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A few thoughts about the Titans game, in no particular order


Virgil

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3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Noticed most of his deep balls were under thrown last night. Which is weird for a dude with his arm. Again, another reason I disagree with saying he was "great". Still love him, but an off night.


Fine.  I’ll change it from great to good enough to win 😋

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Thanks Virgil.

 

Nice write-up right there with ya on how tired I am getting of us losing games to that squad.

 

The new kid Spencer I can forgive the rookie bumps in the road. The other guys on the OL just needed to be better moving guys.

 

I thought in the second half they fixed some of their protection issues and Allen often had time, but they were abysmal getting any push on short yardage.

 

Damn.... going to be a long 2 weeks.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, beavis said:

Titans were dropping bodies. Do that in January. Don't do that in October. I bet Titans don't make the playoffs.

 

 

Epnesa, Zimmer, and Klein really were no brainers here. Move Edmunds back 2 yards. Blitz from the edge.

They did seem to gas out on the dline late in the game too.  I'm shocked they came up so huge on that 4th down

3 minutes ago, Virgil said:


Fine.  I’ll change it from great to good enough to win 😋

It's crazy how much getting the W or the L changes the perception of things.  If he gets the ball one inch further on that hurdle and we get in the end zone I bet he'd be the mvp favorite right now and the whole sports world would be talking him up...but now we've got people saying he was mediocre last night loll

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You nailed this when you said there front four vs our 5 on that last play...The Bills should win this identify the double team smash and go to that side.  Not experienced enough to know the line call but seeing the three inside guys go right and Brown then come behind them it looked like Josh should of went right and then had Brown on the back pushing to get that.  Thought Tennessee really gambled only putting four there and almost inviting the Bills on the sneak.

 

I personally agree with the call.  I would of liked to seen Josh start there under center and also have the hard count to help there as well

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I look forward to these write ups. I couldn’t get to sleep I was so upset. Crazy, it’s just a game; but dammit, the years of suffering were supposed to be over last year.

 

I did not expect 16-1, but they (Titans) were dropping like flies out there; thank God the guy carted off is ok!

 

The Bills have simply GOT to play elite football week in and out. That’s it. Full stop. And hate on me if you want, but Daboll is only human and he’s been absolutely wrecked by tragedy in three weeks’ time. 
 

Take a week off Bills, and let’s show up for the next one.

 

ps—and the long shot to Diggs resulting in PI was NOT underthrown as the idiot on tv kept saying. The Titans’ defender shoved Diggs forward into the end zone, ergo making the pass fall behind. It was a killer throw.

Edited by npeartisgod
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Nice write up as usual, agree with most of your points.

 

I don't agree they did a decent job on Henry. Every yard counts, it was more than just the 73 yard TD, he had a couple of other big runs and also it seemed whenever they needed only 2 or 3 yards for a first, Henry got it. The defense stopped him several times, but not when they needed to in order to get off the field.

 

Because they were forced to worry about Henry all the time, they also failed miserably at defending the play action.

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51 minutes ago, Realist said:

Nice write up as usual, agree with most of your points.

 

I don't agree they did a decent job on Henry. Every yard counts, it was more than just the 73 yard TD, he had a couple of other big runs and also it seemed whenever they needed only 2 or 3 yards for a first, Henry got it. The defense stopped him several times, but not when they needed to in order to get off the field.

 

Because they were forced to worry about Henry all the time, they also failed miserably at defending the play action.

 

Take away the 76 yrd TD cause of holding.... he was 67 yrds on 19 carries for a 3.53 avg.  It really is decent I think.  He does however change the entire D approach. 

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4 hours ago, Virgil said:

1 - Trenches - This game was lost in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  The Titans had three guys with their hands planted and one roaming fourth defender come at Josh for most of the game.  In some cases, that was enough as the Bills offensive line struggled to pick up the stunt.  There were a few plays that Allen looked deep, but had to get rid of the ball or got hit as he threw.  The line didn't get much push as Motor and Moss were relatively ineffective all game, even though Daboll kept pushing it up until the last drive.  Similar to the Steelers game, and what we will probably see against the Bucs, our offensive line is still not able to win the 5 on 4 match-ups, allowing the opposing defenses to drop 7 into coverage, with two safeties deep.

