Week 5: Bills at Chiefs on SNF

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, nucci said:

Neutral pass rate?

 

Neutral pass rate doesn't mean anything unless you also take into account the isolated run frequency and then standardize the QB's drop depth. 

[Logic]

I just want to see the Bills legitimately go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in a thrilling, back and forth, "game of the year" type contest.

I mean, obviously I want the Bills to win, and would prefer they absolutely dominate the Chiefs. But if they could at least look like they belong on the same FIELD as Kansas City this game (as opposed to the AFCCG, where they looked overmatched the whole way through), that would be great.

I want this Bills squad to come out confident, aggressive, and to show the whole world that they belong in the "best team in the league" conversation. If they lose, they lose, but I want to at least see signs that they're truly ready for the big time.

[Metal Man]

1 minute ago, killshot said:

Can someone explain why the KC game always seems to be at arrowhead and not in buffalo ? 

 

You mean other than last season when the Bills played them in OP?  

😁

[Chandler#81]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

They have a super bowl MVP QB, the best tight end in the league, a hall a fame coach, a young dynamic runner, Chris Jones, Houston, Frank Clark, and the honey bagder. Additional, they have owned the Bills. Do you really think we closed the gap? 

HOF Coach? How did Hank Stram get into this? He’s dead, you know..🤦‍♂️
 

Go away.

[Blank Stare]

8 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

As I think more and more about this game, no reason we can't put up points.  Jalen Freaking Hurts moved the ball and scored on KC.  They don't have a pass rush anymore and their redzone defense is horrible.

 

If we don't play tight like we did last year against them, we should have a great offensive day....no reason it doesn't happen.

They’ve been without a few key players on defense early this year due to injury. Frank Clark, Willie Gay, Charvarius Ward, and Richard Fenton. Some of them are likely back this week. Don’t know how much better they’ll be with them in the lineup, but it can’t hurt.
 

Hoping we don’t make them look like the 85 bears out there this week, but I’m not dismissing their defense in this one. At least not until Allen can show he can play better against them. He’s yet to play well against them, which is a cause for concern. I don’t know if he gets too hype or what, but he needs to get after them this time around. 

[nucci]

8 minutes ago, Logic said:

I just want to see the Bills legitimately go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in a thrilling, back and forth, "game of the year" type contest.

I mean, obviously I want the Bills to win, and would prefer they absolutely dominate the Chiefs. But if they could at least look like they belong on the same FIELD as Kansas City this game (as opposed to the AFCCG, where they looked overmatched the whole way through), that would be great.

I want this Bills squad to come out confident, aggressive, and to show the whole world that they belong in the "best team in the league" conversation. If they lose, they lose, but I want to at least see signs that they're truly ready for the big time.

they do that by winning. Losing would show they're not there yet. I find it interesting some are ok with losing this game. 

[FilthyBeast]

21 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

As I think more and more about this game, no reason we can't put up points.  Jalen Freaking Hurts moved the ball and scored on KC.  They don't have a pass rush anymore and their redzone defense is horrible.

 

If we don't play tight like we did last year against them, we should have a great offensive day....no reason it doesn't happen.

 

I agree with this in theory but I think the problem is twofold:

 

1) It's that mental hurdle that Allen and McDermott specifically need to overcome. Allen in particular, because if he gets off to a slow start and is erratic and has a turnover early things could snowball quickly and rejuvenate the Chiefs defense in the process.

 

2) I think the Chiefs defense will get better as the season goes on especially when they get some more key guys healthy and this is obviously the week they would love to be a 'get right' game against the Bills. Also similar to last year, they played their best game of the season when it mattered in the AFC championship and it's a similar scenario because they know the Bills are red hot right now and getting a lot of national hype just like the week leading into that game. So if the Chiefs defense finally shows up this week there's little chance we have of winning this game and that would go for any other team playing them as well.

 

Bottom line, if we win this game it will be because Allen finally shows up against their defense. I don't see our defense winning game as much as I do being complimentary to Allen leading the way.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, nucci said:

they do that by winning. Losing would show they're not there yet. I find it interesting some are ok with losing this game. 

 

I'm not ok with losing this game, but the Chiefs are going to be up for playing us... and if we lose a close, well played game, then let's get them back in the rematch later this year.  I also understand the importance of this because, if we lose, that rematch might be back in Arrowhead again.  

 

If we look overmatched again, it will just be beyond deflating.  

