The Consensus BPA Draft for the Bills

[Chaos]

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-draft-industry-consensus-big-board/

 

Pro Football Network has compiled an industry big board, consolidating the results of 25 of the major big boards created in the cottage industry that follows the draft. 

 

Premise 1) 25 big boards is a meaningfully proxy for how a team of scouts would grade out the players in the Draft
Premise 2) Every team sticks to BPA at every draft spot

 

Obvisouly neither premise 1 or premise 2 is gong to happen. In this scenario the Bills get an RB at pick 59.  They would also get an RB at 91, so I made the one small adjustment to go to pick 92.  But if these are proxies for people being slaves to board, this is the draft the Bills would have.  I am not a fan. 

  

[DrDawkinstein]

 

The TBD server would crash so hard it would create a singularity and suck the entire universe into itself. Which, at least means we wouldnt have to live with this draft. So not all bad.

 

Although I do really like Ringo.

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

The TBD server would crash so hard it would create a singularity and suck the entire universe into itself. Which, at least means we wouldnt have to live with this draft. So not all bad.

 

Although I do really like Ringo.

There are a number of posters who post condescending "good teams always draft BPA".  When if fact there is no certainity who the BPA is, and no team actually ingores positional value and need.  A true slave to BPA draft would likely be a disaster. 

I like this websites way of showing each teams realistic targets at each pick. 

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/nfl-draft-targets-2023?team=BUF



Much more realistic way to think about it. 

[DrDawkinstein]

10 minutes ago, Chaos said:

There are a number of posters who post condescending "good teams always draft BPA".  When if fact there is no certainity who the BPA is, and no team actually ingores positional value and need.  A true slave to BPA draft would likely be a disaster. 

I like this websites way of showing each teams realistic targets at each pick. 

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/nfl-draft-targets-2023?team=BUF



Much more realistic way to think about it. 

 

That's a great selection of players available at 27 and 59. Would love for it to work out that way. Could do any number of things.

 

I wouldnt even mind Branch at 27 if we could get any of those IOL at 59.

[Dubie54]

I think it's 70% positional value/need and 30% BPA, which means we are picking the guy that we best feel fills a needed gap but if by some token of good fortune somebody drops to us that we can't ignore, we take 'em, with the understanding that we will need to fill that gap we missed on in a later round. My sense is that you enter a draft with a number of holes that need to be taken care of, dare say have to be filled, and you approach it from that standpoint. If we come out of the draft with a bunch of guys that were BPA at every point when we picked we might just come out of the draft not a whole lot better off because we still have glaring weaknesses that weren't addressed. I would argue the top 3 positions of need are: OL, LB, WR. Sure there are other positions of need and we will deal with those but I would argue those are the top 3. Now the key is in what order do you deal with that and that my friends is why BB is paid the big bucks and why is butt is on the line this year with how we come out of this draft. 

[Big Turk]

20 minutes ago, Chaos said:

There are a number of posters who post condescending "good teams always draft BPA".  When if fact there is no certainity who the BPA is, and no team actually ingores positional value and need.  A true slave to BPA draft would likely be a disaster. 

I like this websites way of showing each teams realistic targets at each pick. 

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/nfl-draft-targets-2023?team=BUF



Much more realistic way to think about it. 

 

Typically they have players grouped and will take the best player of that group.

 

That takes into account needs, positional value/scheme, players likely to need replacing soon, etc.

 

It's impossible to know BPA like this because each team values certain things to varying degrees in players. Some teams want only scheme fits, others will take a player who may not have ever played their scheme but they seem he has traits they believe will allow him to transition into what they need him to do and others simply are so arrogant they think they can coach any player to work in their scheme and just take whoever is the best in their minds without much regard to how they actually will fit(oversimplifying but mostly it's the same...they think the player fits way better than they actually do based on over aggressive projections).

 

Also we have no idea what teams have players off the boards due to medical concerns or other issues. Each team doctor views those differently.

 

So while this is a valiant effort, it doesn't make a lot of sense because every team and scheme will value a player differently and it lacks any nuance when it comes to this and kind of goes for a one size fits all approach.

 

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Big Turk

[papazoid]

assuming the draft fell that way

 

the bills should take one of those OT's

 

Anton Harrison Oklahoma 

Darnell Wright Tennessee

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I like Tank Dell in the 3rd, but that's it.

 

After re-signing Poyer and signing Rapp, (and drafting Elam and Benford) we are NOT taking a cb in the 1st and 3 db's total.

