Josh Allen home/road splits

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

On Locked On Bills today (start at 3:55 mark), Joe Marino shared Allen's road and home splits both for this year and his career overall. The differences are stark.

 

2021:

Home: 60.8%, 6.22 YPA, 85.8 rating

Road: 66.1%, 7.61 YPA, 99.4 rating

 

Career:

Home: 60.09%, 6.69 YPA, 86.2 rating

Road: 64.61%, 7.47 YPA, 95.6 rating

 

Marino concludes that Allen has been a better road quarterback than home quarterback and there appears to be something to this phenomenon.

 

I continue to believe that Allen and the Bills are best suited to playing on the road in the playoffs. If they can get through that first home game, I'd rather see them on the road in future rounds.

[No_Matter_What]

There is definitely something to it.

 

But so far Allen has played 4 games in playoffs. Won both home games and lost both road games. So there is that.

[teef]

i'm just taking the philosophy that if the bills are the better team, they should beat the team across from them, no matter where it's played.  

 

i get the road vs home debate, but i just think some are putting too much stock into it.

Edited January 4, 2022 by teef

[DJB]

10 minutes ago, teef said:

i'm just taking the philosophy that if the bills are the better team, they should beat the team across from them, no matter where it's played.  

 

i get the road vs home debate, but i just think some are putting too much stock into it.

 

We also know that Josh talks about getting too jacked up and perhaps he is at home games and calmer on the road. 

[teef]

1 minute ago, DJB said:

 

We also know that Josh talks about getting too jacked up and perhaps he is at home games and calmer on the road. 

there's definitely an element to that, which is what i think the OP is ultimately trying to get at.  i'm not going to get too into it, but i have a feeling there's more to the story than just the stats posted.  

 

look at our three home losses this year.  who knows what happened in the opener against pit.  the other two were against the colts and the pats, which had some of the worst weather possible.  i have to imagine that comes into play too.  the home lost last year was against the chiefs, who aren't too shabby.  concerning the allen years before that, he was a raw young qb, and this team wasn't very good.  give it a few more years, and i don' think those numbers mean as much as some want them to right now.

[dave mcbride]

23 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

On Locked On Bills today (start at 3:55 mark), Joe Marino shared Allen's road and home splits both for this year and his career overall. The differences are stark.

 

2021:

Home: 60.8%, 6.22 YPA, 85.8 rating

Road: 66.1%, 7.61 YPA, 99.4 rating

 

Career:

Home: 60.09%, 6.69 YPA, 86.2 rating

Road: 64.61%, 7.47 YPA, 95.6 rating

 

Marino concludes that Allen has been a better road quarterback than home quarterback and there appears to be something to this phenomenon.

 

I continue to believe that Allen and the Bills are best suited to playing on the road in the playoffs. If they can get through that first home game, I'd rather see them on the road in future rounds.

How are the opponents' home/road splits when it comes to playing in Orchard Park? The differential is what matters, not Allen's numbers without surrounding context.

[JESSEFEFFER]

The worst weather games the Bills play in have almost always been home.  Imo, the differential is almost totally due to weather effects on the passing game but mostly isolated to just a few games where QB numbers were pretty bad on both sides.  The Bills passing D is great but if it weren't for bad weather home games I doubt they would be the #1 pass defense since 2017 when Sean took over.  The 2019 games vs. Philadelphia and Baltimore,  2020 vs. NE and LAC and most every game this season have been wind affected, even the Steelers game.  There are some throws that are just much tougher to complete and are almost not worth attempting.  That over throw of wide open Diggs vs. the Steelers in week 1 was into the wind which was 16-20 mph.  Josh probably just put too much on it and overcompensated.  Even if Josh puts the ball where it needs to be, the ball is tougher to track and catch as it will tend move in unpredictable ways as evidence by the ball that hit Diggs in the elbow vs. the Pats.