 

I also think that while we all know we're a contender, a lot of us don't really know how to comprehend going into Arrowhead, getting the W, being in the drivers seat for the 1 seed and considered the best team in the NFL, with legit evidence to back that up.   

 

I'm in my 30's.. All I've known pre-McDermott is Bills pain.  I'm just now beginning to grasp that we're legit in terms of being a contender.  It took multiple years of playoff births, a trip to the AFCCG and then dominating the last 3 bad teams to get me there.  I'll be the embodiment of Josh Allen being the embodiment of the Lebron James meme if we win this game.  

[TH3]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

They have a super bowl MVP QB, the best tight end in the league, a hall a fame coach, a young dynamic runner, Chris Jones, Houston, Frank Clark, and the honey bagder. Additional, they have owned the Bills. Do you really think we closed the gap? 

Closed the gap? 

 

Hardly!

 

Josh has regressed to 2019 levels and has had one good game this year, Beane should have never signed the 5th year option on Edmunds - and...and....did NOTHING on the O line in the off season. We haven't beat anyone...Knox has the dropsies, all MeDermott does is clap and Daboll has checked out on his way with Trubiski to Houston...

 

And Beth Mowins is probably calling the game!!

 

We have NO CHANCE.....Why even go? 

[YoloinOhio]

5 minutes ago, nucci said:

they do that by winning. Losing would show they're not there yet. I find it interesting some are ok with losing this game. 

There was a lot of that from browns fans and media before they went out there week 1 as well and I never understood it. There is nothing infallible about the chiefs. This what they are as of now:  They are one of the better teams in the afc. They have a highly talented and accomplished trio on offense. They lack depth on offense. Their defense is ranked 31st in the league. They are allowing the most points per game in the league. They are 2-2. That’s what they are. 

[CSBill]

21 minutes ago, Logic said:

I just want to see the Bills legitimately go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in a thrilling, back and forth, "game of the year" type contest.

I mean, obviously I want the Bills to win, and would prefer they absolutely dominate the Chiefs. But if they could at least look like they belong on the same FIELD as Kansas City this game (as opposed to the AFCCG, where they looked overmatched the whole way through), that would be great.

I want this Bills squad to come out confident, aggressive, and to show the whole world that they belong in the "best team in the league" conversation. If they lose, they lose, but I want to at least see signs that they're truly ready for the big time.

I prefer a blowout. I’d feel much better about that over any close game. 

[Scott7975]

9 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Agree 100%. The Bills D has faced a terrible Pitt offense, Miami isn't much better and Tua got hurt, WFT are decent, and the Texans enough said. We will see how good the defense really is in Arrowhead. I don't believe the Bills will slow down their offense. The Bills just aren't a good match up vs the Chiefs. Kelce cannot be stopped, CEH shouldn't bad as effective with Star in the middle. Mahomes and Reid know how to beat the Bills. 

 

On the other hand, I think the Chiefs defense is very beatable. The Bills should be able to score. However, they need to change up the game plan. The Chiefs defensive game plan was outstanding against the Bills last year. I believe the threat of a run game is vitato beat the Chiefs. Some quick passes and screens too. Limit the 5 WR formation. 

 

I don't see a Bills win in Arrowhead. The Chiefs will outscore the Bills. They really need the win. I'm laying the 3.5 points and betting big on the Chiefs. 

 

KC.   38

Bills. 28

Spoken like a true homer.

 

Aren't you the same guy that said you were taking the easy money on WTF with the spread?  How much did you lose on that one?  Are you doubling up on this game?

[ColoradoBills]

45 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Bills need to win period and I'll go as far as to say this should be treated as our SB which I know sounds strange in October and considering how well this team has played the last 3 weeks and their long term prospects this season. No it's not just another game no matter what the players and coaches say publicly.

 

Because one thing I think is for certain is that this years Chiefs right now look a lot like Pats teams of years past in that their defense isn't up to snuff early in the season but will put it together by Nov/Dec when it matters. And the sad reality is all the Chiefs need to do is play marginally better on defense to become the odds on SB favorite again because barring injuries their offense is what it is.

 

So if the Bills do lose this game again and it's because of Allen and the offense you can forget about going anywhere come January. I think there is also a lot of pressure on McDermott/Frazier/etc to come up with something different on defense and make quick adjustments if they can't get pressure with just the front four because that's how the AFCG spiraled out of control quickly in the 2nd quarter when the Chiefs easily went down the field for 3 straight TD's before halftime. Conversely we need to pretty much go for every 4th down situation if we are past the 50 yard line.