 

We are absolutely not taking a power rb in the 2nd after signing Damien Harris and drafting Cook last year.

 

I believe we will draft an offensive lineman, linebacker, and tight end in the first three rounds, but the order will depend on the BPA.

 

 

[gobills404]

First 3 picks would suck and the last 3 pick would be great.

[MJS]

BPA isn't actually a thing. When people say that, they really mean "BPA among our list of needs / wants". No team truly picks BPA.

[BillsShredder83]

Pounding the table for Addison or best tackle/DT avail

[BillsFanForever19]

6 hours ago, Chaos said:

There are a number of posters who post condescending "good teams always draft BPA".  When if fact there is no certainity who the BPA is, and no team actually ingores positional value and need.  A true slave to BPA draft would likely be a disaster. 

I like this websites way of showing each teams realistic targets at each pick. 

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/nfl-draft-targets-2023?team=BUF



Much more realistic way to think about it. 

 

If that's the board at each round, I'd be happy with:

 

1.) WR Jordan Addison

2.) OT Andrew Bergeron

3.) LB Henry To'oTo'o

4.) IOL Andrew Vorhees

5.) RB Kendre Miller

6.) LB Mohamoud Diabate

Edited April 5, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[Yantha]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

There are a number of posters who post condescending "good teams always draft BPA".  When if fact there is no certainity who the BPA is, and no team actually ingores positional value and need.  A true slave to BPA draft would likely be a disaster. 

I like this websites way of showing each teams realistic targets at each pick. 

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/nfl-draft-targets-2023?team=BUF



Much more realistic way to think about it. 

 

Love this resource.  Thanks for posting the link.

 

From this "projection", it looks as if the first spot where LB would come off the board is AFTER our pick at 27.

 

Sanders:

The first linebacker projected by this site would be Drew Sanders, between pick 30 (Eagles) - pick 43 (Jets).  If Sanders is the target for the Bills, they could "stick and pick" Sanders at 27 unless someone moves up.

 

Campbell and Simpson tie:

The second linebacker comes off way down at pick 43 (Jets) and it's either Campbell or Simpson.  If we missed on linebacker in round 1 or went with OT (or other BPA...), the Bills would have to get aggressive in round two to trade ahead of the Jets.  Alternatively, the Bills could just trade down to something like 33ish.....  and still have a very good chance at one of the top 3 linebackers (PLUS net extra picks...).

 

I vote for the trade down unless a top 15 prospect tumbles to 27.

 

 

[unbillievable]

The Bills will go from two 3rd round RB's in Singletary and Moss to having two 2nd round RB's in Cook and Charbonett.

[GunnerBill]

People misunderstand BPA. 

 

BPA can mean "who is the single highest grade on our board". But it rarely does. It only tends to when a team has a player sticking out. 

 

So when the Bills told you in 2021 that Basham was BPA by the time they got to that spot I believe he was sticking out and even though they'd already drafted one edge their view was that to leave him on the board when they had him considerably higher than everyone else left would have been foolish. Whenever you see a team draft a guy and think "they didn't need that player" the likelihood is he was their BPA. Kyle Hamilton to the Ravens last year is another example and, in fact, if there is a team that historically sticks to BPA better than most it is Baltimore. 

 

But in the majority of cases when a team goes on the clock they do not have a guy sticking out as BPA. Fans tend to think about draft boards in a vertical sense. "Well Ringo is #27 on their big board so he is better than #28" when in reality they are horizontal beasts. And after the top 10 or so picks you very often will have multiple players in the same tier when you are on the clock and you choose one guy from that tier. Reaching for need is the thing you should never do but taking #29 over #27 is unlikely to be that. Reaching for need means taking someone from the next tier down. 

 

A good proxy for the way it actually works in @Chaos's exercise would be to look at the next 5 players on the board at each of the Bills 6 picks. And make a choice among those. That would still be true to BPA because in this example there is no guy "sticking out" because assumption #1 is everyone else sticks slavishly to the order (which definitely won't happen). 

[Richard Noggin]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

There are a number of posters who post condescending "good teams always draft BPA".  When if fact there is no certainity who the BPA is, and no team actually ingores positional value and need.  A true slave to BPA draft would likely be a disaster. 

I like this websites way of showing each teams realistic targets at each pick. 

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/nfl-draft-targets-2023?team=BUF



Much more realistic way to think about it. 

