How do you deep down, really feel about this defense?

[AmishRifle]

We don’t run a sexy, blitzing scheme that generates sacks and negative plays.  For the most part, we stay conservative, keep everything in front of us, and try to force teams to throw short of the sticks.  We expertly disguise and run a mix of zone coverages and sprinkle in man based on matchups.  
 

We still don’t dominate offensive lines with our front four, no matter the combination or platooned fresh legs.  I don’t trust our ability to generate pressure on a 3rd and long without calling a blitz.  I also don’t trust our tackling at times.  It annoys me when the concept works and we let the guy break a tackle and they get a first down.  
 

I think there is some merit to the observation that we are saving some things for the playoffs.  
 

Additionally, I feel like Edmunds is getting better this year.  I watched him closely at the Dolphins game yesterday and he brought the wood on a number of tackles.  

[y2zipper]

It's a defense that played Patrick Mahomes and Ben roethlisberger to roughly their season averages. A home's got 20 points and roethlisberger got 17, and those are good outcomes for a team that averages 16 points allowed. For all the talk of what happens when we play a competent quarterback, it seems to me like most of the time the defense still plays to its standard. Like every other NFL defense, they don't play as well when they overplay the run. Prime Time game against Tennessee turned into a shootout, but that was the first game where Tennessee really had the full complement of its offensive players and nobody really figured that out, other than the unfortunate injury to Derrick Henry. But again, in the six other games that were not against Tennessee they've pretty reliably given up somewhere between 0 and 20 points, and in today's NFL you should win every game where you give up that number.

 

They don't get the most sacks but sacks are useless as a metric for overall defensive performance. Experience the Mario Williams contract recently enough to understand that big money Superstar pass rushers are never worth their value and are fool's Gold. The difference making players for the bills are two safeties, white and Johnson at the cornerback positions, and Milano. I also really really like a lot of what I see from Edmunds this year but other people don't.

 

It's the best defense in the league but it's a defense that's built on very very modern concepts. They use the defensive line rotation because the role of the defensive line is to stop the run, not necessarily get sacks. The linebacking core is built to be very good in coverage, which it is, and they're built to take away big plays and give up short ones. It's less of a Ben but don't break and more of a defense that is built to stop drives instead of being built to make bigger plays like sacks and turnovers. The reason why it works so well and is sustainable is because there are other things for the defense to go off of when they don't get turnovers, which we know isn't really a sustainable metric. 

[Max Fischer]

F’in awesome

[Green Lightning]

Great QBs will carve this D up, but it will take long drives of no mistakes to do it. This D frustrates me by pressuring, but seldom getting the QB down. Like last year, they give up 3rd and long routinely. 

[YattaOkasan]

Disagree on points about his having trouble against good QBs.  No QB has had a good game against us this year (including mahomes and tannehill).  
 

I think we are designed to play TB in many ways. Everyone struggles with them from a defensive perspective but I think we would do better than most (by inviting the run).

 

I think our weakness is a really strong run first team that can be complimented with a good passing attack when the box is stacked.  Titans (before Henry was out), Browns, Ravens are teams I’m thinking of (some top offensive teams from last year). 

[Rick 'r Mortis]

Good enough to give the offense a chance. Which is all that matters.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

No doubt, our D kept us in the game for yesterday's first half.  But I'm really not sold on Frazier's ability to adjust, when we have to.   Too many 3rd and long conversions.

 

They are the 5th beet 3rd down defense in the league. 

[Saint Doug]

One thing I give them kudos for is their ability to jump back on the field. Our Offense does not grind their opponents down. We score quickly and efficiently. If not, it’s usually a 3-and-out. Either way, the D is back on the field in short order. Now, we are 3rd in time of possession, but I think this is more of a testament on how fast our D can get off the field rather than use running down the clock on the ground. 

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Great QBs will carve this D up, but it will take long drives of no mistakes to do it. This D frustrates me by pressuring, but seldom getting the QB down. Like last year, they give up 3rd and long routinely. 

 

I mean this year that just isn't true.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the comments in this thread are kind of funny.  Lower top 10?   Lead the league in yards against and points against, lead the league in takeaways, and you think there are 7, 8 or 9 better defenses?   What makes those defenses better?  Their teams have cheerleaders?

Cmon man. You must realize they have played terrible QBs and teams. Nobody is saying they are bad, but there is no way anyone can know they are elite.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the comments in this thread are kind of funny.  Lower top 10?   Lead the league in yards against and points against, lead the league in takeaways, and you think there are 7, 8 or 9 better defenses?   What makes those defenses better?  Their teams have cheerleaders?