 

I do not think Josh and/or Daboll have had smart high wind game plans.  Over the years I have seen Phil Rivers (2013) and Carson Wentz be very effective with shallow crossing rub routes going for big YAC and screens plus QB scrambles to convert 3rd downs, respectively.  It looks like the Bills try to run their normal offense and hope Josh can still make enough plays.  Josh not taking any velocity off his short, over the middle throws in 26F weather is one example of what I mean.  There are adjustments to playing in bad weather and I don't think Bills have been good at making them.

[Logic]

I think the weather is a part of it, but I also think a big factor is Josh's mindset.

Calm Josh Allen is elite. Hyper Josh Allen is two-turnover Josh Allen.

On the road, he seems to get into a mental zone where he usually stays calm and collected. Maybe it's due to the crowd noise on the road, the collective effort it takes to thrive as an offense in adverse conditions, whatever. I'm not sure.

At home, he seems to get a bit too hyped up, and suddenly his throws are a little bit off and his decision making can suffer. Maybe it's the excitement of playing in front of a home crowd, maybe it's trying to live up the massive expectations that home fans have for him. I'm not sure.

All I know is that it seems irrefutable at this point: Josh, by and large, plays better on the road than at home.

[Joe Ferguson]

I hope Bills lose to the Jets. I'm worried sick how the Bills play at home. Josh Allen and the team are absolute dog turds when they play at home.

But will be great when they're on the road. Bills are road warriors.

Rooting for #6 or #7 seed for the Bills!

[BuffaninSarasota]

1 minute ago, Joe Ferguson said:

I hope Bills lose to the Jets. I'm worried sick how the Bills play at home. Josh Allen and the team are absolute dog turds when they play at home.

But will be great when they're on the road. Bills are road warriors.

Rooting for #6 or #7 seed for the Bills!

 

um .... no

[Logic]

Just now, Joe Ferguson said:

I hope Bills lose to the Jets. I'm worried sick how the Bills play at home. Josh Allen and the team are absolute dog turds when they play at home.

But will be great when they're on the road. Bills are road warriors.

Rooting for #6 or #7 seed for the Bills!

The thought of actively rooting for the Patriots to win the AFC East instead of the Bills makes me ill.

I get it. You're thinking that how they perform in the playoffs is all that matters. Still, there's no way I'm rooting for the freakin PATS to win the division.

Besides, McDermott is 2-0 in home playoff games but 0-3 in road playoff games.

[WotAGuy]

If he plays great on the road, I’m all for that!

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Logic said:

The thought of actively rooting for the Patriots to win the AFC East instead of the Bills makes me ill.

I get it. You're thinking that how they perform in the playoffs is all that matters. Still, there's no way I'm rooting for the freakin PATS to win the division.

Besides, McDermott is 2-0 in home playoff games but 0-3 in road playoff games.

 

I don't get it. Fans actively rooting against their team to have home playoff games? Nope, don't get it....

[Nextmanup]

I've commented on this all over the place.

Josh has a problem dealing with stress/pressure and as far as I know, still vomits before every game.

 

He puts an enormous amount of pressure on himself particularly at home, to please the fans.  He just wants to excel but it can become crippling.  

 

It's a documented phenomenon in other sports like hockey.

 

Some teams just play better, smarter, more disciplined hockey on the road, where there is less pressure to please the home crowd.

 

[billsfan1959]

5 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Career:

Home: 60.09%, 6.69 YPA, 86.2 rating

Road: 64.61%, 7.47 YPA, 95.6 rating

 

You forgot to add:

 

Career Reg Season

Home: 20-10

Road:  18-12

 

Career Playoffs

Home: 2-0

Road:  0-2

[FilthyBeast]

This team hasn't been dominant at home for years except for last year going 9-1 combined during regular season/playoffs.

 

But in regards to Allen, this is another argument against him if you want to nitpick his contract and/or whether or not he truly belongs in the discussion among the leagues best.

 

Even the Bradys and Rogers of the world don't go 8-0 at home every year but definitely need to see more 6-2 or 7-1 type of records at home consistently going forward or we have no real home field advantage.