 

2 - Allen - Allen had an overall good game, barring the second to last series were he took an unnecessary shot deep against double coverage, setting us up for a long 3rd down.  I have no issue with him wanting to take shots downfield, but that wasn't the coverage or time to do it.  Had he taken the open underneath passes, we would have had a much more manageable third down and possibly a sustained drive.  The slip on the 4th down sneak to end the game was unfortunate, but it's hard to blame Allen for that one.  Considering the lack of run support, pass rush, and two deep safeties, Allen did more than enough to win the game.

Re 1:   Probably more disappointed in the O-line.  Not much time for Allen.

Re 2:  3rd and really long and throwing lower percentage bombs?  It was as though Daball/Josh wanted highlight plays more than they wanted a 1st down.  Ill-timed indeed.

Other:  The number of flags in games has conditioned me to not enjoy the play as it happens (e.g. the McKenzie return).   I just expect a flag and a nullified play.

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3 hours ago, Success said:

On #10, I'm in the "go for it every time" crowd, but agree w/ your analysis.  First, it's not really a "debate" - both points of view on the core decision are valid, imo.  I don't see how anyone can really fault the aggressiveness, and I certainly wouldn't have complained had they kicked the FG there. But I liked the mentality.

 

But the bigger issue is the play call itself.  In general, we see that too much.  Dallas did it Sunday and almost lost the game as a result (and BB always stacks against the run on those plays - more than other coaches).  They were aggressive on the decision, but ultra-conservative on the play call.  Let Josh play fake & see what's available.  If he chooses to run, he's better in space regardless.

 

Great write-up, and a great game.  Rare is the loss where I don't feel discouraged.  I'm still just as optimistic as I was when we beat KC.

 


Yes, Josh is so good at throwing on the run to the right, I’d have rather seen them run that.  Being outplayed in the trenches and running a QB sneak near the goal line was just dumb.

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4 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:


Yes, Josh is so good at throwing on the run to the right, I’d have rather seen them run that.  Being outplayed in the trenches and running a QB sneak near the goal line was just dumb.

Totally disagree.  Josh missed converting on that play only once when the snap was fumbled (bad snap).

 

Josh sneaking 6 inches forward is virtually a guarantee, except for when it isn't.

 

When something disappointing like that happens, people IMMEDIATELY want to start BLAMING someone or some thing.

 

The reality is going for it on 4th down was TOTALLY the right call; the play call was just fine and it should have worked.


But it didn't.  Move forward and be very grateful that didn't involve our season ending.

 

There's no blame to spread here!  It just didn't work.

 

 

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Seems like a good thread for this ; i think with Justin Zimmer 's size and athleticism he should be used as a short yardage back. Im not saying every time but on plays were both teams know what were doing then it would be a good time, especially when Allen was getting shut down for the most part in games like last night. Also trick plays could be designed off this setup so its not obvious all the time.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

 

9 - Offensive Line - Spencer Brown, the golden child by many, had a rough game out there.  He allowed a pressure which led to an interception.  Morse and Mongo couldn't communicate on stunt plays, letting guys run free to Josh.  Dawkins got destroyed on the final play.  Overall, in the second week of their new look starting lineup, the Bills front 5 were didn't show up when it mattered most and it showed on the final scoreboard.  With no rushing attack, Allen was his normal pass happy self and made some throws to counter the pass rush.  However, with a better effort up front, we could have easily seen a better outcome.

 

 

Go Bills!!!!


On one play that sticks in my memory, the Titans had only 3 D-linemen, with Landry positioned near the edge, who was probably rushing.  They ran a stunt and Landry got thru to sack Josh.  Meanwhile, Williams is by himself near the line of scrimmage looking around for someone to block.  I also noticed Williams a couple of times diving to try and get a hand on a rusher already running free.  Same with Brown.

