Josh Allen home/road splits

[HappyDays]

Joe Marino expanded on this on the latest Locked on Bills episode:

 

As he points out, despite Allen's stats being worse at home, the Bills win percentage is markedly better at home vs. on the road.

 

At home with Allen as the QB we have a 68.75% win percentage. On the road with Allen as the QB we have a 56.25% win percentage.

 

This is notable because over the last 3 seasons NFL teams on the whole have a win percentage of about 50% whether at home or on the road. Home field advantage has all but disappeared in recent years for most teams, but for us there's still a significant advantage.

 

That data is in line with what some people have theorized - Allen's stats are worse at home primarily because of Buffalo weather; since that weather tends to disrupt the other QB even more than it disrupts Allen, this leads to an overall home field advantage. Allen's rushing ability also gives us a firm advantage in bad weather compared to less mobile QBs.

 

Stats are cool. Wins are better.

 

Edited January 7, 2022 by HappyDays

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

That data is in line with what some people have theorized - Allen's stats are worse at home primarily because of Buffalo weather; since that weather tends to disrupt the other QB even more than it disrupts Allen, this leads to an overall home field advantage. Allen's rushing ability also gives us a firm advantage in bad weather compared to less mobile QBs.

 

Stats are cool. Wins are better.

 

 

This.

 

And last weeks game was a prime example. Not the best weather conditions for any QB. But Allen won the game with his legs. Had a 61 QBR. That's hard to do when his passer rating was 17. But shows just how dominant he was on the ground not just scoring two TD's but picking up key third downs. Ryan had a poor passing game as well, not as poor as Allen's, but the difference was Ryan did zilch with his legs. Actually less than zilch, he was penalized twice when he tried to use his legs. 

 

The stats posted by the OP while accurate for passing, do not show the total picture when it comes to a QB like Allen.

[Richard Noggin]

On 1/4/2022 at 4:53 PM, teef said:

the craziness of the weather this year isn't typical, (i'm going by memory, so i could be wrong).  i don't go to nearly as many games as i once did, but the colts game this year is one of of the wettest garbage games i've ever sat through.   i have to imagine the pats game was worse.  as long as we don't get mega high winds, or hard core rain, i don't think it's too much of an issue.

This point is ignored a lot this season: the bad weather for home games in 2021 essentially amounts to really bad luck. Plenty of glorious, mild weather in WNY all season, punctuated by some bizarrely isolated wet and/or windy and/or cold game days. 

 

Most seasons will have one or two notably bad weather home games. Can't catch a break this year, it seems.

[papazoid]

the weather on the road has been better

 

weather effects the passing game more than running

 

we are a pass happy team

[colin]

this is very interesting.  there are also all kinds of micro trends our team gets into and out of.

 

remember when we never ever stopped 2 point conversions, and were like the worst 3rd quarter team in the entire nfl?

 

i think our O, and in many cases our whole team, are pretty streaky and emotional.  this is reflected in how much we blow out teams in our wins, vs how bad we fall apart in games where the wheels just kinda start to fall off (tampa, altho the 2nd half was great, pittz once we stumbled in the RZ, Jax once we got dinged we the penalties, NE 1 once we got trucked a bit and couldn't run, etc).

 

i almost think we need to face indy or some other horrible match up early to build back a lot of confidence and get some mo going.  that said, i'd much rather face the raiders as a nervous fan.