Are we overplaying this team's chances had we won?

[Success]

The idea that we would have breezed to a Lombardi seems to be a popular one on the board, and I admit that it's how I have felt.

 

But we were a one-man team all year, for good and bad.  Even in our good wins, it was almost all Allen.  Singletary was starting to click, but all that did was give us a competent run game - nothing above average.  Our D was ranked #1, but I think we'd all agree that was kind of a mirage.  Personally, I think the Bengals and Rams have more impactful defenses, though they are both ranked much lower.   The Rams in particular have a fierce pass rush - which we do not have and haven't really had all season.

 

Allen's already a legend at this point, but it's hard to remember too many teams that won it all w/ so much of their success attributable to one player.  Even in Brady's runs, there were games that the D & special teams made the plays for the win.

 

We were clicking on all cylinders over the last month+ for sure, but the most impressive wins were over Carolina and New England (both times) - and I think the Pats were wildly overrated because of that 7-game win streak, which was their mirage.  Prior to that, we couldn't figure this team out.

 

The Bucs had one of the best pass rushes in the league & had a hard time getting to Stafford.  It's possible that a SB match-up with the Rams would have really exposed our weaknesses.

 

I tend to rationalize losses, but maybe we'll look back on this as a necessary step. We need to get this team's Bruce Smith & shore up a few other areas.  And when we finally do get back, there will be no doubt.

 

[harryS]

Cincy would've been a 51-3 repeat.

 

Super Bowl vs the Rams would be a toss-up.  If it were the 49ers, we'd be the heavy favorites.

 

You're right but we shouldn't underplay it either.  This was our best shot at a SB in forever and the coaches blew it.

[Patrick Duffy]

I don't think so. If we had gotten past KC, imo Bills would have had about the best chance to win a championship since wide right.

[Brand J]

Rams would’ve been tough in the SB given their DL and playmakers on the backend, but I do think the Bills would’ve been favored. If “great” Matt Stafford shows up the last 2 games I think they’ll win it all. 

[FilthyBeast]

If the Chiefs go on to win a championship then it's easy to assume the Bills would have done the same.

 

This is why in some ways I'm hoping the Chiefs season ends Sunday against the Bengals or in the SB because if anything it will lesson the blow of one of the worst choke jobs in all pro sports.

 

And as crazy as it sounds, this very well may have been the Chiefs SB against the Bills. Bengals are certainly capable of beating them and already have in the regular season just like the Bills.

[SCBills]

We'd destroy the Bengals, and then (assuming Rams) we would be the SB favorites.  

 

Rams "can" beat both the Bills and Chiefs (Niners cannot), but two things:

 

1)  Stafford doesn't have Mahomes mobility.  We would be able to get to him a few times.  

 

2)  As good as Kupp/Beckham/Jefferson are, they aren't track stars, and Higbee isn't Kelce.  

 

Our Offense would score on them, and while our defense would have some struggles, they would look much more competent against the Rams.  

[Buffalo Boy]

The Rams D is a legit concern. 
 

[Success]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

We'd destroy the Bengals, and then (assuming Rams) we would be the SB favorites.  

 

Rams "can" beat both the Bills and Chiefs (Niners cannot), but two things:

 

1)  Stafford doesn't have Mahomes mobility.  We would be able to get to him a few times.  

 

2)  As good as Kupp/Beckham/Jefferson are, they aren't track stars, and Higbee isn't Kelce.  

 

Our Offense would score on them, and while our defense would have some struggles, they would look much more competent against the Rams.  

 

I agree w/ most of this - but destroying the Bengals?  I think we're really selling that team short.  A lot of fans are saying that, but Cincy is an excellent team. They just beat KC a few weeks ago.

 

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Success said:

 

I agree w/ most of this - but destroying the Bengals?  I think we're really selling that team short.  A lot of fans are saying that, but Cincy is an excellent team. They just beat KC a few weeks ago.

 

 

I think they played over their heads that day, had home crowd energy to fuel a comeback and KC got up big and could never regain their edge once they let up a bit.  