 

Definitely appreciate this approach to identifying a range of "realistic targets" per pick, filtered by perceived roster need and positional value. It's a neat exercise, and I enjoy this type of pre-draft analysis. 

 

However, it would be unfortunate to use this type of projected/hypothetical data point to criticize any team's draft decisions, within reason. The Bills might very well have a couple-two-tree tight ends on their 1st round target list, or a couple linebackers, in addition to these receivers and linemen. And who could reasonably blame them (I type, knowing full well the answer is: anyone)? 

[Freddie's Dead]

Brutal draft for the Bills.  All skill players?  Insane.

[PrimeTime101]

6 hours ago, Chaos said:

There are a number of posters who post condescending "good teams always draft BPA".  When if fact there is no certainity who the BPA is, and no team actually ingores positional value and need.  A true slave to BPA draft would likely be a disaster. 

I like this websites way of showing each teams realistic targets at each pick. 

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/nfl-draft-targets-2023?team=BUF



Much more realistic way to think about it. 

I am not sure you are getting it Chaos. Some people think BPA what ever the best player is on the board YOU TAKE! others think of BPA is Best Player Available at Value... and that is how they really draft. They have a value at every position at every level of the draft. where as Round 1 is highest value is WR for example so there might be a say a HB there that is slightly better than a WR, then they will still go WR cause of the value they have on that position in that round. Others think BPA in that same example you should take the HB because he is slightly better. 

 

Its train of thought of what BPA means to people and again here I am another year before another draft, explaining this all over again.. for the second time this year. Thats why you got the dislikes and the pukes on your OP. 

[OldTimer1960]

6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

That's a great selection of players available at 27 and 59. Would love for it to work out that way. Could do any number of things.

 

I wouldnt even mind Branch at 27 if we could get any of those IOL at 59.

I don’t know about Branch being a fit here.  I think he is good, but from everything I’ve read he is basically a slot corner with pretty good size for that position, excellent instincts and tackling skills.  He might be better than Taron Johnson, but Johnson is pretty good, himself.  Would Branch be as good playing a safety role as the Bills play it?  

[SirAndrew]

8 hours ago, Chaos said:

There are a number of posters who post condescending "good teams always draft BPA".  When if fact there is no certainity who the BPA is, and no team actually ingores positional value and need.  A true slave to BPA draft would likely be a disaster. 

I like this websites way of showing each teams realistic targets at each pick. 

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/nfl-draft-targets-2023?team=BUF



Much more realistic way to think about it. 

That’s actually really cool, thanks for sharing. Just one thing, no receivers named Zay please. 

[Don Otreply]

BPA is AWAYS a perceived need, is subjective, and varies from round to round, and GM to GM, there is no consensus, ever. 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Don Otreply

[papazoid]

BPA is and should be a big thing

 

before the draft , you should have a big board, rated strictly for talent from 1-300. you've had months to prepare it, on draft day there should be zero discussions on the order based on talent. 

 

before the draft, you should  prepare for various scenarios of who you would pick at #27 & #59, etc........whether trading up, down or staying put based on talent AND need is the best way to go. hundreds of scenarios pre rehearsed. 

 

LUCK is when PREPARATION meets OPPURTUNITY

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Just now, papazoid said:

BPA is and should be a big thing

 

before the draft , you should have a big board, rated strictly for talent from 1-300. you've had months to prepare it, on draft day there should be zero discussions on the order based on talent. 

 

before the draft, you should  prepare for various scenarios of who you would pick at #27 & #59, etc........whether trading up, down or staying put based on talent AND need is the best way to go. hundreds of scenarios pre rehearsed. 

 

LUCK is when PREPARATION meets OPPURTUNITY

This is nonsense.  There is no difference in talent between the 15th ranked player and the 50th. No difference between 100 and 150. And after 150 they are all the same.  These guys can't predict who will be a great player anymore than anyone else. Diggs is the second best player on the team and the best WR in Bills history and he was a 5th round pick. 

Oliver is a serviceable starting DT and was a top 10 pick. Hardly what you want from a top 10 let alone first round pick. The examples are endless of busts and stars drafted early and late. 

Like Brad Pitt says in money ball, "You think you know,  but you don't "

 

11 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

BPA is AWAYS a perceived need, is subjective, and varies from week to week, and GM to GM, there is no consensus, ever. 

Really, there was no consensus Bills needed a QB, MLB, DT, Edge, and CB when they drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, and Elam??? I think 99% of this board knew those positions were getting drafted.

