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How do you deep down, really feel about this defense?


Royale with Cheese

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We don’t run a sexy, blitzing scheme that generates sacks and negative plays.  For the most part, we stay conservative, keep everything in front of us, and try to force teams to throw short of the sticks.  We expertly disguise and run a mix of zone coverages and sprinkle in man based on matchups.  
 

We still don’t dominate offensive lines with our front four, no matter the combination or platooned fresh legs.  I don’t trust our ability to generate pressure on a 3rd and long without calling a blitz.  I also don’t trust our tackling at times.  It annoys me when the concept works and we let the guy break a tackle and they get a first down.  
 

I think there is some merit to the observation that we are saving some things for the playoffs.  
 

Additionally, I feel like Edmunds is getting better this year.  I watched him closely at the Dolphins game yesterday and he brought the wood on a number of tackles.  

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It's a defense that played Patrick Mahomes and Ben roethlisberger to roughly their season averages. A home's got 20 points and roethlisberger got 17, and those are good outcomes for a team that averages 16 points allowed. For all the talk of what happens when we play a competent quarterback, it seems to me like most of the time the defense still plays to its standard. Like every other NFL defense, they don't play as well when they overplay the run. Prime Time game against Tennessee turned into a shootout, but that was the first game where Tennessee really had the full complement of its offensive players and nobody really figured that out, other than the unfortunate injury to Derrick Henry. But again, in the six other games that were not against Tennessee they've pretty reliably given up somewhere between 0 and 20 points, and in today's NFL you should win every game where you give up that number.

 

They don't get the most sacks but sacks are useless as a metric for overall defensive performance. Experience the Mario Williams contract recently enough to understand that big money Superstar pass rushers are never worth their value and are fool's Gold. The difference making players for the bills are two safeties, white and Johnson at the cornerback positions, and Milano. I also really really like a lot of what I see from Edmunds this year but other people don't.

 

It's the best defense in the league but it's a defense that's built on very very modern concepts. They use the defensive line rotation because the role of the defensive line is to stop the run, not necessarily get sacks. The linebacking core is built to be very good in coverage, which it is, and they're built to take away big plays and give up short ones. It's less of a Ben but don't break and more of a defense that is built to stop drives instead of being built to make bigger plays like sacks and turnovers. The reason why it works so well and is sustainable is because there are other things for the defense to go off of when they don't get turnovers, which we know isn't really a sustainable metric. 

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Disagree on points about his having trouble against good QBs.  No QB has had a good game against us this year (including mahomes and tannehill).  
 

I think we are designed to play TB in many ways. Everyone struggles with them from a defensive perspective but I think we would do better than most (by inviting the run).

 

I think our weakness is a really strong run first team that can be complimented with a good passing attack when the box is stacked.  Titans (before Henry was out), Browns, Ravens are teams I’m thinking of (some top offensive teams from last year). 

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One thing I give them kudos for is their ability to jump back on the field. Our Offense does not grind their opponents down. We score quickly and efficiently. If not, it’s usually a 3-and-out. Either way, the D is back on the field in short order. Now, we are 3rd in time of possession, but I think this is more of a testament on how fast our D can get off the field rather than use running down the clock on the ground. 

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42 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Great QBs will carve this D up, but it will take long drives of no mistakes to do it. This D frustrates me by pressuring, but seldom getting the QB down. Like last year, they give up 3rd and long routinely. 

 

I mean this year that just isn't true.

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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the comments in this thread are kind of funny.  Lower top 10?   Lead the league in yards against and points against, lead the league in takeaways, and you think there are 7, 8 or 9 better defenses?   What makes those defenses better?  Their teams have cheerleaders?

Cmon man. You must realize they have played terrible QBs and teams. Nobody is saying they are bad, but there is no way anyone can know they are elite.

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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the comments in this thread are kind of funny.  Lower top 10?   Lead the league in yards against and points against, lead the league in takeaways, and you think there are 7, 8 or 9 better defenses?   What makes those defenses better?  Their teams have cheerleaders?

 

In fairness to the folks arguing that, I do think defensive rankings are in some part (especially still relatively early in the season) as much an indication of strength of opponent as strength of defense. The two that came to mind immediately to me are Arizona and New Orleans who are both solidly top 10 by rankings but who have faced tougher slates are undervalued by the traditional metrics. 