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4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Again, this goes to my point - if you don't like the Baysian probability thing, call it macro-probability (overall success against any team we've played) vs micro-probability (probability of success given in-game observations against this specific opponent in this game).

 

IMHO the overall analytics need to be modified to account for new in-game information of how the OL is performing against this team on this day.

 

 

I actually agreed with the decision to go for it.  However I did not like the play call.  The Oline was struggling pretty much all game.  I would have preferred an Allen rollout to his right with an option of either throwing or running it in.  The defense couldn't stop the Titans and I think this weighed heavily on McD's decision to go for it.

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3 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

I actually agreed with the decision to go for it.  However I did not like the play call.  The Oline was struggling pretty much all game.  I would have preferred an Allen rollout to his right with an option of either throwing or running it in.  The defense couldn't stop the Titans and I think this weighed heavily on McD's decision to go for it.

 

That's about where I am.  Overall I believe the win probabilities are higher if you go for it.  But given how our OL and their DL were playing, a different playcall may have been better.

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4 hours ago, cale said:

There's no way a team this talented on offense should settle for field goals. But we are essentially one dimensional without a solid running game. We just happen to have an other worldly QB who in most games gets enough protection. Completely agree, that lack of adjustments killed us.

How many wasted runs did we have in the red zone? Daboll using them to keep LBs from defending the EZ on passes or something? That was infuriating. We lost the last series by running 2x in a row.

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4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Our problem in the red zone is we have no real run game. People talk about our YPC but a lot those yards are gifted to us by defenses that are overplaying the pass. When the deep passing windows go away, we see what the run game is really made of. Every time we hand the ball off in the red zone it is a complete waste of a down. But I can't blame Daboll too much, if we just pass it every time defenses can tee off. I don't have statistics on this but it feels like a lot of our TDs this year have been from 20+ yards out. Once we get inside the 10 yard line our offensive identity doesn't work.

This is spot on.  And defenses are onto the designed Allen runs.  My thought is that once they get in the red zone they should pass on almost every down with Allen being told to run if anything opens up. 

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5 hours ago, Virgil said:

Dawkins got destroyed on the final play. 

 

I tend to be conservative as well, but I am 100% fine with McD going for it. Gutsy move.

 

Of course, we all would be feeling a whole lot better today if, as you say, Dawkins did not get absolutely destroyed on the final offensive play.

 

I was a bit surprised that we had so much trouble with the Titans given their injuries etc. The Titans definitely would be a very tough team to play against in the playoffs if they are healthier than they were yesterday.

 

Oh well, these next couple of weeks without Buffalo Bills football are going to be tough. 

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Overall agree completely. Just disagree on 2 things:

Best Shot: I agree the Titans played their hearts out, but "we got the Titan's absolute best game" with the injuries they had on the defensive side of the ball simply is not possible IMO.

 

The Play: "I don't blame McD for going for it and understand why."  I do.  He is supposed to know better, and the topper was the play call as you mentioned.  But, Josh yells to the sideline to go for it every 4th down less than 5 yards it seems.  Maybe he will learn a valuable lesson from yesterday.

 

All in all it was a fun game to watch and the Bills showed well.  Just need to improve more in both play and in-game coaching decisions before they will be bringing home the big prize.

 

And, Henry is a freak ... period :)

 

 

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4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You dare criticize Josh?!? You must be spoiled. :nana:

 

4 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Haha yea he missed that one...the decision was fine both those defenders were beat and he just has to get it almost anywhere out in front of sanders but he underthrew it 

 

Allen didn't underthrow Sanders, he intentionally threw it short to avoid overthrowing him and to attempt to secure the long gain.  😎

Edited by Haslett_Stomp
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Excellent write up but if I could spin my own angle on "the play".  Agree or disagree about going for it I can also see why they might try to keep the ball in their hands and decide there own fate right then and there.  My issue is why would we relegate that 4th down to a sneak.  Why try to sneak 1/2 a yard to get a first.  We were only three yards from the end zone.  If you are putting all your eggs in one basket why not use the whole field go for a 3 yard TD and let Allen rumble for 1/2 a yard if necessary.  Also I've seen plenty of debate on Edwards and I can't speak to how well he plugged the holes and if the runs Henry broke had anything to do with him or not but i will say Edwards hit Henry harder than anyone else and was the one person out there who brought him down where he hit him.  Didn't realize Edwards hit that hard.