 

In fairness to the folks arguing that, I do think defensive rankings are in some part (especially still relatively early in the season) as much an indication of strength of opponent as strength of defense. The two that came to mind immediately to me are Arizona and New Orleans who are both solidly top 10 by rankings but who have faced tougher slates are undervalued by the traditional metrics. 

 

Interestingly I checked the Football Outsiders DVOA and while they still heavily caveat their rankings with still less than half a season played, what would you know their top 3 is Buffalo #1, Arizona #2 and New Orleans #3. 

[ganesh]

5 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

So right now as it stands, the Bills are #1 in the NFL in total yards, points and turnovers (tied) on defense. 

 

Am I the only one who doesn't think they are as good as the stats show?

 

I certainly think this is a good defense but I don't feel they're elite.  Their numbers are elite but I'm not there yet with them.

 

What about yous guys?

You didn't say why "deep down" you believe they are NOT elite. 

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are the 5th beet 3rd down defense in the league. 

this !

[Eastport bills]

Oliver, White,Milano, Edmunds,Poyer,Hyde are  really good. The edge rushers are giving good effort and getting reasonable pressure. The only game the defense couldn't stop the opponent was Tenn,and that was because defending Henry required single coverage on Brown and Jones. This defensive challenge is the reason Tenn has won 5 straight. Star has provided great run defense and pressure up the middle. All told, this defense is as close to elite as any team's defense in the AFC.

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

So right now as it stands, the Bills are #1 in the NFL in total yards, points and turnovers (tied) on defense. 

 

Am I the only one who doesn't think they are as good as the stats show?

 

I certainly think this is a good defense but I don't feel they're elite.  Their numbers are elite but I'm not there yet with them.

 

What about yous guys?

 

 

Damn good. Top five. But it's still a bit early in the season.

[Matt_In_NH]

The stats show them clearly #1, agree that is probably not accurate, who you play matters.   But they are better than last years defense after the bye which was pretty darn good.  I think their success is largely based on scheme and matchups.  With a bad gameplan/matchup they can be exploited.  But all defenses fall under that same umbrella these days.

[KingBoots8]

Are they a good defense? Absolutely. 2 shutouts is impressive at this level no matter who we are playing against.

 

Are they a great defense? Most likely. When playing high level talent we almost always keep the scores low and competitive. QBs often have average at best performances against us. Rushing has been more successful however we are vastly improved compared to last year.

 

Are they an Elite defense? Not at this time. Our backfield is probably a CB2 away from being elite (although Levi I think has played well this year, we know our elite players are White, Poyer, and Hyde). Our LBs are strong but still not quite there (Milano is definitely Elite, not going to start a debate on Edmunds).

The Line and Edges are the real hang ups. Be it no-call penalties, lack of penetration, or just not hitting the QB when the opportunity presents itself is a challenge. Star showed he is valuable vs the run on the line, but I am concerned about depth. We have a plethora of Edge players who any seem to get into a rhythm because we have to scratch a few healthy players for numbers reasons. I think Groot is going to be a force but I don’t expect him to come into his rookie year as that level of a player. (Bruce needed a few years to come to form). I like Basham in his limited action, and Epenesa has played well too. Addison I think is a liability and Hughes can never seem to get a call when he’s actually being disruptive. I think Addison is gone after this year.

 

We have a damn good team, and our Defense has played to an excellent level, but I don’t think we are truly elite as of yet. I think honestly next year we may be. With our weapons we have on offense at skill

positions I think we have another draft like last year where we shore up the “less sexy” positions. Oline is top priority, then DL to replace Star after next year. We also need a CB2. I know we tend to hit well on late round picks but I believe we leverage some of them to trade up and maybe take 5 players total. Between the influx of new blood and the veterans maybe having 1-2 more good years before age slows them down, we remain great but we may push to elite levels if we hit well

Edited November 2, 2021 by KingBoots8

[streetkings01]

I’m tryna figure out when’s the last time the NFL had an elite defense? As of right now our defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl with.

[Patrick Duffy]

So far so good. We'll see how it goes the rest of the way. Hopefully even better into post season

[dave mcbride]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In fairness to the folks arguing that, I do think defensive rankings are in some part (especially still relatively early in the season) as much an indication of strength of opponent as strength of defense. The two that came to mind immediately to me are Arizona and New Orleans who are both solidly top 10 by rankings but who have faced tougher slates are undervalued by the traditional metrics. 

 

Interestingly I checked the Football Outsiders DVOA and while they still heavily caveat their rankings with still less than half a season played, what would you know their top 3 is Buffalo #1, Arizona #2 and New Orleans #3. 

The other thing I’ll say about the Bills D at least up to this point is that they are HEALTHY. That alone makes them better. I think Milaon is the only starter who has had any down time, and he wasn’t out for long. Who knows if they’ll be able to maintain that.