The only difference this year is there is not one glaring weakness. There are areas that need improvement in the WR group, OL, and obviously MLB. But the team has options some good some awful for those units that are already on the team or have been signed in FA. 

[nosejob]

10 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Pounding the table for Addison or best tackle/DT avail

KANCEY!!!!!!

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

11 hours ago, Chaos said:

I like this websites way of showing each teams realistic targets at each pick. 

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/nfl-draft-targets-2023?team=BUF



Much more realistic way to think about it. 

 

These guys think the Bills are good at Tight End I guess. Or they forgot about the position? We at least do need a #2 tight end, even if it is a late round. 

[Airseven]

BPA is out the window this year with so many holes and needs. BPA is the ideal, but the Bills don’t have that luxury.

[Aussie Joe]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

People misunderstand BPA. 

 

BPA can mean "who is the single highest grade on our board". But it rarely does. It only tends to when a team has a player sticking out. 

 

So when the Bills told you in 2021 that Basham was BPA by the time they got to that spot I believe he was sticking out and even though they'd already drafted one edge their view was that to leave him on the board when they had him considerably higher than everyone else left would have been foolish. Whenever you see a team draft a guy and think "they didn't need that player" the likelihood is he was their BPA. Kyle Hamilton to the Ravens last year is another example and, in fact, if there is a team that historically sticks to BPA better than most it is Baltimore. 

 

 

They picked Basham at the end of the 2nd …I wonder if they had a first round grade on him?

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

They picked Basham at the end of the 2nd …I wonder if they had a first round grade on him?

 

They indicated after the draft that he was on their long list of considerations at the spot they took Groot. I forget the exact wording but it was basically they were not saying they would have taken him if Groot wasn't there but he was someone they had talked about in that spot. I think they had either a 1st or an early 2nd on him. 

 

I don't think Basham was a reach for need as some people have suggested. I think he was a terrible talent evaluation. 

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They indicated after the draft that he was on their long list of considerations at the spot they took Groot. I forget the exact wording but it was basically they were not saying they would have taken him if Groot wasn't there but he was someone they had talked about in that spot. I think they had either a 1st or an early 2nd on him. 

 

I don't think Basham was a reach for need as some people have suggested. I think he was a terrible talent evaluation. 

I hated that pick at the time… said so in the draft thread here ..

 

I do recall Beane saying that he was “ sticking out” on their board…

 

They got that one wrong…

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

This is nonsense.  There is no difference in talent between the 15th ranked player and the 50th. No difference between 100 and 150. And after 150 they are all the same.  These guys can't predict who will be a great player anymore than anyone else. Diggs is the second best player on the team and the best WR in Bills history and he was a 5th round pick. 

Oliver is a serviceable starting DT and was a top 10 pick. Hardly what you want from a top 10 let alone first round pick. The examples are endless of busts and stars drafted early and late. 

Like Brad Pitt says in money ball, "You think you know,  but you don't "

 

Really, there was no consensus Bills needed a QB, MLB, DT, Edge, and CB when they drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, and Elam??? I think 99% of this board knew those positions were getting drafted.

The only difference this year is there is not one glaring weakness. There are areas that need improvement in the WR group, OL, and obviously MLB. But the team has options some good some awful for those units that are already on the team or have been signed in FA. 

There is no consensus from team to team and many time within a team, as to who the  BPA is in the environment of the draft,  BPA is always need driven, always. You are being obtuse, the Bills needed a quality QB for well over a decade pre Allen, the previous regimes inability to even give a good effort to get one and the results of that lackluster effort had become a running joke league wide, or had you not noticed? 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I hated that pick at the time… said so in the draft thread here ..

 

I do recall Beane saying that he was “ sticking out” on their board…

 

They got that one wrong…

 

Me too. I just never saw how his skillset translated. 

[Dr. Who]

18 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I hated that pick at the time… said so in the draft thread here ..

 

I do recall Beane saying that he was “ sticking out” on their board…

 

They got that one wrong…

I bet the board was saying "I'm your Dline Cody Ford."

[Aussie Joe]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I bet the board was saying "I'm your Dline Cody Ford."

A few people were supportive of the pick…..one guy who still posts here wanted to actually take him in the first …

 

Of course most wanted Creed Humphrey who went a pick or two later to KC..

[ColoradoBills]

Just as the anticipated return of the swallows to San Juan Capistrano so is a thread about BPA and teams draft needs.