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I've commented on this all over the place.

Josh has a problem dealing with stress/pressure and as far as I know, still vomits before every game.

 

He puts an enormous amount of pressure on himself particularly at home, to please the fans.  He just wants to excel but it can become crippling. 

 

 

First bolded: Many athletes exhibit anxiety/stress before a game, match, etc. It in no way means it affects their play once the game, match, etc, begins. And I'm sure whatever anxiety / stress Allen feels before a game, it is the same whether at home or on the road.

 

Second bolded: Pure speculation on your part. If I were to venture a guess, I would say, during the game, Allen is far more concerned with what happening on the field rather than what fans might be thinking.

[teef]

7 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

This team hasn't been dominant at home for years except for last year going 9-1 combined during regular season/playoffs.

 

But in regards to Allen, this is another argument against him if you want to nitpick his contract and/or whether or not he truly belongs in the discussion among the leagues best.

 

Even the Bradys and Rogers of the world don't go 8-0 at home every year but definitely need to see more 6-2 or 7-1 type of records at home consistently going forward or we have no real home field advantage.

no one is nitpicking his contract except for you.  you made the comment that if the bills had signed him this year, they would have paid him less based on production.  that didn't cross a single person's mind except yours.  mostly because it's insane.  

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

First bolded: Many athletes exhibit anxiety/stress before a game, match, etc. It in no way means it affects their play once the game, match, etc, begins. And I'm sure whatever anxiety / stress Allen feels before a game, it is the same whether at home or on the road.

 

Second bolded: Pure speculation on your part. If I were to venture a guess, I would say, during the game, Allen is far more concerned with what happening on the field rather than what fans might be thinking.

today is full of hot takes, mostly by the same 3-4 posters.  magic.

[dave mcbride]

18 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

You forgot to add:

 

Career Reg Season

Home: 20-10

Road:  18-12

 

Career Playoffs

Home: 2-0

Road:  0-2

One of those home losses was to the Jets at the end of 2019 season, where Allen played three plays. If that game had mattered, they would have destroyed the Jets.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

One of those home losses was to the Jets at the end of 2019 season, where Allen played three plays. If that game had mattered, they would have destroyed the Jets.

 

Absolutely.

 

In addition, it feels like some posters have this idea that, somehow, when it is a bad weather game, it only affects Allen, not the opposing QB, or, apparently, anybody else on the field...

[Big Blitz]

32 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

This team hasn't been dominant at home for years except for last year going 9-1 combined during regular season/playoffs.

 

There were no fans in the stands - which should add to the "home field doesn't matter" argument.  

 

And probably should have us strongly considering maybe it isn't pressing in front of home fans so much as yes, maybe it is the weather/wind in that stadium - what else explains his 2020 road stats vs home - while not significant, still a bit of a dip. 

 

The KC game was miserable - the Chiefs won that game by running for over 200 yards

 

In 2019, we played an elite New England Defense, and the Philly game was in pretty windy miserable conditions.  I'm not looking up the other 6 games. 

 

32 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

But in regards to Allen, this is another argument against him if you want to nitpick his contract and/or whether or not he truly belongs in the discussion among the leagues best.

 

No.  Just no.  He's one of the 3 best QBs in the league.  I personally wouldn't want anyone else. 

 

32 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Even the Bradys and Rogers of the world don't go 8-0 at home every year but definitely need to see more 6-2 or 7-1 type of records at home consistently going forward or we have no real home field advantage.

 

Brady and Rodgers win everywhere.  

Edited January 4, 2022 by Big Blitz

[billybrew1]

6 hours ago, teef said:

i'm just taking the philosophy that if the bills are the better team, they should beat the team across from them, no matter where it's played.  

 

i get the road vs home debate, but i just think some are putting too much stock into it.

But teams are really close sometimes and we're more or less built to win by passing the football and the winds at the Ralph put a wrench in the works.

[RochesterLifer]

6 hours ago, DJB said:

 

We also know that Josh talks about getting too jacked up and perhaps he is at home games and calmer on the road. 

