Will the Bills make a draft selection in the first round?

[WickedGame]

Simple question: Will the Bills make a draft selection in the first round? 

[HurlyBurly51]

From sources Deep Within....YEAH

[hondo in seattle]

I was just thinking about this again yesterday when I read Bucky Brooks' article on NFL.com.  He has 5 guys graded as ALL PROS and 10 guys graded as PRO BOWLERS. 

 

So what would we get at 27?  An average starter?   Probably not a 1st round talent.  So why waste a 1st round pick on a 2nd round talent?  I'm not entirely convinced but I think Beane may indeed trade down.

 

www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-all-pros-pro-bowlers-and-overachievers-in-this-class

[KDIGGZ]

They either will or they won't. It's 50-50.

 

I'll say this: if they make the pick they will say that it was the last guy they had a round 1 grade on no matter if they did or didn't (Elam). If they don't pick they will talk about how their 2nd round guy had a round 1 grade anyhow (Ford, Epenesa). Funny how that works!

Edited April 23, 2023 by KDIGGZ

[strive_for_five_guy]

I’d like them to find a partner to trade back with, but I have a suspicion Beane will get antsy and stay put or even move up.

[BeastMaster]

They will want to trade back, but no team will be willing to.

[chongli]

6 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

They will want to trade back, but no team will be willing to.

 

Agreed. There are very few first-round grades in this draft. Unlikely any team is going to want to trade.

[Might Rather]

This is such a crazy year that it's not a simple question. I trust their make the best decision but It's going to be a tough one. 

[MJS]

They'll trade back to 34 with Arizona for DeAndre Hopkins (not sure what other draft picks they will give up for this). At 34 they will draft Jack Campbell!

[Process]

Dream scenario is trading down with AZ for Hopkins. Imagine coming out of the first two rounds with Hopkins, OT Harrison and a starting MLB.

 

I cant imagine who AZ would want to trade up for though.

 

I think it's going to be very difficult to trade down this draft. Best chance is if Hooker is there at the end of Rd 1 and a team want to move back to the end of the first to get him. Seattle and Detroit come to mind. 

[MasterStrategist]

6 minutes ago, Process said:

Dream scenario is trading down with AZ for Hopkins. Imagine coming out of the first two rounds with Hopkins, OT Harrison and a starting MLB.

 

I cant imagine who AZ would want to trade up for though.

 

I think it's going to be very difficult to trade down this draft. Best chance is if Hooker is there at the end of Rd 1 and a team want to move back to the end of the first to get him. Seattle and Detroit come to mind. 

Hopkins is a pipedream and not necessary.  

 

But agree about Hooker, or someone who might be very high on a TE that slips.  That's the most likely way a team is interested in moving up (without us wanting to draft same position/player).

[US Egg]

Bills drafting 27th use to mean all was well with the team.

 

Here’s hoping that’s the still the case.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, WickedGame said:

Simple question: Will the Bills make a draft selection in the first round? 

 

 

My guess is yes.

 

My hope is they trade back and get some extra picks.

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

I'm not sure "yes, of course" sums up my view. It is "yes" but not sure it is "of course." I think they probably will pick in round 1. But I am not sure it is a slam dunk. 

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I was just thinking about this again yesterday when I read Bucky Brooks' article on NFL.com.  He has 5 guys graded as ALL PROS and 10 guys graded as PRO BOWLERS. 

 

So what would we get at 27?  An average starter?   Probably not a 1st round talent.  So why waste a 1st round pick on a 2nd round talent?  I'm not entirely convinced but I think Beane may indeed trade down.

 

www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-all-pros-pro-bowlers-and-overachievers-in-this-class

 

 

I do hear you, but honestly, every year there are usually somewhere between roughly 15 and 20 first round grades. At 27 we're rarely going to get a guy to fall to us, unless our grading greatly differs from most on someone, which could easily happen, really.

[SoMAn]

I think a trade back would largely depend on how far back they’d have to go and what they’re getting in return. 

Would it be worth getting pick # 50 (for example) and an extra 3rd-round pick? 

Is there a team with multiple twos who want to move into round 1?  Would Beane accept a couple of middle twos for pick # 27?

Would a veteran player and another pick do it?  I don’t see that happening since a team would usually only part with a decent player for cap reasons. The Bills are already being creative with their limited cap space. 
 

In my opinion, it could go any way. Beane could just as likely send one of our players away to relieve cap and move closer to a prospect with a first  round grade. 
 

If there’s any movement by Beane and the Bills, I don’t think it will happen until they’re well into round 1 and there’s a clearer picture of what options will be available at # 27. 