 

They're defense is really pedestrian outside Hendrickson and Bates.  On Offense, they have the weaponry of the Bills, a QB a notch below Allen and the OL of us mid-season.  

 

I just don't see a dialed in Bills/Chiefs not making easy work of them at home.  It's basically Chiefs vs Bills minus the threat of a QB run game and with the OL we trotted out in Jacksonville. 

[gonzo1105]

I think we would have beaten Cinci, even though another high explosive team, I have to think with their lack of big game experience on the road in a hostile environment we'd win. If we faced the 49ers, I think it would be close but I think we would win. The Rams, I would think would be another barn burner type game for the SB that could go either way but we dont have to worry about it now. 

[BuffaloRebound]

I think we would’ve been the 7 point favorites over Cincy at home like KC.  Then 7 point favorites over SF or 3 point favorites over Rams.  There’s never an easy road to a Super Bowl, but we would’ve been the favorites to win it all among the 4 teams no doubt.  

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

In 2020…it took a whole 30 minutes before McVay figured out Fraizer/McDermott defnese and poured on 29 points in the 2nd Half.

 

With Akers back giving RAMS a deadly balance of run AND pass that would force Bills defenders to think and not just react…Cupp playing at MVP level and Stafford now pulling trigger…

 

no doubt RAMS would have opportunity to roll up 35-45 points on Bills Defense.

 

it would have taken another Hero Game from Allen and the O-Line Not caving under the pressure of Darnold and Miller.

 

I probably would have taken the Rams to win at home

 

Bills - 27

Rams - 41

 

 

Edited January 26, 2022 by RalphWilson'sNewWar

[Nextmanup]

The majority here are, but they always are overestimating the Bills chances.

 

Some of us have kept it realistic.

I think we would have beaten the Bengals easily, would probably beat the 49ers but you never know, and the Rams game would be a total toss-up.  Could go either way and play out in any way for either team IMO.

 

 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Favored significantly vs Bengals.

 

Coin toss (too soon?) vs Rams. 
 

Either way we would have shown we can go toe-to-toe with and beat the Chiefs, so there would be a good chance we could win our next 2. Allen would likely be seen as the best remaining QB. 
 

I’m not sure any rational fan would think winning the AFCCG & SB is a breeze. Especially for a team that lost to the Jags. 

[ToGoGo]

It might seem insane to say in January 2022, but it may have been a long-term blessing in disguise. If we would have won the SB this year, we may have rested on our laurels.

 

NOW? Allen's about to go crazy in the off-season again. Coming off a legendary performance. He could make another step as QB, perhaps a higher level than what anyone has seen before. And Beane and McDermott are about to take serious looks in the mirror and realize they also need to level up. 

 

This loss may have meant the difference between one and done SB, and future dynasty.

[Success]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think we would’ve been the 7 point favorites over Cincy at home like KC.  Then 7 point favorites over SF or 3 point favorites over Rams.  There’s never an easy road to a Super Bowl, but we would’ve been the favorites to win it all among the 4 teams no doubt.  

 

Why would we have been faves over the Rams? They only have 5 losses.

 

[SWATeam]

No.

 

Can you imagine a future scenario where all that's in the way of hoisting the Lombardi is a Home game as a 7+ point favorite and then a matchup with either Jimmy G or Stafford?

Edited January 26, 2022 by SWATeam

[uticaclub]

Most likely, Cinny has weapons on offense we wouldnt have answers for. Burrow is better than any QB we played this year, other than Mahomes week 5. 

Edited January 26, 2022 by uticaclub

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Rams would have been tough but the Bills have more weapons on offense. All Daboll would need to do is keep Singletary or Moss in to help block Donald.  Dawkins can handle Miller most of the time 1:1.  Dawkins was playing an an all-time level down the stretch. Best he has looked in three years after coming back from COVID.  Rams are not nearly as dynamic as KC.  Bills pass rush probably gets Stafford on the ground unlike letting Mahommes get free. 

