Awwufelloff Posted September 13, 2022 Author Share Posted September 13, 2022 (edited) 25 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said: Ensemble’s don’t because they are probabilistic not deterministic, which is why they are so accurate as they account for a chaotic environment. They are exceptional at picking up on mesoscale features such as pulse (pop up) or air mass convection. Look up the NOAA HRRR, it’s amazing. The UKMO is the UK Model. I've used the UKIE quite a bit. Pivotal has a great model set for UK and Euro High Res. I use the HRRR quite a bit in severe season along with NAM 3KM. HRRR is best for convection with its higher res. Edited September 13, 2022 by Awwufelloff 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCofNC Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 Looks like high probability of Josh bringing the thunder and making it rain all over the Titans. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPL Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said: Well really what was the last good weather game the Bills have had at home? It’s been a very long time Home opener vs Seahawks in 08 is the last one I remember. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ControllerOfPlanetX Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 it will be stormy, but Josh will part Lake Erie and lead us to the promise land. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro Nimbus Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 Dont worry. By Friday, the forecast will say high of 40 with scattered snow showers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 They can’t get the forecast correct for an afternoon, at 8AM the same morning. 6 days away…laughable. 😂😂 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlCowlingsTaxiService Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 5 hours ago, Awwufelloff said: Still up in the air. Buf national weather service discusses the differences in the models Sunday and beyond...there are big difference in the guidance packages, from zonal flow transitioning to a trough over the region (chances for showers), to amplification of the mid- level ridge (dry weather). Have gone with NBM guidance with this much uncertainty this far out. Is this Pope Don Paul? 😂 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 Too early to have a serious, detailed discussion about weather on Monday night. In four days or so we'll have a pretty solid idea of what to expect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 2 hours ago, MPL said: Home opener vs Seahawks in 08 is the last one I remember. Nah, Fitzy win vs Pats was a nice day weather wise. That was what 2011? Definitely been others since. 4 hours ago, YoloinOhio said: Well really what was the last good weather game the Bills have had at home? It’s been a very long time Vs Rams 2020 was a good weather day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 6 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said: I’m a mailman, look outside….. that’s the only way to know what the weather is doing where you are. The ONLY thing more worthless than a weather forecast is a postal manager. Is that you and Peter King? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 I’m predicting sunny and 75 here in Southern California, in case anyone was wondering. 😉 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Looking at the 10 day forecast right now and the only day with rain is Monday, all the others are sunny. SMFH. The way too early forecast looks like temps in the low 70s and potential scattered TStorms. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 4 hours ago, Boatdrinks said: Rams 2020 was a good weather day. That whole season was pretty good weather wise which of course coincided with the one year they didn't allow fans in the stands. Season opener against Jets, the warm November Seahawks game, and the Antonio Williams game against Miami comes to mind. The only crappy game I recall is the weird Thursday night game against the Chiefs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franco_92 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Doc Brown said: That whole season was pretty good weather wise which of course coincided with the one year they didn't allow fans in the stands. Season opener against Jets, the warm November Seahawks game, and the Antonio Williams game against Miami comes to mind. The only crappy game I recall is the weird Thursday night game against the Chiefs. from my memory: Jets game was great weather. Rams game was also great. Chiefs was rainy and cold, but not particularly windy? Pats game was cold, windy, and rainy. Bills ran for a lot of yards. Seahawks game weather felt too good to be true, I remember raking in a t shirt after. Chargers game was about as good as you could hope for in November. Steelers game was kinda gross Dolphins game, as good as you could ask for in the winter Colts game, the same. Neither game had noticeable wind, Bass hit a 54 yarder Ravens game, pretty damn bad 6/10 games were about as good as it can get for that time of year in Buffalo. The Ravens and Pats games were played fundamentally different from how they could have been because of wind. Chiefs/Steelers, throwing the ball was a lot easier, but were wet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Big Turk said: Looking at the 10 day forecast right now and the only day with rain is Monday, all the others are sunny. SMFH. The way too early forecast looks like temps in the low 70s and potential scattered TStorms. I don't want to get wet. You wouldn't like me when I'm wet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awwufelloff Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 Buffalo national weather service has introduced a chance at shower Monday night. 😧 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 4 hours ago, Awwufelloff said: Buffalo national weather service has introduced a chance at shower Monday night. 😧 Of course its going to shower during an important conference game home opener. I wouldnt expect anything less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddyjj Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 6 hours ago, Doc Brown said: That whole season was pretty good weather wise which of course coincided with the one year they didn't allow fans in the stands. Season opener against Jets, the warm November Seahawks game, and the Antonio Williams game against Miami comes to mind. The only crappy game I recall is the weird Thursday night game against the Chiefs. That Chiefs game was lousy weather but was on a MON night just 6 days after playing Titans on a TUE night in Nashville. Was a wonky week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJB Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 (edited) Anyone know if this Weather guy can hold? 