Speculation: Could an extension for Gabe Davis be coming too?

[Big Blitz]

5 hours ago, Beast said:

Why would they do that without knowing what they have in Shakir or Short?

 

No. No extension. If they do Beane really needs to be evaluated.

 

Then he shouldn’t be the WR 2

 

That’s the best argument for paying him now - if you’re rolling with him as the WR 2 - he’s number 1 if Diggs misses time - then you clearly believe in him and should pay him.  
 

 

If you aren’t sure then what the hell are we doing??

[Mr. WEO]

nope

 

[Chaos]

6 hours ago, Pabstblueribbon said:

I think/hope the Oliver deal means we are going WR#1 hunting during next year's draft (if Hopkins falls through). 

How does the Oliver extension help with the 2024 Cap, allowing us to go WR1 hunting? 

[Bferra13]

6 hours ago, Paul Costa said:

I doubt it from a cap perspective. He’s getting less than 3 million. I could see an extension during the season but not now. They need the little money 💰 they have for Nuk or a FA DE. Definitely in play for Nuk if they want. 

Haha you arnt getting any Nukes. Hate to break your bubble. 

[Airseven]

I still have faith in Davis. His issues are mental not physical and can still be corrected/improved. That being said, they can’t afford to give into the temptation to overpay him. He’s replaceable.

Edited June 5, 2023 by Airseven

[John from Riverside]

I think it depends on the price point
 

And I think that’s what happen with Tremaine Edmunds to. I think that if Edmonds would’ve been willing to sign for cheaper that year before he got this huge deal, the bills would’ve signed him.

 

The general manager has a price point that he doesn’t go beyond never comes to players

[DCofNC]

I’m all in if he takes 3m a year for 4 years and 6M guaranteed.

[machine gun kelly]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

McBeane likely loaded up on picks (and by loading up adding a pair of 6th-round picks and getting a high comp pick for Edumonds) because they knew that with Josh's contract and some other roster commitments, they would need to try and get as much cheap talent as possible in the upcoming drafts. The Bills barring catastrophe will be drafting in the 20's or 30's a pair of 6th round picks and a pick slotted around 97-104 isn't likely enough to move you up dramatically into the top 10 where you will need to be in order to get a player like Harrison Jr or Wilson. 

Don’t forget the comp pick for Edmunds.  It might be a 3rd if I understand the 800 loopholes and stipulations on Comp picks.

 

The ton of picks will help with Beane’s never ending desire to move up (btw, I love that about him as we need top value not bodies.  This isn’t the drought).

[newcam2012]

 

[Big Turk]

58 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

What’s this got to do with Davis?

 

The Bills aren't going to pay him as a #2. They will look to draft his replacement.

[Perk71]

I'm hoping Shorter can come in and take the #2 🤷🏼

 

Go Bills!!

[folz]

9 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

I'd slot him somewhere between Zay Jones and Valdez Scantling.  Which would put him in the 8-10m AAV range. 

 

Agree with OP, I'm a Gabe fan.  He can't do everything some teams ask their #2 WRs to do, but he is a great downfield WR and young/still ability to improve.

 

I don't know about those comps. I think teams would have a higher value on Gabe than those two. But it's an interesting question...what is his comp/what is his value? 

 

2022 stats

                            recs/tgts          yards           yds/rec            TDs

Zay Jones:         63/93               823              10.0               5

Marquez V-S:    42/81               687               16.4               2

 

Gabe:                 48/93               836               17.4               7

 

DJ Moore:         63/118               888               14.1               7

M. Williams:      63/93                895               14.2              4

 

JuJu:                 78/101               933               12.0              3

Sutton:              64/109              829               13.0              2

 

Just based on last year's stats, D.J. Moore is actually Gabe's closest comp, and he and Wiliiams both have contracts that average $20,000,000; while Zay and Marquez average $8,000,000 and $10,000,000, respectively. JuJu just signed for $8,500,000 avg/year. Courtland Sutton, who compares well, is making $15,000,000. Hunter Renfrow is making 16 million and Corey Davis is making 12.5 mil.