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Good stuff Virgil. I agree and couldn't have said it better!

 

Pisses me off too...this Titans team lost to the NY Jets! 

 

One word...overconfidence! It seemed like everyone was saying the Bills would win and it was just by how much. 

 

The Bills defense was so hell bent on stopping Henry that they forgot how to pass rush. Yet, they still couldn't stop Henry! 

 

Both Buffalo Bills lines simply aren't good enough and neither is the coaching. Buffalo played into their strengths as they tend to do on occasion. The Titans have the 24th ranked overall defense.

 

This loss might have just lost Buffalo the home field advantage to the 5-1 Ravens. Against a Titans team Buffalo should have beaten like the Cardinals beat them in week one, 38-13. 

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Noticed most of his deep balls were under thrown last night. Which is weird for a dude with his arm. Again, another reason I disagree with saying he was "great". Still love him, but an off night.

Great? No.

Off night? No.

Josh Allen played a gutsy game and got us so close to winning that game.

Our last offensive drive and Allen was in command. That ridiculous completion to Gabriel Davis just made you feel like we were going to win. Just came up short.

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Some comments to your comments:

 

1  Trenches   Agree lost in trenches on both sides.

 

3 & 4 Pass rush & Henry.    Agree they were too worried about Henry that couldn't stop Brown much in 2nd half.  Saw some headline  about "Henry ran over Bills" etc.  143 yards is alot, but take away the 76 yard run and it's about 70 yards on 19 attempts.  Yes was big run but kind of play once you break through 1st line of defense, there's often no one left to stop him so becomes long gain.   Most players don't have the speed to out run everyone either, but he does.

 

8 Red Zone.  Think we are running to often on early downs when defense is more geared up for it, and not the best team at running.  So now we have 2nd and 8 and defense is geared to stop pass.  Would like to see more runs on 1st down, maybe run on 3rd and 2 when more expecting pass.

 

9  Offensive line  Isn't this 3rd week of this combo with Brown at RT??  Agree overall didn't look good.  Brown is young and improving so expect him to learn from this and by year end will should be a strength of line.   Not so sure Mongo has it in him though to get better.  We may be seeing his best.

 

10 The play   I'd have gone for it as they did.  You stated; "McD shouldn't have gambled the game on us winning in the trenches because the entire game showed you we'd lose"   I'd counter that with; "McD shouldn't have gambled the game on us winning the coin toss because the entire game showed you we'd lose if Tenn won the toss"  Admittedly I also think almost as good a shot of us going down the field and scoring a TD and win the game too.  But based on what I saw overall, I'd give Tenn a little better chance of scoring a TD on the first possession of OT than us.

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10 hours ago, Big Turk said:

McD said Boogie and AJ were inactive because they wanted to go with bigger bodies to try and matchup better to stop Henry. Outside of 2 runs, the 76 yarder and the 20 yarder they did a decent job, Tennessee was in 3re and long a lot.

 

Also statistically the Bills had a 75% chance of converting and a 63% chance of winning by going for it on that play versus a 42% chance of winning if they kicked the FG. Easy to say it's the wrong call because it didn't work but statistically they would make it much more often than not.

The problem with that thought is that Henry usually gets his big runs on stretch plays. Wouldn’t had been better to have guys that can pursue? 

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9 hours ago, Saint Doug said:

I’m not understanding the 42% percent rate. Can you walk me through how you got that number? It seems before the coin flip, the chances should be 50/50 for either team. 