 

I totally disagree with this train of thought.  It's NOT the Super Bowl.  A loss by the Bills does not end the season and conversely a win does

not get them a Lombardi.  It's a regular season game.

 

If any coach or player was to say or even think that I would question their mental toughness.  This type of thinking is completely opposite of

the "process" mentality.  

[Logic]

14 minutes ago, nucci said:

they do that by winning. Losing would show they're not there yet. I find it interesting some are ok with losing this game. 

Obviously winning would be the best outcome and the clearest statement.

However, given how over-matched the Bills look the last time these two teams were on the field, I think that even a close game that comes down to the last possession would represent a step forward for this Bills team.

I'm not "okay" with losing this game, I just accept it as -- at this point in time, based on what we saw twice last year -- a reasonably likely outcome.

[Greg S]

12 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Closed the gap? 

 

Hardly!

 

Josh has regressed to 2019 levels and has had one good game this year, Beane should have never signed the 5th year option on Edmunds - and...and....did NOTHING on the O line in the off season. We haven't beat anyone...Knox has the dropsies, all MeDermott does is clap and Daboll has checked out on his way with Trubiski to Houston...

 

And Beth Mowins is probably calling the game!!

 

We have NO CHANCE.....Why even go? 

 

I would prefer her over listening to Collingsworth drool over Mahomes all night long.

[LeviF]

11 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

I would prefer her over listening to Collingsworth drool over Mahomes all night long.

“What a *gluck gluck* throw! It’s *slurrrp* amazing to see what this *gag* young man can do!”

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, LeviF said:

“What a *gluck gluck* throw! It’s *slurrrp* amazing to see what this *gag* young man can do!”

 

(play being described is a shovel pass to Kelce)

[NickelCity]

Yes, I'd like a win. No, the fifth game of a potentially 21 game season is not the end all be all. More than anything, I'd like to see Allen play well against them. I think it will go a long way toward our future prospects (and hopefully lead to a victory this Sunday as well). 

 

 

[buffalo2218]

53 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

HOF Coach? How did Hank Stram get into this? He’s dead, you know..🤦‍♂️
 

Go away.

I would question why he thinks Justin Houston is still on that team as well

[nucci]

37 minutes ago, LeviF said:

“What a *gluck gluck* throw! It’s *slurrrp* amazing to see what this *gag* young man can do!”

He also does the same with Allen

[Dan]

For me... one of the keys to winning is Allen.  Not his overall game, because his overall game is awesome.  But it comes down to 1 to 2, maybe 3 throws.   It seems most games, he has a wide open receiver and misfires badly and missed a big completion.  
 

When playing teams like the Texans and Dolphins, you can miss those and keep right on chugging.  But against the better teams.... you really need to hit those. They’re the difference makers.    
 

Hopefully Josh is dialed in and nails those couple of big throws. If so, I think we win easily.  If not, it’s gonna be a dogfight. 
 

My game plan, similar to others, is to start the 1st quarter with a lot of runs and screens to slow the chiefs down.  Settle Josh down, get him in a rhythm, then open it up as needed.   And for the love of god, remember that they have a TE! He’s pretty good!  Don’t let him run around unchecked. 

[Greg S]

Here's a question. If the Bills win the coin toss do you want them to receive or not? Chance to go up 7-0 but at the same time if the Bills D can stop them then its still a chance to grab the lead early and get the ball to start the 2nd half. Of course the risk is falling behind early if they defer.

[Dan]

9 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Here's a question. If the Bills win the coin toss do you want them to receive or not? Chance to go up 7-0 but at the same time if the Bills D can stop them then its still a chance to grab the lead early and get the ball to start the 2nd half. Of course the risk is falling behind early if they defer.

Unless there’s a weather concern.. I say always defer.  Best chance to give you back to back possessions.. 1 to end the half and then to start the 3rd quarter. 

Edited October 5, 2021 by Dan

[Mat68]

4 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Here's a question. If the Bills win the coin toss do you want them to receive or not? Chance to go up 7-0 but at the same time if the Bills D can stop them then its still a chance to grab the lead early and get the ball to start the 2nd half. Of course the risk is falling behind early if they defer.

Defer every time.  Win the middle 8.  Covert Tds not fgs in the redzone.  Buffalo does that they win.  

[FilthyBeast]

4 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Here's a question. If the Bills win the coin toss do you want them to receive or not? Chance to go up 7-0 but at the same time if the Bills D can stop them then its still a chance to grab the lead early and get the ball to start the 2nd half. Of course the risk is falling behind early if they defer.