 

And before you call out Gabe's catch percentage, the only players listed above with a significantly better catch percentage were Juju, Mike Williams, and Zay (but Zay---and JuJu to an extent-- are obviously catching a lot of shorter, high-percentage passes, as seen by their yards per reception difference). And to counter catch percentage, Gabe has that higher yards/reception and TD total.

 

And let's not also hear, well Gabe only has good numbers because of Josh Allen. As the names of the QBs for the other receivers listed above are: Mahomes, Herbert, Lawrence, Wilson, and...well, ok...Mayfield/Darnold/Walker (for Moore).

 

So, can anyone make sense of the WR market and where Davis might unbiasedly (either way) be valued? imo, I would think teams value him in the upper half of #2 WRs money. But I have no idea what that means in dollars. It appears to be anywhere between 8.5 and 20 million.

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by folz

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I really like Gabe but this was too good to not post in this thread.

 

 

 

 

 

Gabe got plenty of heat from fans during games last season about his bad hands and he's not shy about yelling back at them.   Hopefully he uses that as motivation to get better.   When you are among the worst ball droppers and least efficient target catchers in the entire league.......the criticism is warranted. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, folz said:

 

I don't know about those comps. I think teams would have a higher value on Gabe than those two. But it's an interesting question...what is his comp/what is his value? 

 

2022 stats

                            recs/tgts          yards           yds/rec            TDs

Zay Jones:         63/93               823              10.0               5

Marquez V-S:    42/81               687               16.4               2

 

Gabe:                 48/93               836               17.4               7

 

DJ Moore:         63/118               888               14.1               7

M. Williams:      63/93                895               14.2              4

 

JuJu:                 78/101               933               12.0              3

Sutton:              64/109              829               13.0              2

 

Just based on last year's stats, D.J. Moore is actually Gabe's closest comp, and he and Wiliiams both have contracts that average $20,000,000; while Zay and Marquez average $8,000,000 and $10,000,000, respectively. JuJu just signed for $8,500,000 avg/year. Courtland Sutton, who compares well, is making $15,000,000. Hunter Renfrow is making 16 million and Corey Davis is making 12.5 mil.

 

And before you call out Gabe's catch percentage, the only players listed above with a significantly better catch percentage were Juju, Mike Williams, and Zay (but Zay---and JuJu to an extent-- are obviously catching a lot of shorter, high-percentage passes, as seen by their yards per reception difference). And to counter catch percentage, Gabe has that higher yards/reception and TD total.

 

And let's not also hear, well Gabe only has good numbers because of Josh Allen. As the names of the QBs for the other receivers listed above are: Mahomes, Herbert, Lawrence, Wilson, and...well, ok...Mayfield/Darnold/Walker (for Moore).

 

So, can anyone make sense of the WR market and where Davis might unbiasedly (either way) be valued? imo, I would think teams value him in the upper half of #2 WRs money. But I have no idea what that means in dollars. It appears to be anywhere between 8.5 and 20 million.

 

Have to disagree that dj Moore is a comp for Davis 

 

Moore is solidly WR1 material

 

Also worth mentioning that Mike Williams is usually third in Chargers offense target share behind Keenan Allen when healthy and Ekeler

[billsfan89]

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Don’t forget the comp pick for Edmunds.  It might be a 3rd if I understand the 800 loopholes and stipulations on Comp picks.

 

The ton of picks will help with Beane’s never ending desire to move up (btw, I love that about him as we need top value not bodies.  This isn’t the drought).

 

I did mention the comp pick which should be slotted in the 97-104 range. But a pair of 6th round picks and a pick in the 97-104 range is not enough to make the Bills go from a pick in the late 1st where they are likely to be all the way to a top 10 pick which is where they will likely need to trade up to in order to get a chance at the top 3 WR's in next years draft. 

 

That's not to say extra picks won't help, but if the Bills are going to want a crack at a top WR in next years draft they are likely going to have to give up a lot more than the extra 6ths and extra late 3rd they picked up. Hell even tossing in those three picks and the Bills 2023 2nd might not be enough to get where they need to go.

[Sierra Foothills]

Wrote  Matt Parrino in NYup.com:

 

"Big-time no. 2s like Los Angeles Chargers receiver Mike Williams and Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin make $20 million per season. A better comparison for Davis might be former New England receiver Jacobi Meyers, who had about the same numbers as Davis in 2022. He signed with the Las Vegas Raiders for less than $13 million AAV in March."