[BuffaloRebound]

4 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Why would we have been faves over the Rams? They only have 5 losses.

 

Allen vs. Stafford.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

5 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

It might seem insane to say in January 2022, but it may have been a long-term blessing in disguise. If we would have won the SB this year, we may have rested on our laurels.

 

NOW? Allen's about to go crazy in the off-season again. Coming off a legendary performance. He could make another step as QB, perhaps a higher level than what anyone has seen before. And Beane and McDermott are about to take serious looks in the mirror and realize they also need to level up. 

 

This loss may have meant the difference between one and done SB, and future dynasty.

Yes after an amazing year, no doubt it wil be easy to make multiple SuperBowls in the future.   Dan Marino

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

Allen vs. Stafford.  

Yeah I think Bills would have been favored also, but not by much....no more than 3  would be my guess

[taglientep]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Rams would have been tough but the Bills have more weapons on offense. All Daboll would need to do is keep Singletary or Moss in to help block Donald.  Dawkins can handle Miller most of the time 1:1.  Dawkins was playing an an all-time level down the stretch. Best he has looked in three years after coming back from COVID.  Rams are not nearly as dynamic as KC.  Bills pass rush probably gets Stafford on the ground unlike letting Mahommes get free. 

wonder if  the rams would keep flipping Miller to different sides and or put donald out on the edge too 

[zow2]

I think the Bills...and probably the Chiefs this week would have an emotional letdown against Cincinnati.  Not saying they'd lose, but it wouldn't surprise me if Cinci jumps out to a quick 7-0 or 10-0 lead this week.  KC is so dangerous when they ramp up the urgency, I think they ultimately win..

[Stank_Nasty]

The recipe almost every single year is peaking at the right time, having some things break your way(rodgers and brady going down while bengals beat titans for a home title game), and riding out a QB on a absolute heater to the Lombardi. That was literally all in motion for this squad. No we ARE NOT overplaying or chances of winning the whole dang thing if we take care of those 13 seconds.

 

"breezed" to it is a bit strong. But we would have been the clear cut favorite coming out of Arrowhead.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Stank_Nasty

[Ramza86]

Prolly would have been a good shot. Idk over 50%?

 

No KC already beat and Green Bay eliminated. Rams would be tough.

[78thealltimegreat]

This team would be planning the parade right now… I am pulling like crazy for Joe and the Cincy kids but the reality is that was the two best teams in football playing in Arrowhead on Sunday 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

17 minutes ago, taglientep said:

wonder if  the rams would keep flipping Miller to different sides and or put donald out on the edge too 

Agree. Attacking Brown would have been the gameplan.  He was the weakest link in pass protection but Allen would have seen it coming

[msw2112]

52 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

If the Chiefs go on to win a championship then it's easy to assume the Bills would have done the same.

 

This is why in some ways I'm hoping the Chiefs season ends Sunday against the Bengals or in the SB because if anything it will lesson the blow of one of the worst choke jobs in all pro sports.

 

And as crazy as it sounds, this very well may have been the Chiefs SB against the Bills. Bengals are certainly capable of beating them and already have in the regular season just like the Bills.

 

Another way to look at it is this - if the Chiefs win it all, the Bills will see that team that they a) beat at KC earlier this year; and b) went toe-to-toe with last week at KC and should have beaten but for horrendus special teams and defensive schemes in the last 13 seconds - in other words a team they are as good as - was able to win it all.  That might give them confidence that they are good enough to win it all and help them focus on getting home field advantage for a run next year.  Perhaps fewer regular season let-downs would result.

 

Keep in mind that last year, the Chiefs beat the Bills handily twice - once in Buffalo (score was close, but Chiefs controlled the whole game) and in the AFCCG, where the Chiefs spotted the Bills 2 scores and still blew them out.  The Bills have clearly narrowed/closed the gap and are as good as the best.  Year 1 - KC clearly better; Year 2 - narrow/close the gap, draw even; Year 3 - surpass.  It may not play out this way, but it certainly could.