[TheBrownBear]

Good, but not great.  In our two games against bonafide NFL offenses, we've given up an average of 27 points.  We need an elite guy on the front four to take it to the next level.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

18 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

So right now as it stands, the Bills are #1 in the NFL in total yards, points and turnovers (tied) on defense. 

 

Am I the only one who doesn't think they are as good as the stats show?

 

I certainly think this is a good defense but I don't feel they're elite.  Their numbers are elite but I'm not there yet with them.

 

What about yous guys?

I think they are play very good and should even improve barring injury. I was trying to get the Bills defense in FFL in the 14th rd but someone took them before me, 1st defense picked.

[JaCrispy]

I liked our 2014 D better...they were nastier 👍

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Despite the stats I don't trust our DEF to play well against good offenses, or to step up and win a game in the clutch. 

 

If a 1 score game is coming down to the final possession I would want to see Josh and the offense out there 10 out of 10 times instead of relying on the DEF for a stop.

 

The DEF is certainly good enough to win a SuperBowl, although not good enough to carry the team to a Superbowl (like the Ravens or Bears). 

[Green Lightning]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean this year that just isn't true.

Against inferior teams, agree. Against the Titans we couldn't get off the field. Even Tua converted several 3rd and longs. Let's see how we do against Tampa. I don't care about stats that include the bad teams, we struggle to get off the field against playoff caliber teams that we will need to beat to win it all. Our pass rush just can't finish.

[PatsFanNH]

IMO they been what you want in a D. They are dominating weaker O’s so far on your schedule and making those games easier wins.  As for good teams they haven’t faced enough good Os to know yet.. I think after the stretch from Indy to Tampa Bay we will know just how good or bad they are. 

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Against inferior teams, agree. Against the Titans we couldn't get off the field. Even Tua converted several 3rd and longs. Let's see how we do against Tampa. I don't care about stats that include the bad teams, we struggle to get off the field against playoff caliber teams that we will need to beat to win it all. Our pass rush just can't finish.

 

Tennessee were 4 of 10 on third down. It is fair to point out that all 4 of those conversions were 3rd and 6 or longer, but that is still pretty good going, Tennesee's season average on 3rd down conversion is 43%, the Bills kept them below that. 

 

Miami were 4 of 14 on third down. 3 of their 4 conversions were 3rd and 6 or longer but one of those was by penalty rather than by play. Miami average 40% on third down for the season the Bills kept them to 28%.

 

Could the defense have played better against Tennessee, yep, especially second half. That said, 3rd down wasn't the issue. Only two of those third down conversions were in the second half. The Bills issue against the Titans is they lose too often on first down which gives them really favourable either way down and distance on 2nd down and that is when they kill you with play action. Have done two years running.

 

But I think you have to have realistic expectations about what good defenses look like in the NFL in 2021. There are no dominant defenses. The league is dominated by offense. The stat about scoring within the final 2 minutes being way up is just one evidence point. Defense is not about stopping teams anymore. The rules and the skill of the Quarterbacks and receiver just don't allow it. The best you can do against good teams is restrict them. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Not good enough 

 

🤪😄

[YattaOkasan]

5 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

Good, but not great.  In our two games against bonafide NFL offenses, we've given up an average of 27 points.  We need an elite guy on the front four to take it to the next level.

Ahh... this is still just saying we had ONE bad game.  Our game against KC is one of the best defensive performance against Mahomes (I found a total of 3 lower QB ratings than our game).  They had 1 bad game where they gave up 143 rushing yards on 20 attempts to a guy not playing the rest of the season.

[Doc Brown]

I'd pry only take the Steelers, Panthers, and Rams over them.  We have a top five defense.

[YattaOkasan]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I'd pry only take the Steelers, Panthers, and Rams over them.  We have a top five defense.

Id pass on the Panthers.  I like what were doing better.  30+ points to the Vikings ughh....  Panthers are doing well to keep yards down but Bills are getting takeaways.  Also if were on the subject of teams that havent played anyone can I have the Panthers for 100 Doc

Edited November 2, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Id pass on the Panthers.  I like what were doing better.  30+ points to the Vikings ughh....  Panthers are doing well to keep yards down but Bills are getting takeaways.  Also if were on the subject of teams that havent played anyone can I have the Panthers for 100 Doc

And we allowed 30 plus to the Titans.  I'm not making the who they've played argument.  From a pure talent and depth perspective I believe they're a little better.

[JerseyBills]

6 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

Good, but not great.  In our two games against bonafide NFL offenses, we've given up an average of 27 points.  We need an elite guy on the front four to take it to the next level.

Say What?!?!

D is playing elite and dominating every stat category.  

We get pressure at an enormous pace. 

Big Ed, Star, Groot ,Hughes ,Addison all playing consistently great.