 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2023/06/5-thoughts-on-the-buffalo-bills-giving-ed-oliver-a-4-year-contract-extension.html

 

[BillsfaninSB]

Future NY Giant. 

[Mark Vader]

11 hours ago, BBFL said:

Push the chips for MH2. 

So, you want the Bills to tank this season?

[BillsShredder83]

12 hours ago, BBFL said:

Push the chips for MH2. 

Who? Wanna throw him on the radar

12 hours ago, Pabstblueribbon said:

 

That makes. I just like the odds of either of those scenarios better when you don't have another hole you need to adequately fill. 

 

Ideally, I'd like to see Gabe absolutely ball out this season and get paid (by someone else). Then we move up from the last pick of round 1 to attempt to find our next Diggs. So our core is Diggs, Round 1 future Diggs, and Shorter who by this point has rounded into the Gabe Davis we have today. 

 

Solved. Make it happen BB!

I've been very surprised to see so many speaking highly of Shorter as a receiving prospect?

 

Sincere question. Why? 5th rder, nothing jumps out at me, is it just the big frame? He seems like a dude who only makes roster bc of STs and only plays few snaps outside of injury bugs.

[BBFL]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Who? Wanna throw him on the radar

I've been very surprised to see so many speaking highly of Shorter as a receiving prospect?

 

Sincere question. Why? 5th rder, nothing jumps out at me, is it just the big frame? He seems like a dude who only makes roster bc of STs and only plays few snaps outside of injury bugs.

Harrison Jr. 

2 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

So, you want the Bills to tank this season?

Tank? No. Give up the capital or assets to get him? Yes. 

[folz]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Have to disagree that dj Moore is a comp for Davis 

 

Moore is solidly WR1 material

 

Also worth mentioning that Mike Williams is usually third in Chargers offense target share behind Keenan Allen when healthy and Ekeler

 

I'm not saying Gabe is as good as Moore (or deserves 20 mil/yr), I am only pointing out that their stats for 2022 were the most similar across the board. Of course, I also noted that Moore was the only WR I listed that didn't have a top QB throwing him the ball (which matters too). Was just trying to see where Gabe slotted in with other receivers stat-wise last year to get an idea of what his value might be or what his agent might argue for. But of course, stats are not the end all be all.

 

But if you break last year's WRs down into tiers of similar production, then Gabe's stats place him in a tier of 11 players (who ranked 25-35 in rec yards last season):

Now, this is just my gut opinion, but I think Gabe would be valued more highly than guys like Zay Jones (8mil), Jakobi Meyers (11 mil), and Donovan Peoples-Jones (870,000). But what about the rest of the group (are they all above Gabe?): Allen Lazard (11 mil), George Pickens (rookie deal), Courtland Sutton (15 mil), Drake London (rookie deal), Diontae Johnson (18.355 mil), D.J. Moore (20.628 mil), and Mike Williams (20 mil).

 

That's quite a range of payments for similar production. So what do you think? Below the top three, but above the bottom 4? So, somewhere between 12 and 17 mil for Gabe? If so, what would people think of Gabe getting say 12-15 million/year. And if you expect him to be paid less, what's the reasoning (JuJu only getting 8.5 mil, or other ideas)?

 

 

[Thurman#1]

59 minutes ago, BBFL said:

Harrison Jr. 

Tank? No. Give up the capital or assets to get him? Yes. 

 

 

I remember a lot of people felt the same way about Sammy Watkins, including Whaley, unfortunately.

 

Giving up the kind of assets we would have to give up to get him just isn't smart, except if you're trading up for a possible franchise QB.

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Unlikely. Teams don't usually pay good #2 WRs. Someone is gonna pay him to be a #1.

 

 

Hunh? Plenty of #2s get paid. They get paid as #2s, not #1s, but they get paid.

 

Hunter Renfrow. Tim Patrick. Jakobi Meyers. Tyler Boyd. Tyler Lockett. Diontae Johnson. Plenty.

 

This could easily happen. Don't know if it will but it's a good possibility.