Bourbon, it cures what ails 'ya.

[Big Blitz]

In 7 warm/hot weather games in 2020 he threw for just under 2300 yards.  And completed 70% of his passes.

 

That's almost a 5000 yard passing season pace 

 

In 2 "cold" weather games he threw for 462 yards and completed 61.8% of his passes.  

 

 

In 2021, in 7 warm/hot weather games, he threw for just over 2000 yards.  Completed around 65% of his passes.  

 

In 4 cold weather games, 789 yards and completed 54% of his passes.  

 

 

 

Worth noting....

 

Mahomes in 2020 - at home completed 63% of his passes for 2100 yards.  

 

On the road he completed 68% of his passes and threw for just under 2600 yards.  

 

In 8 home games last year Brady completed 62% of his passes and threw for 2100 yards.  

 

8 road games he threw for over 2500 yards and completed just under 70% of his passes.   

 

 

 

Take from all this whatever you will.  Just trying to provide some context and find a few comps.  

[harryS]

6 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

But so far Allen has played 4 games in playoffs. Won both home games and lost both road games. So there is that.

 

Right.  Even if Josh is better on the road than at home, if his teammates are better at home than on the road, and the opposing team is better at home than on the road (both typically true), then it's still better to be at home.

[34-78-83]

Its Orchard Park. Dave McBride has this whole thread covered. There are worse conditions for BOTH QB's (Bills AND their opponent) at every Bills home game as compared to just about every other venue. the stats of both the Bills QB's AND their opponents are going to always be worse in Buf than elsewhere especially in a year like we've had in 2021 with all the wind, snow and rain at literally every game.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

Second bolded: Pure speculation on your part. If I were to venture a guess, I would say, during the game, Allen is far more concerned with what happening on the field rather than what fans might be thinking.

This is actually not pure speculation. Josh has talked about getting too amped up.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Good QBs are worse in poor weather conditions.

[Dr.Sack]

I care more about Wins & Losses. As long as we win at home the stats don’t mean much. Allen is winning at home at a better clip then on the road. 

[teef]

1 hour ago, billybrew1 said:

But teams are really close sometimes and we're more or less built to win by passing the football and the winds at the Ralph put a wrench in the works.

the craziness of the weather this year isn't typical, (i'm going by memory, so i could be wrong).  i don't go to nearly as many games as i once did, but the colts game this year is one of of the wettest garbage games i've ever sat through.   i have to imagine the pats game was worse.  as long as we don't get mega high winds, or hard core rain, i don't think it's too much of an issue.

[auburnbillsbacker]

Is it due to the weather?

[billsfan1959]

30 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

This is actually not pure speculation. Josh has talked about getting too amped up.

 

Right, he has talked about getting amped up. He has also said it might have affected him on the first couple of plays. That is different from what I was responding to.

[transplantbillsfan]

I started a thread about this back in 2019

 

Yes I realize we've lost both of our road playoff games, but the point even back in 2019 was that you could just see that Allen generally plays better on the road for some reason.

 

Back in 2019 alone in examining road vs home:

 

Allen at home: 54.9% completion percentage, 5.9 YPA, 9 TDs, 5 INTs, 76.9 Passer Rating

 

Allen on the road: 62.1% completion percentage, 7.4 YPA, 11 TDs, 4 INTs, 92.6 Passer Rating 

 

 

 

Josh Allen vs top 10 defenses at home: 46.2% completion percentage, 4.5 YPA, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 0 4th Quarter comebacks, 56.8 Passer Rating 

 

Josh Allen vs top 10 defenses on the road: 61.6% completion percentage, 7.4 YPA, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 24th quarter comebacks, 88 Passer Rating 

 

 

4-4 at home

 

6-2 on the road

 

 

More 4th quarter comebacks on the road than at home.

 

2 primetime games both on the road. Both wins with Allen showing up on the big stage.