 

If KC flops, the Bills will have lost to a team that wasn't the best.

 

My prediction is that the Chiefs beat Cincy.  Cincy will scrap and stay in the game for a while, but KC will pull away.  The Rams will beat SF and get to the SB.  Rams-Chiefs will be a very close battle.  Rams D is fierce and with Stafford, Kupp, OBJ, etc. they are dangerous enough on offense to put up points.  Stafford is not as elusive as Mahomes and more likely to turn the ball over, so KC wins a close game.

[Success]

31 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Yes after an amazing year, no doubt it wil be easy to make multiple SuperBowls in the future.   Dan Marino

 

I've heard this a few times - it's a valuable historical example, but I reject it.  

 

The Dolphins were terrible at building a balanced team around Marino. They kept doing the Lions thing of getting receivers and ignoring other key areas.  And the game passed Shula by.

 

Plus, they couldn't deal w/ the Bills. We don't have that kind of divisional obstacle.

 

[Greg S]

If the Bills had beaten the Chiefs I would say they most likely get to the Super Bowl. I think they would have beaten the Bengals in a high scoring game at home. Good chance they would beat SF in the Super Bowl but LA would be a toss up. I could see the Bills losing to the Rams in the Super Bowl. Unfortunately we will never get the chance to see how it would have played out.

[May Day 10]

I wouldnt discount Cincy, especially after that roller coaster emotional game.  Higgins and Chase make me a bit nervous with Tre White not available.  I would feel really good about the Bills beating Cincinnati at home overall, perhaps 80% confident in a win.

 

 

Going into the playoffs, the Rams were actually the team that 'scared' me the most other than Kansas City.   Their offense has the ability to light it up and they have a star-studded defense.  

[Niagara Dude]

1 hour ago, Success said:

The idea that we would have breezed to a Lombardi seems to be a popular one on the board, and I admit that it's how I have felt.

 

But we were a one-man team all year, for good and bad.  Even in our good wins, it was almost all Allen.  Singletary was starting to click, but all that did was give us a competent run game - nothing above average.  Our D was ranked #1, but I think we'd all agree that was kind of a mirage.  Personally, I think the Bengals and Rams have more impactful defenses, though they are both ranked much lower.   The Rams in particular have a fierce pass rush - which we do not have and haven't really had all season.

 

Allen's already a legend at this point, but it's hard to remember too many teams that won it all w/ so much of their success attributable to one player.  Even in Brady's runs, there were games that the D & special teams made the plays for the win.

 

We were clicking on all cylinders over the last month+ for sure, but the most impressive wins were over Carolina and New England (both times) - and I think the Pats were wildly overrated because of that 7-game win streak, which was their mirage.  Prior to that, we couldn't figure this team out.

 

The Bucs had one of the best pass rushes in the league & had a hard time getting to Stafford.  It's possible that a SB match-up with the Rams would have really exposed our weaknesses.

 

I tend to rationalize losses, but maybe we'll look back on this as a necessary step. We need to get this team's Bruce Smith & shore up a few other areas.  And when we finally do get back, there will be no doubt.

 

no

[WNYFAN1]

50 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

It might seem insane to say in January 2022, but it may have been a long-term blessing in disguise. If we would have won the SB this year, we may have rested on our laurels.

 

NOW? Allen's about to go crazy in the off-season again. Coming off a legendary performance. He could make another step as QB, perhaps a higher level than what anyone has seen before. And Beane and McDermott are about to take serious looks in the mirror and realize they also need to level up. 

 

This loss may have meant the difference between one and done SB, and future dynasty.

So he did make a massive improvement over these two postseason games relative to last season, but the regular season was a statistical step back
 

2020 - 4,544 yrds, 7.9avg, 69.2% completion, 37 td, 10 int, 76.6 QBR, 107.2 RT

 

2021- 4,407 yrds, 6.8avg, 63.3% completion, 36 td, 15 int, 60.6 QBR, 92.2 RT

 

Still great numbers, but it's definitely a regression relative to the 2020 regular season.