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Thurman#1

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Who? Wanna throw him on the radar

I've been very surprised to see so many speaking highly of Shorter as a receiving prospect?

 

Sincere question. Why? 5th rder, nothing jumps out at me, is it just the big frame? He seems like a dude who only makes roster bc of STs and only plays few snaps outside of injury bugs.

For me, it’s just hopefulness
 

No, but he says that he doesn’t have speed

Nobody says that he’s not physical

Nobody says that he can’t make contested catches

 

But at this point, it’s just how full you think the glass is

[ProcessTruster]

18 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Maybe

 

But paying a bunch of above average guys isn't the way imo

but doing it the Rams way isn't the way either, they will be sucking for years now.   their SB was immediately forgotten once the team immediately went into cap hell and fell apart.   Sure lets create a dream team, win one SB, then open our new stadium with Josh Allen and a bunch of D3 college grads.  No thanks. 

 

Trust the Process. 

[ProcessTruster]

18 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

I have a feeling Gabe would prefer a warm weather city to play in, along with a hefty contract.  I don’t see him staying around. 

that is why you sign him now

[mjt328]

17 hours ago, BBFL said:

Push the chips for MH2. 

 

Marvin Harrison Jr. is probably the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson.

He's a lock for a Top 5 pick, and will probably get some #1 overall consideration depending on who is drafting first next year.

 

I would like to hear your plan for getting into a position to obtain this player.

 

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Marvin Harrison Jr. is probably the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson.

He's a lock for a Top 5 pick, and will probably get some #1 overall consideration depending on who is drafting first next year.

 

I would like to hear your plan for getting into a position to obtain this player.

 

The only way that happens is if we look to move on from Diggs and package with picks, not sure what the dead cap hit would be after this season  (Also not saying I have any interest in doing that either)

[machine gun kelly]

7 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I did mention the comp pick which should be slotted in the 97-104 range. But a pair of 6th round picks and a pick in the 97-104 range is not enough to make the Bills go from a pick in the late 1st where they are likely to be all the way to a top 10 pick which is where they will likely need to trade up to in order to get a chance at the top 3 WR's in next years draft. 

 

That's not to say extra picks won't help, but if the Bills are going to want a crack at a top WR in next years draft they are likely going to have to give up a lot more than the extra 6ths and extra late 3rd they picked up. Hell even tossing in those three picks and the Bills 2023 2nd might not be enough to get where they need to go.

 

I agree as I always look at one of the draft value charts before I ever make a comment on value and how to trade up as so much is wildly off on the board.  Sometimes you can over or underpay and it works, but not by a ton as some suggest.  For example a 7th rounder is only worth 1 pt on the JJ table.

 

I still like the idea of how we don’t need a ton of draft picks, rather lumping some together to get a better value pick.

[Mark Vader]

6 hours ago, BBFL said:

Harrison Jr. 

Tank? No. Give up the capital or assets to get him? Yes. 

What would it take to move up to get a player like Harrison, who has a very good chance of going in the top 10?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Maybe

 

But paying a bunch of above average guys isn't the way imo

 

Tend to agree - to me it was oliver or davis and we picked oliver.  

[BBFL]

47 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

What would it take to move up to get a player like Harrison, who has a very good chance of going in the top 10?

Couple of firsts, obviously. Maybe a player also. We’ve seen before where consensus top 10 prospects from the last year have a drop in value due to a myriad of things; injury, lack of production, off the field issues. Anything can happen. Will the latter two happen with his background and track record? Doubtful. So injury is the most likely to cause him to drop down boards. You also have to factor in needs and risers throughout the year. May be possible he ends up going in the 10 to 20 range. Wouldn’t be too hard to jump into those spots. Let’s just hope the wheels don’t fall off this year and we are picking in the ball park of 20 anyway 😂

 

Either way, as it would be projected, it will take some decent capital to get to an area where we can pick him. Unless someone in the room develops into a serious weapon opposite Diggs, might as well swing for the fences whilst Josh is here. Just feel this guy is on par with Julio Jones/AJ Green of recent years. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by BBFL

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

but doing it the Rams way isn't the way either, they will be sucking for years now.   their SB was immediately forgotten once the team immediately went into cap hell and fell apart.   Sure lets create a dream team, win one SB, then open our new stadium with Josh Allen and a bunch of D3 college grads.  No thanks. 