 

 

We can only speculate, but I think Allen just thrives off adversity.  He loves when everyone is against him (road) and is still trying to get used to everyone being behind him (home).  I think he'll get used to it, though.  He was better at home in college by a lot.  Bigger stage in the NFL by a ton, obviously.

 

This year it's pretty clear weather's really played a role.

[Paulus]

It's harder to play QB in the bad weather of Buffalo. 

 

I'm sure that is a contributing factor. This year seemed to really exemplify that. The Pats game was a huge recent example. There are plenty of others, should one look. 

 

It's almost like horses run slower in the slop.

 

 

The good that comes of this is that Josh should continue to get better in the slop, which should magnify itself to the comparatively fast conditions of away games. 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by Paulus

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, 34-78-83 said:

Its Orchard Park. Dave McBride has this whole thread covered. There are worse conditions for BOTH QB's (Bills AND their opponent) at every Bills home game as compared to just about every other venue. the stats of both the Bills QB's AND their opponents are going to always be worse in Buf than elsewhere especially in a year like we've had in 2021 with all the wind, snow and rain at literally every game.

This 

 

not rocket surgery 

[AlfaBill]

Way too much analysis going on here. Best bet is to beat the Jests. Lock up the East. And beat the teams in front of you. All of this road vs home stuff is nonsense. At the end of the day they need to beat the teams they play where they play them. If JA is crap at home, they need to fix it or move on. You play half the season at home and potential play offs. 
I don’t believe there’s an issue outside of the crap weather (yes dome it) and game experience. 

[Scott7975]

15 hours ago, teef said:

there's definitely an element to that, which is what i think the OP is ultimately trying to get at.  i'm not going to get too into it, but i have a feeling there's more to the story than just the stats posted.  

 

look at our three home losses this year.  who knows what happened in the opener against pit.  the other two were against the colts and the pats, which had some of the worst weather possible.  i have to imagine that comes into play too.  the home lost last year was against the chiefs, who aren't too shabby.  concerning the allen years before that, he was a raw young qb, and this team wasn't very good.  give it a few more years, and i don' think those numbers mean as much as some want them to right now.

 

I think the Pitts game is explained with the simplest answer... They were not prepared for the defense they faced.  They didnt know what was coming and didnt gameplan to it.  They had no answers for it.  It took them a while to get answers for that kind of defense really.  Just like the season before it took them a while to have an answer for cover 0.

[Starr Almighty]

11 hours ago, Joe Ferguson said:

I hope Bills lose to the Jets. I'm worried sick how the Bills play at home. Josh Allen and the team are absolute dog turds when they play at home.

But will be great when they're on the road. Bills are road warriors.

Rooting for #6 or #7 seed for the Bills!

Meanwhile I've played out every scenario possible in my head on how the AFC CG ends up being played in Buffalo 

 

[Rochesterfan]

14 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

This team hasn't been dominant at home for years except for last year going 9-1 combined during regular season/playoffs.

 

But in regards to Allen, this is another argument against him if you want to nitpick his contract and/or whether or not he truly belongs in the discussion among the leagues best.

 

Even the Bradys and Rogers of the world don't go 8-0 at home every year but definitely need to see more 6-2 or 7-1 type of records at home consistently going forward or we have no real home field advantage.

 

oh look at who shows up with garbage comments 👏👏👏👏👏👏

[Wayne Cubed]

IMO, this looks a lot like looking at raw numbers and trying to come up with conclusions without any sort of context. As pointed out by a few posters and off the top of my head, Philly, Indy and NE** were all bad weather games. That represents 10% of the available home games Josh has played in. Throw in Josh's rookie season and that's another 6 games, where it was a bit of a mixed bag and Josh was a rookie QB.  Those 9 games account for 1/3 of the home games Josh has played in at home.

 

This also takes away from the fact that Josh has had some elite games played at home as well. Seattle last year springs to mind. He went 31/38 for 415 yards and 3 TDs and he rushed for a TD as well.

 

And as others have said how does Josh preform against other QBs who have played in OP?

Edited January 5, 2022 by Wayne Cubed