Less than 50% because they would have to make the field goal first, which has its own probability of not happening. 

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All this great analysis and for me none of it matters. 

The Bills are soft. They have been for years and I really don't know why that is.  Allen is the toughest guy on the team followed by Diggs and our two safeties.  Both lines are soft.  The Bills are a finesse team.  When they play a bully they get physically beaten.  This was not scheme.  It was a flat out beating at the point of attack.  

 

 

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50 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

All this great analysis and for me none of it matters. 

The Bills are soft. They have been for years and I really don't know why that is.  Allen is the toughest guy on the team followed by Diggs and our two safeties.  Both lines are soft.  The Bills are a finesse team.  When they play a bully they get physically beaten.  This was not scheme.  It was a flat out beating at the point of attack.  

 

 

I understand your point but it may be an oversimplification because we certainly have shown we can be ‘the bully’ against most other teams we play—we didn’t finesse the Chiefs or anyone else since Pittsburgh imho, and until we see more of a pattern this year to the contrary, I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt to have a one-off game or 2 over the course of a very long year. And not for nothing, we still had plenty of opportunity to come away with the W even after taking Tennessee’s best shot, so let’s see what the future brings us. 

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5 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

All this great analysis and for me none of it matters. 

The Bills are soft. They have been for years and I really don't know why that is.  Allen is the toughest guy on the team followed by Diggs and our two safeties.  Both lines are soft.  The Bills are a finesse team.  When they play a bully they get physically beaten.  This was not scheme.  It was a flat out beating at the point of attack.  

 

 

 

 

I don't know that I agree the Bills are soft. Are they occasionally susceptible to pure power football? Yes. But that is because this is a team built for speed and built to both pass the ball and defend the pass. The Browns and the Titans are the two teams currently doing what Rex Ryan's plan for the Bills was.... being the ying while the rest of the league yangs. So as more and more teams go to nickel base defenses those offenses power through. I think the problem on the oline is not about toughness at all. It is purely about ability. They just do not have enough talent up there IMO. 

 

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8 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

Great? No.

Off night? No.

Josh Allen played a gutsy game and got us so close to winning that game.

Our last offensive drive and Allen was in command. That ridiculous completion to Gabriel Davis just made you feel like we were going to win. Just came up short.

 

The only valid criticisms of Josh on Monday are he missed Diggs in the endzone on that second series. Not sure what happened there, did the ball come out funny? Maybe, but he has to make that throw. And then the penultimate drive we have no idea what the playcalls were, obviously, it did look a bit like the first down was a called shot play, but Josh still had time to come off that and had guys underneath he could have got the ball to. The second down play it looked like he came off underneath guys to take a deep shot and I think at that point of the game that was a poor choice, because you have to prioritise being on the field. I thought he got greedy there when the situation required patience. But overall, with a horrible performance by the oline in front of him I thought Josh was good. I'd say excellent first half. Not quite as good second half but still good. 

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Thanks Virgil. It's taken me two days to read anything here. You are spot on.

 

Plenty of blame to go around, all phases contributed to this loss: the offense, defense, special teams, and coaching all had a part.

 

Oh well, we can't change it. We can only fix it going forward. Everyone back to the film room and do what we need to not let this happen again!

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19 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

 

3 - Pass Rush - For a Titans team that gave up seven sacks to the NJ Jets, it's infuriating that we weren't able to generate any pressure in the second half.  I understand that we were trying, and failing, to stop Henry, but there were multiple 3rd and long plays in the second half where the Titans were obviously passing.  Yes, Henry was in the backfield for a few of those 3rd down plays, but the Titans didn't attempt to run the ball on a single 3rd and long play.  So fine, watch out for the draw on the first few occasions, but eventually take a shot and blitz on these 3rd and longs versus giving Tannehill all day to find AJ Brown.  Additionally, I don't understand Boogie and AJ being inactive for this game. 

