.  And I also expect more from Cook, because it seemed to me the Bills were awfully comfortable letting Motor walk. 

 

And as to the bolded part, I agree.   I think we're looking at a highly motivated team, just based on how last season ended, and I think a lot of the disrespect we're hearing right now is not being missed by the players. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

Homer. 

What was the name of the drink Moe stole from Homer?

[stuvian]

we've been scratching around the top for awhile so this is no surprise. Let's hope we catch KC with a SB hangover and get revenge on those pesky Bengals

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

All valid questions. 
 

Im not worried at all about McDermott.  I just can’t see him letting this defense drop.  This is what got him a HC job and he’s going to to want to remind everyone of that. 
 

In regards to Edmunds.  I think the loss of him makes our defense different, and not necessarily worse.  Very polarizing and interesting player, but he has very defined strengths and weaknesses - as alluded to by Beane. 
 

Regardless.. the swap of Edmunds for Floyd, Ford and Rapp is a significant improvement, imo. 

Yes to all of this, and if Williams can make the jump to the NFL to replace Edmunds, watch out.   I don't have any idea, really, whether he can play in the NFL or how soon, but his style of play fills in exactly the things that I always thought were missing in Edmunds:  effectiveness as a blitzer, aggressive, attacking tackler in the run game.  If he is those things and isn't a liability in pass defense, watch out.   McDermott will have a field day with him. 

[loyal2dagame]

I am still of the belief that Edmunds being gone will affect our pass defense because he was a big condor like MLB that made QBs throw over or around him due to his reach. I never liked him against the run as I noticed him side stepping those plays instead of taking the RB head on. 

That being said, I've stuck with my off-season take that this team is still fine on both sides of the ball, is well coached, and will win the East again. 

[Einstein]

6 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Im not worried at all about McDermott.  I just can’t see him letting this defense drop.  This is what got him a HC job and he’s going to to want to remind everyone of that. 

 

Your post brought a different topic to mind. A subject that isn't frequently discussed is McDermott's hiatus from calling plays and orchestrating a complete defensive game plan. Can we genuinely expect him to perform at the same level as Carolina, having left his craft untouched for almost ten years? We are going on 7 years since he last called a full game. Remember, some folks struggled to find the break room after returning to the office after two years of Covid-related absence. McDermott, on the other hand, hasn't exercised his aptitude for calling defensive plays for six long years.

[BillsFan619]

22 minutes ago, Success said:

Objectively, this is the best Bills team since the '90s - and possibly better than those teams.

 

It's the 1st time in the JA era that I feel like there is real balance on the team.  There really aren't any weak units.  The O-line should be vastly improved w/ the acquisitions - and I'm incredibly excited to see us FINALLY have a run game that doesn't rely on Allen.  I don't think some fans here understand yet how good Harris can be when healthy.

 

I'm stoked. Especially since the unanimous opinion in the rest of NFL fandom & punditry is that the Bills are "taking a step back" this year.  

 

Good thoughts, Success.

 

I told my kids that, because of the gauntlet of a schedule we have, we may have a worse record than last year (regular season, of course) and still have a better team this year.

 

Of course, if they do have a worse record, you’ll have some say that they did take a step back just because of the worse record instead of including the context of our super tough 2nd half schedule.

Edited June 20, 2023 by BillsFan619

[loyal2dagame]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Your post brought a different topic to mind. A subject that isn't frequently discussed is McDermott's hiatus from calling plays and orchestrating a complete defensive game plan. Can we genuinely expect him to perform at the same level as Carolina, having left his craft untouched for almost ten years? We are going on 7 years since he last called a full game. Remember, some folks struggled to find the break room after returning to the office after two years of Covid-related absence. McDermott, on the other hand, hasn't exercised his aptitude for calling defensive plays for six long years.

He's a head coach. He still watches hours upon hours of tape and likely has evolved with the game.  Is not like he was sitting in a studio reacting to highlights.  He has had the final say in gameplanning since he got here. I think he'll be fine. 

[That's No Moon]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Cue the McBeane haters….

When do they raise the banner for having the #1 DVOA?

[Nextmanup]

The D was a no show last year when it mattered most.

 

Let's hope for better this year.

 

I'm not going to get excited over stats we generate against Denver.

 

 

[stevestojan]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders was on the afternoon show.  Link won’t post but its on the details page on the WGR app.