 

[ProcessTruster]

1 hour ago, harryS said:

Cincy would've been a 51-3 repeat.

 

Super Bowl vs the Rams would be a toss-up.  If it were the 49ers, we'd be the heavy favorites.

 

You're right but we shouldn't underplay it either.  This was our best shot at a SB in forever and the coaches blew it.

Yep.  having the best cover squad in the league, how they did not call and/or execute the pooch kickoff to the 5 yard line to run 6-7 secs off the clock is beyond comprehension, yes.  they did it all year with great success.  Situational football failure, we just don't know which coach pooped the bed on that one.  Its gonna come out eventually, the media will go to Bass and ask him point blank.  

 

Hate to say it, but the whole 13 second thing was so "Billsy".  thought we were done with that term, but I guess not.  On the bright side, progress is not linear and I can see this roster getting into the same position again next year, which is really something to look forward to. 

Edited January 26, 2022 by ProcessTruster

[Success]

3 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

I wouldnt discount Cincy, especially after that roller coaster emotional game.  Higgins and Chase make me a bit nervous with Tre White not available.  I would feel really good about the Bills beating Cincinnati at home overall, perhaps 80% confident in a win.

 

 

Going into the playoffs, the Rams were actually the team that 'scared' me the most other than Kansas City.   Their offense has the ability to light it up and they have a star-studded defense.  

 

I keep thinking about that defense. I'm old school, so an adherent to the "defense wins championships" wisdom.  I know there are exceptions, but that is a pretty solid rule.

 

They have a great pass rush. We don't.

 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, harryS said:

Cincy would've been a 51-3 repeat.

 

Super Bowl vs the Rams would be a toss-up.  If it were the 49ers, we'd be the heavy favorites.

 

You're right but we shouldn't underplay it either.  This was our best shot at a SB in forever and the coaches blew it.

 

The Rams have not beat Shanahan under McVay, they are 0-6 versus them.  That was the LAST team they wanted to see in the NFCCG.  Will likely be a 49ers - Chiefs game and 49ers will get manhandled.

1 hour ago, Success said:

The idea that we would have breezed to a Lombardi seems to be a popular one on the board, and I admit that it's how I have felt.

 

But we were a one-man team all year, for good and bad.  Even in our good wins, it was almost all Allen.  Singletary was starting to click, but all that did was give us a competent run game - nothing above average.  Our D was ranked #1, but I think we'd all agree that was kind of a mirage.  Personally, I think the Bengals and Rams have more impactful defenses, though they are both ranked much lower.   The Rams in particular have a fierce pass rush - which we do not have and haven't really had all season.

 

Allen's already a legend at this point, but it's hard to remember too many teams that won it all w/ so much of their success attributable to one player.  Even in Brady's runs, there were games that the D & special teams made the plays for the win.

 

We were clicking on all cylinders over the last month+ for sure, but the most impressive wins were over Carolina and New England (both times) - and I think the Pats were wildly overrated because of that 7-game win streak, which was their mirage.  Prior to that, we couldn't figure this team out.

 

The Bucs had one of the best pass rushes in the league & had a hard time getting to Stafford.  It's possible that a SB match-up with the Rams would have really exposed our weaknesses.

 

I tend to rationalize losses, but maybe we'll look back on this as a necessary step. We need to get this team's Bruce Smith & shore up a few other areas.  And when we finally do get back, there will be no doubt.

 

 

No...the Bills are simply better than Cincy at this point.  Would have been a similar game to us versus KC last year...sort of competitive but not really.

[LABILLBACKER]

Does anyone on this board think Jim Kelly is better than Josh Allen? JA17 is a generational qb who just played 2 of the most perfect and amazing games in Bills history. And he did it without 6 HOF players. So to answer the OP's question,  NO.

Edited January 26, 2022 by LABILLBACKER

[boater]

KC v. Bills was the Superbowl. We're not over confident, we're realists. Those NFC teams don't scare me.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said:

The Rams D is a legit concern. 
 

Until KC drops 30+ on them.