 

Trust the Process. 

Their SB was forgotten?????

 

WHAT AM I READING IN THE YEAR OF OUR LORD 2023 IN BILLS LAND! 

[BBFL]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I remember a lot of people felt the same way about Sammy Watkins, including Whaley, unfortunately.

 

Giving up the kind of assets we would have to give up to get him just isn't smart, except if you're trading up for a possible franchise QB.

 

 

Wasn’t that much really, think we only moved up 4/5 spots. Watkins was ridiculous in college and really improperly used for spells here. Don’t know why it didn’t work out for such a talented prospect. Kid was special in college… even if it was a lot of underneath and YAC production. 

[ddaryl]

We need a young WR capable of taking on Gabes role for a couple of seasons and then taking over for Diggs.

 

Gabe is average, at best, as a #2 wr. Our # 2 wr should be close to 80 catches 1000 yds a year and that's with Allen throwing the football... Gabe hasn't even hit 50 catches or come close to 1000 yds.

 

Gabe will not sign an extension that's cheap enough to make him cuttable, and he hasn't done enough consistently to have this conversation this season IMO... so I'm against it..

Edited June 5, 2023 by ddaryl

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

but doing it the Rams way isn't the way either, they will be sucking for years now.   their SB was immediately forgotten once the team immediately went into cap hell and fell apart.   Sure lets create a dream team, win one SB, then open our new stadium with Josh Allen and a bunch of D3 college grads.  No thanks. 

 

Trust the Process. 

So the Rams actual Super Bowl championship has been forgotten already but we must take steps to ensure our hypothetical one is enshrined in perpetuity

[SCBills]

I'd be willing to offer something like 3/30 or 4/40, but anything beyond that and I think we should probably let him play out this season, recoup another 3rd RD comp pick and draft a WR early next year.  

 

So far, he's shown to be a high end WR3 or low end WR2, in a pass heavy offense, with upper tier deep threat capability. 

 

Maybe there's more there as he continues to develop, and with healthy ankles... but he's had ankle issues on and off for a minute now. 

[Solomon Grundy]

8 hours ago, BBFL said:

Harrison Jr. 

Tank? No. Give up the capital or assets to get him? Yes. 

How about simply restructuring some contracts and get DHop? Go ALL IN this season!!

[BBFL]

54 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

How about simply restructuring some contracts and get DHop? Go ALL IN this season!!

I like Hopkins, think he’s a great talent but need a bit of a friendly contract and I honestly don’t think this unit is in bad shape with the addition of Kincaid. Plus with Oliver’s extension and the signing of Floyd I don’t see them kicking any cash down the line unless it’s Dawkins.

There’s a lot of potential key players; whether role or rotational, who will be Free Agents these next 2 years. With Josh’s contract, Center and both Tackle spots a question mark in that time frame, going to need to inject money to one of those which won’t be cheap. Be it new tackle/s, Dawkins, Brown or a new Center (can’t see Morse lasting), might as well get a potential generational talent on the cheap for a cost controlled 4/5 years to pair with Diggs tail end of his career.
On another note, 2026 looks to be just as an expensive off-season. 
 

Just my 2¢

[Mark Vader]

3 hours ago, BBFL said:

Couple of firsts, obviously. Maybe a player also. We’ve seen before where consensus top 10 prospects from the last year have a drop in value due to a myriad of things; injury, lack of production, off the field issues. Anything can happen. Will the latter two happen with his background and track record? Doubtful. So injury is the most likely to cause him to drop down boards. You also have to factor in needs and risers throughout the year. May be possible he ends up going in the 10 to 20 range. Wouldn’t be too hard to jump into those spots. Let’s just hope the wheels don’t fall off this year and we are picking in the ball park of 20 anyway 😂

 

Either way, as it would be projected, it will take some decent capital to get to an area where we can pick him. Unless someone in the room develops into a serious weapon opposite Diggs, might as well swing for the fences whilst Josh is here. Just feel this guy is on par with Julio Jones/AJ Green of recent years. 

I'm not against this, it'll take a lot of luck to pull this off.