 

I would always defer no matter what.

 

Even if the Chiefs get the ball and go right down the field and score it's no secret we need to score a lot to have a chance to win this game but having the ball to start the 2nd half is critical especially since KC has been known to double dip and score at the end of the half and start of 3rd quarter if they win coin toss.

[ColoradoBills]

24 minutes ago, nucci said:

He also does the same with Allen

 

Love him or hate him he is the color commentator on the biggest weekly national game in the NFL.

His job is to praise the premier players and teams in the league.

 

I laugh about him being the Head Cheerleader of the NFL but that is what he is.

[The Wiz]

14 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Defer every time.  Win the middle 8.  Covert Tds not fgs in the redzone.  Buffalo does that they win.  

Interestingly enough, KCs defense has given up tds on 79% of opposing teams red zone visits. Let's bump that number a little higher. 

[Nineforty]

22 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Here's a question. If the Bills win the coin toss do you want them to receive or not? Chance to go up 7-0 but at the same time if the Bills D can stop them then its still a chance to grab the lead early and get the ball to start the 2nd half. Of course the risk is falling behind early if they defer.

 

I've always been hardcore about receiving the ball to start the 2nd half. And still am.

 

BUT... against KC I think there is the potential for the psychological effect of going down early. Consciously or unconsciously. But since this can't be proved and is just a feeling, I really won't care either way when it comes down to it.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[YattaOkasan]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

I can tell that by the pass attempts

?  That doesnt help.  You think Detroit wants to be a passing team?  You would think with the number of pass attempts from Goff (5th) the would want to be.  But then you look at their weapons and this stat (they are 30th) and you see they want to run the ball.  They have to pass cause they are behind so much which is why pass attempts is not a good stat for that.

Edited October 5, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[Steel City Mafia]

 

[Pete]

7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

one of the last Bills games I attended- Johnny Football threw a long TD to Josh Gordon

[LeGOATski]

Seems like a desperate move...

[K-9]

Are we taking for granted just how tough a venue Arrowhead is to play in? Has been since it was opened. Especially in prime time, nationally televised games. We’ve gone in there with better Bills teams playing lesser KC teams during the glory years and got our assess handed to us. History, while having no relevance to this game, is not kind when it comes to playing at Arrowhead. 
 

Hoping like hell for a win, but I’ll be shocked if we do. That said, the over reaction by national media and fans to a loss to KC  will be nearly insufferable. Just as it was when our SB team got blown out in KC, an October loss at Arrowhead will hardly be the defining moment of the season. 
 

I hope we can keep that in perspective. 

[LeGOATski]

14 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Are we taking for granted just how tough a venue Arrowhead is to play in? Has been since it was opened. Especially in prime time, nationally televised games. We’ve gone in there with better Bills teams playing lesser KC teams during the glory years and got our assess handed to us. History, while having no relevance to this game, is not kind when it comes to playing at Arrowhead. 
 

Hoping like hell for a win, but I’ll be shocked if we do. That said, the over reaction by national media and fans to a loss to KC  will be nearly insufferable. Just as it was when our SB team got blown out in KC, an October loss at Arrowhead will hardly be the defining moment of the season. 
 

I hope we can keep that in perspective. 

[BillsSbSoon]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

Here's a question. If the Bills win the coin toss do you want them to receive or not? Chance to go up 7-0 but at the same time if the Bills D can stop them then its still a chance to grab the lead early and get the ball to start the 2nd half. Of course the risk is falling behind early if they defer.

Defer, always

[K-9]

Just now, LeGOATski said:

Not to go all Andy Dufresne, but hope is a good thing. 

[B-Lo¹]

Bill's getting 3?? I'm taking them straight up. We owe them something!! Lets get this W

Edited October 5, 2021 by B-Lo¹

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

they do that by winning. Losing would show they're not there yet. I find it interesting some are ok with losing this game. 

 

I don't think you understand the post. No one is saying it's okay if the Bills lose. But if they're going to lose, do it in a shootout where we prove we can hang with them. If we lose the game with another underwhelming offensive showing it is going to be hard for me to care about the rest of the season. I already know we will win a lot of games and make the playoffs. I want to know that we can score on the Chiefs and at least make it a 50/50 game. If we do that, win or lose we are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. If not we're a dark horse.

Edited October 5, 2021 by HappyDays