 

Boogie and AJ have had their moments but Don't play consistently.  

Our DL has been playing very well. 

[YattaOkasan]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

And we allowed 30 plus to the Titans.  I'm not making the who they've played argument.  From a pure talent and depth perspective I believe they're a little better.

Sorry I know you werent making the who weve played arguement that was others. 

 

Although since you brought up 30+ to the Titans (understandable), I would say they have given up 30+ to the Cowboys (understandable) and Vikings (less understandable).  We have also put up one of the best defensive performance (top 5 by QB rating) against Mahomes. 

 

From talent, our Coverage def seems better (more picks in less games) and their rush seems better so maybe youre a pass rush type of guy...?  I dont really see big differences in talent elsewhere.  Depth I dont agree as they have a couple of Bills cast offs playing for them.  Why do you think their depth is better...?  

 

[TH3]

23 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

So right now as it stands, the Bills are #1 in the NFL in total yards, points and turnovers (tied) on defense. 

 

Am I the only one who doesn't think they are as good as the stats show?

 

I certainly think this is a good defense but I don't feel they're elite.  Their numbers are elite but I'm not there yet with them.

 

What about yous guys?

Can the mods collect all these threads into a single “I need to find something wrong and drag everyone in” thread?

 

FFS be happy …They are a SB contender….that’s all you can ask for…

[Logic]

I think we have the exact style of defense you need to win consistently in the modern NFL: Seemingly simple but, in reality, quite complex mix of Cover 3 and Cover 4 looks that show you one thing pre-snap and then rotate to something different post snap. Fast, sideline-to-sideline linebacker duo that often erases the middle of the field. The only thing we're missing is a consistent pass rush from our front four. Hopefully that changes as Epenesa and Rousseau and Basham progress. Add that in and you've got exactly the type of defense that the 2021 NFL calls for.

Also, with a few years of results now in, I see this pattern: This defense consistently shuts down average QBs and inferior QBs, but more often than not looks somewhat average against high quality QBs. This defense consistently dominates the offenses that it "should" dominate". They rarely ***** the bed against teams they're "supposed to" beat. On the other hand, high quality quarterbacks are smart enough to crack our defense's code enough of the time that they'll usually produce yardage and points against us. This isn't a bad thing. If the Bills win the games they "should" win every season and dominate lesser QBs, that usually means 10 wins.

The problem, of course, is that once you get to the playoffs, you're usually facing good quarterbacks. The Bills under McDermott have yet to limit those types of quarterbacks in playoff games. They shut down Jackson last year, sure, but he's not exactly a dominant passer at this point in his career. Watson, Rivers, and Mahomes all ate our defense's lunch.

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Can the mods collect all these threads into a single “I need to find something wrong and drag everyone in” thread?

 

FFS be happy …They are a SB contender….that’s all you can ask for…

 

How did you get "I need to find something wrong..." out of this thread when I specifically said I think this defense is good but not convinced it's elite yet.

 

"The defense is good" ...."OH FFS be happy"

[TheBrownBear]

8 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Say What?!?!

D is playing elite and dominating every stat category.  

We get pressure at an enormous pace. 

Big Ed, Star, Groot ,Hughes ,Addison all playing consistently great.

 

Boogie and AJ have had their moments but Don't play consistently.  

Our DL has been playing very well. 

Tua, Brissett, Heinicke, Davis Mills, washed up Roethlisberger and flailing Mahomes (who has looked like absolute crap in about half of his starts this season).

 

I think our defense is good, maybe very good, but I don't believe it's elite - which, based on our soft schedule, we won't be able to assess until the Tampa game and then the playoffs.

[Doc Brown]

34 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Sorry I know you werent making the who weve played arguement that was others. 

 

Although since you brought up 30+ to the Titans (understandable), I would say they have given up 30+ to the Cowboys (understandable) and Vikings (less understandable).  We have also put up one of the best defensive performance (top 5 by QB rating) against Mahomes. 

 

From talent, our Coverage def seems better (more picks in less games) and their rush seems better so maybe youre a pass rush type of guy...?  I dont really see big differences in talent elsewhere.  Depth I dont agree as they have a couple of Bills cast offs playing for them.  Why do you think their depth is better...?  

 

Yeah.  That's basically what it comes down to as they're close talent wise.  Burns, Reddick, and Jones are studs.  Gross-Matos and Brown provide great young depth.  Keep in mind that we've been healthy and they gave up all those points without Shaq Thompson in the lineup and lost their rookie first round CB for the year.  The addition of Gilmore will help.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Doc Brown

[Boatdrinks]

Top unit that lacks an elite DL or LB in the front 7. An elite level group that is greater than the sum of its parts. They’ll finish in the top ten at the end of the regular season and possibly the top 5. Not flashy, very efficient.