🧐 Edited September 14, 2022 by DJB 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draconator Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 11 hours ago, SoCal Deek said: I’m predicting sunny and 175 here in Southern California, in case anyone was wondering. 😉 fixed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Behindenemylines Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 18 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said: I’m a mailman, look outside….. that’s the only way to know what the weather is doing where you are. The ONLY thing more worthless than a weather forecast is a postal manager. Thanks Cliff! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Behindenemylines said: Thanks Cliff! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 45% chance of Scattered Thunderstorms "especially before midnight" hopefully it changes/we avoid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Sal said he talking to someone, I'm assuming a meteorologist, basically said they don't know when or how much rain, but it's going to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Sal said he talking to someone, I'm assuming a meteorologist, basically said they don't know when or how much rain, but it's going to. Is it too much to ask for a nice home game?! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills!Win! Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said: 45% chance of Scattered Thunderstorms "especially before midnight" hopefully it changes/we avoid I’ll take a chance at 45%. I just want the thunderstorms to stay away so there’s no delay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awwufelloff Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 The front will stall just north of Lake Ontario through the rest of the weekend, as a deepening trough and sfc low tracks across Central Ontario precip will expand and push farther south across the northern half of the region. This will result in the potential for showers from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon mainly for areas from I90 northward. As the sfc low and trough continues east and crosses into Quebec, the trailing cold front will cross the forecast area, increasing the potential for showers for the entire area on Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Showers will taper off from northwest to southeast through the morning on Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills!Win! Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 7 hours ago, Awwufelloff said: The front will stall just north of Lake Ontario through the rest of the weekend, as a deepening trough and sfc low tracks across Central Ontario precip will expand and push farther south across the northern half of the region. This will result in the potential for showers from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon mainly for areas from I90 northward. As the sfc low and trough continues east and crosses into Quebec, the trailing cold front will cross the forecast area, increasing the potential for showers for the entire area on Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Showers will taper off from northwest to southeast through the morning on Tuesday. So if I’m reading this right (I’m probably not), it will stay clear in the Afternoon Monday in orchard park and then there’s a chance Of rain Monday night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clayboy54 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Heavy snow with high winds and a chance of blizzard conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awwufelloff Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Bills!Win! said: So if I’m reading this right (I’m probably not), it will stay clear in the Afternoon Monday in orchard park and then there’s a chance Of rain Monday night Yeah it looks to stay north of Orchard Park as of right now, but still very close call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 So as we have become accustomed to, it will be nice in the days leading up to the game. A good chance of crap weather for the tailgate and game. Then nice weather for a few days after the game. Got it. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realist Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Crap, was hoping not to have to pack my rain gear to go up there. Seems like it rains every time I come up for a game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, zow2 said: So as we have become accustomed to, it will be nice in the days leading up to the game. A good chance of crap weather for the tailgate and game. Then nice weather for a few days after the game. Got it. still 4 and a half days to go; that’s basically an eternity when it comes to weather in Western NY. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Looking more and more like potential TStorms. Could be some weather delays. Supposed to be a wet 24 hours leading up to the game with rain starting Sunday night and continuing through Monday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 12 hours ago, Awwufelloff said: Yeah it looks to stay north of Orchard Park as of right now, but still very close call. Stay North! Stay North!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 13 hours ago, clayboy54 said: Heavy snow with high winds and a chance of blizzard conditions. Along with temps in the 90's and hot and humid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 17 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Looking more and more like potential TStorms. Could be some weather delays. Supposed to be a wet 24 hours leading up to the game with rain starting Sunday night and continuing through Monday night. How often do forecasted Storms actually hit us? Ah yes....only for Bills games!!! 😡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 10 hours ago, Realist said: Crap, was hoping not to have to pack my rain gear to go up there. Seems like it rains every time I come up for a game. Then I think we have identified the cause. 🙂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills!Win! Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 The 3 reports I’m looking at say thunderstorms in the morning, sunny in the afternoon then rain from 7-9pm. As long as the thunderstorms stay away at night and it’s not a heavy rain I just want football!! I’m coming from out of town and want no part of a delay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awwufelloff Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 56 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said: The 3 reports I’m looking at say thunderstorms in the morning, sunny in the afternoon then rain from 7-9pm. As long as the thunderstorms stay away at night and it’s not a heavy rain I just want football!! I’m coming from out of town and want no part of a delay Yep Buffalo NWS introduced 60% chance of rain. It should be scattered so I would be shocked if it rained they entire day/game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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