 

 

If by multiple, you mean two, sure. There were no more than that. On their final drive the Titans converted a 3rd and 6 with a pass to AJ Brown that was a backbreaker but I think it has created a perception that this happened a lot. It didn't. TEN had precisely four 3rd downs the whole second half. The Bills issues were 1st and 2nd down. 

 

Tennessee's 3rd downs in the second half:

 

3rd Qrtr 7.15 remaining - 3rd and 10 - not converted pass comes up 2 yards short, TEN goes for and converts 4th and 2

4th Qrtr: 14.17 remaining - 3rd and 5 converted - pass to AJ Brown for 13 yards

4th Qrtrt: 10.27 remaining - 3rd and 11 - not converted - pass comes up 5 yards short, TEN kicks a FG

4th Qrtr: 4.25 remaining - 3rd and 6 converted - pass to Westbrook-Ikhine for 8 yards. 

 

Edited by GunnerBill
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The only valid criticisms of Josh on Monday are he missed Diggs in the endzone on that second series. Not sure what happened there, did the ball come out funny? Maybe, but he has to make that throw. And then the penultimate drive we have no idea what the playcalls were, obviously, it did look a bit like the first down was a called shot play, but Josh still had time to come off that and had guys underneath he could have got the ball to. The second down play it looked like he came off underneath guys to take a deep shot and I think at that point of the game that was a poor choice, because you have to prioritise being on the field. I thought he got greedy there when the situation required patience. But overall, with a horrible performance by the oline in front of him I thought Josh was good. I'd say excellent first half. Not quite as good second half but still good. 

Agree though I would add missing a wide open Sanders in the corner of the endzone.  It was not one of those plays where Allen is looking to the other side of the field. He was rolling that way and chose to throw short to Singletary if I recall instead of Sanders who had beaten his guy by 2 steps

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Just now, Ethan in Portland said:

Agree though I would add missing a wide open Sanders in the corner of the endzone.  It was not one of those plays where Allen is looking to the other side of the field. He was rolling that way and chose to throw short to Singletary if I recall instead of Sanders who had beaten his guy by 2 steps

 

Yea, I think that one was a harder play, there was rush coming at him and that is a hard skill running to your left to open your body back up, but agreed, it was a play that could have been made even though it was certainly not easy. 

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6 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

I understand your point but it may be an oversimplification because we certainly have shown we can be ‘the bully’ against most other teams we play—we didn’t finesse the Chiefs or anyone else since Pittsburgh imho, and until we see more of a pattern this year to the contrary, I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt to have a one-off game or 2 over the course of a very long year. And not for nothing, we still had plenty of opportunity to come away with the W even after taking Tennessee’s best shot, so let’s see what the future brings us. 

You won't see much of a pattern because there are few teams built like Tenn. Gunner mentions this as well. 

If the play the Tirans again the Bills can beat them by getting ahead early. Had those two first drives been TDs instead of FGs the game may have been very different. Daboll needs to recognize this oline cant pass or run block against great D-lines. He needs to keep an extra blocker in. Bills WRscand Knox will get open if Allen has the time. 

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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If by multiple, you mean two, sure. There were no more than that. On their final drive the Titans converted a 3rd and 6 with a pass to AJ Brown that was a backbreaker but I think it has created a perception that this happened a lot. It didn't. TEN had precisely four 3rd downs the whole second half. The Bills issues were 1st and 2nd down. 

 

Tennessee's 3rd downs in the second half:

 

3rd Qrtr 7.15 remaining - 3rd and 10 - not converted pass comes up 2 yards short, TEN goes for and converts 4th and 2

4th Qrtr: 14.17 remaining - 3rd and 5 converted - pass to AJ Brown for 13 yards

4th Qrtrt: 10.27 remaining - 3rd and 11 - not converted - pass comes up 5 yards short, TEN kicks a FG

4th Qrtr: 4.25 remaining - 3rd and 6 converted - pass to Westbrook-Ikhine for 8 yards. 

 

 

You dare correct me!?  😋.   You're right, it felt like a lot more than that

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