 

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I do hear you, but honestly, every year there are usually somewhere between roughly 15 and 20 first round grades. At 27 we're rarely going to get a guy to fall to us, unless our grading greatly differs from most on someone, which could easily happen, really.

 

I had 18 and 4 borderlines last year. 18 ands 5 borderlines in 2021. I have 11 and 5 borderlines this year. It is definitely less likely a guy falls to #27 this year than other years. But equally You are going to get 4, maybe 5 QBs go earlyish... only one of whom is in my 11+5 so there is a chance that pushes some talent down. 

[Doc Brown]

I'd say there's around an 80 to 90% chance we pick in the first round.  Either a first round graded player by the Bills falls to them, they can't find a trade partner to move down into the second round with, they move up like they did last year for Elam who was their last first round grade, or they don't want to risk the highest guy on their board (with a 2nd round grade) not falling to them in the second round.

 

There may be a qb needy team after Hooker to get ahead of the Saints at #29.  That's pry where the Bills could find a trade down partner.  Not likely but possible.

[ProcessTruster]

Here's a poll subject:  Yes or No:   "If I see one more draft thread or podcast I will shoot myself.  "

[Kirby Jackson]

This draft just doesn’t have the high end talent of others. I don’t think that the Bills pick at 27. Beane LOVES to go up to get his guy. There is a lot of talk about going down but I think it’s just as likely that they go up.
 

Ideally, I’d like to see them do something like 27 & 2024 4th for Hopkins and 34. 

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

They will want to trade back, but no team will be willing to.

Exactly,  why would any team want to trade up with us for 2nd round talent?

[Chaos]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

My guess is yes.

 

My hope is they trade back and get some extra picks.

 

 

I would not mind them trading back and getting extra picks.  But I have to admit its a bit weird  to be thinking "this is a bad draft, so what I want are more worse picks".   If their are actually five all-pros and 10 probowlers in a "bad draft".  Trade up and get one of those guys seems more rational.

[Chandler#81]

 

[Chandler#81]

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

29 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

I hope they sang him the song!!!

 

🎵We want John Michael Jingleheimer Schmitz!!🎶

[Jamie Mueller]

13 hours ago, chongli said:

 

Agreed. There are very few first-round grades in this draft. Unlikely any team is going to want to trade.

 

13 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

They will want to trade back, but no team will be willing to.

All it takes is one team willing to move up for a specific player that their scouts are in love with...

[Sierra Foothills]

13 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

They will want to trade back, but no team will be willing to.

 

I think a trade down is still possible but it could be a year where the trade compensation is not as good for the team trading down.

 

12 hours ago, Process said:

Dream scenario is trading down with AZ for Hopkins. Imagine coming out of the first two rounds with Hopkins, OT Harrison and a starting MLB.

 

I cant imagine who AZ would want to trade up for though.

 

Hopkins' replacement?

 

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

I would not mind them trading back and getting extra picks.  But I have to admit its a bit weird  to be thinking "this is a bad draft, so what I want are more worse picks".   If their are actually five all-pros and 10 probowlers in a "bad draft".  Trade up and get one of those guys seems more rational.

 

Except for the fact that none of those 15 players is a sure thing. Even among "consensus first rounders" some of them are gonna bust.

 

Conversely, some of the players who are graded and taken lower might end up having decorated careers.

 

Those are the two reasons you would stand pat or trade down for more picks... but not trade up.

 

[Chaos]

53 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

I think a trade down is still possible but it could be a year where the trade compensation is not as good for the team trading down.

 

 

Hopkins' replacement?

 

 

Except for the fact that none of those 15 players is a sure thing. Even among "consensus first rounders" some of them are gonna bust.

 

Conversely, some of the players who are graded and taken lower might end up having decorated careers.

 

Those are the two reasons you would stand pat or trade down for more picks... but not trade up.

 

"just pull a name out of a hat strategy, someones gotta stick"

[MJS]

5 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Exactly,  why would any team want to trade up with us for 2nd round talent?

Arizona being able to dump Hopkins and get something for him might be incentive enough.

[billykay]

7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This draft just doesn’t have the high end talent of others. I don’t think that the Bills pick at 27. Beane LOVES to go up to get his guy. There is a lot of talk about going down but I think it’s just as likely that they go up.
 

Ideally, I’d like to see them do something like 27 & 2024 4th for Hopkins and 34. 

I'd like that but can they afford the salary ?

[Beck Water]

17 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I was just thinking about this again yesterday when I read Bucky Brooks' article on NFL.com.  He has 5 guys graded as ALL PROS and 10 guys graded as PRO BOWLERS. 