 

Interestingly I checked the Football Outsiders DVOA and while they still heavily caveat their rankings with still less than half a season played, what would you know their top 3 is Buffalo #1, Arizona #2 and New Orleans #3. 

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5 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

So right now as it stands, the Bills are #1 in the NFL in total yards, points and turnovers (tied) on defense. 

 

Am I the only one who doesn't think they are as good as the stats show?

 

I certainly think this is a good defense but I don't feel they're elite.  Their numbers are elite but I'm not there yet with them.

 

What about yous guys?

You didn't say why "deep down" you believe they are NOT elite. 

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are the 5th beet 3rd down defense in the league. 

this !

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Oliver, White,Milano, Edmunds,Poyer,Hyde are  really good. The edge rushers are giving good effort and getting reasonable pressure. The only game the defense couldn't stop the opponent was Tenn,and that was because defending Henry required single coverage on Brown and Jones. This defensive challenge is the reason Tenn has won 5 straight. Star has provided great run defense and pressure up the middle. All told, this defense is as close to elite as any team's defense in the AFC.

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14 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

So right now as it stands, the Bills are #1 in the NFL in total yards, points and turnovers (tied) on defense. 

 

Am I the only one who doesn't think they are as good as the stats show?

 

I certainly think this is a good defense but I don't feel they're elite.  Their numbers are elite but I'm not there yet with them.

 

What about yous guys?

 

 

Damn good. Top five. But it's still a bit early in the season.

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The stats show them clearly #1, agree that is probably not accurate, who you play matters.   But they are better than last years defense after the bye which was pretty darn good.  I think their success is largely based on scheme and matchups.  With a bad gameplan/matchup they can be exploited.  But all defenses fall under that same umbrella these days.

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Are they a good defense? Absolutely. 2 shutouts is impressive at this level no matter who we are playing against.

 

Are they a great defense? Most likely. When playing high level talent we almost always keep the scores low and competitive. QBs often have average at best performances against us. Rushing has been more successful however we are vastly improved compared to last year.

 

Are they an Elite defense? Not at this time. Our backfield is probably a CB2 away from being elite (although Levi I think has played well this year, we know our elite players are White, Poyer, and Hyde). Our LBs are strong but still not quite there (Milano is definitely Elite, not going to start a debate on Edmunds).


The Line and Edges are the real hang ups. Be it no-call penalties, lack of penetration, or just not hitting the QB when the opportunity presents itself is a challenge. Star showed he is valuable vs the run on the line, but I am concerned about depth. We have a plethora of Edge players who any seem to get into a rhythm because we have to scratch a few healthy players for numbers reasons. I think Groot is going to be a force but I don’t expect him to come into his rookie year as that level of a player. (Bruce needed a few years to come to form). I like Basham in his limited action, and Epenesa has played well too. Addison I think is a liability and Hughes can never seem to get a call when he’s actually being disruptive. I think Addison is gone after this year.

 


We have a damn good team, and our Defense has played to an excellent level, but I don’t think we are truly elite as of yet. I think honestly next year we may be. With our weapons we have on offense at skill

positions I think we have another draft like last year where we shore up the “less sexy” positions. Oline is top priority, then DL to replace Star after next year. We also need a CB2. I know we tend to hit well on late round picks but I believe we leverage some of them to trade up and maybe take 5 players total. Between the influx of new blood and the veterans maybe having 1-2 more good years before age slows them down, we remain great but we may push to elite levels if we hit well

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10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In fairness to the folks arguing that, I do think defensive rankings are in some part (especially still relatively early in the season) as much an indication of strength of opponent as strength of defense. The two that came to mind immediately to me are Arizona and New Orleans who are both solidly top 10 by rankings but who have faced tougher slates are undervalued by the traditional metrics. 

 

Interestingly I checked the Football Outsiders DVOA and while they still heavily caveat their rankings with still less than half a season played, what would you know their top 3 is Buffalo #1, Arizona #2 and New Orleans #3. 

The other thing I’ll say about the Bills D at least up to this point is that they are HEALTHY. That alone makes them better. I think Milaon is the only starter who has had any down time, and he wasn’t out for long. Who knows if they’ll be able to maintain that.

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