 

Bills were #1 last year as well for reference.

 

He thinks our defense will dominate this year with everyone coming back.

 

 

I think many are forgetting about that last point. We had a scary good defense last year that was bit by the injury bug.
 

With guys healthy again, plus the additions made on the off-season? The defense has only gotten better then. And depending on when Von returns, it got markedly better.

 

I feel like McD will lean into the “break and break hard” style vs Fraziers “bend so much you give a 20 yard cushion on 3rd and long in the ***** playoffs.” We’ll likely give up a few more big plays along the way, but in the whole, I’d bet a good amount we hold teams to fewer points per game this season. 

[Punching Bag]

3 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Talking head praises team, therefore they’re a genius. Talking head criticizes the team, he’s an idiot.  Round and round we go 

 

From your posts I think your opinion is: 

Talking head criticizes the team, he’s a genius.

Talking head praises team, he’s an idiot.

 

Not see how that is much better.

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

If Von Miller is at least 80% of what he was last year, this defense could be a monster.

 

Still concerned about MLB/ILB.  But to your point, they have Floyd to keep MIller's spot warm until and if he comes back with anything.  At 34 coming off of a major knee injury is hardly a shoe-in to be above average.  Either way they have Floyd.  Not sure how they use Floyd when Miller does get back though.  I can't imagine him replacing Rousseau on the other side.  

 

I'm more thinking that the offense can be a monster, best Bills offense ever if they conduct it optimally.   That would include running more and by hook or by crook find our short higher percentage passing game.  I hope Allen's elbow is 100%.  

 

 

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

What was the name of the drink Moe stole from Homer?

 

The Flaming Homer?  

 

 

[Dr.Sack]

Dorian Williams starts and plays at an All Pro level we dominate. 

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

Your post brought a different topic to mind. A subject that isn't frequently discussed is McDermott's hiatus from calling plays and orchestrating a complete defensive game plan. Can we genuinely expect him to perform at the same level as Carolina, having left his craft untouched for almost ten years? We are going on 7 years since he last called a full game. Remember, some folks struggled to find the break room after returning to the office after two years of Covid-related absence. McDermott, on the other hand, hasn't exercised his aptitude for calling defensive plays for six long years.

 

On that note, I'm more or less expecting what he did there, which was incredibly inconsistent.  In 6 seasons, 4 were below average in Scoring D, twice way below at 26th and 27th, one of which was his last season.  His successor, Steve Wilks, came in and made it 11th the following season.  He averaged 17th in scoring D and he had some great players too, Kuechly among them.  

 

On top of that he's gotta run the entire team.  I'm not sure it inspires confidence.  McD doesn't seem to be very good in new situations.  

 

IMO, if there's any hope this season in the playoffs it's going to have to come from changes and improvements in the Offense.  

 

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by PBF81

[4merper4mer]

8 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

When do they raise the banner for having the #1 DVOA?

Dude you know this.  It’s the same ceremony as the Sarcastic Negative Nancy of the year award.  Don’t tell me you forget to rent your tux again.  I think you’ve got a legit shot.  Your sarcasm is imperfect but you’ve nailed both the N’s.

[BarleyNY]

11 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders was on the afternoon show.  Link won’t post but its on the details page on the WGR app.

 

Bills were #1 last year as well for reference.

 

He thinks our defense will dominate this year with everyone coming back.

 

 

 

DVOA is a nice analytical tool, but it’s backward looking (as almost all are). So they’re just saying we were #1 last year so they expect us to be very good this year. It can’t have any data from this season until games are played. 

[4merper4mer]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

DVOA is a nice analytical tool, but it’s backward looking (as almost all are). So they’re just saying we were #1 last year so they expect us to be very good this year. It can’t have any data from this season until games are played. 

Are you trying to say we’re tied with the Texans at 0-0?  

[That's No Moon]

45 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Dude you know this.  It’s the same ceremony as the Sarcastic Negative Nancy of the year award.  Don’t tell me you forget to rent your tux again.  I think you’ve got a legit shot.  Your sarcasm is imperfect but you’ve nailed both the N’s.

Is the ceremony before or after the gala for useless statistics? I just want to make sure you can be my +1.

[corta765]

11 hours ago, scuba guy said:

Well than i,think we won the off season

 

After going back to back with Rex as off season champs in 15-16, its nice to finally end the offseason title drought