 

So what would we get at 27?  An average starter?   Probably not a 1st round talent.  So why waste a 1st round pick on a 2nd round talent?  I'm not entirely convinced but I think Beane may indeed trade down.

 

www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-all-pros-pro-bowlers-and-overachievers-in-this-class

 

Whatever gave you the notion that the only players worth drafting in the 1st round are pro bowlers and all pros?

Second, whatever gave you the notion that the truly talented 1st round players who become pro bowlers and all pros, are the ones that the likes of Bucky Brooks identifies?

 

The point of the 1st round is you get a chance to draft and sign player on a cost controlled contract for 5 years.  If he's a solid starter within 2 years, you win.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Three years ago the fifth year guarantee was important. 

Now the priority is adding multiple players on cheap contracts.

The SuperBowl window for this front office will be closed if they don't win in the next few years. They need multiple contributors on the cheap now. 

Trade back 10 spots and you likely net a high 3rd round pick. That gives you four picks in the top 100 with another 4 in the top 100 next year with the Edmunds comp pick. 

[Don Otreply]

8 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

Here's a poll subject:  Yes or No:   "If I see one more draft thread or podcast I will shoot myself.  "

Yup, what we really don’t need is a “ who are we gonna take in the fifth round, TE or OL “ thread, there’s a some one on here who seems to love this sort of thing…, 😂

[The Jokeman]

8 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Exactly,  why would any team want to trade up with us for 2nd round talent?

If it's a QB that falls you get that extra year under a rookie contract. 

[MarkyMannn]

5 hours ago, Chaos said:

I would not mind them trading back and getting extra picks.  But I have to admit its a bit weird  to be thinking "this is a bad draft, so what I want are more worse picks".   If their are actually five all-pros and 10 probowlers in a "bad draft".  Trade up and get one of those guys seems more rational.

This is like how I see every draft.

 

We're thinking a draft night party, but Bills picking at 1030pm or so, and a strong feeling when Bills get there trading down out of first round. Maybe no party after all

[purple haze]

17 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I was just thinking about this again yesterday when I read Bucky Brooks' article on NFL.com.  He has 5 guys graded as ALL PROS and 10 guys graded as PRO BOWLERS. 

 

So what would we get at 27?  An average starter?   Probably not a 1st round talent.  So why waste a 1st round pick on a 2nd round talent?  I'm not entirely convinced but I think Beane may indeed trade down.

 

www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-all-pros-pro-bowlers-and-overachievers-in-this-class

If what Bucky says is accurate other teams might see the same thing.  So who would Beane be trading with?  What are they coming up for?    I would like a trade back to to get extra picks.  The caveat is who are those 15 players Bucky references?    Can they get one at 27?  Can they move up to 20-21 and grab one?     

[Kirby Jackson]

6 hours ago, billykay said:

I'd like that but can they afford the salary ?

The cap isn’t real. Lol, I’ve been preaching that here for a decade. They can absolutely afford him if they want to. It’s a matter of whether or not it makes sense. They’d probably extend him instantly. They’d have a window with he and Diggs. Davis would likely be in his last year on the team.

[FireChans]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The cap isn’t real. Lol, I’ve been preaching that here for a decade. They can absolutely afford him if they want to. It’s a matter of whether or not it makes sense. They’d probably extend him instantly. They’d have a window with he and Diggs. Davis would likely be in his last year on the team.

And when Davis signs a big contract elsewhere, you’ve upgraded the position already with Hopkins and gained another conditional pick coming back.

[hondo in seattle]

On 4/23/2023 at 12:54 PM, purple haze said:

If what Bucky says is accurate other teams might see the same thing.  So who would Beane be trading with?  What are they coming up for?    I would like a trade back to to get extra picks.  The caveat is who are those 15 players Bucky references?    Can they get one at 27?  Can they move up to 20-21 and grab one?     

 

It's a good point.  But all we need is one team to love a guy at 27.

 

But I'm not entirely convinced Beane wants to trade back nor am I convinced that he'll find a dance partner even if he does.  It'll be an interesting evening. 

 

I remember the year Buddy picked CJ Spiller.  He practically announced his intentions to the world before the draft.  The pick was no surprise.  Beane hasn't been dropping meaningful hints and nothing he does this year will surprise me.  

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[msw2112]

On 4/22/2023 at 6:59 PM, BeastMaster said:

They will want to trade back, but no team will be willing to.

 

The Bills know it's not a deep draft and that there are not 27 players with first round grades.  We on this board know this.  And the rest of the NFL knows this too.  Thus, trading back is only an option of a guy that one of the other teams covet happens to fall and be available at 27.