 

Part of the reason is how web sites present their "Big Boards" to fans.  They always have it listed from #1-#250 (or how ever far they go).

This has been proven wrong by NFL teams and former GMs for years.  Players are stacked by POSITION in levels that ultimately relates to 

draft rounds or parts of rounds, or in the case of later rounds, multiple rounds.  

 

Why some fans insist that is not true is a puzzlement to me.  Here are 2 lengthy articles about how it's done.  They are lengthy because the process

that goes into it is complicated.  The ESPN article even has some interesting symbols that teams use to identify specific areas of concern on

players. 

 

I invite any fan who still believes in BPA (or fans in general who want to understand the process) to read the articles.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31209852/nfl-draft-board-building-101-secretive-yearlong-grind

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1953077-how-nfl-teams-put-together-a-big-board-for-the-nfl-draft

[machine gun kelly]

C u on draft day boys.  I’m over the non stop speculation.

 

Im sure all of you have great ideas.  Bottom line, I trust Beane.

 

The GM of the year two years ago will figure it out.

[ScorpionZero]

No way we take 2 CBs and 2 WRs. 

 

The draft had to be a balance between, talent, stats, level of competition, and need. With a pinch of gut feeling.

 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

14 hours ago, Dubie54 said:

I think it's 70% positional value/need and 30% BPA, which means we are picking the guy that we best feel fills a needed gap but if by some token of good fortune somebody drops to us that we can't ignore, we take 'em, with the understanding that we will need to fill that gap we missed on in a later round. My sense is that you enter a draft with a number of holes that need to be taken care of, dare say have to be filled, and you approach it from that standpoint. If we come out of the draft with a bunch of guys that were BPA at every point when we picked we might just come out of the draft not a whole lot better off because we still have glaring weaknesses that weren't addressed. I would argue the top 3 positions of need are: OL, LB, WR. Sure there are other positions of need and we will deal with those but I would argue those are the top 3. Now the key is in what order do you deal with that and that my friends is why BB is paid the big bucks and why is butt is on the line this year with how we come out of this draft. 

Excellent analysis.  I'm not sure that the Bills are as freaked out over the o-line as many of us are.  I agree that they will add to the o-line but it may happen in round 4 or later.  We also should not be surprised if a DE is taken among the first three picks.  I think the Bills are still concerned about their inability to get to the passer with a four man rush. I think they will be looking for a guy that is quick off the edge.  None of the current incumbents (except Miller) are quick off the ball.  McD was not a big blitz guy in Carolina, hasn't been one in Buffalo, and probably doesn't want to become one now.

 

WR and LB are more widely viewed as obvious needs.  With the free agent moves already made by Beane for WR, he may be looking at some day two guys that need some development.  He may believe that the worthwhile guys will already be gone by pick 27.  I just have a (sick) feeling that Campbell or Sanders are going to be their early target.  It's almost like when many of us knew that Oliver wasn't going to get past the Bills at 9 overall.  I didn't like the pick then and I still don't like it now.

[Alphadawg7]

16 hours ago, Chaos said:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-draft-industry-consensus-big-board/

 

Pro Football Network has compiled an industry big board, consolidating the results of 25 of the major big boards created in the cottage industry that follows the draft. 

 

Premise 1) 25 big boards is a meaningfully proxy for how a team of scouts would grade out the players in the Draft
Premise 2) Every team sticks to BPA at every draft spot

 

Obvisouly neither premise 1 or premise 2 is gong to happen. In this scenario the Bills get an RB at pick 59.  They would also get an RB at 91, so I made the one small adjustment to go to pick 92.  But if these are proxies for people being slaves to board, this is the draft the Bills would have.  I am not a fan. 

  

 

Luckily there is no chance we are going CB in round 1.  Zach in the 2nd wouldn't surprise me though.  

 

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Chaos]

I hope we can put together for ever the BPA myth and realize all teams include need and positional value in putting together their boards. ( regardless of my hopes in real life there is no way to do me a football myth)

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

I hope we can put together for ever the BPA myth and realize all teams include need and positional value in putting together their boards. ( regardless of my hopes in real life there is no way to do me a football myth)

positional value = need. teams give their own personal value on positions due to need. but yea I agree... It has not changed on these boards for years. still won't. Bottom line, people have the right to think what they want... right, wrong or indifferent. is what it is

 

you know I am on board with you on this.